I hate this type of logic...

"I have seen several games that folks were excited about become failures after release, therefore GW2 must be the same."

NO!  That logic makes no sense.  If I were Gdemami I would say it's logical induction or something.

What criteria are we using to judge success or failure? Is it amount of server space used? Current active players? Monetary success?

If it's monetary, then you can't judge the success of this game based on subs, so you'd have to go by cash shop numbers. According to the hardcore fans on this site, there's not a single thing in the cash shop that anyone needs to buy. If the hardcore fans don't think there's anything worth it, then I'm betting most casual player spending will be limited at best, and it will be declared a failure relatively quickly.

If we're going off of it's current active players to measure success, I don't think it'll be for awhile. I think the game itself will be fun enough to keep players actively engaged for some time to come.

Originally posted by winter

Originally posted by ariboersma

Originally posted by Valua

Originally posted by Mahavishnu

By the masses? Never, because the 'masses' will have lots of fun playing the game!

 False.

since just about everything you say is pretty much the complete opposite of reality ill take this as a true. 

 i'd also have to agree with False as the original statement seem rather fanboious and lacking in any real grounding in reality. everything gets old after awhile, and GW2 has no more content then most MMO's on release. those last many people on average 2-3 month at most.  GW2 does do a few things duifferently but if you think people are gonna play month on end the same DE's or WVWVW vs nameless facelss factionless openents then we'd have todisagree.

  So far GW2 has yet to even show that the "Masses" love it or that it has staying power. While i don't play WoW and would certainly never get MoP just to be a panda or play pokemon lets use WoW's somewhat subjective number of 10 million subscribers as the masses. When GW2 has sold 10 million compies then we can clam GW2 is the game for the masses. (also don't forget being a game of mass appeal does not make it good in everyones eyes. ie WoW)

   When people are still claiming they will be playing GW2 for years to come as thier only MMO after 3 months of play, as many Fans currently  proclaim then we will know it has staying power.

  In the meantime GW2 fans should be getting ready to plan tonights early start unstead of hitting every other MMO's forum to put every other game down like they've been doing for the last several months, and yes if you get sucked into a GW2 bait thread like this one you have no one to blame but yourself

err you mean how other game forums folks have been here.. look at the threads for proof on that. You also need to understand the history Valua has here.

Box sales are what will determine success. Just like in Diablo 3. If GW2 can reach the level of success of D3 (10 million box sales) Anet should be extremely happy.

My guess is 3 or 4 months max...

Aparently this is something like a key number btw cost - benefit for fast money grab games

Originally posted by Badaboom

Originally posted by Derpybird

Originally posted by ariboersma

Originally posted by Derpybird

I agree that Trion delivers the goods and is the only current developer that justifies, at least to me, a subscription fee.

The thing is, I don't know if ANet will in fact deliver on their promise of evolving PvE gameplay. If I go based on whether or not they have lived up to their manifesto I would say that it looks promising.

So I would NOT place ANet in that category of companies that have utterly failed at updates, unless they in fact prove over the next 3-6 months that they utterly fail at updates.

I dunno about that almost all of their "content" is holidays and I do not consider dailies and free mounts content.

“We have a live team of designers and artists and gameplay programmers who are going to be flying over the game constantly, dropping content everywhere” Johanson says. “Our goal is that every time you make a new character, you might go back through a map that you played six months ago and you’re going to find completely different content.” New content, he says, will be spread across the whole game rather than concentrated in specific areas. As this happens, the events already in place will be altered to accommodate it.

“You run around Queensdale, the human starter area, and maybe the Brood Mother shows up every X minutes,” Johanson continues. “We’re going to put another event that can happen there, and then slow down how often the Brood Mother happens. Not only are there new events happening, but everything you’ve seen before starts happening less often. The world gets larger and larger. Three years from now, if someone makes a brand new character in the game, a place that has 100 events in it might have 300 by then.”

[tears well up], sniff...That was beautiful.

