Originally posted by a_name 

This is the first post that raises a valid point, kudos!

Here's why I think that's not true. 

If you purchase 3 and apply 3 none are expired. Even when you deplete the first you still have 2 active cards. You don't have to apply the cards to an account for them to be active, the fact that they were purchased makes them pre-paid and their validation is what guarantees they are active, it's only when you associate them with an account that they become something that could be spent.

Let's say someone buys 10 cards. They hold onto 9 but they put 1 into their account. Do they not still have 9 active cards that aren't expired, yes, just because blizzard can't associate them with an account doesn't count that they weren't sold and I believe they are counting them because they don't know if the person is going to use them so they count it as a sub anyway - it's sold, how else do you account for the money? Until the card is applied to an account it has to count as something and for their marketing, its another subscriber.

World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules.

As you can see by the definitions, you cannot count time cards unless people have activated them to in order to play/access the game.  Thus unused time cards are not counted. 

Once a timecard is sold it cannot be tracked by blizzard, but it does not allow access to play the game until it is entered in the billing system.

Therefor each timecard must be entered into the system and furthermore will be associated with a game account. 

Furthermore you can read the definition centers around the ACCOUNT being paid, not the amount of time it is active or how many installments it receives.   The focus isn't how an account is payed for, but that it is payed for.  There are no provisions for method of payment counting multiple times.

Originally posted by zymurgeist

Originally posted by a_name

Originally posted by zymurgeist

No they're not. Anything else ridiculous you'd like to throw out there to be ridiculed?

 

That's amazing, you checked all my resource links in 3 minutes and re-checked my math.

Ok, I'll bite, does my butt look fat in this?

 

Didn't need to. You did a fine job of research and obviously went to a lot of effort but your assertion is absurd for a variety of reasons that I'm sure many will be chomping at the bit to point out to you..

No dear it looks fine.

lol

Originally posted by Daffid011

Originally posted by a_name 

This is the first post that raises a valid point, kudos!

Here's why I think that's not true. 

If you purchase 3 and apply 3 none are expired. Even when you deplete the first you still have 2 active cards. You don't have to apply the cards to an account for them to be active, the fact that they were purchased makes them pre-paid and their validation is what guarantees they are active, it's only when you associate them with an account that they become something that could be spent.

Let's say someone buys 10 cards. They hold onto 9 but they put 1 into their account. Do they not still have 9 active cards that aren't expired, yes, just because blizzard can't associate them with an account doesn't count that they weren't sold and I believe they are counting them because they don't know if the person is going to use them so they count it as a sub anyway - it's sold, how else do you account for the money? Until the card is applied to an account it has to count as something and for their marketing, its another subscriber.

 

---

World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules.

---

As you can see by the definitions, you cannot count time cards unless people have activated them to in order to play/access the game.  Thus unused time cards are not counted. 

 

Once a timecard is sold it cannot be tracked by blizzard, but it does not allow access to play the game until it is entered in the billing system.

 

Therefor each timecard must be entered into the system and furthermore will be associated with a game account. 

 

Furthermore you can read the definition centers around the ACCOUNT being paid, not the amount of time it is active or how many installments it receives.   The focus isn't how an account is payed for, but that it is payed for.  There are no provisions for method of payment counting multiple times.

Nay. you combined two lines to read words across them. That would imply that every person that uses a game card has to be using an "Internet Game Room" but they don't, they could be on a personal home computer or a friends' or a work computer etc.

"an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft"  Yup, don't want them to have an active card to Aion trying to play WOW. The word play here goes with that warcraft claim - later they just call it "the game" since it's been defined.

Another one of these posts? Seriously, get a life. Blizzard numbers are accurate and the world is not out to get you.

I do not disagree that they had those sub numbers when they made the announcements.

Although I am not so sure that they still have that many subs, with how quiet they have been about sub numbers since the last announcements. Their last announcements were in the months after WoTLK was released so it was to be expected they were still growing at the time.

Who knows how many subscribers they currently have today? I'm sure they still blow away every other MMO, but who knows if its still nearly 12 million or whatever it was up to?

