As much as I hate this Xfire debate, I have a thought:

Xfire users are semihardcore to hardcore (have to be, to give a crap about Xfire enough to actually use it).

Following that, they're far more jaded than average casual gamres (the majority of WoW population) and therefore much more likely to NOT play WoW. So if anything, the actual numbers favour WoW even more than Xfire suggests.

Faults with my logic?

One question: how do these analysts know how many boxes were sold?

I know they said "estimate", bu that could mean anything. One thing it means FOR SURE, though, is that nobody counted the actual boxes sold.

Originally posted by Zylaxx
Another indicator is the 2 gamestops in my area didnt have a midnight relese for MOP se party either.  Just another sign at the dismal acceptance of the latest expansion.

There was a huge launch event streamed live, they linked to different cities to see what was going on, talking to devs and so on http://us.blizzard.com/en-us/company/events/mists-of-pandaria-launch.html#event:summary

Originally posted by Warband

Originally posted by VengeSunsoar

Originally posted by Warband

Originally posted by VengeSunsoar

Originally posted by Warband

Originally posted by VengeSunsoar

Originally posted by Warband

Originally posted by VengeSunsoar

Originally posted by Warband

 

Umm no you look into current data to see if it can be validated, or not. If you make a scientific discovery you don't ignore it and says it false until someone else proves it. You look into it yourself to see if the data is correct/useable. You don't disregard something unless that data is empirically anomalous and has been proven as such over several instances/experiments. You don't disregard it when you have nothing else to compare it to. At that point it's simply raw data waiting to be analysed.

Also facts and case studies my friend your talking like your an authority without substanticanting yourself I hate when people do that, I'm a mathematician and engineer, if you want me to substiant myself ask me, but you should also do the same. Either do it or stop acting as if your an authority.

Looking into the data until it can be validated is exactly what I said.  The data should be ignored, as in not used in any research whatsoever until it can be validated. 

If you make a scientific discovery one of the first things you do is try and replicate it over and over and over and over and over again.  That is how you obtain reliability.  Many discoveries have bene discredited because others were unable to replicate the phenomenon. 

If there is nothing else to compare it to, there is no way to verify the data.  So once again you don't use it until there is something to compare it with.

Great, your a mathematician and an engineer.  I'm a physiotherapist, currently working on a PhD/MD  in Rehabilitative science at UBC.  Does that make us feel better.  Of course everyone here will think both of us are taking out our asses.

We've both taken stats classes and research classes.  You should know that until data is verified and replicated you don't dare use it in research. 

Basic principles

1. Collect the data being as methodical as possible in Qualititave research and as random as possible in descriptive research.

2.  Verify the data through comparison and replication. 

X-fire has done part of #1 but there are real questions on it's validity as it pertains to a games population. The data cannot be compared to the games population to get that margin of error and trends because the games don't release the stats.  Therefore there is nothing to compare it to, so we cant' get trends or margins of error, and we cannot verify it's representation. Therefore making any conclusion on it's validy is false at worse, and premature at best. 

This leaves us at a dead end. 

 Lol I see u didn't read what i said, I don't care what your title or degree is that shit can be lied or made up, the only way for to substantiate whether you actually have any background knowledge on this subject is through facts and case studies relevant to this discussion. Which should be fairly easy considering your education. It's fairly easy to determine if someone actually has revelant command over a subject through that.

 

I'm still waiting.

I read what you stated.  And I have stated the questions that need to be answered. 

Don't kid yourself, getting that information would not be easy unless the game developers released the information willingly - which so far they haven't. 

 All we need is those two questions answered, and all this x-fire crap and be put to rest. 

 Concession accepted you can't substiante shit (most probably). I was talking about a simple statistical case study on modelling a non ideal representation source in comparison to the accurate mean. Basically anything remotely similar to this situation.