 Heard the same story before in many MMO's it didn't work out very well in GW1 and since Arenet  will need to sell content to keep in business I'm rather doubtfull how overflowing the game will be with free content adds, or even how often they will add paid for content (GW1 was less then 1 expansion a year at best.) but time will tell.

Originally posted by winter

Originally posted by Badaboom

Originally posted by Derpybird

Originally posted by ariboersma

Originally posted by Derpybird

I agree that Trion delivers the goods and is the only current developer that justifies, at least to me, a subscription fee.

The thing is, I don't know if ANet will in fact deliver on their promise of evolving PvE gameplay. If I go based on whether or not they have lived up to their manifesto I would say that it looks promising.

So I would NOT place ANet in that category of companies that have utterly failed at updates, unless they in fact prove over the next 3-6 months that they utterly fail at updates.

I dunno about that almost all of their "content" is holidays and I do not consider dailies and free mounts content.

“We have a live team of designers and artists and gameplay programmers who are going to be flying over the game constantly, dropping content everywhere” Johanson says. “Our goal is that every time you make a new character, you might go back through a map that you played six months ago and you’re going to find completely different content.” New content, he says, will be spread across the whole game rather than concentrated in specific areas. As this happens, the events already in place will be altered to accommodate it.

“You run around Queensdale, the human starter area, and maybe the Brood Mother shows up every X minutes,” Johanson continues. “We’re going to put another event that can happen there, and then slow down how often the Brood Mother happens. Not only are there new events happening, but everything you’ve seen before starts happening less often. The world gets larger and larger. Three years from now, if someone makes a brand new character in the game, a place that has 100 events in it might have 300 by then.”

[tears well up], sniff...That was beautiful.

 Heard the same story before in many MMO's it didn't work out very well in GW1 and since Arenet  will need to sell content to keep in business I'm rather doubtfull how overflowing the game will be with free content adds, or even how often they will add paid for content (GW1 was less then 1 expansion a year at best.) but time will tell.

Big difference this time around is microtransactions are normal now. LoL is an excellent example. 

Originally posted by winter

Originally posted by ariboersma

Originally posted by Valua

Originally posted by Mahavishnu

By the masses? Never, because the 'masses' will have lots of fun playing the game!

 False.

since just about everything you say is pretty much the complete opposite of reality ill take this as a true. 

 i'd also have to agree with False as the original statement seem rather fanboious and lacking in any real grounding in reality. everything gets old after awhile, and GW2 has no more content then most MMO's on release. those last many people on average 2-3 month at most.  GW2 does do a few things duifferently but if you think people are gonna play month on end the same DE's or WVWVW vs nameless facelss factionless openents then we'd have todisagree.

  So far GW2 has yet to even show that the "Masses" love it or that it has staying power. While i don't play WoW and would certainly never get MoP just to be a panda or play pokemon lets use WoW's somewhat subjective number of 10 million subscribers as the masses. When GW2 has sold 10 million compies then we can clam GW2 is the game for the masses. (also don't forget being a game of mass appeal does not make it good in everyones eyes. ie WoW)

   When people are still claiming they will be playing GW2 for years to come as thier only MMO after 3 months of play, as many Fans currently  proclaim then we will know it has staying power.

  In the meantime GW2 fans should be getting ready to plan tonights early start unstead of hitting every other MMO's forum to put every other game down like they've been doing for the last several months, and yes if you get sucked into a GW2 bait thread like this one you have no one to blame but yourself

All your info about WoW is completely false. WoW doesnt sell 10 million copies each expansion, the most it has sold is 5.5m.

People in china dont buy the game they rent it and they also arent suscribers, they buy game time that can be used at any time they want. Blizzard also gets a minuscule amount of money out of them because of the publisher there in china.

WoW isnt the jjugernaut people think it is. It is still pretty big  but not that big.

I personally think 5.5m copies by march of the next year is pretty doable by guild wars 2.

Originally posted by Praetalus
Not gonna touch this one with a 10' pole ... Lol

Or, a 6' Swede.

Originally posted by Creslin321

I hate this type of logic...

"I have seen several games that folks were excited about become failures after release, therefore GW2 must be the same."