Originally posted by a_name 

Nay. you combined two lines to read words across them. That would imply that every person that uses a game card has to be using an "Internet Game Room" but they don't, they could be on a personal home computer or a friends' or a work computer etc.

"an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft"  Yup, don't want them to have an active card to Aion trying to play WOW. The word play here goes with that warcraft claim - later they just call it "the game" since it's been defined.

No, I don't combine them, I read them to cover both situations.  A) being time cards and B) being however they pay at internet rooms/cafes.

Let me ask you this.  When does a time card become active?  The moment you purchase it from a store? You can keep that card for years and it will retain the potential to activate your account the moment you enter the code.  There is no expiration from the date of purchase.

The card only becomes ACTIVE when you associate it with your account.

You have an interesting idea, but so far it is a complete stretch that looks to be debunked.

Originally posted by Daffid011

Originally posted by a_name 

Nay. you combined two lines to read words across them. That would imply that every person that uses a game card has to be using an "Internet Game Room" but they don't, they could be on a personal home computer or a friends' or a work computer etc.

"an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft"  Yup, don't want them to have an active card to Aion trying to play WOW. The word play here goes with that warcraft claim - later they just call it "the game" since it's been defined.

 

No, I don't combine them, I read them to cover both situations.  A) being time cards and B) being however they pay at internet rooms/cafes.

Let me ask you this.  When does a time card become active?  The moment you purchase it from a store? You can keep that card for years and it will retain the potential to activate your account the moment you enter the code.  There is no expiration from the date of purchase.

The card only becomes ACTIVE when you associate it with your account.

 

 

You have an interesting idea, but so far it is a complete stretch that looks to be debunked.

Exactly, the kicker is where I call it the empasse. Who can define what active means. It can't be active when you purchase it because it sits on a store shelf and is shipped, it's active when the key is assigned. Now it becomes an active prepaid card when it has been purchased. It filled out 2 parameters so it's definition changed from just an active card to "an active prepaid card" because the time is not exhausted (in the case of china points). That would make it an "inactive prepaid card" because if I remember right, that's what you put in your post that once used they are "expired" but the site makes no claim about what a not expired card is - they only use one word - active to describe the card. I suppose what you are expecting to read is that they count "an activated prepaid card" but it says active - just plain old active.

You say it's when you put it into the system, I say it's when it's given a key. 

50 ppl could come agree with me, 1000 ppl could come agree with you. It still won't make it true on your side so it's not debunked. It would just mean that more ppl look at it that way. This is where the data isn't existent.

I can pose back the question to you, is a prepaid game card with a false number on it active... or inactive?

My logic states it to be inactive because the key is invalid - you also call it inactive because it hasn't been typed into the system whether the key is good or not. Would it make sense for you to pass a card with a good key to a friend and say here... take this inactive card and "active" it... or would you say here, take this inactive card and "activate" it... after all, it's inactive until the numbers hit the website, right?

If you follow this statement then why is the card not active when it's the reverse, a real, existing key from the wow distributor that is active but has not been "activated" as you are thinking of it, because you say it's when the card is typed in - we can't go past that.

How does an individual... "have an active prepaid card".

That says to me, they purchase or are gifted (have) a card with a legitimate key activation number(an active).

The act of "activating" the number via the website can be done at your leisure but the "active" card still counts whether "activated" or not because the words only ask that the card is "active" i.e. valid, usable, real, not a fake.

...  "to play world of warcraft"... doesn't say "and are playing" "played this week" not even "has an existing account".

Just says the card is off a retailer shelf, is intended to be used to play wow, and has a valid (active) key.

See my gist? I can't think of another way to explain it anymore.

I didn't see when it expires and if I did have a picture of a chinese card it wouldn't matter because I can't translate it lol

My guestimations:

11mil = 5mil ACTUAL PLAYERS + 6mil GOLD SELLER ACCOUNTS

Seriously, my mind just boggles at how many GS accounts get banned daily and just replaced 2 min later.  And anyone who's going to try and say "Well, they just don't count them", please explain to me how they'd tell the difference until they actually logged in (thus becoming active)?

Originally posted by a_name 

How does an individual... "have an active prepaid card".

That says to me, they purchase or are gifted (have) a card with a legitimate key activation number(an active).

