Analyst pulls a bunch of uniformed crap out of their arse -- only EA knows the number of subs -- and, other than that it fits the dominant narrative here, this is news? [edited post]

Originally posted by Tellax

their problem is that they are trying to make this into a business....  (don't get me wrong).. 

 

Like..  their main goal seems to have been (from the start) "ohh, we're gonna be epic, we're gonna have x-set of features and it's gonna be (guess what) epic..."  and they've been spazzing over those damn sub perscriptions forever...

 

it's like the same principle as being a kid and having a birthday party and trying to predict how many presents you are going to get, then.. being a retard you publish\talk loudly about it to everyone.. then when the party comes.. you end up getting jack ****....

 

I swear... EA and now Bioware.. are just a bunch of greedy nogood tards that have lost all sense from their starting point....    it's pathetic and sad.... 

 

I am still currentlyu subscribed, I think the only reason being is that I do two things: I play with my friend exclusivley (we dont play our chars without each other) making the sometimes annoying quests with walls of text and minutes of waiting more enjoyable, and then I also dont overplay it, I am level 36 and have been playing since day one, just taking my time.

The quote I used seems to be the most realistic, they really acted like the whole story thing was leaps and bounds beyond anything we had seen, when in reality it was just a bit better than lotros idea...or guild wars' idea.....or wait....I guess lots of MMOs have had similar story, perhaps not with as much dialoge options but hey..

TOR is a decent game, but its not cut out for the MMO community, it will take a smart f2p overhaul and some GOOD solid (rabid wow fan style) raiding to keep it alive.

Also on a third note.....the game engine they used to build the game was a terrible mistake, considering the numerous MMO's coming out this year alone, with their own unique, self created, and NEXT GEN game engines.

Originally posted by Valentina

Um, a game launching with 1.7 mil and having over 1 million at all this close after launch is pretty fantastic. Considering WoW had 350k during it's first year entirely, this is still impressive. The numbers have actually been increasing over the last  2-3 weeks, you can see it in the server selection there's more servers being populated again  when there had been a decline before.

 

Also, this is hearsay/rumor and an "analyst". Funny how when analysts say good things, nobody believes them, but when they say negative things, everyone believes them...Hahaha..

Except you left out the fact that at the time of WoWs release there was a SHIT TON less people playing MMOs, a mere fraction of the number playing now.  WoW opened up the market astronomically and if there was one thing WoW can claim being the most influencial in the MMO market it is that.

Any wats as for the fanboism vs hater pissing contest, wasn't it revealed that 250 mill was the cost of production or was that some anaylst or guru piping their guess in?

And I was RIGHT about yet another mmo prediction b4 launch. When are the noobs on this site going to open their eyes to good game design and stop mindlessly following and blatantly defending crap games????? Your guess is as good as mine.

Originally posted by musicmann

I honestly believe that this is the best thing that could happen to this genre. When developers stop making SP COOP GAMES, and start making VIRTUAL WORLD ONLINE MMORPG's once again, then the genre will be heading back in the right direction. For too many yrs. now, lazy AAA dev companies have pushed these awful ideas and systems that has turned this genre into something different. I say, it is time for the old fat cats to go and the smaller companies with new and innovative ideas that want to create real mmorpg's to get their due and the finance's they need to do it right and in a timely manner.

TOR was nothing more than a fast cash grab for EA and nothing more. They created a GAME that they knew would only satisfy the SP console KOTOR fans and figured if they could get enough money up front then it would be a success. They were wrong in my opinion.

 

But, they wont.  This is sadly what the MMO genre has become and is likely to stay as for quite a while.  Despite the amount of posts, we ARE the minority that wants the big hard to play and excel in games. 

The bulk mass of players don't want challenges, they want instant gratification.  They don't want to explore, they want to be told where to go, when and how to act when they get there.  Weekend warriors took over the genre and they outnumber us, which means their money outdoes our money.

Sure occasionally we'll get a nugget of  hope or a game that promises something of a glimer but in the end, unless it's a niche thing, I personally believe that this genre is stuck here because this IS what people want.

Some of you are going to say, well if it's what they want then why do subs decline?  The answer to me is simple.  These people with the need for instant gratification are the same people that loose interest because there's a new shiny game coming out that they can go to that'll give them that same rewarded feeling for doing almost nothing all over again.

It's annoying to those of us that want the challenge, that would like to be able to actually accomplish in game to get rewarded instead of simply expect rewards for simply being there.

Anyhow, that's my opinion and I  have no expectations that this genre will change anytime soon if ever.  It's been stuck where it's at for almost 10 years now and shows no sign of moving forwards at all.

A damn great MMORPG, any noob that thinks it is a single player game you are a joke to the gaming community. It will loose subs, and it will gain subs Just like every mmo out there. Where it is going so strong it is not going anywhere, the game will just keep getting better and better. 

Originally posted by NipJohn

A damn great MMORPG, any noob that thinks it is a single player game you are a joke to the gaming community. It will loose subs, and it will gain subs Just like every mmo out there. Where it is going so strong it is not going anywhere, the game will just keep getting better and better. 

 

Novice member. Number of posts = 1. Mr Lucas, I thought we warned you about this type of thing, haven't you got some classic movies to rui...I mean remaster or something?

I cancelled the second I realized they are dedicating themselves to making a PvP game.

Hmm, we have the only MMO on the market that has a plot and storyline and real decisions and characters.  I know!  Let's COMPLETELY FUCKING IGNORE THAT and try to compete with the hundreds of other PvP games out there.

My hand and my face hurt.

