Originally posted by halflife25

Originally posted by Pivotelite

Originally posted by Volkon

Interestingly enough... according to XFire, Guild Wars 2 now has about 75% of the population (6852/9087) as WoW does. If you believe the "10 million players" (or whatever the current number is), that implies over seven million GW2 players now.

 I'll never believe that 10 million players nonsense. Random accounts subscribed on their parents credit cards still and chinese farmers don't count as players.

And why shouldn't they count? as long as accounts are active why does it matter if it is chinese farmers or younglings playign on their parents credit cards?

The reason the Chinese are questionable as subscribers is the model they use over there, those time cards they purchase and play for pennies for hours. They don't even have to buy MoP, they get it for free, play a couple hours for a few cents and count as a subscription for WoW. That's why some tend to not consider the subscription number to be honest or accurate.

So, if you do think they count, then you also must think GW2 is up around 7 plus million players now?

Originally posted by bcbully

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by bcbully
In 2 weeks GW2 will fall below Minecraft and diablo 3. A week after that it will fall below Starcraft, Arma 2, and Swtor, if this trend continues on Xfire. 

We have crossed this bridge many times - Xfire numbers are useless as it is a measure of Xfire users NOT All GW2 players.

A lot of smart people came up with this thing called "Math" a long long time ago. The amazing thing is, it still works today.

I have no idea why GW2 failing has become such a deep rooted obsession with you but I feel the need to point out that Xfire is only correct when it correlates with rest of the data available. 

AoC - Declining server population, declining popularity, declining Xfire stats 

GW2 - Steady server population, steady popularity, declining Xfire stats

See a difference here? If you refuse to take in all variables you are only setting yourself up for failure. Check around the web, all indicators show that GW2 is extremely popular with a hefty player base. The only thing you can find to indicate any kind of decline is a single variable with no collaborating evidence and it's sad because even the Xfire numbers show that  it is doing extremely well. Yet you are trying to take this as a sign of doom lol. 

School has started back and people have chilled on the all day every day level of playing which happens with all newly released MMO's. It will spike again durring the halloween event, expansions, etc. 

Does this spell doom? With sites like this showing the level of popularity far exceeding other MMO's that would be a resounding no lol. 

Originally posted by Volkon

Originally posted by bcbully
In 2 weeks GW2 will fall below Minecraft and diablo 3. A week after that it will fall below Starcraft, Arma 2, and Swtor, if this trend continues on Xfire. 

 

You seem to like using XFire as a reliable source as to the state of games. Well, let's do that... let's make the false assumption that XFire is somehow factually relevant and see what it tells us.

 

World of Warcraft. 9087 players, and the graph shows the standard surge in player time after release followed by the inevitable decent in hours played. If you look at the more recent dots, the decent is beginning to accellerate. 45,567 hours played averages to a current 5 hours per day per player.

 

Guild Wars 2. 6852 players and the graph following the same trend (over a longer period of time) as the WoW one above, but it's beginning to slowly flatten out instead of accellerate. 25071 hours played averages to a bit over three and a half hours per day per player.

 

Interestingly enough... according to XFire, Guild Wars 2 now has about 75% of the population (6852/9087) as WoW does. If you believe the "10 million players" (or whatever the current number is), that implies over seven million GW2 players now.

 

So, what does this tell us? Not a damned thing, to be honest.

 

 

I agree with everything you said here except the orange.

1. This is the anomaly. For some reason GW2 has more players using per copy sold than nearly all other games. I still don't know why. 

2. That disporportionately high number 6852 has fallen by nearly 35% in just the last 2 weeks. However you can't use Xfire predict population. None of the information given can say X game has Z players. That's using it wrong. What you can do is show a trend in population.

3. Well what it tells us is that GW2 has been losing 6k - 10k  hours played per week along with about 1000 users per week. and if the trend continues that it's hours played will fall below Swtor in about 3 weeks.

Take it how you will, maybe GW2 has found away to defy the numbers, idk.  

