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General Discussion  » Official Xfire Topic - Population is declining

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70 posts found
  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

9/28/12 7:12:21 AM#21
Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
Originally posted by Loke666

There are actually several threads about it.

The problem is that the first 2 weeks players generally play any new MMO more. Heck, I called in sick myself and played 8-12 hours a day the first week but I just cant keep that up.

So to be fair you really shouldnt count the first 2 week of any game, TOR, GW2, MOP or whatever. The real trend starts after that and it will take you at least 3 months to get a fair curve for a game.

Just look on TOR and you talked about, if you would have predicted how the game would do after 6 weeks you could more or less guess anything if you ignored the first 2 weeeks. After 3 months on the other hand you could see where things were going.

And that goes for every game, 3 months is minimum to get a good stat since Xfire have a rather small sample of the players and not a random one either. Comparing GW2s numbers with Wows, TORs or any others is not really working at all since Xfire is more useful in some games than others. You can easily prove that by taking 5 MMOs with known sub numbers and control the numbers with the Xfire numbers, some games are just over represented.

And I funny enough wrote about the same post a month after TORs release, Xfire is good for seeing long term trends in a MMO, but short term or comparing other games is close to guessing.

I would wager that Xfire is not that useful in a MMO.

Additionally subscriptions is a different measure than actively playing every day.

If you just log in WoW 2 nights a week you still need to pay a monthly fee.

More, while I think Xfire is not a representative sample of gamers daily habits, I seriously doubt that a certain game, especially one of the top 5-10 MMOs, is over represented in Xfire.

We look at the list of the games most played and we look at the number of players of each of those games and I don't see any obvious outlier there.

Now, I don't think GW2 population is equivalent to WoW Global population, but GW2 pop vs WoW Western population I think Xfire is probably a fair representation of it.

 

And has someone pointed out, without comparasion between games ofthe same genres we can't really distinguish between Xfire population decrease or game population decrease.

 

I will tell the GW2fanboi/XFire deniers exactly the same thing as I told the SWTORfanbois repeatedly.

You cannot use XFire to extrapolate subscriber/user numbers with any accuracy at all. What XFire is useful for is to monitor a trend in population in a game over a decent period of time.

The first few weeks will start off very high as people log in daily, this will then settle down as people log in in their usual patterns. If you record the figures daily for 3 months like we did with SWTOR you will have a good idea of what is happening. In the SWTOR thread it was amusing hearing the squeals of denial of the Fanbois as the evidence mounted up.

  Pratt2112

Elite Member

Joined: 2/12/12
Posts: 1164

9/28/12 7:13:13 AM#22
Originally posted by zimboy69
Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

If we going to add stats, add these as well:

At GW2 launch: GW2  95K hours 14K players - WoW 25K hours 5K players.

At WoW MoP launch: WoW 10K players 60K hours GW2 35K hours 9K players.

 

i dont know if these numbers are correct  but if they are it sure dont look good for wow

 

 

I know right? I mean WoW is only an 8 year-old game with around 10 million paying players. Blizzard must really be hurting.

Cue eyeroll.

 

"Devs need to stop trying to make MMOs for people who don't like MMOs" - thevampirelematt/Reddit

  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7209

9/28/12 7:14:07 AM#23
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by bcbully

I'm wondering when it will bottem out. 

 

GW2 is losing 10k hours per week. Sounds silly, but at this rate it will fall behind SWTOR in about 3 weeks. 

 

I'm still wondering why there is such a  high disportionate amount of GW2 xfire user too.

 

 

 

Can't say for others, but my hours/day has levelled off somewhat to a more... sane... number than what they were shortly after release. Aside from simply not being able to keep up release-pace, other things are creeping in, such as my kids getting more homework from school now etc. I'm not using XFire now, so those numbers won't be reflected there, but I suspect that since the number of hours is decreasing much faster than the number of XFire users playing there's a good chance I'm not the only one who's still active, enjoying the game immensely and simply putting in less hours/day.

it's just strange that GW2 has as many users as a game with a reported 9 million users, that would mean GW2 players only play a fraction of the time WoWs player play.

When I eat chocolate chip pie it just doesn't feel like chocolate chip cookies. The texture, the consistency, it's just not the same and this is disappointing.

  halflife25

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/13/12
Posts: 787

9/28/12 7:16:07 AM#24
Originally posted by zimboy69
Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

If we going to add stats, add these as well:

At GW2 launch: GW2  95K hours 14K players - WoW 25K hours 5K players.

