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News & Features Discussion  » General: Great Expectations - SW:TOR

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239 posts found
  maskedweasel

Tipster

Joined: 9/24/07
Posts: 7266

"Kids, try imagining how far the universe extends! Keep thinking about it until you go insane."

3/24/10 11:11:28 AM#21

I don't agree with the post at all...  look, it doesn't matter how much you spend on an MMO theres a point in any software, mechanical, game, etc production where you need a certain amount of capital to break even.   So whats the real problem here? The costs, correct?  Because this game will be the most costly MMO of them all it needs the highest revenue stream.

 

This isn't complicated, but heres the thing, if BioWare could have made this game with less money, I'm sure they would have.  BioWare is in a very fortunate position to have a company backing them that isn't shy to dig into their pockets to keep development alive.  Could we have seen a game with one half the content release with half the costs?  Yeah we could have, but thats not the game they wanted to produce, and maybe thats not the game we want to play.  

 

Will it sell millions of copies?  Chances are extremely good that it will.  Will it keep millions of subscribers?  I'm not sure, but if it doesn't I'm sure it will be a tremendous hit to EA financially and nothing more.  Plenty of games -- from FFXI  to WAR to AOC have had their issues and came well under their necessary subscriber mark at one point or another. The MMO world didn't end. If that happens again here, there will be no catastrophic event other than we lose a very expensive game from a very well respected developer.

"Loan me a Dragon I wanna see space"


  xaldraxius

Novice Member

Joined: 10/07/05
Posts: 1287

3/24/10 11:19:06 AM#22

It's all about advertising. EA needs to break the usual boundaries of MMO advertising and do TV spots and celeb endorsements right out of the gate.

EA needs to make sure that there isn't a single person in the world that hasn't heard of their game months before the game hits the shelves. They need people to start lining up in front of game stores the day before release just so that they can have the chance to be one of the first to enter this 'brave new world'.

They need to hype, hype, hype then hype some more and then... they have to deliver on that hype.

2 million + box sales shouldn't be a problem. It's retaining those numbers that will be the hardest part.

  brostyn

Novice Member

Joined: 1/29/04
Posts: 3120

Cynical? Me? Never.

3/24/10 11:19:30 AM#23

Here's my hope. Well, firstly, I hope the game is worth 150 million. Somehow I doubt it. I'm thinking its just another generic run of the mill clone. So, I hope its a great game.

 

More realisticially, I hope that once they come out with, yet another, failed WoW clone large publishers will take notice. They will leave this genre. Then, we can have innovation again like we were getting before these huge publishers jumped into the foray. Hopefully, we can get back on track with games like AC, UO, and classic EQ.

The worse thing that could happen is this is a well done WoW clone that does somehow get 2 million subscribers(almost impossible, because why would one leave WoW to play the exact same game?). We would never see the end of WoW clones.

  Lobotomist

Elite Member

Joined: 5/20/07
Posts: 4841

I got so much trouble on my mind Refuse to lose.

3/24/10 11:21:22 AM#24

Wow Scott ! Great article again !

Probably best MMO colmunist around ! Kudos


As for SWTOR...


One  million active subscribers for one year ? Sorry , not gonna happen.

 

1. The WOW craze is over. Anyway most of WOW subscribers were non-gamers that just followed the new hip trend.
2. You have F2P MMOs now. Which are great alternative.
3. Big part of WOW appeal was that it appealed to girls and non gamers. It was CUTE.  SWTOR is definetly not cute. And if it is it will turn off the serious gamers and SW fans.
4. SWTOR just doesnt look that great. I am loyal Bioware fan, but ...sorry. Based of what i seen so far , i can not see a great MMO in making.


The best what SWTOR may expect is 1 million subscribers at first month + 2-3 months after that. Later they may reach 500.000 and even that would be better than any other western MMO aside from WOW.


( BTW any information how many people play WOW today , not in asia ? )

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

  SnarlingWolf

Novice Member

Joined: 6/23/09
Posts: 2728

3/24/10 11:24:19 AM#25
Originally posted by Lobotomist

Wow Scott ! Great article again !

