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Highlights of interest to anyone interested in this: 1) Financial report (oddly) included billing from OCTOBER 2012 by itself, allowing the easiest calculation of subscriptions I have ever seen in a public report that was not stated. Quite simply: "The billing for The Secret World for the previous Well, given that information, and knowing that the average billing given Funcom's model is about $20 U.S. per month, the math comes easy. 1.1 million / 20 = 55000 subscribers. $20/month is because Funcom was very adamant that 30-40% of their revenue was coming from in-game shops. So the average player is paying approximately $20.00 per month. Perhaps you can massage some different billing options and the real number might be closer to $18-$19/month. Conclusion: Funcom as of October 2012 was floating 55-70k subscribers for "The Secret World". 2) The rest of the report is really pessimistic compared to normal Funcom standards. We will have difficulty remaining cash flow positive in 2013 is a pretty bold statement considering they only have 17 million dollars left. Notwithstanding a positive quarter due to the release of the game, it would be hard for anyone to think that Funcom survives if it does not accept the offer put forward to it by EA or Activision.
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11/24/12 7:16:34 AM#2
Yes the x-fire numbers activity gave me the same subscribtion number (estimated between 45 and 60k) subscribers. It is not surprising. Which is unfortunate, Funcom is or was one of the last MMORPG developer that was not afraid to bring new ideas into the genre and experiment. Clearly the financial aspect was mismanaged, I hope they'll survive and stay in shape to bring more games in the future. REALITY CHECK |
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11/24/12 11:05:45 AM#3
Originally posted by Thillian Pretty sure 60k subscripers is enough to keep a game alive :)
Hell I'd be happy if there were 10k. |1TB Black (Games, OS) |
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11/24/12 11:15:36 AM#4
Originally posted by gamesrfun I actually figured it was lower than this. I'm glad it isn't though. If I could get into the combat I would have enjoyed the game but I couldn't so I didn't. But I loved the atmosphere and the design (outside of the combat) so I hope it keeps chugging along for those who like it. |
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11/24/12 11:36:23 AM#5
Originally posted by Izork Yeh I am subscribed to TSW and AoC both atm as well. REALITY CHECK |
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11/24/12 11:53:56 AM#6
It might be enough to keep the game itself alive, but it's not enough for the company to survive. Their financial plans banked on having a lot more people. Join the League For Gamers. |
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11/24/12 12:08:18 PM#7
Originally posted by Izork
A few games have been shut down for dropping that low. E&B, for one. Really depends on their overhead, and who's in charge of shutting it down - how much they care about the game vs how much they only care about profits. I'm guessing Funcom will keep it going as long as possible, as long as EA has no say in the matter.
The thing is, even if they're able to keep it going in the black, with minimal resources devoted to it, that's dangerously close to the point where they might be better off cutting their losses, to free up all those resources, to devote to future projects. Anything that might stand a better chance of keeping the company afloat, overall. If that's even an option for them at all, anymore. When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world. |
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11/24/12 12:08:43 PM#8
Originally posted by Thillian Curious...what formula do you you to calculate the xfire numbers? I am curious for doing this myself (if you feel you'd rather not reply due to XFIRE moderation as of late, please send me a PM).
Release a game with a very large established fanbase from 10+ years of bnet history when the market was still emerging and the casual base had not yet been established, thus ripe for harvesting a momentious self perpetuating playerbase people never leave because they have X hours invested in their characters, and their friends and everyone else plays anyway. Not discounting Blizzard quality... but WoW's success is as much about perfect timing as it is quality, if not more so. - Derros |
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11/24/12 12:09:05 PM#9
well me being a lifetime sub i am ok with those numbers..it was never going to be warcraft numbers was it? also i think very soon we will see the implementation of f2p..it would really give the game a boost imo..i think there are a lot of people that have sat on the fence on this game..i think the sub fee maybe something to do with that.not to mention all those who never would have tried it will try it also if it goes f2p. any ways regardless we need funcom.they are the only guys who try a bit of creativity. |
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11/24/12 12:10:11 PM#10
They should start selling personal servers. Join the League For Gamers. |
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11/24/12 12:31:14 PM#11
Would someone leave if they remove their cash shop ? or Could they possibly get new players ?
