http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

By that logic no polling mechanism would be relevant because "not everyone was answering the poll".

Originally posted by Yamota

http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

what does that mean?, and AION? that game got like 10 servers or less at launch in NA, swtor have more than 100, with a queue. And the population in swtor is growing everyday, is not droping, and they have the 1st expansion early next month, so again, whats the point of this?

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

The game is almost always the most popular the first weeks after launch so if the game does not pick up in the next couple of weeks then this is indeed the peak. Specially considering that many people are free during the christmas holidays and all.

Originally posted by onthestick

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

The game is almost always the most popular the first weeks after launch so if the game does not pick up in the next couple of weeks then this is indeed the peak. Specially considering that many people are free during the christmas holidays and all.

Free..... spending time with family.  I spent more time not playing over the past few days then I did in preorder...  I no longer use Xfire to track my playtime anyway.. I just keep the sig so I can pick out my posts a lot easier.

AION servers probably hold ten times the amount of players than SWTOR servers.

Xfire was a great metric of player activity just a few days ago, watch that change now.

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by onthestick

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.

Thanks for just confirming what i said earlier.

Originally posted by Thillian

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

But it isn't a random sampling of the mmo communities, since only certain types of players would ever bother to use it.

Originally posted by onthestick

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

Was meant to be tongue in cheek.  I think there's a grain of truth to it for some, but an exaggeration to be funny, at least.

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

By that logic no polling mechanism would be relevant because "not everyone was answering the poll".

What you're doing isn't within miles of "polling".  Xfire breaks the very first rule about the validity of polling.

"When you are confronted with a new poll, ask the following questions about it:

• Is the sample scientifically selected or self-selected? If self-selected, the poll is only good for entertainment.
• What is the poll's margin of error? Are any comparisons reported?such as changes in popularity, record highs or lows, or comparisons between candidates?which lie within twice the margin of error, that is, the confidence interval? If so, they are statistically insignificant.
• Have other polls on this issue been done recently? If so, it is a good idea to compare the new poll with these others:
  • If the results of the new poll are significantly different from those of most other polls?that is, a difference greater than the confidence interval?then the new poll is probably unreliable.
  • If the results of the new poll are within the confidence interval from those of most other polls, then those results are probably reliable, even if they are not statistically significant as individuals.

If the poll you are confronted with fails at any step of this checklist, or if you can't find the answer to these questions in the report, then your confidence in the poll should be much less than 95%."

Xfire isn't polling, by any stretch of the imagination--or rather, it's no more or less of a "poll" than any other online method...not very much.

Originally posted by SideTraKd

Originally posted by Thillian

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

But it isn't a random sampling of the mmo communities, since only certain types of players would ever bother to use it.

Yes my last sentence was pointing that out. However, even pre-election estimates does not have totally random sampling, since not everyone is willing to answer the questions. It might affect the result slighly, but not significantly.

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

By that logic no polling mechanism would be relevant because "not everyone was answering the poll".

 Self selected polling methods are irrelevant. Random polls, which xfire is not, are sometimes useful but not always. After all Dewey deated Truman right?

I have never used xFire. The more I think about it, nobody I know uses it.

yikes. same guys touting Xfire numbers the other day when their fav game was at 50% of WoW's users now say it don't matter.

Originally posted by fony

yikes. same guys touting Xfire numbers the other day when their fav game was at 50% of WoW's users now say it don't matter.

It never mattered.  Didn't to the whiners then and won't to the fans now....   to those of us who don't care (like me, who used to use Xfire)  its just something else people will choose to rave or grief about.