Probably best MMO colmunist around ! Kudos


As for SWTOR...


One  million active subscribers for one year ? Sorry , not gonna happen.

 

1. The WOW craze is over. Anyway most of WOW subscribers were non-gamers that just followed the new hip trend.
2. You have F2P MMOs now. Which are great alternative.
3. Big part of WOW appeal was that it appealed to girls and non gamers. It was CUTE.  SWTOR is definetly not cute. And if it is it will turn off the serious gamers and SW fans.
4. SWTOR just doesnt look that great. I am loyal Bioware fan, but ...sorry. Based of what i seen so far , i can not see a great MMO in making.


The best what SWTOR may expect is 1 million subscribers at first month + 2-3 months after that. Later they may reach 500.000 and even that would be better than any other western MMO aside from WOW.


( BTW any information how many people play WOW today , not in asia ? )

 


 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 I agree because I already said it and because of awesome formatting.

  brostyn

Novice Member

Joined: 1/29/04
Posts: 3120

Cynical? Me? Never.

3/24/10 11:26:10 AM#26
Originally posted by maskedweasel Plenty of games -- from FFXI  to WAR to AOC have had their issues and came well under their necessary subscriber mark at one point or another. The MMO world didn't end. If that happens again here, there will be no catastrophic event other than we lose a very expensive game from a very well respected developer.

You're wrong about there being no consequences. Just look at the recent discussion about Farmville. Look at Raph Koster's feelings. He represents a big time publisher, and all their feelings. They are saying it takes too much to make MMORPGs, and they aren't getting the ROI that farmville and other social browser based games get. If SWTOR does fail we will see MMORPG development vanish. Heck, its already slowed considerably from 2 or 3 years ago.

Is that a bad thing? I don't think so. I think that will open the way for indie's to compete(sadly, it also opens us up to all the cheap asian games we have now). Everyone knows large publisher's have zero creativity. It always takes a new company to shake things up.

  Czargio

Novice Member

Joined: 8/10/09
Posts: 183

3/24/10 11:27:48 AM#27

My only question is, do we as a MMO community want EA to succeed, break even, or fail? There are pros and cons to each of those. 

Succeed - Naturally that means that we have a really good game on our hands that is retaining players and generating massive revenue. The con of this would be obvious, EAs mentality of MOAR will be upheld, and we may see companies who cannot afford to keep up (most of them) shrug their shoulders and move on to something else.

Break Even - This could mean that they didn't get the numbers they wanted, but in the long run, no one is losing their job over it, and quite a few players are enjoying the game. The drawback is that EAs mentality wouldn't be broken, and they would probably aim for an even higher budget game next time.

Fail - So the game tanks and cannot retain players after the first month. You can audibly hear the assholes of EAs managers puckering shut. The pro is that the biggest publisher gets a harsh lesson in overinvestment and has to shrink in size considerably to stay alive. The cons include massive layoffs, usually on the side of those who didn't make the decisions (programmers and designers) and a credible game designer, Bioware, takes a massive hit as well.

 

As a vengeful gamer frothing at the mouth, I really want to see EA fall flat on its face and return the market to smaller projects by game designers with new, great ideas. As a pragmatist, if EA fails, that isn't good for anyone (except of course my perverted sense of justice). The shrinking of our market, coupled with more and more programmers and developers going unemployed, might be too devastating to fully recover from.

  ashfallen

Novice Member

Joined: 9/28/06
Posts: 188

3/24/10 11:29:19 AM#28

I was expecting this to start.  The new game to hate will be SW: TOR.

 

I did however expect it to come from a random angry poster.  Not one of the MMORPG staff.

Some how I see this isn't 100% honest.  After reading the article and trying to see where he maybe coming from.  I am at a loss.  Normally I find him intellegent and on the level.  This article is full of too many "what ifs".  I guess best thing for me is to file this in the "bad day" posts for Mr Jennings and move on.

  brostyn

Novice Member

Joined: 1/29/04
Posts: 3120

Cynical? Me? Never.

