So, I throw this out to all you awesome people here on the Threads:

What will be the real effect upon the MMO universe be when STO and SWTOR come online?

Will either game challenge the prowess and populations of WoW, Aion and other big subscriber games?

Will either game push Eve Online out of the stranglehold it's had for the Sci-Fi genre of MMOs?

If we assume for sake of argument that both games are of at least pretty fair quality, then what will be their limitation? Will they be beyond successful of even the hype they are getting now or will they only remain "niche" games?

Keep in mind the two game companies (Cryptic for Star Trek and Bioware for Star Wars) are both excellent game developers and their reputations are at stake with these huge titles.

Let me hear your opinions and thoughts about what (if any) impact these two potentially mega-games may have on the MMO universe.

In my view, STO will be niche, and TOR will be a hit (unless it completely sucks of course).  Really, Star Trek as an IP has always been niche, and Star Wars has always been mainstream (Note I am a big fan of both).  

I do tend to believe that the strength of an IP has a clear correlation to its subscriber base.  However, I have seen two outliers to that assessment, which is SWG and WoW.  There are good reasons for that though.  SWG was too complex for the average star wars fan (I'm not dogging on star wars fans, just saying SWG was complex as far as mmos go), and wow, although it had a niche audience, had great timing and great polish, attracting many beyond its niche.  

Other than that, most IP based mmos tend to get most of their IP fanbase, and that fanbase tends to stick with the game as long as it is a decent mmo.  Consider WAR, AOC, and LOTRO.  I'd argue that their playerbases strongly represent a similar percentage of fans of the IP.  WAR and AOC are pretty niche, while LOTRO is slightly more mainstream, yet not nearly as mainstream as Star Wars.

I'd find it interesting to see a more thorough analysis done on the correlation of a mmo to its IP.

Originally posted by zaxxon23

In my view, STO will be niche, and TOR will be a hit (unless it completely sucks of course).  Really, Star Trek as an IP has always been niche, and Star Wars has always been mainstream (Note I am a big fan of both).  

I do tend to believe that the strength of an IP has a clear correlation to its subscriber base.  However, I have seen two outliers to that assessment, which is SWG and WoW.  There are good reasons for that though.  SWG was too complex for the average star wars fan (I'm not dogging on star wars fans, just saying SWG was complex as far as mmos go), and wow, although it had a niche audience, had great timing and great polish, attracting many beyond its niche.  

 

Other than that, most IP based mmos tend to get most of their IP fanbase, and that fanbase tends to stick with the game as long as it is a decent mmo.  Consider WAR, AOC, and LOTRO.  I'd argue that their playerbases strongly represent a similar percentage of fans of the IP.  WAR and AOC are pretty niche, while LOTRO is slightly more mainstream, yet not nearly as mainstream as Star Wars.

 

I'd find it interesting to see a more thorough analysis done on the correlation of a mmo to its IP.

 

I think that  TOR might not attract a instant upon release core of players - due to SWG's history - many, myself included, may wait and see before playing it.  The history I am referring to is not just it's complexity but also the instant change of rules that happened.  Now I might be wrong  but, I for one, will wait and see on TOR.  I confess to playing both MMO's and SP games so I can get along just fine without it till I know it is cool.  I play RPG's and strategy games (EUIII), so I know there will always be something to play.

From what I saw at PAX, Star Trek Online is the first MMO to get both space and planetside combat RIGHT. SWG did a good job of planet battles but I thought the space battle system was terrible. EVE may do a good job with space battles but I don't believe that game offers a chance to beam down and shoot it out as a single character (my apologies if EVE has added this feature as I've only tried the demo). If the final release is as good as the demo, I think that the chance to command a starship and beam down as part of an AWAY team will appeal to most Sci Fi fans.

Otherwise, I echo the other sentiments in this thread. A really well designed Star Wars MMO is about the only thing that could eclipse WOW in popularity, as Star Wars is one of the biggest IPs out there.

 If  CBS & Bad Robot launch a new series and tie it into STO and allow the subscribers to help shape open ended story-lines they could draw in a huge number of folks world-wide.

Not that they need to bother worrying about WoW...but I imagine they could get WoW numbers.

I have high hopes for both SWtOR and STO. Star Wars I suspect will have more of a broad-based appeal, as it is more of a Sci-Fantasy genre, and will appeal to both Sci Fi fans and Fantasy fans. Star Trek I think will have more of a niche group of fans, but I think they will be more tenacious about it. As for television tie-ins for either property, I am skeptical about it. I mean, I hope they weren't counting on SG:U's use of StarGate: Worlds to help bring them back, b/c I don't think it's working. Either way, I think this may whittle EvE's numbers down. As for WoW, I'm not sure it will affect it that much, but I'm not even sure it's even a fair to compare that game to these.