Originally posted by halflife25

Originally posted by Pivotelite

Originally posted by Volkon

Interestingly enough... according to XFire, Guild Wars 2 now has about 75% of the population (6852/9087) as WoW does. If you believe the "10 million players" (or whatever the current number is), that implies over seven million GW2 players now.

 I'll never believe that 10 million players nonsense. Random accounts subscribed on their parents credit cards still and chinese farmers don't count as players.

And why shouldn't they count? as long as accounts are active why does it matter if it is chinese farmers or younglings playign on their parents credit cards?

is X-Fire in Asia ?

if not WoW will drop at 2-3 millions players..

Originally posted by Volkon

Originally posted by halflife25

Originally posted by Pivotelite

Originally posted by Volkon

Interestingly enough... according to XFire, Guild Wars 2 now has about 75% of the population (6852/9087) as WoW does. If you believe the "10 million players" (or whatever the current number is), that implies over seven million GW2 players now.

 I'll never believe that 10 million players nonsense. Random accounts subscribed on their parents credit cards still and chinese farmers don't count as players.

And why shouldn't they count? as long as accounts are active why does it matter if it is chinese farmers or younglings playign on their parents credit cards?

 

The reason the Chinese are questionable as subscribers is the model they use over there, those time cards they purchase and play for pennies for hours. They don't even have to buy MoP, they get it for free, play a couple hours for a few cents and count as a subscription for WoW. That's why some tend to not consider the subscription number to be honest or accurate.

 

So, if you do think they count, then you also must think GW2 is up around 7 plus million players now?

He is using 'chinese farmers' as a jab and assuming that all chinese subscribers are gold farmers. This is gross generalisation. Unless you are also assumign that all those million of chinese are actually 'farmers'.

Yes chinese pay by hour and it is not something exclusive only to WOW. This is how government run things over there. When GW2 releases in China (which i am assumign would be soon)  feel free to count the sub base as you like.

Originally posted by bcbully

Originally posted by Volkon

Originally posted by bcbully
In 2 weeks GW2 will fall below Minecraft and diablo 3. A week after that it will fall below Starcraft, Arma 2, and Swtor, if this trend continues on Xfire. 

 

You seem to like using XFire as a reliable source as to the state of games. Well, let's do that... let's make the false assumption that XFire is somehow factually relevant and see what it tells us.

 

World of Warcraft. 9087 players, and the graph shows the standard surge in player time after release followed by the inevitable decent in hours played. If you look at the more recent dots, the decent is beginning to accellerate. 45,567 hours played averages to a current 5 hours per day per player.

 

Guild Wars 2. 6852 players and the graph following the same trend (over a longer period of time) as the WoW one above, but it's beginning to slowly flatten out instead of accellerate. 25071 hours played averages to a bit over three and a half hours per day per player.

 

Interestingly enough... according to XFire, Guild Wars 2 now has about 75% of the population (6852/9087) as WoW does. If you believe the "10 million players" (or whatever the current number is), that implies over seven million GW2 players now.

 

So, what does this tell us? Not a damned thing, to be honest.

 

 

I agree with everything you said here except the orange.

1. This is the anomaly. For some reason GW2 has more players using per copy sold than nearly all other games. I still don't know why. 

2. That disporportionately high number 6852 has fallen by nearly 35% in just the last 2 weeks. However you can't use Xfire predict population. None of the information given can say X game has Z players. That's using it wrong. What you can do is show a trend in population.

3. Well what it tells us is that GW2 has been losing 6k - 10k  hours played per week along with about 1000 users per week. and if the trend continues that it's hours played will fall below Swtor in about 3 weeks.

 

Take it how you will, maybe GW2 has found away to defy the numbers, idk.  