3/24/10 11:30:41 AM#29
Originally posted by Lobotomist

( BTW any information how many people play WOW today , not in asia ? )

 



http://www.massively.com/2008/01/22/world-of-warcraft-hits-10-million-players/

Old article, but back in 2008 it was estimated 2.5 million. EA has to have asia in mind. No way to get 2 million from US, imo. Are there even 4.5 million MMO players in America? I'm guessing, right now, no.

  AOCtester

Novice Member

Joined: 4/22/08
Posts: 445

3/24/10 11:31:47 AM#30

I dont find anything wrong with EA splashing the cash on SWTOR.  Its a risk that they have desided to make.  And Im pretty sure that Bioware has a long term plan of continuing supporting the game with new content and features.  If not then the game will go the way of WAR.


2 million boxes sold of SWTOR is not alot.  I think EA ecspects alot more to be fair.  Its Star Wars after all.  Even tho Tabula Rasa failed with their futuristic game that was pretty much a typical bugfest of an MMO - Im pretty sure alot more fools will fall for the PR hype around this title.

Sadly...

  Liltawen

Novice Member

Joined: 10/25/08
Posts: 245

3/24/10 11:31:48 AM#31

Are there 2 million non-WOW MMO players even available?

They'll need Korea, and especially China for that.

Does anybody know how the Star Wars movies did in China? Does it remind them of Ronald Reagan's missle program? How is WOW doing there (is it even there-the Chinese gov't doesn't make things very easy for them)?

  Czargio

Novice Member

Joined: 8/10/09
Posts: 183

3/24/10 11:32:52 AM#32
Originally posted by ashfallen

I was expecting this to start.  The new game to hate will be SW: TOR.

 

I did however expect it to come from a random angry poster.  Not one of the MMORPG staff.

Some how I see this isn't 100% honest.  After reading the article and trying to see where he maybe coming from.  I am at a loss.  Normally I find him intellegent and on the level.  This article is full of too many "what ifs".  I guess best thing for me is to file this in the "bad day" posts for Mr Jennings and move on.

All his assumptions and 'what ifs' are used at EAs benefit. He uses conservative figures to give them the biggest benefit of the doubt, to reduce the impact of his estimation.

And he isn't hating on TOR, he is hating on EA and their need to inject capital into the games like a drug addict injecting heroine with a fire hose.

  Isaak

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 48

3/24/10 11:34:38 AM#33
Originally posted by cyphers

I don't know. look at the whole feverish internet dot com bubble that was such a hype a number of years back. You see the same in a smaller way now with MMO's, now that Blizzard has shown that 11mil subs is actually something that could be reached.

Now everyone else and their dog wants to make a super successful MMO*cough* = make insame amounts of money, whether that's realistic or not. A good burst of that dream bubble is maybe what the MMO market needs, to adjust expectations more to reality again instead of the realm of Investors' Fairytale Neverland where many publishing and investment companies are floating around in now.

I have MANY EA titles and I have to agree with most people's sentiments that this is going to tank. EA just isn't willing to POLISH a game before putting it on the shelf. I loved battlefield2. It was a great game...but the UI was clunky, the game was buggy. Same experience with pretty much every game ever played by them.

STO online had my hopes up...but within 30 seconds of Beta, I knew that the game was fundamentily flawed (much like my spelling abilities). Clunky physics and movement. Cheesy ground battles. Counterintuitive controls/navigation. The graphics are ok, but the movement made me feel like I was in KOTOR 1, except not even quite as clean as that.  I hear they've added in the inside of ships now. This was one of the big things i was hoping for...but now its too late. The FPS portion of the game is terrible - take the FPS quality of say, planetside, and then beat the crap out of it, bring it back as a button mashing fest (instead of twitch skill) and you get an idea of the crappiness of said FPS portion. The ship combat was fun...it would be an AWESOME game, if it was just a space combat game played for free on armorgames.com.  Its simply NOT MMO subscription worthy.


SW:TOR has a lot of potential. From the screenshots its hard to tell if they will polish this enough. First impressions are a BIG DEAL. Will they break the mold? Will they put real passion ($$ does not equal passion or talent) and fun into this?