Originally posted by elderotter

Originally posted by zaxxon23

In my view, STO will be niche, and TOR will be a hit (unless it completely sucks of course).  Really, Star Trek as an IP has always been niche, and Star Wars has always been mainstream (Note I am a big fan of both).  

I do tend to believe that the strength of an IP has a clear correlation to its subscriber base.  However, I have seen two outliers to that assessment, which is SWG and WoW.  There are good reasons for that though.  SWG was too complex for the average star wars fan (I'm not dogging on star wars fans, just saying SWG was complex as far as mmos go), and wow, although it had a niche audience, had great timing and great polish, attracting many beyond its niche.  

 

Other than that, most IP based mmos tend to get most of their IP fanbase, and that fanbase tends to stick with the game as long as it is a decent mmo.  Consider WAR, AOC, and LOTRO.  I'd argue that their playerbases strongly represent a similar percentage of fans of the IP.  WAR and AOC are pretty niche, while LOTRO is slightly more mainstream, yet not nearly as mainstream as Star Wars.

 

I'd find it interesting to see a more thorough analysis done on the correlation of a mmo to its IP.

 

 

I think that  TOR might not attract a instant upon release core of players - due to SWG's history - many, myself included, may wait and see before playing it.  The history I am referring to is not just it's complexity but also the instant change of rules that happened.  Now I might be wrong  but, I for one, will wait and see on TOR.  I confess to playing both MMO's and SP games so I can get along just fine without it till I know it is cool.  I play RPG's and strategy games (EUIII), so I know there will always be something to play.

You must realize that the "effect" from SWG will be VERY VERY minimal, if that. If this was being made by SOE that would be a valid statement to make, but a lot of gamers have played KOTOR, probably more than SWG. Even that, SWG was just changed to be more mainstream, and a lot of people that have been injected into the MMO system are used to that kind of game.

The effect both games may have on EVE is an interesting subject. I think STO would actually make a bigger dent on EVE than SWTOR despite this last game being more atractive to the general audience. EVE will hurt but its unlikely to drop more than 50k subs to either (we are going to see a big dip on Xfire numbers through beta and launches) and SWTOR may not even manage to scratch it much. The thing is that EVE is a niche game for more than just space combat and SWTOR is unlikely to have as deep and complex a system, specially as it will probably go for a twitch based style. STO on the other hand may prove atractive to EVEs base if things are done right. Players who may feel EVE to be expensive or arent really comfortable with RMT might jump ship if STO plays its cards right. Then again, people like this arent really EVEs bread and butter... The IP however will prove atractive to a number of EVEs players.

Large fleet battles on a single server is something i dont think either game will beat, and EVE fans mayve gotten too used to "slow" chess like gameplay to transition into something else. Unless STO becomes overwhelmingly atractive for some reason, EVE has nothing to fear, however it will have enough loyals to rough it out even then. Really a shame as, freely acknowledging EVE as a great game, its bussiness model is about one of the worse things in MMOs... But then, it is precisely the reason some people will stick to that game.

SWTOR is likely to set records for success at  launch but may also flop as spectacularly as SWG. STO will also have a big launch but its too much of a niche to hold big numbers for long. EVE will be hurt but is more likely to outlive both.

 Many people do say that SWTOR will have a bigger following but I for one am not sure. STO is doing it right! They are releasing their game after the $72.5 million box office opening of the new movie. Sure Star Wars is well known but isn't Star Trek also? Look at the sheer amount of literature, games, movies and T.V series that this IP has spawned. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

I for one am planning on playing both of them (as are many others I image) and can't wait to get a chance to pilot my own star ship, kill some aliens and have sex with others (James T. Kirk, you are my alien seducing idol!)   

Star Trek and Star Wars are the two largest Science Fiction IPs out there. Among the general population which has larger fan base is open to debate. They also share a significant number of fans and I have read that the popularity of one IP declines when the other releases a new show / movie.

Both are showing their age and have become somewhat tired.

The problem I see with Star Trek is that its style of story is harder to translate into a game. We will see if STO captures the feel of the Star Trek universe enough for it to be a success.

 As a long-time fan of 24th century Star Trek, I of course am excited for STO. However, I wish Cryptic wasn't behind it. I just don't like the direction they've taken. I don't like how Champions Online turned out and I fear STO will be a similiar letdown. Also, I do not want to be a captain. Not everyone wants to be a captain.

Star Wars: TOR, on the other hand, I do foresee ripping bored WoWers (and all bored MMOers in general) away for a while. 

Interesting thread.

I too am fascinated with the effect these two games will have on EVE.  I do agree with one of the previous poster's estimate of 50k possible jumps for each game.

