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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » 2012 MMO Predictions

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119 posts found
  77lolmac77

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/14/11
Posts: 498

 
OP  2/14/12 11:53:09 AM#1
Just post some things you think are going to happen in the MMO world this year. -Guild Wars 2 will be popular for a month, then forgotten about - The Secret World will be exactly like Age of Conan -SWTOR will retain 500,000+ subs -Dominus will take over as the de facto PvP game from GW2 - Mortal Online will finally die
  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

2/14/12 12:20:11 PM#2

{mod edit}

I disagree on Guild Wars 2... it'll likely be approaching at least three million sales by years end (assuming late spring, early summer release). With it's no subscription model and MMO-changing philosophy and already demonstrated highly polished combat system, dynamic event system, eradication of the trinity, etc. it'll set the new baseline in MMO development at one critical area... it'll make other developers willing to actually try new things and not regurgitate the old MMO model any longer.

 

(Nice, scored first post!)

Oderint, dum metuant.

  Puremallace

Novice Member

Joined: 2/02/11
Posts: 1929

2/14/12 12:24:35 PM#3

. ArenaNet will learn how fast people can burn through content and then turn on game, but who cares after you buy the box YOU CAN'T UNSUB lol

 

. TSW is made by Funcom so my hopes are mehhhhhhhhhhhhh, but lets hope we get some new stuff and modern day mmorpg finally

 

. TOR post declines in 2nd qtr of this year and after offering transfer for 25$ a pop people realize just how many people they have lost

 

. Intimidated by Rift the CEO of Blizzard throws himself out of a hightower and in mourning they shut down WoW. Also Ghostcrawler is put on trial by an international court for being such a terrible dev and sentenced to death by stoning.

  User Deleted
2/14/12 12:25:17 PM#4

i think a year from now.....

gw2 will be approaching 3mil boxes sold

swtor will be holding strong at 800k subs 

tsw will have 600k subs and be doing nicely

tera will have 300k and holding its own

 

 

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

2/14/12 12:29:17 PM#5
Originally posted by Puremallace

. ArenaNet will learn how fast people can burn through content and then turn on game, but who cares after you buy the box YOU CAN'T UNSUB lol

 

.

They already know... that's why they're creating a game where you never actually out-level earlier content. All 24 explorer mode dungeons, for example, will be not only viable but also challenging to your character at max level due to their side-kicking system, the flattened levelling and power curve and the lack of a gear treadmill when you hit max level. Basically, you won't be erecting walls behind you to the older content as you level, so the whole game will always be available and worth going to.

 

They're also going to be continually adding in new events, so going back to a lower level area may suddenly trigger things you haven't seen even though you've been there time and time again.

Oderint, dum metuant.

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 19496

2/14/12 12:30:20 PM#6
Originally posted by 77lolmac77
Just post some things you think are going to happen in the MMO world this year. -Guild Wars 2 will be popular for a month, then forgotten about - The Secret World will be exactly like Age of Conan -SWTOR will retain 500,000+ subs -Dominus will take over as the de facto PvP game from GW2 - Mortal Online will finally die

Diablo 3 will steal away a lot of MMO players and start a new trend of online co-op RPGs with *some* MMO elements.

  myrmx

Novice Member

Joined: 9/03/08
Posts: 94

2/14/12 12:34:50 PM#7

i predict a long shot but still :

-Diablo 3 RMT will provide 100% more revenue than box sales after a year

-Planetside 2 will become the new pvp craving

-Darkfall 2.0 will release and not fail.

 

Ok the third one is a stretch... i still hold firmly on the 2 other tough :)

 

  MosesZD

Novice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

2/14/12 12:38:47 PM#8
Originally posted by 77lolmac77
Just post some things you think are going to happen in the MMO world this year. -Guild Wars 2 will be popular for a month, then forgotten about - The Secret World will be exactly like Age of Conan -SWTOR will retain 500,000+ subs -Dominus will take over as the de facto PvP game from GW2 - Mortal Online will finally die

 

Sorry dude.  I played GW including every expansion.   I think everything they've discussed is an improvement over the original game and I, like my old GW guildies, will be back and involved for years.   Just like we were last time.    And since we won't have be subbed to enjoy the game, it'll be (once agian) a very fun diversion we won't feel pressured to constantly play because we're wasting $15 a month if we're not playing.

 

As for SWTOR...    We'll see.   They started with a huge base, about 1.7 million in first month.   But, they're losing people as fast as Warhammer.

So, 1.7 million is to X and 800K is to 100K in six months time...    I'm saying X = 200K in six months.  

 

And I'm saying this because I'm watching the sales, DESPITE THE HUGE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN THAT'S EVERYWHERE, have dropped to 36K last week, of which just under 9K were in North America....  (Week ended February 4th, 2012.)  Think about it...  Under 9,000 sales for an entire week in North America.   DESPITE a huge marketing campain...

