Take a look at SWTOR. The only measurable form of success for modern MMOs is their retention rate of subscribers. However, GW2 really has no measurable way to see how successful they are. It is a Buy-To-Play and if we were measuring box sales as a form of success than SWTOR, AOC, Aion, TERA, and Diablo III (albeit not an MMO) are all true successes in the market, but the reality is that's not how we measure success!

So right now the market prediction is 1.2 to 1.5 million box sales. Cool, a reasonable expectation considering GW1 had a decent following, and given the fact that GW2 is nothing but GW1 on steroids that's a completely acceptable expectation. However, do NOT make the mistake in thinking that GW2 will "change the industry" in terms of gameplay, world design, etc. GW2 is a specific fanbase, and is still a themepark MMO. We won't see major waves out of GW2 for any other noticable benefit other than B2P + CashShop cosmetic cash shop (even though buying experience bonuses is NOT cosmetic) being more popular for MMOs to use. Not a bad thing, but still not the best.

SWTOR was predicted as "the game changer", and even got the same amount of hype threads as GW2 is getting about how amazing it will be. It won't be that amazing, but if you're excited for it just realize that there are quite a few more who are using it as a simple time waster for other games to come out (the general admission I seem to get from people IRL).

Game Changer, Best MMO Ever, Best MMO Ever Made, Most Successful MMO? Certainly none of these, but successful as a PROPERLY done fan-oriented successor to GW1? Absolutely!

Gotta say, I won't be playing GW2, but it's about damn time developers properly did a sequel of an original that is actually meant for the fans of the original product.

/PeacefulBow

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

Take a look at SWTOR. The only measurable form of success for modern MMOs is their retention rate of subscribers. However, GW2 really has no measurable way to see how successful they are. It is a Buy-To-Play and if we were measuring box sales as a form of success than SWTOR, AOC, Aion, TERA, and Diablo III (albeit not an MMO) are all true successes in the market, but the reality is that's not how we measure success!

 

Yes it does. If 6 months from now the game as huge server merges just like SWTOR is having, that means the game is doing fine?

Sub fees are money. No sub fee means the game relies ona cash shop. Low population can still mean the game is making money with it or it can easily mean the opposite. If we get access to finacials of Anet, that's one thing, but whatever. All mmos have updates and expansions. And competetion. And etc.

I don't believe for 1 second the game will "fail". But i can defenatly quantify the level of sucess if equal to other mmos or greater.

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

Game Changer, Best MMO Ever, Best MMO Ever Made, Most Successful MMO

I agree with what you said right there. GW2 is all that.

I think nobody claims that the game will have an impact on the MMO industry.

I do not think the purpose of the game is to bring revolution. It is more about bringing quality structured pvp for casual players, imo. I see it as an alternative to a FPS in a fantasy setting.

And in case you missed it OP, P2P game sell boxes. They most of their investement back like any B2P would. The difference is, the P2P keeps gettin money after that, which is usually more usefull.

Originally posted by FredomSekerZ

And in case you missed it OP, P2P game sell boxes. They most of their investement back like any B2P would. The difference is, the P2P keeps gettin money after that, which is usually more usefull.

Which is my entire point, or did you NOT read my thread as your post seems to indicate?

I pointed out that P2P games also do box sales, but GW2 is ONLY doing box sales which in itself is not a measure of pure success. However, people will still shout "SUCCESS!" simply because it's B2P, but that isn't true simply because they're planning to milk GW2 with cash-shops as their form of subscriptions.

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

So right now the market prediction is 1.2 to 1.5 million box sales. Cool, a reasonable expectation considering GW1 had a decent following, and given the fact that GW2 is nothing but GW1 on steroids that's a completely acceptable expectation. However, do NOT make the mistake in thinking that GW2 will "change the industry" in terms of gameplay, world design, etc. GW2 is a specific fanbase, and is still a themepark MMO. We won't see major waves out of GW2 for any other noticable benefit other than B2P + CashShop cosmetic cash shop (even though buying experience bonuses is NOT cosmetic) being more popular for MMOs to use. Not a bad thing, but still not the best.