The act of "activating" the number via the website can be done at your leisure but the "active" card still counts whether "activated" or not because the words only ask that the card is "active" i.e. valid, usable, real, not a fake.

...  "to play world of warcraft"... doesn't say "and are playing" "played this week" not even "has an existing account".

Just says the card is off a retailer shelf, is intended to be used to play wow, and has a valid (active) key.

 

 

See my gist? I can't think of another way to explain it anymore.

I didn't see when it expires and if I did have a picture of a chinese card it wouldn't matter because I can't translate it lol

How could blizzard possibly know when retail cards are sold?  That is the flaw in your theory.  Once those cards go into the retail system, blizzard has no idea whos hands they are in.

You did miss the part where they only count PLAYERS who have PAID ACCESS the game.  If you do not enter the time card code, you cannot access the game.  You can't play and thus are not a player. 

Furthermore, every other evidence points to the numbers being true.  From the number of active game servers being appropriate to support a player base that size, rankings in the top ten best selling software list all the way to financial statements backing up the revenue of such a playerbase size.

The only thing you have offered is a creative way to look at a word or two when taken out of the context they are presented.  You assumption is that blizzard is being crafty, but when you read the entire statement you can see how specific blizzard is being about only counting players with paid access.

As I said, interesting discussion, but nothing of real merit in your theories. 

This entire sorry discussion really centers on the OP trying to define 'active' = 'valid' and uses that to prove that Blizzard is misleading about their numbers.  This is of course a circular argument since that definition only makes sense if Blizzard is using some weird semantic tricks to try and mislead the public and its shareholders.  So if Blizzard is trying to mislead us then they are using the weird definition and therefore are trying to mislead us.  There is no actual proof that Blizzard is using that definition or is trying to mislead us. 

Furthermore if blizzard is using the number of cards sold and not just the number of cards currently paying for an account, then they are grossly understating their numbers. 

Originally posted by ChaosInc

My guestimations:

11mil = 5mil ACTUAL PLAYERS + 6mil GOLD SELLER ACCOUNTS

Seriously, my mind just boggles at how many GS accounts get banned daily and just replaced 2 min later.  And anyone who's going to try and say "Well, they just don't count them", please explain to me how they'd tell the difference until they actually logged in (thus becoming active)?

Trial accounts are not included in WoW's numbers. Active players are not the same as actual player base and trial accounts are separate from paid accounts in billing and sign up. It boggles my mind as to how someone could not possibly understand such a basic concept. Goldseller accounts (paid) are vastly fewer than the GS trial mules that do the actual gold transfers. Before posting such ridiculous thoughts maybe you should take some time and do some research. WoW is the most successful MMO in all of MMO gaming history by leaps and bounds and to deny this is purely childish tantrum antics.

Originally posted by Kilmar

Hey, biggest part of Europe is using € as currency *mumble mumble* :)

Nah, that's those johnny foreigner types.   ;)

Originally posted by -aLpHa-

They can't lie about their financial status, their shareholders would run them over. You can read up their yearly income at the Vivendi website.

or we could use the OP's wild conjectures, freshly pulled from his ass.

Seriously, if ONE of the shareholders didn't get his due, he'd scream blue murder to the board of directors so loud it would be hot news in the financial press, and said financial press would be all over the story like a pack of starving wolves.  We'd never hear the end of it, and MMO forums would be ablaze 24/7.  So, no, the OP is talking bullshit.

Originally posted by a_name 

The retailers say we sold 15/50 cards you sent us at months end - now they have 15 "active prepaid cards" lurking that get tallied into the sub composite.

That would equal alot of people saying that, it would add up to 66 666 times/month for 1 Million subscribers... You do the math.

And, uhm, you do believe this would not already be leaked?

 Hahahaha, oh man!   

Originally posted by Daffid011 

How could blizzard possibly know when retail cards are sold?  That is the flaw in your theory.  Once those cards go into the retail system, blizzard has no idea whos hands they are in.

Because retailers makes a few millions calls each months saying they sold a card... Because retailers runs a specific system for the accounting of timecards, specifically made to report to Blizzard. And all employes in retail stores are in on this secret.

