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Guild Wars 2

Guild Wars 2 

General Discussion  » Official Xfire Topic - Population is declining

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70 posts found
  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7007

9/28/12 7:46:09 AM#41
Originally posted by NBlitz

Déjà vu like woah. The same Xfire topics, with the same arguments used by both sides for the past few years ever since discovering this website in 2008. No big launch since has been spared.

Who's lined up next?

Who has been correct? Xfire number supporters or Xfire number deniers?

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

9/28/12 7:46:19 AM#42
Originally posted by stevebmbsqd
I don't understand why people are surprised that the numbers are dropping. I mean of course they were higher at launch and it has no where to go but down. Besides that, it is a themepark without any real gear treadmill or what some consider "endgame". Did you honestly think that most PVE players would keep playing the DE's over and over? These people will move on to other games when they have had their fill of the content and come back for a little bit when there is something new. I believe this is what ANET intended. That would explain them not adding more servers at launch when everything was overloaded.

Except for the fact that they added six additional servers and increased the capacity of all servers to accomodate more people, in additional to halting sales for a period of time as well.

 

There's something people are forgetting... ANet want's/needs people to keep playing to help boost cash shop sales. One attraction that we'll see periodically to keep people staying (or at least coming back often) is/are holiday events. Halloween is legendary in GW1, expect no less in GW2 with additional costumes available for purchase and likely other specialty items. Heck, seven years later I was still logging into GW1 for holiday events.

Oderint, dum metuant.

  Jackdog

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/19/04
Posts: 6294

9/28/12 7:48:39 AM#43
Originally posted by sumdumguy1
Still trying to figure out how Xfire can determine success or failure for any game or current data which represents any significant information.  Its a tool that gives some data and shows a potential correlation.  The biggest problems are several variables that can't be accounted for and the incredbily low number of GW2 players who use Xfire.  There has been research which shows that Xfire has an average of about 3% users in many of the recent most popular games at release.  How is such a low percentage representive of the entire population?  Also with such a low percentage, how can xfire be considered viable when it doesn't meet any minimum  criteria for an accurate representation of any game?   Common sense tells us numbers will die off after one month for any game.  Does this define success or failure?  How many times have those same numbers been wrong or even come back with a second life or surge?  At this pointt there are to many failed criteria IMO to use xfire for any viable correlational data on games.

and how can a sample of 1000 voters represent which way a election in a country of 311,000,000 go..gee I guess all those pollsters liek Gallup etc are just scam artists. :::double facepalm boggle :::

I miss DAoC

  Sentime

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/10/06
Posts: 277

9/28/12 7:49:59 AM#44

You dont need xfire to see a steady decline in people playing GW2 and a steady increase of bots playing GW2.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10417

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

9/28/12 7:54:04 AM#45


Originally posted by Sentime
You dont need xfire to see a steady decline in people playing GW2 and a steady increase of bots playing GW2.


It's also pretty standard in any game, regardless of type, that more people will play the first day than the thirtieth day.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7007

9/28/12 7:54:37 AM#46
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by GrayGhost79
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by bcbully

I'm wondering when it will bottem out. 

 

GW2 is losing 10k hours per week. Sounds silly, but at this rate it will fall behind SWTOR in about 3 weeks. 

 

I'm still wondering why there is such a  high disportionate amount of GW2 xfire user too.

 

 

 

Can't say for others, but my hours/day has levelled off somewhat to a more... sane... number than what they were shortly after release. Aside from simply not being able to keep up release-pace, other things are creeping in, such as my kids getting more homework from school now etc. I'm not using XFire now, so those numbers won't be reflected there, but I suspect that since the number of hours is decreasing much faster than the number of XFire users playing there's a good chance I'm not the only one who's still active, enjoying the game immensely and simply putting in less hours/day.

it's just strange that GW2 has as many users as a game with a reported 9 million users, that would mean GW2 players only play a fraction of the time WoWs player play.

Well yeah, I mean what do you expect from a game that has more setup/prep time needed. I mean you'll spend more time setting up/prepairing than you will actually spend doing the content you're prepaired for lol. I'm pretty sure FFXI would have more hours per player as well... but of course we are counting the hours spent looking for party. 

I would not worry about hours per user, the interesting trend is that of users per day.

I want to agreed another 300 lost from yesterday to today. I still haven't seen that number proven though. On the surface it makes since.

 

I do agree the number of users proven or not seems to hold more weight than hours played ;) Still strange that GW2 has nearly 4 times the xfire users that it should have, compared to the other mmos, but the play half as much. One poster said "prep time" It's a good answer lol. Better than any other thus fair atleast :p

  Naral

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/07/10
Posts: 750

9/28/12 7:56:15 AM#47
Xfire does not mean squat to me. That said, anecdotally, I know a lot of people in my guild and friends who are no longer logging in, just because the game is stale to them. I am having fun, but I am pretty casual. GW2 seems to fall right into line with every other MMORPG released in the last few years.  In three months after release I expect the servers will need some merging to remain healthy.
  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7007

9/28/12 7:56:49 AM#48
Originally posted by Sentime

You dont need xfire to see a steady decline in people playing GW2 and a steady increase of bots playing GW2.

