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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » Who will sell most boxes? WoW MOP or GW2

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164 posts found
  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 977

7/04/12 2:19:26 PM#141

Try a different question: which game has sold the most out of GW1 and WoW? Both games were / are mega sucessful.

Over time WoW has clearly sold tens of millions of copies - far more than the peak 12M sub number. And years ago NCSoft advertised GW1 as having sold 20M copies. I have no idea which has sold the most but GW1 still sells today!

As GW2 maintains the basic f2p approach I would expect that over time it to will sell a huge number of copies - probably more that MoP as well because of the "f2p vs. subscription" approach.

  Xstatic912

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/20/11
Posts: 367

7/04/12 2:36:50 PM#142
A bit off topic...

Wow dev's just care about sustaining the number of sub they have going now.. I'm sure by now they realize it has peaked.. If you were a past wow player and quit and then turn around and buy mists expansion.. Blizz would have half succeeded, because it shows you still love there products, but maybe this wasn't for you..

I love wow and won't stop playing, just because a new shiny product without substance comes along.. I'll also support other games that peak my interest and if that game can keep me entertained, I'll play it long also..

some players tend to treat games way too personal and some are easily influence by other on what to like and play..
  drbaltazar

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/28/07
Posts: 7927

7/04/12 2:39:06 PM#143

what made gw1 success was mainly its pvp tournament!like i said even if arenanet charged monthly for those tournament goer ,gw2 will still do great!why?why do people buy lotery?

  Valua

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/08/11
Posts: 521

7/04/12 4:15:00 PM#144
Originally posted by gervaise1

Try a different question: which game has sold the most out of GW1 and WoW? Both games were / are mega sucessful.

Over time WoW has clearly sold tens of millions of copies - far more than the peak 12M sub number. And years ago NCSoft advertised GW1 as having sold 20M copies. I have no idea which has sold the most but GW1 still sells today!

As GW2 maintains the basic f2p approach I would expect that over time it to will sell a huge number of copies - probably more that MoP as well because of the "f2p vs. subscription" approach.

NCsoft has never said GW1 has sold 20million, because that would be a blatant lie. GW1 has sold 7 million, including all expansions.

 

WoW has sold in the margin of 40-80 million boxes. 

 

And WoW will continue to outsell every other MMO for a long time.

  Gaia_Hunter

Elite Member

Joined: 5/04/12
Posts: 2445

7/04/12 4:30:13 PM#145
Originally posted by Valua
Originally posted by gervaise1

Try a different question: which game has sold the most out of GW1 and WoW? Both games were / are mega sucessful.

Over time WoW has clearly sold tens of millions of copies - far more than the peak 12M sub number. And years ago NCSoft advertised GW1 as having sold 20M copies. I have no idea which has sold the most but GW1 still sells today!

As GW2 maintains the basic f2p approach I would expect that over time it to will sell a huge number of copies - probably more that MoP as well because of the "f2p vs. subscription" approach.

NCsoft has never said GW1 has sold 20million, because that would be a blatant lie. GW1 has sold 7 million, including all expansions.

 

WoW has sold in the margin of 40-80 million boxes. 

 

And WoW will continue to outsell every other MMO for a long time.

Although some of the GW boxes contained more than 1 campaign, some even all tha campaigns.

Not that it makes much difference in the end, but not bad for a first game of a new small studio designed to be PvP and only went heavy PvE with nightfall and eye of the north.

It is interesing that GW become a success while failling the original premise - be a heavy oriented PvP game that could be an esport.

Currently playing: GW2
Cooperative (semi cooperative)board games you should check: Pandemic, Sentinels of the Multiverse, Eldritch Horror, Descent 2.0,Level 7 Omega Protocol, Last Night on Earth

  Nadia

Elite Member

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 10803

7/04/12 5:23:35 PM#146
Originally posted by Valua

I've done my market research, if we take WoW out of the equation (as we should, because it's leagues ahead of GW2 playerbase wise) then we look at the sales of recent MMO's.

First I'll look at a massively successful single player game, Skyrim, which has around 1.5 million PC sales.

Rift, which has very little marketing sold around 1 million copies.

The Old Republic (which had much more marketing than GW2) sold 2 million. 

RIFT sold one million after 5 or 6 months and had more hype than the original guild wars

 

7 years ago, April 2005, with not much hype

and launching on heels of WOW, GuildWars sold one million in first 5 months

http://guildwars.com/events/press/releases/

Guild Wars sold 2 million by its first year

 

im expecting Guild Wars 2 to sell more than double that - by end of the first year

 

for context,

when Guild Wars announced one million sold in Sept 2005

WOW announced TOTAL subs of 3.5 million  --  2million US/EU,  1.5 million China

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=5989

  Valua

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/08/11
Posts: 521

7/04/12 7:08:08 PM#147
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by Valua

I've done my market research, if we take WoW out of the equation (as we should, because it's leagues ahead of GW2 playerbase wise) then we look at the sales of recent MMO's.

First I'll look at a massively successful single player game, Skyrim, which has around 1.5 million PC sales.