Plus the server traffic is WAY down.   People are just gone...   There are now 45 servers that rarely get out of 'light' status and only 12 that regularly get into 'heavy.'    And that's DESPITE BioWare lowering the the 'moderate' and 'heavy' thresholds to artificially increase the apparent populations.

Schadenfreude -- the joy I feel in the pain of the BioDrones who trolled everyone who had issues with the game -- technical, visual, etc. -- and refused to acknowledge the huge, game-breaking, dead-ender flaws this game had on release.    I especially lover reading the posts of the people that called me a troll for pointing out all the bugs, flaws and what-not who are now doing the same thing and quitting, only after dropping a 60-day card on a game they've grown to hate...  :)

  AdamTM

Novice Member

Joined: 5/05/05
Posts: 1395

I'M PUNCHING YOUR SALAD!!!!

2/14/12 12:39:35 PM#9

- TSW will be the break-out MMO for 2012 for good and bad. Much trolling on the forums about Funcom will comence. It will have moderate sales and stay relatively stable with a retention of approx. 70% past month 3.

- GW2 will sell at least 4-6 million boxes at launch and stay moderately successful with a slight upwards trend of sold boxes.

- We will finally see numbers for SWTOR retention past Q1, which will be, per my prediction 2 months ago, around 30-40%, Bioware will release jesus-patch

- ArcheAge will be officially announced for the western market, but US only.

- Pandas come out for Xmass (like every Xpac ever) and sell like hot cakes (in the east)

- Titan will be announced by Blizzard

  Bunks

Novice Member

Joined: 1/08/12
Posts: 987

2/14/12 12:49:26 PM#10

GW2 will sell over 3 million in 3 months, and another million before the first expansion. And will be the most PVP centric game on the market.

TSW will hurt SWTOR more than anyone imagined. But still only hold a steady 600-900k subs over time.

SWTOR will hit 900k subs by march, 700k by april, then 500k when TSW is released. But no one will ever know the true numbers till it closes its doors in less than a year.

Tera will be a big dud.

And WOW will see it's numbers steadily decline every quater at a very small and steady rate after a slight spike after MOP.

D3 will be even more succesful than anyone expected(and I am not a fan of the game)

  Iselin

The Listener

Joined: 3/04/08
Posts: 3778

2/14/12 12:59:46 PM#11
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Diablo 3 will steal away a lot of MMO players and start a new trend of online co-op RPGs with *some* MMO elements.

D3 is just a prettied-up version of D2 with a few playability improvements (no more town scrolls, no need for mana potions because it regenerates really fast.) It'll have the same appeal that the previous Diablos had: a quick dungeon crawl that you can play in tiny bits when you don't have time for a real MMO.

 

And lol @ "start a new trend"... like D1 didn't do that in the 90s :)

 

And I'm not knocking it...I will definitely get it and play it. But it'll have about as much impact on my MMO time as Madden or NHL12 have...zilch.

  Ozmodan

Elite Member

Joined: 2/27/07
Posts: 6632

2/14/12 1:02:52 PM#12

I think GW2 will do quite well.  It is essentially a pvp game and it will keep those that like that part of the genre happy.

SWTOR will be merging servers by end of the year.  Just not enough content in the game and they won't add enough to matter.

TERA will do well initially then die, it will be heading to f2p by years end.

TSW is something of an enigma.  The studio that is making it has had release problems before, not sure if they learned from their mistakes.  It could be a sleeper here.

Titan will NOT be announced this year, easy to understand the reason for that, Blizzcon was canceled.

Wow will do well again when their upcoming expansion releases.  Hope it has more content than Cataclysm had.

Diablo III will do better than any of the above games.  Blizzard will still maintain it's kingship of this genre.

Eve will win the best MMO of the year reward again as nothing released in the upcoming year will be marginally different that what we have had before.

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 19496

2/14/12 1:08:27 PM#13
Originally posted by Iselin
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Diablo 3 will steal away a lot of MMO players and start a new trend of online co-op RPGs with *some* MMO elements.

D3 is just a prettied-up version of D2 with a few playability improvements (no more town scrolls, no need for mana potions because it regenerates really fast.) It'll have the same appeal that the previous Diablos had: a quick dungeon crawl that you can play in tiny bits when you don't have time for a real MMO.

The "same appeal" is pretty strong. Look at Diablo 2 and how long people have been playing that game. Do not under-estimate prettied-up version.

A prettied-up version of D2 beat many MMOs in terms of the fun factor.

  angerbeaver

Elite Member

Joined: 6/15/06
Posts: 612

Games Played:Ultima OnlineRappelzLOTROWoWGWGW2SWTOR

2/14/12 1:16:16 PM#14

I have only seen a little on TERA so far, but I don't think it will last long after release.

SWTOR will be a failure that survives because there are people that enjoy it. I only say it is a failure based on all the hype (sort of like Rift).

GW2 will be strong through 2012 since it is releasing in Fall I think?

WoW Panda will meet with tons of hatred, but of course it will survive.