This is not about Xfire being right or not it's a bullshit arguement that'll never really be resolved due to lack of information. What I care about is supposed armchair analysts that plague these threads pretending to be an authority (with degree's to boot) and not substiating crap. I'm trying to determine whether your talking out of your ass with basic high school knowledge or whether you actually know what your talking about.

Wait, What? 

Did you read what you just wrote?

You want me to find a study discussing the validty or reliablity of a non-ideal represnation of a population?  You want me to find a study that shows why a non-ideal representation is an inaccurate marker of a population? 

Come on guy.  Use some logic.  It's right there in the word.  It's non-ideal.

Take a research class.

It's Textbook.  Literally textbook.  Year one stats and reseach design.  Do a google search explaining why a non-ideal population is invalid to make inferences about a population. 

I'll explain it slowly

A... non-ideal... representation... is... not... valid... because... it... is... not... a... good... representation... of... a... populaton.

Sampling a Population

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Deathenger

Last I checked xfire, they still havent recovered from the loss of players when GW2 released even after MoP.

 I dont think that article can really accuratly represent digital sales from the WoW main site so I'm sure its much higher than that. On active subscribers alone, even if they only sold MoP to half their subscribers it should still outsell GW2

WOW is back up to the #2 spot on Xfire, and hours played is almost double of GW2

 That's true. GW2 is steadily declining in the charts and MoP just jumped up with launch. It does seem they're significanly below what was normal activity before SWTOR, TSW and GW2 came out though. It's quite possible that a lot of players are passing up on the panda expansion. Still, let's give it some more time, it's too soon to tell, but long term they're probably going down in numbers as well, and this is the MoP release peak.

No skin of my back though, the players will decide how good or bad it is.

This seems an ill contrast compared to the stories about the older expacs, people would line up at midnight for their copy, even for Cat, despite their not even needing to.

Even with electronic sales excluded, I think it's fair to say that WoW is now officially in decline.

Nothing to be ashamed of; it was inevitable, and it's been a good run.  Fun was had, and no doubt money was made.  But nothing lasts forever.

Far as the GW2 vs. WoW argument goes, that's a dumb argument, anyway.  This isn't football; WoW doesn't have to lose for GW2 to win, or vice versa.  Nor does one losing mean that the other is winning.  They're both games.  I bought GW2, and while I skipped out on MoP, Blizzard has gotten a share of my money in the past and it was well earned.

WoW fanboys will be screaming digital sales digital sales digital sales, but the truth is out there.

I bought TBC + WotLK at our local gameshop at midnight, there was no midnight release that alone should give us an indication of less and less pre-orders to warent a nighly sale.

offcourse in some major city with 10 million people living in it a store might open up for a midnight release.

Thing is within a year more and more people jump of the bandwagon and drop wow, people dont forget they had to wait 10 long months without any decent contend updates.
They wont forget the promise Blizzard made about faster contend updates.
They see the server lists getting more empty and empty
They see less and less friends online
They see how blizzard is grabbing all the moneh they can get and milk out the cow before its dried up

4 hours queue at some servers and 80% of the others servers are I AM LEGEND.
People flock to the most populated servers making a snowball effect.

MoP itself focusing on a young audiance instead of their players who supported wow since launch.
Not to mention the old developers left WoW since WotLK for Project Titan and letting an ignorant idiot named Ghostcrawler in the lead.

So many bad turns lead to decline, i would have still played and payed if it wasnt for Cataclysm or cute Pandalands.
GW2 has similar style of graphics, much better but still similar so it aint realy the age of WoW whats cuasing mass decline.

Around 3.5 / 4 million people lost interests in WoW since WotLK.

I doubt it is that bad.  Most people probably just using digital download.  Which isn't available in previous expansion.

The serious answer is there is alot of people still subscribed to wow.  Why would they keep subscribing if they arn't buying expansion. 

Wait for the real number of sale come out.  Or wait for Blizzard's financial report, they have to release their subscriber number.

Its the information we are not getting that clearly shows sales are not meeting their expectations.
If Blizzard broke a new record or would have sold slightly better then Cataclysm it would be all over the net by offical statements.