Rift, which has very little marketing sold around 1 million copies.

The Old Republic (which had much more marketing than GW2) sold 2 million. 

RIFT sold one million after 5 or 6 months and had more hype than the original guild wars

 

7 years ago, April 2005, with not much hype

and launching on heels of WOW, GuildWars sold one million in first 5 months

http://guildwars.com/events/press/releases/

Guild Wars sold 2 million by its first year

 

im expecting Guild Wars 2 to sell more than double that - by end of the first year

 

for context,

when Guild Wars announced one million sold in Sept 2005

WOW announced TOTAL subs of 3.5 million  --  2million US/EU,  1.5 million China

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=5989

 

Guild Wars 1 had much more marketing than Rift, as it had one of the biggest gaming companies in the world backing it up (NCSoft.)

 

I also think GW1 had more hype than Rift too, it was the first game I ever heard being called a "WoW killer." 

 

You also have to remember the only real competition GW1 had in 2005 was WoW.

 

Now, in 2012, it has not only WoW, but The Old Republic, Rift, Tera, The Secret World, Elder Scrolls and a number of others releasing in the next 12 months. Which is a lot more competition than the first one.

 

You honestly believe Guild Wars 2 will sell 4 million copies in it's first year? Has an MMO ever even done that (other than WoW)? I seriously doubt that.

 

I think GW2 might do as well as GW1, maybe a little worse, maybe a tiny bit better. 

 

I'm standing strong with my opinion; GW2 will sell close to 2 million.

  Nadia

Elite Member

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 10803

7/04/12 8:52:19 PM#148
Originally posted by Valua

You also have to remember the only real competition GW1 had in 2005 was WoW.

as i posted elsewhere

 

there was enough around preWOW -- more than a dozen mmos
 
Pre2001
Everquest, Ultima Online, Lineage
 
2001
Anarchy Online, Asherons Call, Dark Age of Camelot
 
2002
Earth & Beyond, Final Fantasy XI
 
2003
Shadowbane, Eve Online, Lineage II ,Second Life, Star Wars Galaxies, Horizons (now called Isitaria)
 
early 2004
City of Heroes

 

in spring 2004, PreWOW,

Microsoft cancelled their mmo, Mythica, citing that the mmo market was too competitive

 

Flood of games, too few players cause change in online realm (Boston Globe article from Feb 2004)

http://otherworlds31279.yuku.com/topic/1167/Online-games-failure-success-Boston-Globe-article

other companies are finding it surprisingly hard to duplicate Sony's success. Microsoft abandoned Mythica last week, even before the game was officially launched. "We were looking at the . . . market and really determined that we couldn't be competitive," said Microsoft spokeswoman Genevieve Waldman.

  Valua

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/08/11
Posts: 521

7/05/12 12:55:47 PM#149
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by Valua

You also have to remember the only real competition GW1 had in 2005 was WoW.

as i posted elsewhere

 

there was enough around preWOW -- more than a dozen mmos
 
Pre2001
Everquest, Ultima Online, Lineage
 
2001
Anarchy Online, Asherons Call, Dark Age of Camelot
 
2002
Earth & Beyond, Final Fantasy XI
 
2003
Shadowbane, Eve Online, Lineage II ,Second Life, Star Wars Galaxies, Horizons (now called Isitaria)
 
early 2004
City of Heroes

 

in spring 2004, PreWOW,

Microsoft cancelled their mmo, Mythica, citing that the mmo market was too competitive

 

Flood of games, too few players cause change in online realm (Boston Globe article from Feb 2004)

http://otherworlds31279.yuku.com/topic/1167/Online-games-failure-success-Boston-Globe-article

other companies are finding it surprisingly hard to duplicate Sony's success. Microsoft abandoned Mythica last week, even before the game was officially launched. "We were looking at the . . . market and really determined that we couldn't be competitive," said Microsoft spokeswoman Genevieve Waldman.

 

But very little in 2005 when GW1 was released. Other than WoW.

 

CoH, EQ2 and Final Fantasy had smaller loyal fanbases, in the hundreds of thousands sure, but only WoW had millions.

 

It doesn't surprise me that GW1 was so successful with it's lack of competition. 

 

GW2 on the other hand has much, much more competition with with more already released games having strong loyal player bases (CoH, Final Fantasy, EQ2, WoW, Rift, Lotro, DnD etc.) 

 

And then newly released games, or games yet to be released coming around the same time as GW2 (Tera, TSW, ESO, ArcheAge and a few other sandboxes.)

  DJJazzy

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/18/11
Posts: 2068

7/05/12 1:07:41 PM#150

Mists of Pandas will sell more, that is an easy one to call. That isn't saying it will be a better game, just that MoP alreeady has the playerbase of 10 million to purchase it. GW2 will be lucky to get half of that in box sales in a year, and this is coming from a GW2 fan.

  teakbois

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/06/06
Posts: 2190

7/05/12 1:14:33 PM#151
Originally posted by Valua

 

You also have to remember the only real competition GW1 had in 2005 was WoW.