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11/24/12 1:21:24 PM#12
I doubt the loss of income from losing the cash shop would justify the amount of players that might play with no cash shop.
If you really want to play a game a cosmetic cash shop game isn't going to stop you. |
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11/24/12 2:21:14 PM#13
Not sure why they haven't made any changes. The game sold horribly and they led people to believe that retention was good even though it's very bad.
Right now I would say they are a bit late to turn it around and it will be nearly impossible to pump out the amount of content needed to please the themepark crowd without generating any revenue. I have to say they shot themselves in the foot and wasted a pretty good game.
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11/24/12 4:22:38 PM#14
i played the beta and i would sub but the double dip payment model is kind of a turn off for me.
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11/24/12 4:51:03 PM#15
Originally posted by grimal Xfire only suggests trends. Its is 100% impossible to accurately estimate a games population with it, unless you have been following it since a known published subs report. One major reason is that the older a population is, the less likely they are to use xfire. Thats why you see games like EQ, EQ2 and to a lesser extent Rift with a lower than expected total of xfire users. |
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11/24/12 5:13:49 PM#16
[mod edit] You sound happy about it. Yes, the one game that actually tried something very different failed to capture an audience. And you seem to think this is good news. Its just a warning to companies not to try anything unique. Its not like TSW wasnt a well made game. |
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11/24/12 5:19:22 PM#17
Originally posted by strangiato2112 I'm aware of all the arguments against using Xfire (I do browse these forums afterall lol). Still, I'd be curious to know what the formula used was... Release a game with a very large established fanbase from 10+ years of bnet history when the market was still emerging and the casual base had not yet been established, thus ripe for harvesting a momentious self perpetuating playerbase people never leave because they have X hours invested in their characters, and their friends and everyone else plays anyway. Not discounting Blizzard quality... but WoW's success is as much about perfect timing as it is quality, if not more so. - Derros |
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11/24/12 5:48:14 PM#18
Originally posted by strangiato2112 where does wow double dip? the cell phone apps are free with sub now and theres not a ptw button on my UI |
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11/24/12 5:50:47 PM#19
Originally posted by zyklonian I think the prostitute mod corrupted your game files man. -elhefen |
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11/24/12 5:55:09 PM#20
Originally posted by Vhaln Funcom propably cannot afford axing TSW. Most of investment was alrady spent (main development, most of pre-releae and biggest post-release spending, server farm and other release expenses). If they still keep AO then they won't axe TSW. Further cuts in TSW development team and other costs related to game might follow though. AoC is also not closed even though game failed to take off long-term after freemium transition and is preety low populated with expception of maybe 2 servers. For those that are not aware Funcom merged further four AoC servers on 7th august 2012. Two in US: http://forums.ageofconan.com/showthread.php?t=242064 Two in EU: http://forums-eu.ageofconan.com/showthread.php?t=178296 ================================================== Besides TSW earned them 1,1 mln $ in October. If we assume that previous two months of Q3 were similar, we have total of 3,3 mln$. That's 1/3 of whole company earnings in Q3. They cannot shut it down, unless they plan on very heavy restructuring into much smaller company making low-cost f2p games. (which they partially plan to).
Still since they: "As part of the process of optimizing the revenue for the game[TSW], the Company is currently working on updating and They propably will transition to freemium model in next 6 months or which is less propable but also theoretically possible, they will start to milk existing fans more, by changing cash shop to similar what Cryptic did with STO when it flopped. Which basically mean enlarging store alot, putting many convenience items and also some advantage items or / and game gold sales. But it would make more sense from Funcom's perspective to enlarge cash shop alot AND transition to freemium would allow them to make big short term revenue boost like with AoC had in first quarter after transition.
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Also "Project A
Further strenghtening ties with EA or maybe it is some kind of Asian company? Future is looking grim for Funcom.
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