Wow! eer wait...  bots don't use Xfire -_- almost got me there or do they -_^ lol

  User Deleted
9/28/12 7:59:03 AM#49
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by NBlitz

Déjà vu like woah. The same Xfire topics, with the same arguments used by both sides for the past few years ever since discovering this website in 2008. No big launch since has been spared.

Who's lined up next?

Who has been correct? Xfire number supporters or Xfire number deniers?

The former.

There was even a huge ass thread about this. exact. debate over SWTOR back in...whenever, some time early this year.

 

Oh ye faithful, keep debating over Xfire. Imma wait over there.

  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7007

9/28/12 7:59:22 AM#50
Originally posted by Naral
Xfire does not mean squat to me. That said, anecdotally, I know a lot of people in my guild and friends who are no longer logging in, just because the game is stale to them. I am having fun, but I am pretty casual. GW2 seems to fall right into line with every other MMORPG released in the last few years.  In three months after release I expect the servers will need some merging to remain healthy.

If it continues to lose 10k hours played per week, I think it will need sooner than that. Right now Swtor is licking it's chops looking at this slide.

  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7007

9/28/12 8:04:37 AM#51
Originally posted by NBlitz
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by NBlitz

Déjà vu like woah. The same Xfire topics, with the same arguments used by both sides for the past few years ever since discovering this website in 2008. No big launch since has been spared.

Who's lined up next?

Who has been correct? Xfire number supporters or Xfire number deniers?

The former.

There was even a huge ass thread about this. exact. debate over SWTOR back in...whenever, some time early this year.

 

Oh ye faithful, keep debating over Xfire. Imma wait over there.

I like your style ;)

  GrayGhost79

Novice Member

Joined: 8/30/08
Posts: 4888

9/28/12 8:05:31 AM#52
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by GrayGhost79
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by bcbully

I'm wondering when it will bottem out. 

 

GW2 is losing 10k hours per week. Sounds silly, but at this rate it will fall behind SWTOR in about 3 weeks. 

 

I'm still wondering why there is such a  high disportionate amount of GW2 xfire user too.

 

 

 

Can't say for others, but my hours/day has levelled off somewhat to a more... sane... number than what they were shortly after release. Aside from simply not being able to keep up release-pace, other things are creeping in, such as my kids getting more homework from school now etc. I'm not using XFire now, so those numbers won't be reflected there, but I suspect that since the number of hours is decreasing much faster than the number of XFire users playing there's a good chance I'm not the only one who's still active, enjoying the game immensely and simply putting in less hours/day.

it's just strange that GW2 has as many users as a game with a reported 9 million users, that would mean GW2 players only play a fraction of the time WoWs player play.

Well yeah, I mean what do you expect from a game that has more setup/prep time needed. I mean you'll spend more time setting up/prepairing than you will actually spend doing the content you're prepaired for lol. I'm pretty sure FFXI would have more hours per player as well... but of course we are counting the hours spent looking for party. 

I would not worry about hours per user, the interesting trend is that of users per day.

I want to agreed another 300 lost from yesterday to today. I still haven't seen that number proven though. On the surface it makes since.

 

I do agree the number of users proven or not seems to hold more weight than hours played ;) Still strange that GW2 has nearly 4 times the xfire users that it should have, compared to the other mmos, but the play half as much. One poster said "prep time" It's a good answer lol. Better than any other thus fair atleast :p

If you honestly break down most MMO's and look at it you spend most of your time preping for content. 

FFXI - You spend the bulk of your time lfg to level, then when you get to endgame you spend most of your time farming so you can join in the endgame activities. 

WoW - You run dungeons over and over to get gear so that you can go on raids, when it's time to go on the raid you don't simply run in then either theres even more prep that needs to be done. 

DarkFall - you prepare for a siege before declaring it, then you spend a lot of time waiting for the siege to start all the while prepairing lol. 

What MMO can you think of that doesn't have you spend a considerable amount of time prepairing to do content? GW2 you jump in, do the content, then your back out. 2 hours of play time actually equals 2 hours of play time. 

  Loktofeit

Elite Member

Joined: 1/13/10
Posts: 11900

Currently playing EVE, SMITE, Wildstar, and Combat Arms

9/28/12 8:06:31 AM#53
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by NBlitz

Déjà vu like woah. The same Xfire topics, with the same arguments used by both sides for the past few years ever since discovering this website in 2008. No big launch since has been spared.

Who's lined up next?

Who has been correct? Xfire number supporters or Xfire number deniers?

