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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » (2 Steps Guide) How to Predict the Max Possible Subscription Numbers for upcoming MMO

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44 posts found
  MMOExposed

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/17/10
Posts: 5983

 
OP  6/29/10 4:59:51 PM#1

If you remember, I made a thread discussing the niche groups of the MMORPG genre.

http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/282112/page/1

Well. Here is how to predict the Max Possible Subs Numbers a upcoming MMO can get, before it even comes out.

1) Start at WoW's total Subs (11.5 Million right now)
2) Divide by 2 for each niche group the game  fits in, listed on the link above.
3) End Result is the max possible subs that game will have. (Things such as Bugs and Fail Hype, lower it down even feather, but these steps are for predicting the max Possible Sub numbers.)

 

 

Try it

 

Note: Charts change, as WoW Numbers rise each year. Which is why first step is important.

  GTwander

Novice Member

Joined: 3/14/09
Posts: 6125

LARPer Hunter

6/29/10 5:57:21 PM#2

It doesn't work.

Xsyon only has one competitior; Wurm Online, and if you divide 11.5 mil by 4 you get a number that Xsyon is never going to see.

Writer / Musician / Game Designer

Now Playing: Skyrim, Wurm Online, Tropico 4
Waiting On: GW2, TSW, Archeage, The Rapture

  User Deleted
6/29/10 6:02:00 PM#3

Most games don't break the 1mil mark. Very few games that aren't WoW, actually have.

So, by this inaccurate thread, 99% of the MMOs on the market fit at least 12 of your 15 niche groups, just by that tiny bit of info alone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A game is also lucky to make 760k active subs..... which is 11.5/15.

 

Should I also mention that WoW's not currently at 11.5 and that figure is almost 2yrs old? Yeah........................ that too. It's on Blizz's press site.

  laokoko

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/14/09
Posts: 1903

6/29/10 6:24:02 PM#4
Originally posted by TheHatter

A game is also lucky to make 760k active subs..... which is 11.5/15. 

Should I also mention that WoW's not currently at 11.5 and that figure is almost 2yrs old? Yeah........................ that too. It's on Blizz's press site.

 I think he mean 11.5/(2^15).

you start at 11.5m and keep dividing by 2 15 times

  MMOExposed

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/17/10
Posts: 5983

 
OP  6/29/10 6:40:57 PM#5
Originally posted by laokoko
Originally posted by TheHatter

A game is also lucky to make 760k active subs..... which is 11.5/15. 

Should I also mention that WoW's not currently at 11.5 and that figure is almost 2yrs old? Yeah........................ that too. It's on Blizz's press site.

 I think he mean 11.5/(2^15).

you start at 11.5m and keep dividing by 2 15 times

yes this is what I meant.

 

Try it. It works

  GTwander

Novice Member

Joined: 3/14/09
Posts: 6125

LARPer Hunter

6/29/10 6:42:28 PM#6
Originally posted by GTwander

It doesn't work.

Writer / Musician / Game Designer

Now Playing: Skyrim, Wurm Online, Tropico 4
Waiting On: GW2, TSW, Archeage, The Rapture

  MMO.Maverick

Inquisitor

Joined: 3/05/10
Posts: 7792

The middle road is the place to be!

6/29/10 6:46:52 PM#7

Heh. I'm sorry, I'm usually using tea leaves and weather patterns to predict the max sub numbers.

That is, whenever my crystal ball is still out of juice; I usually need to make a trip to Hogwarts to recharge it.

The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  twrule

Novice Member

Joined: 7/15/09
Posts: 1260

6/29/10 6:51:26 PM#8

That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

  User Deleted
6/29/10 6:55:04 PM#9
Originally posted by laokoko
Originally posted by TheHatter

A game is also lucky to make 760k active subs..... which is 11.5/15. 

Should I also mention that WoW's not currently at 11.5 and that figure is almost 2yrs old? Yeah........................ that too. It's on Blizz's press site.

 I think he mean 11.5/(2^15).

you start at 11.5m and keep dividing by 2 15 times

w/e not the point.

Cyphers and twrule hit the nail on the head.

  Waldoe

Novice Member

Joined: 2/27/10
Posts: 624

6/29/10 6:55:37 PM#10

LOL ok so what happens to all the people not playing WoW (which has no where near 11.5 million players anymore) and people simply not playing MMOs until the new one they want is out?

 

Yeah great formula.

  MMOExposed

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/17/10
Posts: 5983

 
OP  6/29/10 6:56:33 PM#11
Originally posted by twrule

That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

oh really?

/roll eyes  jk lol

But still it works 99% of the time.

Try it, even if it is coincidental. It works

  MMOExposed

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/17/10
Posts: 5983

 
OP  6/29/10 6:59:41 PM#12
Originally posted by Waldoe

LOL ok so what happens to all the people not playing WoW (which has no where near 11.5 million players anymore) and people simply not playing MMOs until the new one they want is out?