NO!  That logic makes no sense.  If I were Gdemami I would say it's logical induction or something.

 It makes perfect sense logiclly. Iits just something you don't want to hear.

 ie everything dies. No different in MMO terms the question is when. Look back and pretty mush evey game ever release has had fans proclaiming it the savior of the human race, that will deliver the world from evil and last for all time. So far even the best (WoW subjectively speaking in terms of numbers) is dying.

  The best one can do is enjoy the games we like while they are around, because time moves on and in time GW2 will be no more then GW1 is now. (success/failure you decide but not a major player in most eyes these days) To expect otherwise is folly.

I say next month....

in 2017 when GW3 comes out! 

End.

Originally posted by winter

Originally posted by Creslin321

I hate this type of logic...

"I have seen several games that folks were excited about become failures after release, therefore GW2 must be the same."

NO!  That logic makes no sense.  If I were Gdemami I would say it's logical induction or something.

 It makes perfect sense logiclly. Iits just something you don't want to hear.

 ie everything dies. No different in MMO terms the question is when. Look back and pretty mush evey game ever release has had fans proclaiming it the savior of the human race, that will deliver the world from evil and last for all time. So far even the best (WoW subjectively speaking in terms of numbers) is dying.

  The best one can do is enjoy the games we like while they are around, because time moves on and in time GW2 will be no more then GW1 is now. (success/failure you decide but not a major player in most eyes these days) To expect otherwise is folly.

 

 

 

 

This has nothing to do with the topic that is being discussed. While the time of many games has passed that doesn't make them failures or bad games. As long as the people who played those games at the time enjoyed them. It's also the reason why tons of people have fond memories from DAoC, EQ, vanilla WoW, GW1, L2 and a ton of other games.

Originally posted by winter

Originally posted by Badaboom

Originally posted by Derpybird

“We have a live team of designers and artists and gameplay programmers who are going to be flying over the game constantly, dropping content everywhere” Johanson says. “Our goal is that every time you make a new character, you might go back through a map that you played six months ago and you’re going to find completely different content.” New content, he says, will be spread across the whole game rather than concentrated in specific areas. As this happens, the events already in place will be altered to accommodate it.

“You run around Queensdale, the human starter area, and maybe the Brood Mother shows up every X minutes,” Johanson continues. “We’re going to put another event that can happen there, and then slow down how often the Brood Mother happens. Not only are there new events happening, but everything you’ve seen before starts happening less often. The world gets larger and larger. Three years from now, if someone makes a brand new character in the game, a place that has 100 events in it might have 300 by then.”

[tears well up], sniff...That was beautiful.

 Heard the same story before in many MMO's it didn't work out very well in GW1 and since Arenet  will need to sell content to keep in business I'm rather doubtfull how overflowing the game will be with free content adds, or even how often they will add paid for content (GW1 was less then 1 expansion a year at best.) but time will tell.

Of course they are going to sell expansions. The last that I read was an average of 1 per year.

I do not see the sales of expansions, with new zones, new classes, new races etc is in any way antithetical to the work done by the post-launch content delivery team.

Keeping people playing is necessary to the creation of a sustained revenue stream (the cash shop). You keep people playing by having new and interesting content.

Originally posted by Misaris
My guess is 24 hours after launch, when the rose tinted glasses reveal another medieval fantasy MMO starring cartoon critters, defending villages from attacking bears the 362th time?

What does 24 hours have to do with anything? I have 100+ by now and my "rose tinted glasses" as you put it have shown no sign of coming off. Oh and most of them were spent in one single zone (lvl 1 - 15). I can't wait to go back to it again.

While you might be sick of the things you listed, it doesn't mean the rest of us are.

Honest question for the people saying it will be a failure... what will be your measuring stick for that?  I mean since there's no subscription we can't go by that, and I doubt Anet will announce something like number of active accounts (ones that logged in during the last X weeks/months).  I'm sure they'll announce revenue from the game periodically but that's not any kind of indication of how many people play.

The only thing I can come up with is number of copies sold.  Or is there some other method I'm missing?