I'm wondering about something I read about SWG's past (please someone correct if I'm way off I didn't play it). I read that when the NGE exodus took place many jumped aboard with EVE during the same time period.  Could EVE possibly be at more risk than we all seem to think? My gut says no but I'm curious.

 I think the draw away from SWG to EVE was more about the sandbox element than the sci-fi theme (though sci-fi, I'm sure, plays a huge part as well). 

STO and TOR aren't sandboxes and I don't see any EVE player being coerced (for too long) by anything but another space sandbox.

Originally posted by postpwn

 I think the draw away from SWG to EVE was more about the sandbox element than the sci-fi theme (though sci-fi, I'm sure, plays a huge part as well). 

STO and TOR aren't sandboxes and I don't see any EVE player being coerced (for too long) by anything but another space sandbox.

Thanks for clarifying.

I'll let that concern go then.

I think its too early to tell still. I think TOR will be a well made casual player game to compete for the WoW crowd but I dont know much about STO yet. Both IPs are great and I think Star Trek has a bigger following, atleast with the people I have met over the years. Star Wars has always been my favorite but a lot of guys see it as a SCI-FI love story. A lot of the women I work with were big on the Star Trek TV series which I think is why STO has a bigger audience.

I dont see EVE being impacted much if any. Both TOR and STO appear to be aiming at the massive casual crowd while EVE is chugging along happily as a 300k player niche game with zero competition.

Based on what I want to happen (which is what this thread will turn into).. I think TOR will be not that good because of some very hardcore bug problems regarding clipping that will cause desktop crashes... STO won't be as bad on the bug side but will lack the depth of TOR (what depth). Both will be good games after 6 months.

Hindering the WoW population? Have you ever thrown a pebble at the Hoover dam?

Aion sucks because I hear sucks and I don't think the population will be hindered (Aion will be more successful than STO I belive)

STO def a niche.

And finally, Stargate Worlds, if that is even being worked on anymore, will beat STO and TOR because the concept of a clan owning a planet (idk if thats possible or not) is unbelievable awesome.

None of FFA loot or nasty death penalties so the risk of all games drops to about a 3/10 making the game boring and a 12345 game with a neat environment and story to hook people in.

Originally posted by postpwn

 As a long-time fan of 24th century Star Trek, I of course am excited for STO. However, I wish Cryptic wasn't behind it. I just don't like the direction they've taken. I don't like how Champions Online turned out and I fear STO will be a similiar letdown. Also, I do not want to be a captain. Not everyone wants to be a captain.

 

Star Wars: TOR, on the other hand, I do foresee ripping bored WoWers (and all bored MMOers in general) away for a while. 

Sounds reasonable. I too prefer Star Trek to Star Wars also but im not so sure we are in the majority. The younger people i know, mainly through work and my grown children seem more connected to the Star Wars universe. Time will tell but another factor is how many gamers want a sci-fi universe as opposed to fantasy? Im looking forward to STO and if its a good game it may hold my attention but i do like the fantasy genre in single player games and mmo's.

Well cryptic has proven that they fail at their own creations so why would they succeed in doing something as difficult as recreating the star trek universe?

 On the other hand Star Wars will kill wow---end of story we all know it-------(i hope)----- 

Originally posted by grandpagamer

Originally posted by postpwn

 As a long-time fan of 24th century Star Trek, I of course am excited for STO. However, I wish Cryptic wasn't behind it. I just don't like the direction they've taken. I don't like how Champions Online turned out and I fear STO will be a similiar letdown. Also, I do not want to be a captain. Not everyone wants to be a captain.

 

Star Wars: TOR, on the other hand, I do foresee ripping bored WoWers (and all bored MMOers in general) away for a while. 

Sounds reasonable. I too prefer Star Trek to Star Wars also but im not so sure we are in the majority. The younger people i know, mainly through work and my grown children seem more connected to the Star Wars universe. Time will tell but another factor is how many gamers want a sci-fi universe as opposed to fantasy? Im looking forward to STO and if its a good game it may hold my attention but i do like the fantasy genre in single player games and mmo's.

Ha, I'm of the camp that doesn't recognize Star Wars as sci-fi in the first place. That's a fantasy series if you ask me (since it's not even about the technology or how science interacts with, well, fiction). But I know you mean swords and armor when you're saying fantasy (though I guess Star Wars does have both, doesn't it?).

That said, I really hope STO feels like Star Trek. I want to explore. I want to be forced to obey the prime directive and not disturb new civilizations' progress. I want it to be more than kill five tribbles/loot 10 bars of gold press lithium, get a ship, do battles. Who am I trying to kid? That's all it's gonna be. This is Cryptic we're talking about.

Something tells me the prime directive will devolve into "collect 10 furs because you cant trade technology" stuff... On the other hand get 5 red shirts killed could make for fun quests.