At WoW MoP launch: WoW 10K players 60K hours GW2 35K hours 9K players.

 

i dont know if these numbers are correct  but if they are it sure dont look good for wow

 

 

*eye roll*

  GrayGhost79

Novice Member

Joined: 8/30/08
Posts: 4888

9/28/12 7:18:15 AM#25
Originally posted by Volkon
After about a week into GW2 I can honestly say that I uninstalled XFire. I downloaded it initially to, and I admit it, help boost GW2s numbers there, but I basically found no value in having resources eaten up by XFire for no real gain. I stopped using it, then uninstalled it. I still don't see what value it has, maybe someone can enlighten me as to what the real purpose behind XFire is?

Xfire is more for the Co-Op and FPS gamers. It offers a form of fraps, VC, and friends list, etc. Typically it doesn't serve much of any purpose for MMO players. We have friend lists in game, usually we have our own VC such as Ventrillo, Teamspeak, Mumble, etc. Most of us use Fraps or a similar free program. 

In the MMO space there is little to no point in having Xfire which is why I continue to say (Even when numbers favor my game of choice) That Xfire stats are meaningless. The only thing they show is trends for those type of players that use Xfire which again aren't generally MMO players. 

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

9/28/12 7:20:18 AM#26
Originally posted by GrayGhost79
Originally posted by Volkon
After about a week into GW2 I can honestly say that I uninstalled XFire. I downloaded it initially to, and I admit it, help boost GW2s numbers there, but I basically found no value in having resources eaten up by XFire for no real gain. I stopped using it, then uninstalled it. I still don't see what value it has, maybe someone can enlighten me as to what the real purpose behind XFire is?

Xfire is more for the Co-Op and FPS gamers. It offers a form of fraps, VC, and friends list, etc. Typically it doesn't serve much of any purpose for MMO players. We have friend lists in game, usually we have our own VC such as Ventrillo, Teamspeak, Mumble, etc. Most of us use Fraps or a similar free program. 

In the MMO space there is little to no point in having Xfire which is why I continue to say (Even when numbers favor my game of choice) That Xfire stats are meaningless. The only thing they show is trends for those type of players that use Xfire which again aren't generally MMO players. 

It is a sample, like any poll

  GrayGhost79

Novice Member

Joined: 8/30/08
Posts: 4888

9/28/12 7:21:44 AM#27
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by bcbully

I'm wondering when it will bottem out. 

 

GW2 is losing 10k hours per week. Sounds silly, but at this rate it will fall behind SWTOR in about 3 weeks. 

 

I'm still wondering why there is such a  high disportionate amount of GW2 xfire user too.

 

 

 

Can't say for others, but my hours/day has levelled off somewhat to a more... sane... number than what they were shortly after release. Aside from simply not being able to keep up release-pace, other things are creeping in, such as my kids getting more homework from school now etc. I'm not using XFire now, so those numbers won't be reflected there, but I suspect that since the number of hours is decreasing much faster than the number of XFire users playing there's a good chance I'm not the only one who's still active, enjoying the game immensely and simply putting in less hours/day.

it's just strange that GW2 has as many users as a game with a reported 9 million users, that would mean GW2 players only play a fraction of the time WoWs player play.

Well yeah, I mean what do you expect from a game that has more setup/prep time needed. I mean you'll spend more time setting up/prepairing than you will actually spend doing the content you're prepaired for lol. I'm pretty sure FFXI would have more hours per player as well... but of course we are counting the hours spent looking for party. 

  GrayGhost79

Novice Member

Joined: 8/30/08
Posts: 4888

9/28/12 7:23:16 AM#28
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by GrayGhost79
Originally posted by Volkon
After about a week into GW2 I can honestly say that I uninstalled XFire. I downloaded it initially to, and I admit it, help boost GW2s numbers there, but I basically found no value in having resources eaten up by XFire for no real gain. I stopped using it, then uninstalled it. I still don't see what value it has, maybe someone can enlighten me as to what the real purpose behind XFire is?

Xfire is more for the Co-Op and FPS gamers. It offers a form of fraps, VC, and friends list, etc. Typically it doesn't serve much of any purpose for MMO players. We have friend lists in game, usually we have our own VC such as Ventrillo, Teamspeak, Mumble, etc. Most of us use Fraps or a similar free program. 

