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World of Warcraft

World of Warcraft 

General Discussion  » Wow is dying aparently

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41 posts found
  Jupsto

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/22/07
Posts: 2107

 
OP  8/10/11 11:58:57 PM#1

http://www.fudzilla.com/games/item/23666-wow-is-dying-out

Its naive to think it will actually die, but its nice theres less people playing imo because blizzard are douchebags and its such an overated game.

My blog:

  Robokapp

Hard Core Member

Joined: 11/15/09
Posts: 4589

The only luck I had today was to have you as my opponent.

8/11/11 12:00:45 AM#2

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

  Haegemon

Novice Member

Joined: 1/21/10
Posts: 266

8/11/11 12:01:54 AM#3
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

 

Now thats just completely unfounded and unrealistic...

 

 

Aion will shut down well before WoW does.

Lets Push Things Forward

I knew I would live to design games at age 7, issue 5 of Nintendo Power.

Support games with subs when you believe in their potential, even in spite of their flaws.

  marinrider

Novice Member

Joined: 4/18/06
Posts: 1574

8/11/11 12:08:35 AM#4
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

To expect the rate of loss to stay constant is naive.  The article states that WoW has lost 1 million users in 9 months.  (approx).  At the current rate if it says in a sort of x=-y line, and assuming WoW has around 12mill subs and Aion has about 4mil (including Asia, where its popular) it will only take WoW 6 years to be down to Aions 4mil.  But this math isnt realistic because the rate of loss will speed up as new games come out and as WoW becomes even more bland.  So say its 1 mill for this 9 months, but in 18 months they could be losing 1.5 mil per 9 months, or even 2mil.

The whole thing is speculation but I think that WoW has past its golden age and is now on a slow decline.

 

Disclaimer: Do NOT take any of my numbers as fact.  Its pure guesswork to prove a point (using commonly tossed around numbers).

  odinsrath

Novice Member

Joined: 11/29/10
Posts: 839

8/11/11 12:13:57 AM#5

this is a bad win and win more for wow in the long run..bad that they are loseing subs atm ..but if they decide to go f2p it would be a huge win for them and bring in even more subs and twice as many cash shops..i can see it now lol looking thru a catalog full of stuff like it was a walmart web-site..i hate wow but irl they will always be around no matter how easy-mode their game is..kids love it and even more if it was free lol

  Unshra

Novice Member

Joined: 6/23/05
Posts: 382

8/11/11 12:16:25 AM#6
Originally posted by marinrider
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

To expect the rate of loss to stay constant is naive.  The article states that WoW has lost 1 million users in 9 months.  (approx).  At the current rate if it says in a sort of x=-y line, and assuming WoW has around 12mill subs and Aion has about 4mil (including Asia, where its popular) it will only take WoW 6 years to be down to Aions 4mil.  But this math isnt realistic because the rate of loss will speed up as new games come out and as WoW becomes even more bland.  So say its 1 mill for this 9 months, but in 18 months they could be losing 1.5 mil per 9 months, or even 2mil.

The whole thing is speculation but I think that WoW has past its golden age and is now on a slow decline.

 

Disclaimer: Do NOT take any of my numbers as fact.  Its pure guesswork to prove a point (using commonly tossed around numbers).

 So what point where you trying to prove, considering Robo's comment was tongue in cheek.


Because flying a Minmatar ship is like going down a flight of stairs on an office chair while firing an Uzi.

  Dibdabs

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/29/08
Posts: 2447

8/11/11 4:03:14 AM#7
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

Pretty much says it all.

  jpnz

Elite Member

Joined: 6/29/06
Posts: 3543

8/11/11 4:14:40 AM#8
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

Not sure about you but I intend to live forever. :P

 

/serious talk

I think the bigger story is, where are these ex-WoW players going?

For the vast majority of players, WoW was their first (and probably only) MMO. But these millions of players (only 30% get above level 10) sort of disappear and do not pick up another MMO.

Gdemami -
Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  tinuelle

Novice Member

Joined: 12/10/08
Posts: 290

It's all about pushing the right buttons

8/11/11 4:20:14 AM#9
Originally posted by jpnz

/serious talk

I think the bigger story is, where are these ex-WoW players going?

For the vast majority of players, WoW was their first (and probably only) MMO. But these millions of players (only 30% get above level 10) sort of disappear and do not pick up another MMO.

Most realize that there other things to do in life than chasing pixels in a screen.......... and quit.

Others, like me, are chasing the pixel ride hoping for the right pixel combination to appear that will make the old world which once was the beginning come alive again somehow............

  Chimps

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/19/07
Posts: 201

8/11/11 4:27:45 AM#10
Originally posted by Haegemon
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

 

Now thats just completely unfounded and unrealistic...

 

 

Aion will shut down well before WoW does.

Looking at the games amazing changes over the years it seems Aion will outlive WoW.

Aions developers has a plan set out for the game and that plan is beyond incredible.

The only problem Aion has right now is it requires good computers to run it. Many people can't afford those good computers. If we all could afford those computers then Aion would have a much bigger playerbase.

  Phry

Elite Member

Joined: 7/01/04
Posts: 5210

8/11/11 4:33:43 AM#11
Originally posted by Chimps
Originally posted by Haegemon
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

 

Now thats just completely unfounded and unrealistic...

 

 

Aion will shut down well before WoW does.

Looking at the games amazing changes over the years it seems Aion will outlive WoW.

Aions developers has a plan set out for the game and that plan is beyond incredible.

The only problem Aion has right now is it requires good computers to run it. Many people can't afford those good computers. If we all could afford those computers then Aion would have a much bigger playerbase.

unlikely, Aion's problems arent really the hardware requirements, but actual gameplay issues, imo, its not really a game thats designed for 'western' players, the excessive grind and the pvp options don't really do it any favours.. 