 

That was GW1 numbers in a few months.

Twice as that before the end of the year is the expectation.

http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/guild0-wars-2-thanksgiving-in-tyria/

no matter what hype swtor apparently had.. i knew it was going to fail..

atm i love gw2 and think itll be great so im not worried in the slightest

Originally posted by coretex666

I think nobody claims that the game will have an impact on the MMO industry.

I do not think the purpose of the game is to bring revolution. It is more about bringing quality structured pvp for casual players, imo. I see it as an alternative to a FPS in a fantasy setting.

Read up and down the GW2 forum section here on MMORPG. Tons of "Best MMO ever", "Game Changer", etc etc. The entire point of this thread was to throw some sense back into these forums :3!

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

So right now the market prediction is 1.2 to 1.5 million box sales. Cool, a reasonable expectation considering GW1 had a decent following, and given the fact that GW2 is nothing but GW1 on steroids that's a completely acceptable expectation. However, do NOT make the mistake in thinking that GW2 will "change the industry" in terms of gameplay, world design, etc. GW2 is a specific fanbase, and is still a themepark MMO. We won't see major waves out of GW2 for any other noticable benefit other than B2P + CashShop cosmetic cash shop (even though buying experience bonuses is NOT cosmetic) being more popular for MMOs to use. Not a bad thing, but still not the best.

 

That was GW1 numbers in a few months.

Twice as that before the end of the year is the expectation.

You forget that people tried GW1 over the many years that it has been out and liked it. GW1's retention rate was about 3months to 6months for new players before quitting out of boredom. That means that those numbers being more than 3/4ths GW1 fans is a very realistic expectation.

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

So right now the market prediction is 1.2 to 1.5 million box sales. Cool, a reasonable expectation considering GW1 had a decent following, and given the fact that GW2 is nothing but GW1 on steroids that's a completely acceptable expectation. However, do NOT make the mistake in thinking that GW2 will "change the industry" in terms of gameplay, world design, etc. GW2 is a specific fanbase, and is still a themepark MMO. We won't see major waves out of GW2 for any other noticable benefit other than B2P + CashShop cosmetic cash shop (even though buying experience bonuses is NOT cosmetic) being more popular for MMOs to use. Not a bad thing, but still not the best.

 

That was GW1 numbers in a few months.

Twice as that before the end of the year is the expectation.

You forget that people tried GW1 over the many years that it has been out and liked it. GW1's retention rate was about 3months to 6months for new players before quitting out of boredom. That means that those numbers being more than 3/4ths GW1 fans is a very realistic expectation.

People hadn't tried GW1 for a years a couple months after release of the game. http://eu.guildwars.com/press/article/guild_wars_surpasses_one_million_units_sold_in_north_america_and_europe_sep/

http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/guild0-wars-2-thanksgiving-in-tyria/ <- market prediction

Guild Wars 2 will be a success when people start playing on the live servers and get immersed. Success equals fun, if there are lots and lots of people having fun with the game then it is successful. If the amount of servers is increased then it is successful, if the expansions sell as well as the full game then it is successful. But most of all if anytime of the day you can find people to enjoy the game with, then it means it is successful.

GW2 aims at people who don't play MMORPGs at all as well as veterans. Veterans will love the freedom of exploration, those who hate MMORPGs will love the cooperative mechanics, the profession mechanics and the combat. There are certain reasons people hate MMORPGs and GW2 doesn't have most of them (no grind, no static combat, no sub fee are some)

SWTOR was never a game changer, it never tried to be either. They made certain descisions that lead to the game being one of the same. The only game changing part was the storyline, nothing more. It appears that a good storyline isn't enough for a successful MMORPG. Gameplay > Story anytime