In the MMO space there is little to no point in having Xfire which is why I continue to say (Even when numbers favor my game of choice) That Xfire stats are meaningless. The only thing they show is trends for those type of players that use Xfire which again aren't generally MMO players. 

It is a sample, like any poll

Of a specific group which makes it not a sample. It's like polling only people in Atlanta trying to find out which Football team is more popular. 

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

9/28/12 7:24:33 AM#29
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by bcbully

I'm wondering when it will bottem out. 

 

GW2 is losing 10k hours per week. Sounds silly, but at this rate it will fall behind SWTOR in about 3 weeks. 

 

I'm still wondering why there is such a  high disportionate amount of GW2 xfire user too.

 

 

 

Can't say for others, but my hours/day has levelled off somewhat to a more... sane... number than what they were shortly after release. Aside from simply not being able to keep up release-pace, other things are creeping in, such as my kids getting more homework from school now etc. I'm not using XFire now, so those numbers won't be reflected there, but I suspect that since the number of hours is decreasing much faster than the number of XFire users playing there's a good chance I'm not the only one who's still active, enjoying the game immensely and simply putting in less hours/day.

it's just strange that GW2 has as many users as a game with a reported 9 million users, that would mean GW2 players only play a fraction of the time WoWs player play.

Oh, right, right... I see what you mean. I wonder if this article could help explain what we're seeing...

 

Sales of the World of Warcraft: Mists of Pandaria expansion have been disappointing, according to investment bank Lazard Capital Markets. The fourth expansion for Blizzard Entertainment’s massively popular online game has sold between 600,000 and 700,000 copies at retail since its launch earlier this week, Lazard estimates.

 

Oderint, dum metuant.

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

9/28/12 7:25:02 AM#30
Originally posted by GrayGhost79
Originally posted by bcbully
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by bcbully

I'm wondering when it will bottem out. 

 

GW2 is losing 10k hours per week. Sounds silly, but at this rate it will fall behind SWTOR in about 3 weeks. 

 

I'm still wondering why there is such a  high disportionate amount of GW2 xfire user too.

 

 

 

Can't say for others, but my hours/day has levelled off somewhat to a more... sane... number than what they were shortly after release. Aside from simply not being able to keep up release-pace, other things are creeping in, such as my kids getting more homework from school now etc. I'm not using XFire now, so those numbers won't be reflected there, but I suspect that since the number of hours is decreasing much faster than the number of XFire users playing there's a good chance I'm not the only one who's still active, enjoying the game immensely and simply putting in less hours/day.

it's just strange that GW2 has as many users as a game with a reported 9 million users, that would mean GW2 players only play a fraction of the time WoWs player play.

Well yeah, I mean what do you expect from a game that has more setup/prep time needed. I mean you'll spend more time setting up/prepairing than you will actually spend doing the content you're prepaired for lol. I'm pretty sure FFXI would have more hours per player as well... but of course we are counting the hours spent looking for party. 

I would not worry about hours per user, the interesting trend is that of users per day.

  Thane

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/14/03
Posts: 1868

I'm a leaf on the wind. Watch how I soar.

9/28/12 7:26:50 AM#31

so, just curious...

there are like a million or more sold copies, 14k people of those play on xfire...

 

why do you guys keep bring up some niche stats?

 

 

i'd say they uninstalled xfire.

 

"I'll never grow up, never grow up, never grow up! Not me!"

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

9/28/12 7:27:02 AM#32
Originally posted by GrayGhost79
Originally posted by Volkon
After about a week into GW2 I can honestly say that I uninstalled XFire. I downloaded it initially to, and I admit it, help boost GW2s numbers there, but I basically found no value in having resources eaten up by XFire for no real gain. I stopped using it, then uninstalled it. I still don't see what value it has, maybe someone can enlighten me as to what the real purpose behind XFire is?

Xfire is more for the Co-Op and FPS gamers. It offers a form of fraps, VC, and friends list, etc. Typically it doesn't serve much of any purpose for MMO players. We have friend lists in game, usually we have our own VC such as Ventrillo, Teamspeak, Mumble, etc. Most of us use Fraps or a similar free program. 

In the MMO space there is little to no point in having Xfire which is why I continue to say (Even when numbers favor my game of choice) That Xfire stats are meaningless. The only thing they show is trends for those type of players that use Xfire which again aren't generally MMO players. 

Ah, gotcha, thanks Gray. Basically whatever functionality XFire has to offer is effectively redundant in the MMO world then, which would explain what I thought I was seeing. Much appreciated.

