Who the heck uses Xfire anymore? I stopped using them after they were bought and and starting making pay 2 win arcade games.

Originally posted by dubyahite
I do kind of see your point that this is the closest thing we can get to real numbers. And sure, it's interesting to look at, but I would never draw any kind of conclusion about the state of the game from that.

Someone said that tor is now on the decline because of what xfire shows. That is a conclusion that you just can't draw from these numbers. Others have made similar statements.

I would actually value Vgchartz way above xfire though. Their methodology is better than Vgchartz "sample".

Ya i see your and the others points too. :) Like i said, this topic just peaked my curiosity and i thought it was interesting.

And yes way way to early to even try to see anything from anywhere yet.

Anyhow done for tonight, bed time have a good night all.

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

This. I used to be an avid Xfire user, until they changed owners, and hardly ever updated the client. You will notice no new games ever top the charts anymore, it's always just the same World of warcraft, league of legends, call of duty 4 or 2, and right now SWTOR. But in a week or two it will be whatever other game people decide to play that use xfire. It doesn't show the real populations well at all, it shows a tiny fraction of users. It's okay to see trends sometimes, but usually it fails horribly at showing real population trends.

Originally posted by DarLorkar

Originally posted by Lidane

Originally posted by Robokapp

 xfire correlations always held SOME accuracy.

Correlation =/= Causation.

That's the point. Even if TOR was #1 on XFire from now until George Lucas finally writes a decent script, it wouldn't make the numbers any more reliable. Self-selection bias ruins every bit of data that XFire provides. It just does.

Only if you are trying to compare it to something it is not:P

And again, if you look at x-fire stats for any game that they use there,  every 2 weeks for a month or so. Are you really saying that you could not see some info?

Either flat, it remains basically the same, or growth more players and hours played, or less hours and players?

I think you would get some  info that way:) I do not expect it to be a scientific poll of the entire gaming population of the world:) Just another piece of info.  Yup... another piece of info that is only applicable to within the X-fire community.

People that use it are trying to se trends, not predict the next coming with near perfect accuracy:) And for that, a piece of info on games represented there, it works just fine.

Originally posted by DarLorkar

Originally posted by Lidane

Originally posted by DarLorkar

 Are you really saying that you could not see some info?

The only thing you're going to see is self-selected information about XFire users. You're not going to get anywhere close to an accurate picture one way or the other.

As a statistical tool, that makes it useless.

Heh i am not saying it is a statictical tool, (might get slapped by some of your professors) . Not saying it is accurate to within any number percent. Not saying i would put money on it even:)

Just that it is a place to check stats on gamers that have bought the game in question, that they are playing the game in question, and that it shows some numbers that you can watch for a length of time and get a trend. Even if it is a trend only for x-fire, even if it is a small trend, it is still a trend.

 

So, you are admitting that it's purely a guess.  Which means it's pretty much just self-serving bias rather than actual trends.

it's not "purely" a guess. It's an educated guess.

Originally posted by Robokapp

it's not "purely" a guess. It's an educated guess.

It's a guess made up of numbers from an unreliable, self-selected source of information.

Again -- even if it showed that TOR was the #1 game for the next 5 years, it still wouldn't matter. It's a bad statistical tool. Period.

Originally posted by Lidane

Originally posted by Robokapp

it's not "purely" a guess. It's an educated guess.

It's a guess made up of numbers from an unreliable, self-selected source of information.

Again -- even if it showed that TOR was the #1 game for the next 5 years, it still wouldn't matter. It's a bad statistical tool. Period.

unreliable =/= false

dot dot dot

we know its false. the question is...is it 'close enough'. even scientific polls have a small error.

for what we are using this data, do we need it 5-digits verified?

Originally posted by Robokapp

unreliable =/= false

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/unreliable

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/false

If the numbers and the information are unreliable, then any predictions based on that information will be false. It's that simple.

Why? Because you don't have solid facts, just conjecture. And again-- this is in both good AND bad directions. The XFire numbers could be insanely huge for TOR and it wouldn't matter. Unreliable information isn't worth using.

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Originally posted by Robokapp
we know its false. the question is...is it 'close enough'. 

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No, it's not. Furthermore, it's stupid to even use the information NINE DAYS after the game was released. Using XFire after nine days to claim that the game's already in decline is stupid. So is using XFire to claim that it's the greatest thing since sliced bread.

WTF ever happened to letting the free month play itself out and then seeing where things stand?

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for what we are using this data, do we need it 5-digits verified?

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Originally posted by Robokapp

we know its false. the question is...is it 'close enough'. even scientific polls have a small error.

for what we are using this data, do we need it 5-digits verified?