See... that's something I personally have an issue with regarding XFire. Cherry-picking numbers that seem to support an argument and disregarding those that don't fit. I'm getting the impression that you're saying that the hours total number is relevant because it supports your case, a decrease in players is relevant because it supports your case, yet the hours per player numbers (which show the populace settling into a post-surge pattern) aren't relevant and the population number itself isn't relevant because of how it matches up against WoW. I have a hard time accepting that, that parts are valid while other parts aren't, and so selectively as well. This is why I believe XFire is a poor indicator of actual events. You can't disregard the hours per player and accept the total hours... they're related. You must consider the credibility of the numbers as a whole with regards to population comparisons. If the WoW numbers are reflective of, say, NA users only (assumption being that the Chinese market, of which the vast majority play in internet cafe style settings and won't have XFire running), we could be looking at a WoW population of closer to four to five million players. In that case, a relative number of three plus million players for GW2 may actually be more accurate.

XFire tells us too little to be relevant, that's the ultimate point I'm trying to reach.

Originally posted by Volkon

Originally posted by bcbully
In 2 weeks GW2 will fall below Minecraft and diablo 3. A week after that it will fall below Starcraft, Arma 2, and Swtor, if this trend continues on Xfire. 

 

You seem to like using XFire as a reliable source as to the state of games. Well, let's do that... let's make the false assumption that XFire is somehow factually relevant and see what it tells us.

 

World of Warcraft. 9087 players, and the graph shows the standard surge in player time after release followed by the inevitable decent in hours played. If you look at the more recent dots, the decent is beginning to accellerate. 45,567 hours played averages to a current 5 hours per day per player.

 

Guild Wars 2. 6852 players and the graph following the same trend (over a longer period of time) as the WoW one above, but it's beginning to slowly flatten out instead of accellerate. 25071 hours played averages to a bit over three and a half hours per day per player.

 

Interestingly enough... according to XFire, Guild Wars 2 now has about 75% of the population (6852/9087) as WoW does. If you believe the "10 million players" (or whatever the current number is), that implies over seven million GW2 players now.

 

So, what does this tell us? Not a damned thing, to be honest.

Didn't GW2 sell roughly 75% as many copies as MoP did in the US/EU?  Isn't XFire mainly a US/EU tool?

I'd say those numbers are reasonable when you consider US/EU only.

Nice try though!
 

Originally posted by FrodoFragins

Originally posted by Volkon

Originally posted by bcbully
In 2 weeks GW2 will fall below Minecraft and diablo 3. A week after that it will fall below Starcraft, Arma 2, and Swtor, if this trend continues on Xfire. 

 

You seem to like using XFire as a reliable source as to the state of games. Well, let's do that... let's make the false assumption that XFire is somehow factually relevant and see what it tells us.

 

World of Warcraft. 9087 players, and the graph shows the standard surge in player time after release followed by the inevitable decent in hours played. If you look at the more recent dots, the decent is beginning to accellerate. 45,567 hours played averages to a current 5 hours per day per player.

 

Guild Wars 2. 6852 players and the graph following the same trend (over a longer period of time) as the WoW one above, but it's beginning to slowly flatten out instead of accellerate. 25071 hours played averages to a bit over three and a half hours per day per player.

 

Interestingly enough... according to XFire, Guild Wars 2 now has about 75% of the population (6852/9087) as WoW does. If you believe the "10 million players" (or whatever the current number is), that implies over seven million GW2 players now.

 

So, what does this tell us? Not a damned thing, to be honest.

Didn't GW2 sell roughly 75% as many copies as MoP did in the US/EU?  Isn't XFire mainly a US/EU tool?

 

I'd say those numbers are reasonable when you consider US/EU only.

 

Nice try though!
 

WoW =/= MoP, not everyone who plays WoW bought it. Those numbers are for all players, not just MoP owners.

Originally posted by FrodoFragins

Originally posted by Volkon

Originally posted by bcbully
In 2 weeks GW2 will fall below Minecraft and diablo 3. A week after that it will fall below Starcraft, Arma 2, and Swtor, if this trend continues on Xfire. 

 

You seem to like using XFire as a reliable source as to the state of games. Well, let's do that... let's make the false assumption that XFire is somehow factually relevant and see what it tells us.