IF EA failed, the IP wasn't enough to sustain it and LUCAS ARTS and was forced to quit pimping out their IP, would it be enough for developers to make changes? Maybe. As long as Activision Blizzard is pulling down 10million subs per month, some other major game manufacturer with $$ in their eyes chanting *money* like a zombie for brains, is going to try.

A REAL knock on the MMO industry will be if Blizz's new 'secret' MMO tanks. Imagine it. The juggernaut MMO creates a flop...proving WOW was some kind of accidental fluke.  Maybe WoW was just the right game at the right time with just enough of the good stuff.  Now that Activision is in the mix, the WoW expansions are less polished.  Now that some of the major developers for WoW have left to go work on their new project, WoW is more buggy than ever (which isnt that bad...it was a well polished game to start). But Blizz isn't pure anymore. The new MMO will have Activision's ideas in it too.


Here's hoping that Blizz is making a good FPS/scifi mmo that breaks the mold and shows us true inspiration and innovation.

Currently not playing any MMOrpg --
Lvl 80 paladin WoW

  ashfallen

Novice Member

Joined: 9/28/06
Posts: 188

3/24/10 11:35:04 AM#34
Originally posted by Czargio
Originally posted by ashfallen

I was expecting this to start.  The new game to hate will be SW: TOR.

 

I did however expect it to come from a random angry poster.  Not one of the MMORPG staff.

Some how I see this isn't 100% honest.  After reading the article and trying to see where he maybe coming from.  I am at a loss.  Normally I find him intellegent and on the level.  This article is full of too many "what ifs".  I guess best thing for me is to file this in the "bad day" posts for Mr Jennings and move on.

All his assumptions and 'what ifs' are used at EAs benefit. He uses conservative figures to give them the biggest benefit of the doubt, to reduce the impact of his estimation.

And he isn't hating on TOR, he is hating on EA and their need to inject capital into the games like a drug addict injecting heroine with a fire hose.

 Your right, I have been staring at code all day.  Some how the simplest things slip you buy when you spend 10 hours running code for errors.

I stand corrected.  After a good lunch and break from my work station, I am seeing things a bit more clearly.

 

On one point though, I believe if they can inject capital into it and make a better game.  why not?  If we truely want the best of the best to be designing our games.  Well its costs money. With in reason of course.

  TookyG

Warhammer Online Correspondent

Joined: 4/19/04
Posts: 1193

"...you mean three philippino women."

3/24/10 11:35:24 AM#35
Originally posted by Vestas

[. . . ] even the much hated Star Trek Online has over 200k subs making it profitable for what Cryptic spent on it.

Jack Emmert claims, well over 100k subs.  If they had over 200k he would have said over 200k.  Profitable for them supposedly, yes, but not successful.

To get on topic though, I think EA's gamble is a terrible one.  Their MMO track record is awful and yet they're throwing money at this project, believing, as another poster said, that financing was the issue.  They're setting themselves up for failure.  You don't shoot to replicate the market anomoly.  Certainly not by throwing money around like a short order cook at a truck stop throws eggs around (RIP Chris Farley).  Does anyone believe you can throw a billion dollars at some hardware and software engineers, create a search engine, and compete with Google?

That's not to say that I don't believe SWTOR can be successful or that it can garner and sustain 1 million plus subs, I believe it can.  Money alone, however, will not bring them over a million subs.  A very well made MMORPG not just a very well made game and a lot of luck will.

Until you cancel your subscription, you are only helping to continue the cycle of mediocrity.

  maskedweasel

Tipster

Joined: 9/24/07
Posts: 7266

"Kids, try imagining how far the universe extends! Keep thinking about it until you go insane."

3/24/10 11:38:03 AM#36
Originally posted by brostyn
Originally posted by maskedweasel Plenty of games -- from FFXI  to WAR to AOC have had their issues and came well under their necessary subscriber mark at one point or another. The MMO world didn't end. If that happens again here, there will be no catastrophic event other than we lose a very expensive game from a very well respected developer.