Supporters are right for the wrong reasons. Yes, after the first month, the amount of time spent logged in and the frequency of logging in drops. While there can be decline, this does not indicate decline as it is the natural pattern of player behaviour for every popular video game on every platform ever released. Ever.

For a sub MMO, a much more valid assessment - not to say XFire is a total authority here - would be to compare numbers on days 30, 35*, 90, 95*, 180 and 360. Since GW2 isn't sub based, comparing monthly data over the course of six months or a year would offer far greater insight. In either case, claiming the population is declining during Week 5 of an MMO is a sophmoric display of a lack of understanding of the available data or even history itself.

 

*to account for lapsing/cancellation of 30-day and 3-month subs.

  ktanner3

Master

Joined: 3/19/06
Posts: 4143

Trolls will be ignored

9/28/12 8:06:57 AM#54
Originally posted by NBlitz

Déjà vu like woah. The same Xfire topics, with the same arguments used by both sides for the past few years ever since discovering this website in 2008. No big launch since has been spared.

Who's lined up next?

And they're usually started and kept going by people who hate themeparks and want everyone else to share in their misery. Some people just can't stand to see others enjoying games that they don't like. 

Currently Playing: Star Wars The Old Republic

  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7007

9/28/12 8:14:59 AM#55
Originally posted by Loktofeit
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by NBlitz

Déjà vu like woah. The same Xfire topics, with the same arguments used by both sides for the past few years ever since discovering this website in 2008. No big launch since has been spared.

Who's lined up next?

Who has been correct? Xfire number supporters or Xfire number deniers?

Supporters are right for the wrong reasons. Yes, after the first month, the amount of time spent logged in and the frequency of logging in drops. While there can be decline, this does not indicate decline as it is the natural pattern of player behaviour for every popular video game on every platform ever released. Ever.

For a sub MMO, a much more valid assessment - not to say XFire is a total authority here - would be to compare numbers on days 30, 35*, 90, 95*, 180 and 360. Since GW2 isn't sub based, comparing monthly data over the course of six months or a year would offer far greater insight. In either case, claiming the population is declining during Week 5 of an MMO is a sophmoric display of a lack of understanding of the available data or even history itself.

 

*to account for lapsing/cancellation of 30-day and 3-month subs.

Agreed for the most part, I don't think we need 6 months to see a trend though. I do think GW2 needs to bottom out to get a stronger corralation between hours and players. 

 

Can I get a smart person with a niffty application to overlay GW2s graph with RIFT, SWTOR and TSW's graphs please?! It would be neat to compare first month slides.

  ShakyMo

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/21/11
Posts: 7246

9/28/12 8:17:44 AM#56
I'm playing less hours than i was, because I'm also playing TL2. Gw2 isn't the same as wow clones, I don't have to worry about being behind the gear curve and having no one to group with, I don't have to worry about getting my moneys worth for a sub.
  Loktofeit

Elite Member

Joined: 1/13/10
Posts: 11900

Currently playing EVE, SMITE, Wildstar, and Combat Arms

9/28/12 8:18:03 AM#57
Originally posted by bcbully

Can I get a smart person with a niffty application to overlay GW2s graph with RIFT, SWTOR and TSW's graphs please?! It would be neat to compare first month slides.

That's not a bad idea. I would also include LOTRO in that, and the two overlays i would do:

- the first six months of each game after their release

- the past six months

  ShakyMo

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/21/11
Posts: 7246

9/28/12 8:20:24 AM#58
Bully:

You seriously believe gw2 is dropping faster than Swtor?

That's some bloody excellent LSD there son.
  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7007

9/28/12 8:24:14 AM#59
Originally posted by ShakyMo
Bully:

You seriously believe gw2 is dropping faster than Swtor?

That's some bloody excellent LSD there son.

I did not say that....

 

To be fair though, it did seem like swtor's drop came at about the 2 month period. The cliff came at 3, from what I remember. So is it within the realm of speculation that GW2 atm is sliding faster than swtor during the same time frame? Yes, I think it is. I wouldn't make that claim though.

 

Just show me the overlay!

 

edit - here is an article talking about swtor's one month xfire numbers. We all know what happened soon after ;)

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-03-03-star-wars-the-old-republic-could-secure-1m-long-term-subscribers

"DFC, which conducted the study in conjunction with Xfire, tracked game usage data from the launch of the MMO on December 20, 2011 through February 20, 2012 and also surveyed over 4,000 Xfire users in January 2012. Based on this data, DFC believes that Star Wars can indeed reach over one million long-term paying subscribers (defined as a subscriber that pays for over six months)."

 

No graph though..

  User Deleted
9/28/12 8:45:11 AM#60

Since they cant go free 2 play then what can they do ?

drop box prize ? maybe even make it completely free?

add weapons and armors to cash shop ?

lower gold gain for people who play and lower  other drop rates so they use cash shop more ?

or what?

 

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