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Guild Wars 2

Guild Wars 2 

General Discussion  » GW2 Sales Estimates - 1st Month / 1st Year

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110 posts found
  gessekai332

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/31/07
Posts: 833

8/23/12 10:25:44 AM#81
2 mil at first month is a safe and conservative bet.

Most memorable games: AoC(Tryanny PvP), RIFT, GW, GW2, Ragnarok Online, Aion, FFXI, FFXIV, Secret World, League of Legends (Silver II rank)

  Atibra

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/19/05
Posts: 65

8/23/12 10:31:31 AM#82

WoW, at it's PEAK had about 2.5 Mil U.S. Players, 3.5 Mil EU Players and 6 Mil Asia Players.

 

So - anyone predicting 5 mil is incredibly off, as you're assuming GW2 at launch will capture pretty much the majority of the MMO market.  Also, GW2 is not launching in China - where the majority of the 6 Mil Asia Players came from.  We may see a number of Korean players adopt the game, but nowhere near the 6 mil mark.

 

I'd guess the population spread to be closer to (and this is being very optimistic):

1 Million from U.S.

1.3 Million from Europe

..and MAYBE, if the Korean players pick it up, you'll see approx. 1 Mil from Asia

 

  Sovrath

Elite Member

Joined: 1/06/05
Posts: 16939

8/23/12 10:31:37 AM#83
Originally posted by Mykai

I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

 

1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

1st Year:  15 Million Copies

 

These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release.  Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.

probably not.

  Morv

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/03
Posts: 334

8/23/12 10:32:40 AM#84
We need a poll.
  Kreedz

Novice Member

Joined: 5/11/11
Posts: 445

8/23/12 10:41:23 AM#85

It's already Amazon's best selling game.

"The problem with quotes from the Internet is that it's almost impossible to validate their authenticity." - Abraham Lincoln

  SuprGamerX

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/05/09
Posts: 538

8/23/12 10:47:38 AM#86

 Who cares about box sales?  Look at D3 , 50 million box sales and no one is playing anymore?   

Only thing that needs to concern GW2 is the ammount of players still active after the 1st month. They can sale 2 billion copies of GW2 if they wanted , but if after the 1st month only 3K are remaining , then the game failed miserably.

  sammandar

Novice Member

Joined: 8/03/12
Posts: 531

8/23/12 10:50:14 AM#87
Originally posted by Atibra

WoW, at it's PEAK had about 2.5 Mil U.S. Players, 3.5 Mil EU Players and 6 Mil Asia Players.

So - anyone predicting 5 mil is incredibly off, as you're assuming GW2 at launch will capture pretty much the majority of the MMO market.  Also, GW2 is not launching in China - where the majority of the 6 Mil Asia Players came from.  We may see a number of Korean players adopt the game, but nowhere near the 6 mil mark.

I'd guess the population spread to be closer to (and this is being very optimistic):

1 Million from U.S.

1.3 Million from Europe

..and MAYBE, if the Korean players pick it up, you'll see approx. 1 Mil from Asia

I would say that within its first year (Aug 2013) these will be the GW2 numbers:

1.5 - 2 million in NA

2.5 - 3 million in EU

500k - 1 million worldwide playing in either NA or EU servers

If I'm not mistaken, I don't think GW2 is currently available in Asia (including Korea). Eventually GW2 will be available in Asia which I think will sky rocket their numbers.

  Nadia

Elite Member

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 11235

8/23/12 11:16:23 AM#88

GW2 launch is available to asian territories; I have a Hong Kong friend that prepurchased

 

the rest of the world, beyond EU, is NA by default for region

http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/42726-pre-purchase-issue-and-region-restrictions/

List of NA-region countries:


American Samoa
Anguilla
Antarctica
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentia
Aruba
Australia
Bahamas
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belize
Bermuda
Bhutan
Bolivia
Bouvet Island
Brazil
British Indian Ocean Territory
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
Canada
Cayman Islands
Chile
China
Columbia
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Falkland Islands
Fiji
Granada
Guam
Guatemala
Guyana
Haiti
Heard Islands and McDonald Islands
Honduras
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Jamaica
Japan
Kirabati
Korea, North
Korea, South
Laos
Macao
Malaysia
Maldives
Marshall Islands
Mexico
Micronesia, Federated States of
Mongolia
Montserrat
Myanmar
Nauru
Nepal
Netherlands Antilles
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niue
Norfolk Island
Northern Mariana Islands
Palau
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Puerto Rico
Saint Lucia
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Samoa
Sao Tome and Principe
Singapore
Solomon Islands
Sri Lanka
Suriname
Tahiti
Taiwan
Thailand
Tokelau
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Turks and Caicos Islands
Tuvalu
U.S. Minor Outlying Islands
United States of America
Uruguay
Vanuatu
Venezuela
Vietnam
Virgin Islands, British
Virgin Islands, US

 

 

  Thorbrand

Novice Member

Joined: 3/06/04
Posts: 1217

8/23/12 11:20:57 AM#89

2 million release sales.

500K for the first year afterwards.

  Zeus.CM

Novice Member

Joined: 6/13/10
Posts: 1790

www.croatian-maniacs.com

8/23/12 11:35:48 AM#90
1st month 3 mill, 1st year 5 mill
  Misaris

Novice Member

Joined: 6/28/12
Posts: 147

8/23/12 11:37:57 AM#91

1st Month: 1 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

2nd month: 12 copies

  BlueLantern

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/16/12
Posts: 107

8/23/12 11:41:17 AM#92

1m in 4 weeks, 2.9m by dec. 31, 4.4m in the first full year of release.


  dzoni87

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/23/08
Posts: 553

8/23/12 11:45:44 AM#93

One million billion copies (for a first month) :D

Main MMO at the moment: Guild Wars 2
Waiting for: Pathfinder Online

  Sloane66

Novice Member

Joined: 5/22/03
Posts: 11

8/23/12 11:47:43 AM#94

The hard thing to account for is digital sales. I think the majority of people are now purchasing their games from download services rather then Hard Box copies. When ever they report sales and data they often only include hard copy data instead of both hard and digital.

 

I imagine that with what I have been hearing in the other games I play that this game will have 2 million presale or prepurchase WW. Then probably get to around 5 million at end of year one. Once this game is released to the Asian market perhaps another 5 million copies.

  Zezda

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/27/09
Posts: 703

8/23/12 12:25:55 PM#95

[edit]

nevermind, I should wake up in the morning before posting :D

The reddit page shows about 1.7m copies ordered on the gw2.com website if you compare the order numbers in August vs the ones from April.

  User Deleted
8/23/12 1:03:49 PM#96
Originally posted by Baddogbill
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by William12
 Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l

i wonder about the 1 million preorders too

ANET never gave a press release saying that;  an analyst said that

 

heres what ANET said this week

http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html

Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.

Both of you are probably right.....I would think they have over a million pre-purchases and somewhere just shy of a million pre-orders

I wouldn't doubt a million preorders between NA/EU, but people thinking 4-5 times that in the 1st month need to come back to reality.  GW2 will be a niche PVP game.   It doesn't offer everyone something they want or even try to it is targeting a specific audience and the ones who think GW2 will even sustain millions are nuts.   

 

This is not a gw2 hate post I liked the game and will play it, but I'm realitsic and know that for me and many others like me farming cosmetic items wont do it in pve and the PVP is fun but it wont last just like anything in life its gonna get boring throw in the WvWvW where most of it is a zerg fest unless you find a good group and go out on your own away from the main battles.   Simply put I know going into this that the game won't hold me for long until more content is released and I'm fine with that.

  Zezda

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/27/09
Posts: 703

8/23/12 1:08:44 PM#97
Originally posted by William12
Originally posted by Baddogbill
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by William12
 Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l

i wonder about the 1 million preorders too

ANET never gave a press release saying that;  an analyst said that

 

heres what ANET said this week

http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html

Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.

Both of you are probably right.....I would think they have over a million pre-purchases and somewhere just shy of a million pre-orders

I wouldn't doubt a million preorders between NA/EU, but people thinking 4-5 times that in the 1st month need to come back to reality.  GW2 will be a niche PVP game.   It doesn't offer everyone something they want or even try to it is targeting a specific audience and the ones who think GW2 will even sustain millions are nuts.   