Lotro next release will not likely make a huge impact in generating new players, but it will keep the existing players. Although GW2 may steal quite a bit since they are both f2p.

kryles Xfire Miniprofile
  Meltdown

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/09/03
Posts: 1191

2/14/12 1:17:02 PM#15

TSW - Will be more successful than AoC at launch, no WoW number subs, but will have a very dedicated following (maybe 600,000+ subs)

 

GW2 - Will disappoint a lot of players, but huge marketing and only depending on initial box sales will make the game A LOT of money... thus a success.

 

D3 - Blizzard decides that D3 isn't ready to be released and revamps the entire game (again), estimated release date 2013. 

 

SWTOR - Retains decent subs, attracts more new players into the MMO-genre (for better or worse) probably 300k subs.

 

TERA - Biggest flop of 2012, NA servers shut down in 2013.

 

 

 

"They essentially want to say 'Correlation proves Causation' when it's just not true." - Sovrath

  WhiteLantern

Novice Member

Joined: 1/27/10
Posts: 2778

2/14/12 1:28:12 PM#16

I haven't used my crystal balls in a while, but here goes:

GW2 will sell less than 1million at launch but will be the only game to steadily increase in sales since WoW.

Tera will sell less than 500k copies suffer less than 25% retention.

TOR will be at 700-800k subs and holding by Q3.

WoW will lose another 1.5 million subs and Mists will be seen as a failure.

TSW (copy/paste Tera)

Rift will add subs this year. Not many, but a noticeable amount.

WH40K will be cancelled officially.

WAR will shut down.

 

 

 

I want a mmorpg where people have gone through misery, have gone through school stuff and actually have had sex even. -sagil

  77lolmac77

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/14/11
Posts: 498

 
OP  2/14/12 1:31:53 PM#17
*note* This isnt trolling I meant this thread to be about making predictions that, while not probable, arent inconceivable.

I truly beleive GW2 is getting way too hyped and its going to disappoint a lot of people. "Oh you can do the older content again but on harder difficulty" Ok, that doesnt change the fact that its still OLD content, aka something Ive done before. The only reason it will sell good is due to the B2P model. But as far as retaining active players who log in? Im giving it 3 months before everyone realizes by taking away all the grind and time-sinks there will be nothing to do real fast.
  User Deleted
2/14/12 1:35:08 PM#18
Originally posted by 77lolmac77
*note* This isnt trolling I meant this thread to be about making predictions that, while not probable, arent inconceivable.

I truly beleive GW2 is getting way too hyped and its going to disappoint a lot of people. "Oh you can do the older content again but on harder difficulty" Ok, that doesnt change the fact that its still OLD content, aka something Ive done before. The only reason it will sell good is due to the B2P model. But as far as retaining active players who log in? Im giving it 3 months before everyone realizes by taking away all the grind and time-sinks there will be nothing to do real fast.

i would tend to agree with that. but it being the last big game to release this year. people will be so sick of jumping from game to game that they will probable end up playing the one that is free.

  DJJazzy

Novice Member

Joined: 5/18/11
Posts: 2074

2/14/12 1:37:18 PM#19
Originally posted by 77lolmac77
*note* This isnt trolling I meant this thread to be about making predictions that, while not probable, arent inconceivable.

I truly beleive GW2 is getting way too hyped and its going to disappoint a lot of people. "Oh you can do the older content again but on harder difficulty" Ok, that doesnt change the fact that its still OLD content, aka something Ive done before. The only reason it will sell good is due to the B2P model. But as far as retaining active players who log in? Im giving it 3 months before everyone realizes by taking away all the grind and time-sinks there will be nothing to do real fast.

well 3 months would be 2 months longer than I've played almost every other mmo

plus I can return whenever I want, and when they put out an expansion or content patch and not lose any ground to current players

  darker70

Novice Member

Joined: 10/21/08
Posts: 820

A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five.
Groucho Marx

2/14/12 1:37:56 PM#20

GW2 will herald a change in the way we percieve a Mo with it's dynamic content quest system and will trounce SWTOR in it's initial first release,and herald a seachange regarding B2P online games.

SWTOR will keep 800k subs but not enough for EA so i suspect a F2P model late 2012.

TSW  Will attract a player base fed up of the same old regurgitated rubbish and no doubt former SWTOR players and meld the modern world with Sci-fI gendre.

Dominus and PS2 will fight it out for the PVP crown.

Archeage once again takes us back to halcyon days of  fully realised worlds, but incompassed in a stunning virtual pixelated canvas or in other words rather good graphics.

WOW will lose subs and finally fade when they release the my little pony tie in expansion,and when Titan is finally revealed.

Rift will continue to hold it's head above water but will mainly be financed by it's Chinese deal and go full F2P late 2012.

Furthermore Vanguard will go F2P,STO will march on and get some much needed planetary exploration content,The Repopulation will attract former SWG-PRE NGE veterans and become the biggest niche game ever !!

 

 

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