 

World of Warcraft. 9087 players, and the graph shows the standard surge in player time after release followed by the inevitable decent in hours played. If you look at the more recent dots, the decent is beginning to accellerate. 45,567 hours played averages to a current 5 hours per day per player.

 

Guild Wars 2. 6852 players and the graph following the same trend (over a longer period of time) as the WoW one above, but it's beginning to slowly flatten out instead of accellerate. 25071 hours played averages to a bit over three and a half hours per day per player.

 

Interestingly enough... according to XFire, Guild Wars 2 now has about 75% of the population (6852/9087) as WoW does. If you believe the "10 million players" (or whatever the current number is), that implies over seven million GW2 players now.

 

So, what does this tell us? Not a damned thing, to be honest.

Didn't GW2 sell roughly 75% as many copies as MoP did in the US/EU?  Isn't XFire mainly a US/EU tool?

 

I'd say those numbers are reasonable when you consider US/EU only.

 

Nice try though!
 

I'm not sure to be honest. Do we have an actual count of MoP sales for US/EU? I do suspect, as I posted above, that it may be a US/EU thing as you suggest as well. If so... there's also the implication that WoW numbers are way down in the US/EU region and that GW2 has already reached 75% of the total WoW population in what... six weeks?

Again... I think XFire tells us too little relevant information to be a reliable indicator of what's happening in a game.

Originally posted by Volkon

Originally posted by bcbully

Originally posted by Volkon

Originally posted by bcbully
In 2 weeks GW2 will fall below Minecraft and diablo 3. A week after that it will fall below Starcraft, Arma 2, and Swtor, if this trend continues on Xfire. 

 

You seem to like using XFire as a reliable source as to the state of games. Well, let's do that... let's make the false assumption that XFire is somehow factually relevant and see what it tells us.

 

World of Warcraft. 9087 players, and the graph shows the standard surge in player time after release followed by the inevitable decent in hours played. If you look at the more recent dots, the decent is beginning to accellerate. 45,567 hours played averages to a current 5 hours per day per player.

 

Guild Wars 2. 6852 players and the graph following the same trend (over a longer period of time) as the WoW one above, but it's beginning to slowly flatten out instead of accellerate. 25071 hours played averages to a bit over three and a half hours per day per player.

 

Interestingly enough... according to XFire, Guild Wars 2 now has about 75% of the population (6852/9087) as WoW does. If you believe the "10 million players" (or whatever the current number is), that implies over seven million GW2 players now.

 

So, what does this tell us? Not a damned thing, to be honest.

 

 

I agree with everything you said here except the orange.

1. This is the anomaly. For some reason GW2 has more players using per copy sold than nearly all other games. I still don't know why. 

2. That disporportionately high number 6852 has fallen by nearly 35% in just the last 2 weeks. However you can't use Xfire predict population. None of the information given can say X game has Z players. That's using it wrong. What you can do is show a trend in population.

3. Well what it tells us is that GW2 has been losing 6k - 10k  hours played per week along with about 1000 users per week. and if the trend continues that it's hours played will fall below Swtor in about 3 weeks.

 

Take it how you will, maybe GW2 has found away to defy the numbers, idk.  

 

See... that's something I personally have an issue with regarding XFire. Cherry-picking numbers that seem to support an argument and disregarding those that don't fit. I'm getting the impression that you're saying that the hours total number is relevant because it supports your case, a decrease in players is relevant because it supports your case, yet the hours per player numbers (which show the populace settling into a post-surge pattern) aren't relevant and the population number itself isn't relevant because of how it matches up against WoW. I have a hard time accepting that, that parts are valid while other parts aren't, and so selectively as well. This is why I believe XFire is a poor indicator of actual events. You can't disregard the hours per player and accept the total hours... they're related. You must consider the credibility of the numbers as a whole with regards to population comparisons. If the WoW numbers are reflective of, say, NA users only (assumption being that the Chinese market, of which the vast majority play in internet cafe style settings and won't have XFire running), we could be looking at a WoW population of closer to four to five million players. In that case, a relative number of three plus million players for GW2 may actually be more accurate.

