Originally posted by Reion1

No.  It will fail in less than four months.

And you failed with that comment.  All ur player base r belong 2 us. muhahahaha

Nope.

First it isn't different enough then WoW, so people will rush to it at first because it's something new. Once the new wears off they will go back to WoW like they did after every other WoW like new game. Because if a game is pretty much the same, go to the one where you already have all the gear and also has the most players.

Second there is a large section of this game's player base that was craving something new, anything new. Those same people jump ship as each new game comes out. So each new game release will hurt Aion's population more then WoWs.

This is an opinion from someone who completly hates WoW and hasn't played it in years, it is just the unfortunate truth of a game like Aion.

On short term maybe yes, on long term no. Wont take long for players to realise that its not that different as they expected. Itll stay healthy though.

At the end of the day it's a PvP game.  It'll have it's somewhat decent subscriber base but it'll never be mainstream for the same reason I just mentioned.  It's a PvP game and unfortunately (or fortunately) that playstyle does not draw an insane number of subs.  Warhammer was the best chance of a highly successful PvP centric game, based on the license alone but they screwed up the implementation of it. 

As far as Aion goes, I'd worry more about server numbers than subscription numbers as a whole.  In a game like this, it is absolutely mandatory that the servers have a decent population (irregardless of the third faction).  Nothing like rolling up on a pvp and invest a decent amount of time only to discover how the PvP is lacking due to numbers.

I give it 6-8 months, before server mergers.  The hype surrounding this game, and the forum comments about this game are giving me serious WAR flashbacks.  Aion has zero replay value for alts, and gives the average, -casual- WoW player no reason whatsoever to quit WoW.  It will draw probably quite a few of the self-proclaimed 'hardcore' MMO gamers that hop from FOTM game to FOTM game, but they'll hop to something else just as quickly.  So while it may cause a serious hit to games such as AoC and WAR, pretty much all of the other games have little to worry about. 

I give it 12 months to hit 2 million subs.

Originally posted by Regnevanz

I give it 12 months to hit 2 million subs.

You really think Aion will be that popular in the West?

Originally posted by Syno23

Originally posted by Regnevanz

I give it 12 months to hit 2 million subs.

 

You really think Aion will be that popular in the West?

Yeah pretty much.  Staying power will be the question, but that's the question for any MMO especially when having to deal with the next best thing that comes out.  But yeah, it will be popular.

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Syno23

Originally posted by Regnevanz

I give it 12 months to hit 2 million subs.

 

You really think Aion will be that popular in the West?

Yeah pretty much.  Staying power will be the question, but that's the question for any MMO especially when having to deal with the next best thing that comes out.  But yeah, it will be popular.

How do you figure?  Even though they made an attempt to westernize it, the pretty-pretty anime influence is still rampant throughout the game, and outside of a specific age demorgraphic, anime isn't really that big of a draw, and could be more of a negative aspect.  There are large numbers of MMO gamers that *hate* pvp, and essentially that is the focus of endgame in Aion.  And the game has zero replay value, since both sides essentially mirror the other.  So alts will be tedious and redundant.  It may take off for a few months, but once the casuals start migrating up to cap, the boredom will set in.  At best, I could see them having 200k-250k subscribers in 6-8 months.  And I'm being really generous with that figure. 

Originally posted by Eben

How do you figure?  Even though they made an attempt to westernize it, the pretty-pretty anime influence is still rampant throughout the game, and outside of a specific age demorgraphic, anime isn't really that big of a draw, and could be more of a negative aspect.  There are large numbers of MMO gamers that *hate* pvp, and essentially that is the focus of endgame in Aion.  And the game has zero replay value, since both sides essentially mirror the other.  So alts will be tedious and redundant.  It may take off for a few months, but once the casuals start migrating up to cap, the boredom will set in.  At best, I could see them having 200k-250k subscribers in 6-8 months.  And I'm being really generous with that figure. 

This post hits the nail on the head.   I would maybe slightly boost Aions numbers now that guild wars 2 was announced. 