Oderint, dum metuant.

  Dragonantis

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/16/10
Posts: 970

9/28/12 7:28:28 AM#33
Add the fact that most people actually dont use Xfire.
  Slampig

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/29/03
Posts: 2388

Whatever you do, do NOT speak ill of Asheron's Call 2...

9/28/12 7:32:29 AM#34
Originally posted by korrabis
I generally lof out of xfire when playing Guild Wars 2 because I don't want to be bothered while I play. I generally leave it up when I play other games because I don't mind getting distracted since I'm not as into them. So measuring xfire population really doesn't mean much in my opinion. Be prepared for people to rip you, if you read the other xfire threads you know you just started a big argument.  lol

That's convenient...

That Guild Wars 2 login screen knocked up my wife. Must be the second coming!

  User Deleted
9/28/12 7:34:44 AM#35

Déjà vu like woah. The same Xfire topics, with the same arguments used by both sides for the past few years ever since discovering this website in 2008. No big launch since has been spared.

Who's lined up next?

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

9/28/12 7:36:27 AM#36
Originally posted by Thane

so, just curious...

there are like a million or more sold copies, 14k people of those play on xfire...

 

why do you guys keep bring up some niche stats?

 

 

i'd say they uninstalled xfire.

 

1.4% is statistically a very healthy number, political polls will use far less numbers for a far larger population.

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

9/28/12 7:37:02 AM#37
Originally posted by Dragonantis
Add the fact that most people actually dont use Xfire.

That is irrelevant.

  stevebmbsqd

Novice Member

Joined: 9/26/09
Posts: 457

"Evolution thru Revolution"

9/28/12 7:37:46 AM#38
I don't understand why people are surprised that the numbers are dropping. I mean of course they were higher at launch and it has no where to go but down. Besides that, it is a themepark without any real gear treadmill or what some consider "endgame". Did you honestly think that most PVE players would keep playing the DE's over and over? These people will move on to other games when they have had their fill of the content and come back for a little bit when there is something new. I believe this is what ANET intended. That would explain them not adding more servers at launch when everything was overloaded.
  Jackdog

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/19/04
Posts: 6372

9/28/12 7:42:15 AM#39
Originally posted by Monorojo

Hey all, I remember a lot of GW2 fans posting a xfire topic on swtor board. Well I searched this forum I found it odd that there wasn't a topic for this game regarding xfire!?!

Well here is the Guild Wars 2 page on xfire

 

http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

 

As you can see, game is experiencing a steady decline in players and playing time. I will keep track of the decline here to raise awareness about the games health.

 

At launch (last week of August) - GW2 had about 14,000 players.

September 27th - Players: 9,063

 

You are all welcome to join me in the discussion :)

well lets look  at some other games also, since you seem to be interested in SWToR lets see what it has done..hmmm 4500 last week of August and 2900 now , gee a drop of 36%. Not really surprising , my best freind is stil a subscriber and has all the Republic toons maxxed and 2 of the Imps. I asked him yesterday, don't running the same dailies every day get old...a long period of silence before he admitted that they did., Now how about Aion,  it dropped from 4300 to 3200 a drop of 26%, EvE 2900 to 2600. WoW just released a expansion and supposidly the patch ate it's XFire numbers at the same time GW 2 launched, what a coincidence huh LOL . Those figures are just round figures of course and comparing the last tuesday in August to last wednesday.

Might want to retitle your thread to Official XFire topic, MMO figures have declined since school started or something like that

 

I miss DAoC

  sumdumguy1

Hard Core Member

Joined: 2/20/11
Posts: 693

9/28/12 7:44:58 AM#40
Still trying to figure out how Xfire can determine success or failure for any game or current data which represents any significant information.  Its a tool that gives some data and shows a potential correlation.  The biggest problems are several variables that can't be accounted for and the incredbily low number of GW2 players who use Xfire.  There has been research which shows that Xfire has an average of about 3% users in many of the recent most popular games at release.  How is such a low percentage representive of the entire population?  Also with such a low percentage, how can xfire be considered viable when it doesn't meet any minimum  criteria for an accurate representation of any game?   Common sense tells us numbers will die off after one month for any game.  Does this define success or failure?  How many times have those same numbers been wrong or even come back with a second life or surge?  At this pointt there are to many failed criteria IMO to use xfire for any viable correlational data on games.
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