Its the information that shows us MoP is not doing realy well, we would have known if it would do awesome.

But to each his own belief offcourse :)

Originally posted by Mothanos

Its the information we are not getting that clearly shows sales are not meeting their expectations.
If Blizzard broke a new record or would have sold slightly better then Cataclysm it would be all over the net by offical statements.

Its the information that shows us MoP is not doing realy well, we would have known if it would do awesome.

But to each his own belief offcourse :)

For CATA Blizzard released official numbers after 6 days of release. You guys really need to relax.

First of all, 11 million subscribers doesn't mean 11 million people are playing MoP... it just means there are 11 million people playing some flavor of WoW. 

As for MoPs success or lack thereof... a quicker litmus is to survey random guilds on random servers and check the levels of the players.  I've found very few people leveling beyond 85 per guild... so unless everyone rerolled a level 1 toon for the expansion, most of the players aren't playing MoP.

Compared to Cataclysm, it is a stark drop off.  The mere fact that players are willing to wait a few months to pick up MoP says volumes.  All in all, it's a "meh" expansion to the masses... hence the heavy advertising by Blizzard... they know their sales are down from Cataclysm.

Originally posted by energized

I never post on the forums this might be my 3rd post in 6 years.

 

I had to say that your link was the most stupidest shit i have ever read.  600k-700k sales in 2 DAYS of MOP versus 3.3 million copies since Dec 2010 for Cataclysm = MOP not doing well? WTF hahaha stupid link.

Not you I repeat I am not calling you stupid or cussing at you. Just had to clear that up.

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Originally posted by Sephros
[mod edit]

That's just not as fun I guess!

Originally posted by wolffin

The fourth expansion for Blizzard Entertainment’s massively popular online game has sold between 600,000 and 700,000 copies at retail since its launch earlier this week, Lazard estimates.
Read more at http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/27/world-of-warcraft-mists-of-pandaria-performance-disappointing/#ZivfOz2qSZMIYOuz.99

"at retail" thats not counting digital sales

I lol'ed , still laughing

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Deathenger

Last I checked xfire, they still havent recovered from the loss of players when GW2 released even after MoP.

 

I dont think that article can really accuratly represent digital sales from the WoW main site so I'm sure its much higher than that. On active subscribers alone, even if they only sold MoP to half their subscribers it should still outsell GW2

WOW is back up to the #2 spot on Xfire, and hours played is almost double of GW2

with a 8 year old game with 5-6mil west players  against a 3week game of 2.2mil players u dont need to know maths to know wich game one will top Xfire...fail post is simply fail

Originally posted by wowclones

Originally posted by wolffin

The fourth expansion for Blizzard Entertainment’s massively popular online game has sold between 600,000 and 700,000 copies at retail since its launch earlier this week, Lazard estimates.
Read more at http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/27/world-of-warcraft-mists-of-pandaria-performance-disappointing/#ZivfOz2qSZMIYOuz.99

"at retail" thats not counting digital sales

I lol'ed , still laughing

still doesnt change the fact that MoP is a failure compared to other blizzard EXP sales 

Originally posted by ShenjShimpo

Originally posted by wowclones

Originally posted by wolffin

The fourth expansion for Blizzard Entertainment’s massively popular online game has sold between 600,000 and 700,000 copies at retail since its launch earlier this week, Lazard estimates.
Read more at http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/27/world-of-warcraft-mists-of-pandaria-performance-disappointing/#ZivfOz2qSZMIYOuz.99

"at retail" thats not counting digital sales

I lol'ed , still laughing

still doesnt change the fact that MoP is a failure compared to other blizzard EXP sales 

 Just becuase something does not sell as well as another does not make it a failure.  It is a failure if it didn't meet expectations, and then it only failed to meet expectations, overall it may still be a successfull sale. 

We know they hoped to sell more than the other expansions, what game company wouldn't.  But we also know they had declining subs.  It was probably not their expectation to actually outsell the previous expansions.