Originally posted by thinktank001

Originally posted by Eben

How do you figure?  Even though they made an attempt to westernize it, the pretty-pretty anime influence is still rampant throughout the game, and outside of a specific age demorgraphic, anime isn't really that big of a draw, and could be more of a negative aspect.  There are large numbers of MMO gamers that *hate* pvp, and essentially that is the focus of endgame in Aion.  And the game has zero replay value, since both sides essentially mirror the other.  So alts will be tedious and redundant.  It may take off for a few months, but once the casuals start migrating up to cap, the boredom will set in.  At best, I could see them having 200k-250k subscribers in 6-8 months.  And I'm being really generous with that figure. 

 

 

This post hits the nail on the head.   I would maybe slightly boost Aions numbers now that guild wars 2 was announced. 

Check Point One, beggining subscribers on launch is over 300k for NA AIon - pretty pretty obvioulsy means nought look at WoW its really behind the times gameplay will overcome these obvious objections.

Will it compete with WoW long term? NO.

I pre-ordered. I'll be playing, most likely, at least two or three months. I enjoyed Rift enabled PvP, but my concerns about the small world size grew during Open Beta.

The game has a lot going for it, but some serious flaws.

I'm fully expecting Aion's Western subscription numbers to follow the same curve as WAR. Maybe half of the initial rush will be gone by the end of the second month and it will continue to contract there after.

Originally posted by Eben

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Syno23

Originally posted by Regnevanz

I give it 12 months to hit 2 million subs.

 

You really think Aion will be that popular in the West?

Yeah pretty much.  Staying power will be the question, but that's the question for any MMO especially when having to deal with the next best thing that comes out.  But yeah, it will be popular.

 

How do you figure?  Even though they made an attempt to westernize it, the pretty-pretty anime influence is still rampant throughout the game, and outside of a specific age demorgraphic, anime isn't really that big of a draw, and could be more of a negative aspect.  There are large numbers of MMO gamers that *hate* pvp, and essentially that is the focus of endgame in Aion.  And the game has zero replay value, since both sides essentially mirror the other.  So alts will be tedious and redundant.  It may take off for a few months, but once the casuals start migrating up to cap, the boredom will set in.  At best, I could see them having 200k-250k subscribers in 6-8 months.  And I'm being really generous with that figure. 

I think you highly underestimate NCSoft as a company then.  The idea that they are just going to let a game that is going to be far more popular than your initial figures, just stew in the status quo is extremely presumptuous on your part.  My guess is that they are watching the popularity intensely and will be moving to ante up it's staying power to compensate for Western player interests. 

Anyone that sits here making a prediction without thinking in big pictures is setting themselves up to be way off the mark.  Secondly the pretty-pretty anime influence was specifically targetted for the female audience which has had tremendous success in the Eastern world and already seeing some impacts here in that player base as well and they only just closed OB.

Hate it all you want simply because it doesn't fit your play style or you think it's a threat to your game.  The fact is we have a winner here and the only question is how well they adapt to keep the players they interest.

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Eben

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Syno23

Originally posted by Regnevanz

I give it 12 months to hit 2 million subs.

 

You really think Aion will be that popular in the West?

Yeah pretty much.  Staying power will be the question, but that's the question for any MMO especially when having to deal with the next best thing that comes out.  But yeah, it will be popular.

 

How do you figure?  Even though they made an attempt to westernize it, the pretty-pretty anime influence is still rampant throughout the game, and outside of a specific age demorgraphic, anime isn't really that big of a draw, and could be more of a negative aspect.  There are large numbers of MMO gamers that *hate* pvp, and essentially that is the focus of endgame in Aion.  And the game has zero replay value, since both sides essentially mirror the other.  So alts will be tedious and redundant.  It may take off for a few months, but once the casuals start migrating up to cap, the boredom will set in.  At best, I could see them having 200k-250k subscribers in 6-8 months.  And I'm being really generous with that figure. 