You're wrong about there being no consequences. Just look at the recent discussion about Farmville. Look at Raph Koster's feelings. He represents a big time publisher, and all their feelings. They are saying it takes too much to make MMORPGs, and they aren't getting the ROI that farmville and other social browser based games get. If SWTOR does fail we will see MMORPG development vanish. Heck, its already slowed considerably from 2 or 3 years ago.

Is that a bad thing? I don't think so. I think that will open the way for indie's to compete(sadly, it also opens us up to all the cheap asian games we have now). Everyone knows large publisher's have zero creativity. It always takes a new company to shake things up.

He does not represent all publishers, but thats neither here nor there.  If TOR failed, GW2, and all those other big SOE games would still release,  TSW would still be on its mark to release, and I'm sure Blizzards next MMO would release as well.  The MMO market will not hinge on a single games success. MMOs were releasing before WoW and they will release after.

 

Now Social browser games are becoming popular. Social networking is "in" right now, but thats the ebb and flow of the internet age.  Social browser games are played by people like my sister-in-law and her mother.  Because social networking is so popular, its bound to attract many others that an MMO wouldn't.  MMOs released before those kind of games, and they'll be alive a long time after them. Once MMOs hit consoles, I have a feeling the genre will flux again.

"Loan me a Dragon I wanna see space"


  Fed1

Novice Member

Joined: 1/17/08
Posts: 174

3/24/10 11:38:08 AM#37

I might have missed it in quick reading - Where does the Box sales figure into the costs - I would assume we need to add another 50 million.

  Lobotomist

Elite Member

Joined: 5/20/07
Posts: 4841

I got so much trouble on my mind Refuse to lose.

3/24/10 11:38:27 AM#38
Originally posted by brostyn
Originally posted by Lobotomist

( BTW any information how many people play WOW today , not in asia ? )

 



http://www.massively.com/2008/01/22/world-of-warcraft-hits-10-million-players/

Old article, but back in 2008 it was estimated 2.5 million. EA has to have asia in mind. No way to get 2 million from US, imo. Are there even 4.5 million MMO players in America? I'm guessing, right now, no.

 

Exactly what i was thinking.


LOTRO was also riding on hugely popular IP. And it is/was pretty good MMO ( at least as good as WOW)

Still it barely holds 300.000 subscribers in west.

 

And as for WOW numbers.

You must take into account that most of those were non gamers. People that them selves said will never go back to MMOs again. They are not really interested in the genre.

For them it was just popular thing to do. Like Facebook is today. Or Farmville for that mater.

 

SWTOR has to rely on core gamers.

  GamerAeon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/06
Posts: 567

3/24/10 11:39:32 AM#39
Originally posted by TookyG
Originally posted by Vestas

[. . . ] even the much hated Star Trek Online has over 200k subs making it profitable for what Cryptic spent on it.

Jack Emmert claims, well over 100k subs.  If they had over 200k he would have said over 200k.  Profitable for them supposedly, yes, but not successful.

To get on topic though, I think EA's gamble is a terrible one.  Their MMO track record is awful and yet they're throwing money at this project, believing, as another poster said, that financing was the issue.  They're setting themselves up for failure.  You don't shoot to replicate the market anomoly.  Certainly not by throwing money around like a short order cook at a truck stop throws eggs around (RIP Chris Farley).  Does anyone believe you can throw a billion dollars at some hardware and software engineers, create a search engine, and compete with Google?

That's not to say that I don't believe SWTOR can be successful or that it can garner and sustain 1 million plus subs, I believe it can.  Money alone, however, will not bring them over a million subs.  A very well made MMORPG not just a very well made game and a lot of luck will.

only time will tell if SW:ToR will hit the bullseye or just get flushed down the tubes like a rotten turd.

As for the search engine thing...well Don't tell Microsoft that lol

  darkpath19

Novice Member

Joined: 10/11/05
Posts: 53

3/24/10 11:43:25 AM#40

"Does anyone believe you can throw a billion dollars at some hardware and software engineers, create a search engine, and compete with Google?" 

Actually yes....

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