We'll see how successful it will be. Is it a Game Changer? Yes because it does things differently. Is it the best MMO ever? For those who like what the game gives of course it is! Will it be successful? 1 mil people applied for the beta test, thousands already pre-purchased the game, there are currently 96 servers for it, granted we don't know how many people each one supports, but it is a clear indication that the game exceeded at least all the expectations of Anet, they only had 48 servers for BWE1 they didn't expect the game to be so successful

I know many fans of GW1 that won't be playing GW2 because they prefer a lobby based PVP game. GW2 is only on the same universe as GW1, they are not similar in any way (fortunately or unfortunately, depending on person)

7 years ago

original guild wars sold 1 million in the first 5 months, and 2 million its first year

-- im expecting GW2 to double that

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

Originally posted by FredomSekerZ

And in case you missed it OP, P2P game sell boxes. They most of their investement back like any B2P would. The difference is, the P2P keeps gettin money after that, which is usually more usefull.

Which is my entire point, or did you NOT read my thread as your post seems to indicate?

 

I pointed out that P2P games also do box sales, but GW2 is ONLY doing box sales which in itself is not a measure of pure success. However, people will still shout "SUCCESS!" simply because it's B2P, but that isn't true simply because they're planning to milk GW2 with cash-shops as their form of subscriptions.

Oh ok. By bad, sorry. But that's what i'm trying to say. SWTOR sold 2 million the insane production cost was also a very bad factor i know), but it's dropping subs as we speak, which is always bad.

Also, an even greater problem mmos face is the "new, shinny" going away. Next year TESO is coming out, and if it's goo, it's going to be a shinny new game never before tried against an expansion from a 1 year old game.

Many factors play it things.

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

So right now the market prediction is 1.2 to 1.5 million box sales. Cool, a reasonable expectation considering GW1 had a decent following, and given the fact that GW2 is nothing but GW1 on steroids that's a completely acceptable expectation. However, do NOT make the mistake in thinking that GW2 will "change the industry" in terms of gameplay, world design, etc. GW2 is a specific fanbase, and is still a themepark MMO. We won't see major waves out of GW2 for any other noticable benefit other than B2P + CashShop cosmetic cash shop (even though buying experience bonuses is NOT cosmetic) being more popular for MMOs to use. Not a bad thing, but still not the best.

 

That was GW1 numbers in a few months.

Twice as that before the end of the year is the expectation.

You forget that people tried GW1 over the many years that it has been out and liked it. GW1's retention rate was about 3months to 6months for new players before quitting out of boredom. That means that those numbers being more than 3/4ths GW1 fans is a very realistic expectation.

People hadn't tried GW1 for a years a couple months after release of the game.

http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/guild0-wars-2-thanksgiving-in-tyria/ <- market prediction

Right, but your whole point was "That was GW1's numbers in a few months"...which again is true. However, again, my point was that MORE than those players have tried the game over the years but left. The same people in the first 6months didn't keep playing and playing and playing and playing over the years. It has been a rotation of new blood, but a real fan never dies. GW1's content is relatively light considering the fact that they're B2P which isn't surprising.

Now that GW2 is coming out we're going to see ALL of the fans from the past couple years of GW1 slowly moving to GW2, and we'll see a good batch of them in the first 3months.

You didn't need to post a link, I've already read it :).

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

The entire point of this thread was to throw some sense back into these forums :3!

We thank you for caring about us, no really!

Your opinion is highly valued, specially as someone who doesn't plan to play this game at all.

More seriously, what's up with all those people who don't even plan to play and their doom theories? Is that a new mood or something? What I have heard (about SW:TOR, but also TSW and others) is that people were playing those games because they had nothing better to do while waiting for GW2. I heard that a lot, on official forums and on fan forums.

Originally posted by Nadia

7 years ago

original guild wars sold 1 million in the first 5 months, and 2 million its first year

-- im expecting GW2 to double that

7 years ago, GW1 didn't have much competition, the mmo market was brand new to the masses, it was the only "free-er" option against subs, it was a lobby based game, etc.