 

XFire tells us too little to be relevant, that's the ultimate point I'm trying to reach.

It only gives the number of players using that play, and how long they play. That's it.

The hours per play is relevant, just not to a population trend. It shows that GW2 players play about half the time of mmorpgs that came before it. One poster said that's because there is no prep time in GW2 you just hop on and go. Being that that is the only explaination I've seen for this anomaly, it's the best answer.  

The population number is relevent aswell, when compared to other mmos with a know population. I would say blizzard is lying about their numbers (I do think they are slightly inflated), but when I looked at swtor at it's peak of 80k hours played it only had 1/2 the number of GW2 users aswell. I not going to reach and say something funny is going on, but maybe GW2 players like using Xfire more than players of other games.

Originally posted by bcbully

 

It only gives the number of players using that play, and how long they play. That's it.

 

The hours per play is relevant, just not to a population trend. It shows that GW2 players play about half the time of mmorpgs that came before it. One poster said that's because there is no prep time in GW2 you just hop on and go. Being that that is the only explaination I've seen for this anomaly, it's the best answer.  

 

The population number is relevent aswell, when compared to other mmos with a know population. I would say blizzard is lying about their numbers (I do think they are slightly inflated), but when I looked at swtor at it's peak of 80k hours played it only had 1/2 the number of GW2 users aswell. I not going to reach and say something funny is going on, but maybe GW2 players like using Xfire more than players of other games.

 

 

The "no prep time" argument... I can see that as being relevant, sure. I remember from my WoW days those days between raids doing dialies, dungeon runs (when there was still that piece of gear I needed to upgrade), gathering materials to make ammo for the raid (engineer on my pally tank, also a raid hunter), lots of stuff to prepare for "raid days". The hardest choices I have now are simply what to do today, and it's not due to a lack of choice but rather due to a variety of choices and no arbitrary requirements put upon me by others. That makes sense for at least a part of the reason.

I'd question the "more GW2 users" using XFire... to me that doesn't make sense. XFire offers absolutely nothing to GW2 or to MMO users as a whole from what I've seen. That's why I uninstalled it. Resources lost, nothing gained.

But... XFire summation: GW2 has 75% of the users of WoW, and they play on average 1 1/2 hours per day less.

I really don't think XFire is a reliable source for what's happening in the games.

---

Originally posted by bcbully
It only gives the number of players using that play, and how long they play. That's it.

The hours per play is relevant, just not to a population trend. It shows that GW2 players play about half the time of mmorpgs that came before it. One poster said that's because there is no prep time in GW2 you just hop on and go. Being that that is the only explaination I've seen for this anomaly, it's the best answer.  

The population number is relevent aswell, when compared to other mmos with a know population. I would say blizzard is lying about their numbers (I do think they are slightly inflated), but when I looked at swtor at it's peak of 80k hours played it only had 1/2 the number of GW2 users aswell. I not going to reach and say something funny is going on, but maybe GW2 players like using Xfire more than players of other games.

---

So many people in this thread who know nothing about statistics. 

How to correctly "read" xfire: GW2 started with 15k users there and is now at 6.8k (and still falling), which is a 55% drop. Therefore we can safely assume that if it sold 2.5 million, right now less than 1.2 mil are still active (and it will be less than 1 mil in about 2-3 weeks).

Alot of EU ploayer migrated to USA servers, but even on EU primetime the servers are loaded.

Another troll in disguise thread ?

Originally posted by boxsnd

So many people in this thread who know nothing about statistics. 

 

How to correctly "read" xfire: GW2 started with 15k users there and is now at 6.8k (and still falling), which is a 55% drop. Therefore we can safely assume that if it sold 2.5 million, right now less than 1.2 mil are still active (and it will be less than 1 mil in about 2-3 weeks).

Sure it will... 0.o