I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

1st Year:  15 Million Copies

These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release.  Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.

lol, you are a very optimistic person.

I would like to believe your guesstimates, but that is way to high. 

I would say 2.5 and 4.0 million

200 gajillion copies.

Um...I think like 4 million in the first month.   That might be slightly ambitious but maybe not since it seems like it just keeps picking up more steam.

First year I don't even know.   There's a chance it'll just do "very well" and there's also an off chance it truly does become the next huge thing.   I don't know which will happen.

1.4 overninethousandillion

Originally posted by Amjoco

I would like to believe your guesstimates, but that is way to high. 

I would say 2.5 and 4.0 million

That sounds about right. Maybe a little higher on the end, 2.5 and 5 million.

We'll see big box number sales, but low average population. Bad game? No.

No sub fee, so most will use it as a second game. Once the shine wears off.

It's fun and actiony, but not the kind of mmorpg you would call home. It can be played off and on due to the lack of gear progression. You can't get "behind" like in other mmorpgs.

It's a good thing. It's fun and doesn't require any real commitment.

The funny thing is, in some thread a month or so ago, Atlan99 and me made a bet. I predicted a really high number (6 million) in the first 2 months. He said no way. And he is almost certainly correct. If he wins the bet, my sig will forever be:

"SWTOR is the greatest game ever made!"

Or something like that. I think it'll see a huge amount of copies just based on the B2P nature of the game. What's cool right now is we get to find out what happens in a few days. Week 1 sales will likely be pretty huge. What happens after week 1 is anyone's guess imo.

2.5 Million strikes me as a bit low considering it already hit 1 Million pre-purchases back in mid-july and has been among the top selling PC games on Amazon for quite some time now.  Not to mention, many people (including multiple friends) are waiting to see the reviews post-launch before they dive in...

I'm sticking with my 5 million after the first month.  I'll come back here then and revive this thread regardless of whether I'm spot on or super-crazy optimistic with my outlook...

Originally posted by Mykai

I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

 

1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

1st Year:  15 Million Copies

 

I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role after the first month or so.

No freaking way.  2 million at the 30-day mark is insane to think about in this day and age of MMOs.  And let's see GW2 survive the first three months of release before even thinking past that.  It can all go down the drain in a hurry if ArenaNet mis-manages the game after launch.

I like GW2, but let's respect the recent history of MMO launches before throwing 7 and 8 digit numbers out there.

First Month: 2-3.5 million.

First year: 3.5-7 million.

Not including Asian regionalization and launch, but including all sales world wide utilizing the US and EU datacenters.

I know that GW2 is supposed to release up to a year after the Western Release in the East, while Blade&Soul will release in the west around the same time. How well B&S does in Asia may influence the timing of the GW2 Asia release. Sooner if B&S disappoints, later if it's a relly strong product in the market.

GW2 sales could increase considerably by the one year mark if the Asia release takes place during year one.

I also see potential for upside to the Western numbers, but a lot will depend on how well mmo gamers adapt to GW2's game design. For me, GW2 has ruined most other MMOs, but some people may be so married to the status quo MMO design that they may not successfully adapt to GW2. I consider this in my numbers.

Originally posted by colddog04

The funny thing is, in some thread a month or so ago, Atlan99 and me made a bet. I predicted a really high number (6 million) in the first 2 months. He said no way. And he is almost certainly correct. If he wins the bet, my sig will forever be:

 

"SWTOR is the greatest game ever made!"

 

Or something like that. I think it'll see a huge amount of copies just based on the B2P nature of the game. What's cool right now is we get to find out what happens in a few days. Week 1 sales will likely be pretty huge. What happens after week 1 is anyone's guess imo.

lol, classic. For your sake, I hope it starts selling big time. That is humiliating. :)

Originally posted by Mykai

2.5 Million strikes me as a bit low considering it already hit 1 Million pre-purchases back in mid-july and has been among the top selling PC games on Amazon for quite some time now.

I am just going by Cataclysm numbers, 4.7 in the first month. I am not saying it won't top 4.7 I just think it unlikely.

2.5 sounds about right. If it sells more; good for the game and good for the industry.

Originally posted by Mykai

I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

 

1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

1st Year:  15 Million Copies

 

These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release.  Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.

1st month(including pre-purchases): 4.5 Million

1st year: 9 million

2nd year: 15 million

Originally posted by Johnie-Marz

Originally posted by Mykai

2.5 Million strikes me as a bit low considering it already hit 1 Million pre-purchases back in mid-july and has been among the top selling PC games on Amazon for quite some time now.

I am just going by Cataclysm numbers, 4.7 in the first month. I am not saying it won't top 4.7 I just think it unlikely.

2.5 sounds about right. If it sells more; good for the game and good for the industry.

Well, considering GW2 is in the top 5 best PC sellers on Amazon atm, with MoP below GW2 standard edition, it'd be a safe bet it's getting over Catclysm numbers.

1.5 million 1st month

3 million by end of the 2012  (4 months later)

I'm going with around lots (ish)...    give or take...   some

I do want to say, that when GW2 outsells MoP I will be celebrating with 5 million other people or maybe even more.

Originally posted by gieger808

We'll see big box number sales, but low average population. Bad game? No.

No sub fee, so most will use it as a second game. Once the shine wears off.

It's fun and actiony, but not the kind of mmorpg you would call home. It can be played off and on due to the lack of gear progression. You can't get "behind" like in other mmorpgs.

It's a good thing. It's fun and doesn't require any real commitment.

Are you serious? This is the only MMO in the last five years I've been ble to play for more than 80 total hours before wanting to bale. Between all events I'm now over the 150 hour mark, with no MMO fatigue. I saved some zones for launch, so that I'd have fresh content when the game goes live. However, I love the zones I have played, and played, so much I will be retracing my bet steps on my first character and saving some of the other zones for months down the road.

That's what has me so hooked on this game. Finally, an MMO I want to call home. An MMO I can easily see myself hitting and exceeding the 1,000 hour /played mark during year one! In recent years, I've had to be satisfied if an MMO would provide me with 60 hours of game play to justify the box price. I had almost given up on finding an MMO I would want to play for months or years.

I fully expect that a much larger percentage of GW2 purchasers will still be playing in 6-12 months than we have seen with any MMO since WoW.

This IS, finally, an MMO to "get behind" and immerse one's self in. In many ways, this is the MMO I've been hoping for since I first started playing MMOs almost 14 years ago. The game isn't perfect, but it actually puts the genre back on the path I hoped and envisioned the genre would follow through generational improvements and the support of more and more powerful hardware.