 

Now, in 2012, it has not only WoW, but The Old Republic, Rift, Tera, The Secret World, Elder Scrolls and a number of others releasing in the next 12 months. Which is a lot more competition than the first one.

 

 

GW1 wasnt an MMORPG

That said, 2005 also had EQ2, SWG wasnt NGE'd yet, EQ1 still had a higher pop than any of those other games you listed besides SWTOR, and you had the release of LOTRO

  Wolfhammer

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/11/08
Posts: 412

Bleh!

7/05/12 2:07:37 PM#152
Originally posted by Zeroxin

I put my d*** in every GW2 box so OBVIOUSLY it's going to sell more.

Hahahaha great stuff.

This man wins the thread !!!

  Grixxitt

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/18/12
Posts: 526

7/05/12 2:30:41 PM#153

WoWs success in the western market obviously has everything to do with Chuck Norris and Mister T.

If those guys aren't onboard with GW2 I seriously doubt it will outsell the panda expansion. I mean its conceivably possible that GW2 gets someone like Clint Eastwood or the ghosts of Charles Bronson and John Wayne to add to the marketing hype but I seriously doubt it. 

The above is my personal opinion. Anyone displaying a view contrary to my opinion is obviously WRONG and should STHU. (neener neener)

-The MMO Forum Community

  Ashen_X

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/22/10
Posts: 365

7/05/12 10:54:51 PM#154

Who cares as long as each sells enough to support ongoing development ?

When all has been said and done, more will have been said than done.

  p_c_sousa

Novice Member

Joined: 3/31/08
Posts: 627

7/15/12 6:13:39 AM#155

WoW MOP will sell more but GW2 is clear a much much better game. if WoW original  release at same time that GW2 obvious almost no one will gonna buy it, the diference in quality is so big...

most of WoW players just still continuous play that game because they invest so much time on that game that now dont want leave it. personally i never understood this, when i get bored of a game i just leave...

  Icewhite

Made History

Joined: 7/11/11
Posts: 6495

Pink, it's like red but not quite.

7/15/12 6:52:20 AM#156
Originally posted by Ashen_X

Who cares as long as each sells enough to support ongoing development ?

The Herd has to make up its mind where it will graze next.

Where the grass is greenest, of course.

Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  winter

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/08/03
Posts: 2153

7/15/12 7:02:59 AM#157

 Sadly WoW's will beat the silly out of GW2 when it comes to sells, no amount of rabid fanboisism will change reality that much. I mean really GW2 just isn't that big of a thing and using GW1 as a reference it will not come close to MOP. Trust me I am not a WoW fan I just am not caught up in the GW2 hype to start disregarding reality that much. 

  User Deleted
7/15/12 7:07:40 AM#158
Originally posted by Icewhite
Originally posted by Ashen_X

Who cares as long as each sells enough to support ongoing development ?

The Herd has to make up its mind where it will graze next.

Where the grass is greenest, of course.

is it ironic that Pandaria's whole theme is about grass and the color green?

  PalmyCloud

Novice Member

Joined: 9/26/11
Posts: 80

7/15/12 7:19:44 AM#159

All numbers are for EU/US

When there are around 4 million that play right now and MoP launches close to GW2 then I expect 1 million to quit WoW for GW2. Then there are those that will buy MoP simply to check out the new content, I expect 1.5 million. Thus, at launch I expect WoW: 4.5 million and for GW2: 1.5 - 2 million.

Until christmas I guess that there are around 2 million that will join GW2 and the ones who quit: maximum 500k. Thus I expect 3-3.5 million until christmas for GW2. If MoP dissappoints around 1.5 - 2 cancel their sub, if it does not 1 million will quit nevertheless. SO: WOW: 2.5 -  3 million, maximum: 3.5 million

I can't expect 2013 because by then most people will have finished (max level) and then I do not know how the average player will react to the games endgame philosphy and how successfull PVP will be.

"Der Weg ist das Ziel." - "The way is the goal."
Thank you ArenaNet and Bioware. Finally MMOG-Devs start to understand Konfuzius. Thx alot.

  Sukiyaki

Elite Member

Joined: 8/14/09
Posts: 1207

7/15/12 7:39:04 AM#160

"Launch day" (aka preorders + normal retail sales):

WoW: 2.7-3.1 Million ( high or low depending if they pull some marketing ploy again like free playtime handouts for D3 player or something like that or another SoR upgrade)

GW2: 1.2 - 1.4 Million (Depending on advertisement shortly before launch.)

1st month (all sales):

WoW: 2.9 - 3.3 Million

GW2: 1.6 - 2.0 Million (Depending on ads and marketing)

1st quarter (all sales):

WoW: 3.1 - 3.6 Million (Depending how much GW2's success affects WoW they will certainly release a major(ly hyped) contentpatch very fast and promote the expansion again.)

GW2: 2.4 - 2.8 Million (Depending on ads and marketing)

 

Of course NA EU only (no Brazilian/Portugese user)

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