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

Take a look at SWTOR. The only measurable form of success for modern MMOs is their retention rate of subscribers. However, GW2 really has no measurable way to see how successful they are. It is a Buy-To-Play and if we were measuring box sales as a form of success than SWTOR, AOC, Aion, TERA, and Diablo III (albeit not an MMO) are all true successes in the market, but the reality is that's not how we measure success!

So right now the market prediction is 1.2 to 1.5 million box sales. Cool, a reasonable expectation considering GW1 had a decent following, and given the fact that GW2 is nothing but GW1 on steroids that's a completely acceptable expectation. However, do NOT make the mistake in thinking that GW2 will "change the industry" in terms of gameplay, world design, etc. GW2 is a specific fanbase, and is still a themepark MMO. We won't see major waves out of GW2 for any other noticable benefit other than B2P + CashShop cosmetic cash shop (even though buying experience bonuses is NOT cosmetic) being more popular for MMOs to use. Not a bad thing, but still not the best.

SWTOR was predicted as "the game changer", and even got the same amount of hype threads as GW2 is getting about how amazing it will be. It won't be that amazing, but if you're excited for it just realize that there are quite a few more who are using it as a simple time waster for other games to come out (the general admission I seem to get from people IRL).

Game Changer, Best MMO Ever, Best MMO Ever Made, Most Successful MMO? Certainly none of these, but successful as a PROPERLY done fan-oriented successor to GW1? Absolutely!

Gotta say, I won't be playing GW2, but it's about damn time developers properly did a sequel of an original that is actually meant for the fans of the original product.

/PeacefulBow

TOR never was even near GW2 in hype, GW2 have been on top of the hype meter for almost 3 years and way ahead of TOR even at TORs release week. Then again, hype proves nothing but it was you that brought it up.

1,2-1,5 M copies sold? Are that preorders and first week, first month or total sales? Because the first GW have 4 million seperate accounts and I would be surprised if it sold less than the first game which started out as completely unknown.

As for it being a improved version of the first game that is both true and not true. The first GW was made with a really low budget and while Anet wanted to make a MMO they just didn't have the money for it. GW2 is part the first game, part the planned "utopia" expansion for GW and part new stuff. But it do offer some things that havn't been seen in MMOs for a long time like exploration and some stuff I never seen (been playing since M59) like dungeons filled with actual traps.

I think it will have an impact on future games, it might still be a themepark but it hides it well. It wont become the next Wow or anything, but I don´t think there ever will be a new game that influences the market that much, som ething like that only happen once in a genre.

I would be surprised if Wow doesn´t add some dynamic events and GW2 styled dungeons and after that many others will follow. Most wont exchange quests for DEs though but that is because it is so much work. Instead they will add some standalone DEs.

The reason it is thought of as a changer is because it's the first made to be btp mmo that is of this high quality. Prior ftp or btp mmos have been less than first class. GW2 appears to be taking the genre ahead a few steps. When I show people the vids they say it looks interesting but dunno if they will play, then I say it's BTP and they can't believe it.

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

Right, but your whole point was "That was GW1's numbers in a few months"...which again is true. However, again, my point was that MORE than those players have tried the game over the years but left. The same people in the first 6months didn't keep playing and playing and playing and playing over the years. It has been a rotation of new blood, but a real fan never dies. GW1's content is relatively light considering the fact that they're B2P which isn't surprising.

Now that GW2 is coming out we're going to see ALL of the fans from the past couple years of GW1 slowly moving to GW2, and we'll see a good batch of them in the first 3months.

You didn't need to post a link, I've already read it :).

Actually GW1 was built to be a PvP game with light PvE game.

Only much later were titles and other PvE grinds added.

Factions was still an expansion trying to make PvP more popular.

With Nightfall, Anet changed its focus.

GW2 is a game much more pvE oriented, much more popular and followed than GW1, attracting a much broader player base than GW1.