 

Yeah great formula.

Hi

Hi

Hi

Blizzard last Sub Number statement was when they were dicussion the issues they having in China.

They stated WoW only grew by a small percentage compared to TBC because of the Prevention of WoTLK X-pac in China.

 

(Guess you didnt know, but China players still can play TBC from their server)

 

Blizzard stated that WoW Subs are 11.5 Million in Late 2009

 

So Cya, whine elsewhere

  Hedeon

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/27/05
Posts: 909

6/29/10 7:03:45 PM#13

hmm how do your formula fit with facebook games

  Waldoe

Novice Member

Joined: 2/27/10
Posts: 624

6/29/10 7:03:54 PM#14
Originally posted by MMOExposed
Originally posted by Waldoe

LOL ok so what happens to all the people not playing WoW (which has no where near 11.5 million players anymore) and people simply not playing MMOs until the new one they want is out?

 

Yeah great formula.

Hi

Hi

Hi

Blizzard last Sub Number statement was when they were dicussion the issues they having in China.

They stated WoW only grew by a small percentage compared to TBC because of the Prevention of WoTLK X-pac in China.

 

(Guess you didnt know, but China players still can play TBC from their server)

 

Blizzard stated that WoW Subs are 11.5 Million in Late 2009

 

So Cya, whine elsewhere

LOL you didnt mention anything about the other part of my comment because you know your a troll WoW fanboy.

Late 2009 isnt 2010. That 11.5 mil figure is way old dude. You link something that says otherwise.

  laokoko

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/14/09
Posts: 1903

6/29/10 7:05:29 PM#15

why do we have to do the work.  You start out the thread.

Take some of the most popular MMO on the market now and show us if your formula is accurate.

And tell us your perdiction on upcoming MMO's because I surely won't take my time to prove how inaccurate your sily formula is.

  ladyattis

Novice Member

Joined: 10/22/04
Posts: 1261

Wicked Witch of Single Player Games!

6/29/10 7:05:34 PM#16

Also, where's the proof for this algorithm? Any mathematical induction done? What about edge cases? Does this follow more from Topus Theory or it doesn't violate Godel's Incompleteness Theorem?

  twrule

Novice Member

Joined: 7/15/09
Posts: 1260

6/29/10 7:09:34 PM#17
Originally posted by MMOExposed
Originally posted by twrule

That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

oh really?

/roll eyes  jk lol

But still it works 99% of the time.

Try it, even if it is coincidental. It works

Something tells me you haven't done the amount of necessary statistical testing to back up that claim.

There's no way that this formula could act as a decent prediction model at all.  There are too many variables unaccounted for, and the assumptions it's based on are convoluted at best.  How would you even know if the results were accurate, nevermind that one of your factors (the niche one) is based on opinion?

  MMOExposed

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/17/10
Posts: 5983

 
OP  6/29/10 7:13:20 PM#18
Originally posted by twrule
Originally posted by MMOExposed
Originally posted by twrule

That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

oh really?

/roll eyes  jk lol

But still it works 99% of the time.

Try it, even if it is coincidental. It works

Something tells me you haven't done the amount of necessary statistical testing to back up that claim.

There's no way that this formula could act as a decent prediction model at all.  There are too many variables unaccounted for, and the assumptions it's based on are convoluted at best.  How would you even know if the results were accurate, nevermind that one of your factors (the niche one) is based on opinion?

Try it if you dont believe it.

Use a current game like DF or MO

something like that.

  laokoko

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/14/09
Posts: 1903

6/29/10 7:16:47 PM#19

Actually the formula works quite well.  It's the part where he says "max" possible subscription number.

the important words is "max".  The reality is the actual subscriber number usually come out much lower than the formula outcome. 

For example the formula might come out with a max subscription number of 700k, when all the games that fit into that subgeneral dont' break 300k.  The main point is the upper bound is so high so offcourse it's not breakable.

Social games dont' fit the catergory though, games like club penguins or second life break that formula.

  twrule

Novice Member

Joined: 7/15/09
Posts: 1260

6/29/10 7:18:21 PM#20
Originally posted by MMOExposed
Originally posted by twrule
Originally posted by MMOExposed
Originally posted by twrule

That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

oh really?

/roll eyes  jk lol

But still it works 99% of the time.

Try it, even if it is coincidental. It works

Something tells me you haven't done the amount of necessary statistical testing to back up that claim.

There's no way that this formula could act as a decent prediction model at all.  There are too many variables unaccounted for, and the assumptions it's based on are convoluted at best.  How would you even know if the results were accurate, nevermind that one of your factors (the niche one) is based on opinion?

Try it if you dont believe it.

Use a current game like DF or MO

something like that.

You're missing the point.  I don't need to try it because it makes no sense.

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