  Fir3line

Novice Member

Joined: 9/18/08
Posts: 794

8/11/11 4:35:28 AM#12

I reckon this player base leaving is mainly the PvP community such as myself tbh, many ppl feel like they've been shat uppon from blizzard.

The current state of PvP in that game is a complete joke, has been for years. but damn is worst than it ever was.

7 Month seasons, ladder exploits, classes that basically rape anything in less than 10 secconds while poping every immunity cooldown they have. Its beyond retarded

"I am not a robot. I am a unicorn."

  Phry

Elite Member

Joined: 7/01/04
Posts: 5210

8/11/11 4:40:14 AM#13
Originally posted by Fir3line

I reckon this player base leaving is mainly the PvP community such as myself tbh, many ppl feel like they've been shat uppon from blizzard.

The current state of PvP in that game is a complete joke, has been for years. but damn is worst than it ever was.

7 Month seasons, ladder exploits, classes that basically rape anything in less than 10 secconds while poping every immunity cooldown they have. Its beyond retarded

Frankly, i've no idea why anyone would play WoW for the PVP.. its always been, imo at least.. completely pants... even Darkfall handles PVP better than WoW... though i've yet to see any fantasy game handle PvP competently.

  Fir3line

Novice Member

Joined: 9/18/08
Posts: 794

8/11/11 4:44:10 AM#14
Originally posted by Phry
Originally posted by Fir3line

I reckon this player base leaving is mainly the PvP community such as myself tbh, many ppl feel like they've been shat uppon from blizzard.

The current state of PvP in that game is a complete joke, has been for years. but damn is worst than it ever was.

7 Month seasons, ladder exploits, classes that basically rape anything in less than 10 secconds while poping every immunity cooldown they have. Its beyond retarded

Frankly, i've no idea why anyone would play WoW for the PVP.. its always been, imo at least.. completely pants... even Darkfall handles PVP better than WoW... though i've yet to see any fantasy game handle PvP competently.

Combat is responsive and mostly polished, and there is way more ppl that dont enjoy darkfall type of pvp,(which I think its complete crap, but lets not get into that).

They have competing ladders which many ppl enjoy, but me, and many more are overly exhausted with the current state they brought the game to.

"I am not a robot. I am a unicorn."

  Novusod

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/30/09
Posts: 861

8/11/11 4:50:09 AM#15
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

Popular trends usually tend to be logarithmic rather than linear. How many people still use American Online or the Netscape Navigator? Or more recently how many people abandoned Myspace in favor of Facebook? It really wasn't that long ago these popular brands were kings and then after a few short years of decline they were Irrelevant. WoW days are numbered if it can't reverse this trend.

  getona

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/14/07
Posts: 101

8/11/11 4:57:14 AM#16
Originally posted by Chimps
Originally posted by Haegemon
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

 

Now thats just completely unfounded and unrealistic...

 

 

Aion will shut down well before WoW does.

Looking at the games amazing changes over the years it seems Aion will outlive WoW.

Aions developers has a plan set out for the game and that plan is beyond incredible.

The only problem Aion has right now is it requires good computers to run it. Many people can't afford those good computers. If we all could afford those computers then Aion would have a much bigger playerbase.

No No. CryEngine 1 Game with full-on exploited / wall hacks wont outlive WoW.

  SoulSurfer

Novice Member

Joined: 6/19/08
Posts: 1255

8/11/11 4:57:44 AM#17

happens to a lot of mmo's get over it. :o

  Vrika

Elite Member

Joined: 10/03/05
Posts: 2025

8/11/11 5:14:52 AM#18

WoW lost 300 000 subcribers within last 3 months. At rate of 100 000 subcribers a month, assuming their subcriber base is now 11,1 million, the game has only about 9 years 3 months time left.

I think it might actually be realistic assumption. WoW will be more than 15 years old by then. Maybe Blizzard could start developing WoW 2 some time around 2015 in preparation for WoW's death.

  Chimps

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/19/07
Posts: 201

8/11/11 5:16:15 AM#19
Originally posted by getona
Originally posted by Chimps
Originally posted by Haegemon
Originally posted by Robokapp

at this rate in a few decades wow will have the same playerbase size as Aion. your grandchildern will get to withness wow dying but you'll be long gone by then.

 

Now thats just completely unfounded and unrealistic...

 

 

Aion will shut down well before WoW does.

Looking at the games amazing changes over the years it seems Aion will outlive WoW.

Aions developers has a plan set out for the game and that plan is beyond incredible.

The only problem Aion has right now is it requires good computers to run it. Many people can't afford those good computers. If we all could afford those computers then Aion would have a much bigger playerbase.

No No. CryEngine 1 Game with full-on exploited / wall hacks wont outlive WoW.

I think you missed out that they updated the engine and they are going to update it even more.

They are going to be using CryEngine 3 soon. So yes Aion is going to be fine. 

Also full-on exploited wall hacks? Aion is a MMORPG not a FPS, how the hell is wallhacking going to give an advantage for anyone? Are you some clueless WoW fanboy who never played Aion? In fact are you completely clueless? Wallhacks aren't going to benefit anyone in any MMORPG.

  Zolgar

Novice Member

Joined: 1/11/11
Posts: 540

Where is fancy bred? In the heart or in the head?

8/11/11 5:17:41 AM#20

Then Blizzard comes out with an engine upgrade, new combat mechanics, revamped crafting, hardcore (either permadeath and/or Full loot FFA PvP) PvP servers, and more. They gain back all subscribers and then some.

 

With Blizzards budget, I wouldn't doubt that happening, at least to some small extent anyways.

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