As expected but I think the sub numbers are already below 1 million and dropping at a rate of 100k/month. Game has simply little lasting appeal, unless you like to reroll alts.

I'm starting to suspect that some games have kind of a ,"Side Show", effect on people. The outrageous drawings all over the side of the Freak Show tent hype a monstrous creature you can view at your own peril for a mere dollar. You pay and go into the tent to see a 500 pound woman who needs a shave sleeping in front of a television. You leave a dollar lighter and a little cheated.

Originally posted by Suzie_Ford

According to a new report from Cowan and Company, subscription numbers for Star Wars: The Old Republic are in decline. According to the report, subscriptions peaked in February with 1.7 million subscribers. At the end of Q1 of fiscal year 2013, the analyst group is predicting a fall in subscriptions to 1.25 million.

"We believe that the apparent decline in subscribers is most likely due to a lack of 'end-game' content for the title, meaning that players who hit the level cap have few compelling options in terms of ongoing game play," he noted. "While the game got off to a good start, the relatively light amount of end-game content does appear to be taking a toll."

"We believe EA is attempting to address the end-game content issue, including a recent major game update, but momentum appears to have stalled and we believe it is prudent to adopt a more conservative forecast on subscribers at this time."

Source: Gamasutra

This is a white-knight analyst projection, very probably based on information directly out of the EA boardroom. Honestly, no-one can project the number of subscriptions 1 year in advance with any certainty - and surely not based on numbers from TorStatus.net, hehe. But that is exactly what this analyst claims to have done.

The purpose of such an analysis fuelled with infos from the boardroom is usually to keep shareholders confident. It's a classical tactic. Mix a bit of bad information for shareholders (here: numbers are in decline) with a nice chunk of good information (here: we're projecting 1.25 million subs in March 2013).

For anyone questioning whether the latter is good information: just do the math (1.25 millions subs x 12 months x $/€ 15 per month) and you get a nice chunk of revenue. With that number the bad information doesn't sound that bad anymore. And making bad information sound good was the objective of that analysis from the get-go. :)

I'll give it till Fall/Autumn until some of SW:TOR's Low Populated servers become "Trail Servers".

60% of my guild have left the game already since launch with at least 50% of them saying they wont play it again

The funny thing about this is that, the fans of the game and the people that are Biodrones will do the same thing that the NGEr's did in SWG. The ones that play on one of the few heavy servers will continue to believe and try and prove that the game is healthy and nothing is wrong, even though they will see servers drying up and dieing all around them.

It's funny, SWG pre-cu had 25 very healthy servers back then and once the NGE hit, that was cut down to 13. At the end there were really only a few that had any type of population on them and the game was doomed. TOR has like 218 servers and only a handful of servers that reach heavy or better. The rest sit at standard and light and this game is only 5 months old and we have people proclaiming to everyone the game is doing absolutly great.

I think some people need to stop drinking the EA/Bioware kool-aid.

Originally posted by Nevulus

Originally posted by dontadow

But EA is already in the whole 250 million on this game. And where did you get this magical 250 million figure from, do you work in their accounting department? Oh you made it up, i see  I"m sure that they probably had forcast 5 million (half of wow at least) or maybe even a quarter 2.5, to get their money back in a reasonable 5 year span Once again who is your accountant? Which analyst firm do you work for? Where are you getting these off-the-wall numbers from? Oh I see you made it up. AT this rate, they are looking at at least double the time of whatever they forecast, and that equals 1k + jobs More made up math? And the 1k jobs you are referring to, that is the rumor correct? You know the rumor broadcasted by some site trying to drive in web traffic.  All of the cuts weren't from swtor, which means they still think it will make money for them, just not in a reasonable amount of time to keep that 250 million sitting alone on the books. There goes that 250 mill number again. Where is your official documentation stating the exact costs of SWTOR and show me the math and your accounting background to qualify you as an official spokesman for EA Accounting Department, because I have quite a few questions for you. Oh I see you just made all this up for forum fighting.

 

answers in red

You're right about the 250 million number.  It's speculation.  Perhaps EA would be kind enough to release the actual figure and save us all some trouble.  That way we can proceed directly to bashing each other with something solid, instead of this wet noodle.

One thing I am pretty certain of though is that it was damned expensive to make.  That amount of marketing and voice work doesn't come cheap.  Whatever the figure is, I'm sure it dwarfs pretty much every other MMO out there.

if this game moves to 1.25 million subs, it will be an improvement, despite what anything else says.

This analyst fails to realize how much of an impact GW2, Tera, and WoW's Pandaria expansion will have on Swtor.. The numbers will drop drastically.

I agree with Teala  but i think the numbers are half of even that....

Originally posted by adam_nox

if this game moves to 1.25 million subs, it will be an improvement, despite what anything else says.

I couldn't agree with you, or the poster right after you, any more. I'm not buying the 1.25 million figure. For some reason, a buzzer goes off in my head when I read that figure. I would guess, based on nothing but gut-feeling and speculation, that SWTOR would be lucky to have 500,000 active subscribers.

You can easily, and rightfully, call me FOS because my statement is only supported by conjecture, however, I was right about SWTOR not having the initial figures they claimed (1.7 million.)

Originally posted by grinr

I cancelled the second I realized they are dedicating themselves to making a PvP game.

Hmm, we have the only MMO on the market that has a plot and storyline and real decisions and characters.  I know!  Let's COMPLETELY FUCKING IGNORE THAT and try to compete with the hundreds of other PvP games out there.

My hand and my face hurt.

HAHAHAHAHA *spits coke* HAHAHAHAHAAAA