 

This is not a gw2 hate post I liked the game and will play it, but I'm realitsic and know that for me and many others like me farming cosmetic items wont do it in pve and the PVP is fun but it wont last just like anything in life its gonna get boring throw in the WvWvW where most of it is a zerg fest unless you find a good group and go out on your own away from the main battles.   Simply put I know going into this that the game won't hold me for long until more content is released and I'm fine with that.

A niche PvP game? What makes you think that? Almost every aspect of it's PvE experience is significantly better than any other MMO.

Unless of course you are trolling but if you aren't then I would really like to see what you think it's a niche game.

  User Deleted
8/23/12 3:52:51 PM#98
Originally posted by Zezda
Originally posted by William12
Originally posted by Baddogbill
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by William12
 Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l

i wonder about the 1 million preorders too

ANET never gave a press release saying that;  an analyst said that

 

heres what ANET said this week

http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html

Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.

Both of you are probably right.....I would think they have over a million pre-purchases and somewhere just shy of a million pre-orders

I wouldn't doubt a million preorders between NA/EU, but people thinking 4-5 times that in the 1st month need to come back to reality.  GW2 will be a niche PVP game.   It doesn't offer everyone something they want or even try to it is targeting a specific audience and the ones who think GW2 will even sustain millions are nuts.   

 

This is not a gw2 hate post I liked the game and will play it, but I'm realitsic and know that for me and many others like me farming cosmetic items wont do it in pve and the PVP is fun but it wont last just like anything in life its gonna get boring throw in the WvWvW where most of it is a zerg fest unless you find a good group and go out on your own away from the main battles.   Simply put I know going into this that the game won't hold me for long until more content is released and I'm fine with that.

A niche PvP game? What makes you think that? Almost every aspect of it's PvE experience is significantly better than any other MMO.

Unless of course you are trolling but if you aren't then I would really like to see what you think it's a niche game.

 

The 1-80 is gonna be fun, but once you get to 80 what now ?   How many people do you think find farming cosmetic items fun ?  I hate item grinds as much as the next person, but GW2 replaces it with nothing there is no incentive to keep playing. Will it be fun ? Sure for alittle bit, but like any game it will get boring and old fast.  During beta I found the PVE experience no better then any other PVE game at all the combat is fun, but the quest system is just the same as any other game except with big hearts and moved around the zone its different but not different if you know what I mean.   Like I said though I had fun in beta and will play it at launch, but I don't expect the game to hold my interest for very long.   

Now why do I think this is gonna be a niche game with a sustainable playerbase of 250-500k at best ?  MOST people are PVE players and I do not believe GW2 did PVE right at all.  The PVP on the other hand is done right and most PVPers will find it fun especially WvWvW even though the big battles were just a zerg fest.   I'll believe it when I see it, but I don't believe millions will find the PVE fun for more then a month.

 

Here's the thing GW2 is trying to reinvent a wheel that has worked for 13 + years.  The bait and hook in item grinds and character progression end game.  The problem is GW2 has no end game it has no incentive to keep playing once you get bored.   While I HATE item grinds theres an incentive in them you invest x amount of time to make your character x times better.  In GW2 there is no such thing so I ask what will keep the millions that people think will be playing this game to keep playing it  ?   Don't say fun because everyone gets bored and moves on the difference is in other MMOs when you get bored there's still something to achieve something to work toward.  People cannot say that concept is broken or does not work.  maybe it doesn't work for them anymore, but millions still play MMOs with that very thing EQ ,EQ2, WOW, Rift etc all of these games are succesful with this very concept.  I personally believe the vocal minority drove GW2 to become what it is not the majority.

  User Deleted
8/23/12 8:36:43 PM#99
Originally posted by Misaris

1st Month: 1 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

2nd month: 12 copies

Must be nice to live on your planet lots of clouds and cookoos ? 

  Azrile

Elite Member

Joined: 7/29/08
Posts: 2615

8/23/12 9:39:14 PM#100
Originally posted by Mykai

I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

 

1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

1st Year:  15 Million Copies

 

These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release.  Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.

2M the first month...   I am also better that MOP will sell more in its´ first day then GW2 sells up until that point.

As much as people talk about all of WOW´s subscriber being from Asia, it is funny how they sell 4.7 boxes in the first day (only in the west).

It will be hard to judge if GW2 is successful after launch though.  A subscription demands enjoyment, a non-subscription game demands just to overcome your boredom at the moment.

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