Blizzard hav nt released a statement about subscriber numbers in over ten months so  logically  the news is nt good at all . The losses of subs this year are proberbly in the millions . if it had remained the same or had gone up Bliz would have been boasting about it all over the internet

Originally posted by a_name

 

How does an individual... "have an active prepaid card".

That says to me, they purchase or are gifted (have) a card with a legitimate key activation number(an active).

The act of "activating" the number via the website can be done at your leisure but the "active" card still counts whether "activated" or not because the words only ask that the card is "active" i.e. valid, usable, real, not a fake.

...  "to play world of warcraft"... doesn't say "and are playing" "played this week" not even "has an existing account".

Just says the card is off a retailer shelf, is intended to be used to play wow, and has a valid (active) key.

 

To keep it simple. Blizzard has one store, they have one retailer, they create 1 timecard/day.

1:

Day 1: Blizzard creates 1 timecard.

Day 2: The retailer sells that card. - Card counts as one sub.
Day 2: Blizzard creates 1 timecard.

Day 3: The retailer sells 1 timecard. -Card counts as a sub.
Day 3: The customer types in the the keycode from day 2 into the account.
Day 3: Blizzard creates 1 timecard.

And so on...

2:

Day 1: Blizzard creates 1 timecard.

Day 2: The retailer sells that card.
Day 2: Blizzard creates 1 timecard.

Day 3: The retailer sells 1 timecard.
Day 3: The customer types in the the keycode from day 2 into the account. - Counts as a sub.
Day 3: Blizzard creates 1 timecard.

Day 4: The retailer sells 1 timecard.
Day 4: The customer types in the the keycode from day 3 into the account. -Counts as a sub.
Day 4: Blizzard creates 1 timecard.

And so on...
 

-----

The difference in that is the delay in one day... Still you'd only be having 2 subscriptions counted.

Originally posted by a_name 

Exactly, the kicker is where I call it the empasse. Who can define what active means. It can't be active when you purchase it because it sits on a store shelf and is shipped, it's active when the key is assigned. Now it becomes an active prepaid card when it has been purchased. It filled out 2 parameters so it's definition changed from just an active card to "an active prepaid card" because the time is not exhausted (in the case of china points). That would make it an "inactive prepaid card" because if I remember right, that's what you put in your post that once used they are "expired" but the site makes no claim about what a not expired card is - they only use one word - active to describe the card. I suppose what you are expecting to read is that they count "an activated prepaid card" but it says active - just plain old active.

 

You say it's when you put it into the system, I say it's when it's given a key. 

OK tell me how blizzard resolves this situation.

January:  I buy 2 prepaid time cards.

March: I use 1 time card.

November: I use the second time card.

So according to your logic, Blizzard counts me in January as 2 active subscriptions. 

How then do they deal with the march/november situations where I a actually playing the game?

Where your logic breaks down is when compared to what the blizzard definition is.  Buying a time card doesn't make you a subscriber UNTIL you use it.  You cannot access the game until you activate the card and every area of the definition details paid access to the game.  Your stance is that blizzard is not counting people who are actually logging in to the game.

Just like buying the wow box at the store doesn't make you a subscriber until you activate the code in the box.  That is why blizzard is clear they count people in their first free month.  Otherwise why wouldn't they just count game boxes sold as it is the same contention as you have blizzard counting time cards sold and not active accounts.

What Blizzard considers Active has a very simple answer.

WoW Account Management states if a subscription is active or not. Additionally, it states by what payment method it is active (if active) In addition to this, it states if there are any "pending" subscriptions.

If you buy 2 gamecards (or 200 for that sake) and type them all in. 1, and ONLY 1 will be considered active, and the 1 (or 199) remaining, will be considered pending.

Any active subscription does not reflect 1 human individual, as any individual might own more than 1 account. It simply means individual accounts.

Legal authorities (or even individuals interested in laws) LOVE to get companies for these kind of issues, so it is not a risk any self-aware company dares to take. Conspiracy theories like these are ridiculus, nor do they have anything to back up their claims. Your own calculations are most probably incorrect, and if they are not, you've probably been lucky and will never find out if they are. This thread has been ignoring the basics of all business related theory, and is thoroughly flawed.