It is useless even if it is exactly true.

Of course people spend more time in any game on holidays and the first week it is released.

So the whole thread is pointless and proves nothing one way or the other, even if X-fire would be 100% right.

I'm dying to say "xfire is reliable enough for my needs"...since you keep saying "xfire is not reliable enough for my needs".

Originally posted by OkhamsRazor

Originally posted by hayes303

I know its been said before, but neither I nor anyone I even know uses xfire anymore.

Neither do I . I find this thread a bit weird because I recently saw one quoting x-fire stats to prove ToR had already had half the number of people playing on it that WoW had .

Seems to me people quote bogus x-fire numbers for thier own ends .

Its pretty easy to see how ToR is doing Google it and look under news you'll see plenty of pages saying how fast its selling and how the numbers keep growing and how its already broken records set for sales of a new mmo .

Who needs X-fire as a barometer for success when its obvious in no way have sales stalled or shown any sign of slowing .

I did exactly that and on the first 2 google pages there are just 1 link about "SWTOR breaking records over the holidays", which is the "more then 1 million copies sold" news,  and another one "SWTOR hits 1 million sales", so it's basically 2 links in 2 result pages about the same news. Hardly what you claim.

Originally posted by Thillian

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

I do not use it, I polled the gamers in my workplace (over 600 of us) a handful use it, I asked my Guild, none of them use it, I asked my Guild in STO, none of them use it, I asked my mum, she does not use it.

X-fire for metrics if the same as Neilson Ratings for TV... Great for biasing info to your own viewpoint.

the only people who know how many they have, playing and logging in, is EA and Bioware, and trust me they are not about to release those figures.

Wait until the End of year Fiscal Report

They just added 29th. It seems to be on a slight decline, and it's already 11 days of data, which is not much but it's something.

Reasons might be:

1) SWTOR players are stopping using xFire

2) SWTOR players are playing less

3) SWTOr players are stopping playing

Is there any issue with xFire and SWTOR that could explain 1) ?

Also, seems there is not an influx of new players using xFire to compensate for above reasons.

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Originally posted by Panther2103

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Originally posted by jmcdermottuk
Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

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This. I used to be an avid Xfire user, until they changed owners, and hardly ever updated the client. You will notice no new games ever top the charts anymore, it's always just the same World of warcraft, league of legends, call of duty 4 or 2, and right now SWTOR. But in a week or two it will be whatever other game people decide to play that use xfire. It doesn't show the real populations well at all, it shows a tiny fraction of users. It's okay to see trends sometimes, but usually it fails horribly at showing real population trends.

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"You will notice no new games ever top the charts anymore"

the fact SWTOR is in the top 5 as we speak is proof positive you are not being completely honest here...nice try though. Last time I checked SWTOR is a new game.

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Originally posted by Vato26

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Originally posted by DarLorkar

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Your belief has nothing to do with the validity of the X-fire statistics when you try to apply them to the non-X-fire using population.  The facts still remain, and have yet to be refuted by you nor the other self-serving pro-X-fire people:  No one knows the percentage of the total gaming population that uses X-fire, therefore it is pure self-serving bias to use these statistics outside the X-fire using community. 
In the statistic's trade, that is known as "Bad statistics" and would immediately get you laughed out of the room for presenting them.

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Using your own words, No one knows the total game population, except the dev's who are not talking.
But we DO know how many x-fire users have and play a game when they log in with it.
Using that info you CAN see a trend over time of that part of the game population in that game.
Or are you saying that that is not true? Now if that is true, trying to refute it or ignore it, a sample of people that HAVE to own the game, and HAVE to be playing it to get the info. How can you turn around and say it is worthless?
It is what it is. A sample of people, that use x-fire, that own the game, and that played it.
Sounds like a pretty good piece of info to me. Would i make any overarching predictions on it like the OP? No, but i would for sure take it into account along with other info i had.

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No.  Using the X-fire info, you can see the trends WITHIN X-fire.  It doesn't show any trends outside of X-fire as there are FAR too many variables that haven't been accounted for.  That's a fact.
Also, what you are describing is nowhere near proper sampling technique if you are trying to use this data outside of X-fire.

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I played AION, RIFT and WAR....all games had Huge releases and reflected on xfire. a few months later, they all nose dived on xfire and servers were either closing/mergining or ghost towns. xfire does indeed reflect trends in gaming. it doesnt control or dictate -- simply reflects whats happening by relaying the gaming trends of a sample of gamers. we can predict, with a fair degree of certainty what is in store for SWTOR based on how it does on xfire. If it isnt top 5 in the next 3 months, it is trending downward and not gaining subs.

And it really is as simple as that.