 

I think you highly underestimate NCSoft as a company then.  The idea that they are just going to let a game that is going to be far more popular than your initial figures, just stew in the status quo is extremely presumptuous on your part.  My guess is that they are watching the popularity intensely and will be moving to ante up it's staying power to compensate for Western player interests. 

Anyone that sits here making a prediction without thinking in big pictures is setting themselves up to be way off the mark.  Secondly the pretty-pretty anime influence was specifically targetted for the female audience which has had tremendous success in the Eastern world and already seeing some impacts here in that player base as well and they only just closed OB.

Hate it all you want simply because it doesn't fit your play style or you think it's a threat to your game.  The fact is we have a winner here and the only question is how well they adapt to keep the players they interest.

Aion is a winner because first of all NCSoft is doing great finacially, they can put millions and millions into Aion and so far with their sales in Korea, they really have put a lot into their new Aion MMO. The game looks great feels great, and best of all it is already popular in Asia region including Taiwan and Japan. This is a worldwide release people, the game is going to be a success.

Oh wait, look at Lineage, that game passed 3 million subs, Lineage II has already passed 2 million and Aion has already passed 1 million subscribers WORLD WIDE. This game won't fail like Age of Conan or Warhammer because it is already a success.

Whether North America, Europe, and Oceania has 1 player or 400 subscribers, or 400k subscribers, the game is going to be successful because you WoW noobs can't see it.

If Aion doesn't fit your play style, like WoW doesn't fit mine that's ok, but either way WoW still has 11 million and Aion still has more than 1 million. Cannot change that.

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Eben

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Syno23

Originally posted by Regnevanz

I give it 12 months to hit 2 million subs.

 

You really think Aion will be that popular in the West?

Yeah pretty much.  Staying power will be the question, but that's the question for any MMO especially when having to deal with the next best thing that comes out.  But yeah, it will be popular.

 

How do you figure?  Even though they made an attempt to westernize it, the pretty-pretty anime influence is still rampant throughout the game, and outside of a specific age demorgraphic, anime isn't really that big of a draw, and could be more of a negative aspect.  There are large numbers of MMO gamers that *hate* pvp, and essentially that is the focus of endgame in Aion.  And the game has zero replay value, since both sides essentially mirror the other.  So alts will be tedious and redundant.  It may take off for a few months, but once the casuals start migrating up to cap, the boredom will set in.  At best, I could see them having 200k-250k subscribers in 6-8 months.  And I'm being really generous with that figure. 

 

I think you highly underestimate NCSoft as a company then.  The idea that they are just going to let a game that is going to be far more popular than your initial figures, just stew in the status quo is extremely presumptuous on your part.  My guess is that they are watching the popularity intensely and will be moving to ante up it's staying power to compensate for Western player interests. 

Anyone that sits here making a prediction without thinking in big pictures is setting themselves up to be way off the mark.  Secondly the pretty-pretty anime influence was specifically targetted for the female audience which has had tremendous success in the Eastern world and already seeing some impacts here in that player base as well and they only just closed OB.

Hate it all you want simply because it doesn't fit your play style or you think it's a threat to your game.  The fact is we have a winner here and the only question is how well they adapt to keep the players they interest.

Agree Aion is a win maybe not for everyone but NC is no n00b in the MMO market they have a shit ton more exp than Bliz did when they put out WoW not that exp is every thing but ya they are less likely to belly flop than the avrage cookie imo

Aion is a good game, persoanly in game play I found I had a bit of attachment to my avatar even though it was just betas (closed and open) so I dont expect to see the 80 max level alts for every player that we see with some games but thats not a bad thing it means there is more to the game than the grind and a player developed some attachment to its avatar somthing sorly missing in recent MMOs. Now will it be the game for you not likely you seem to not like it lol. but there are plenty of other players that do, when its all said and done I don't rightfully care who plays what I know what I will be playing "Aion"

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Eben

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Syno23

Originally posted by Regnevanz

I give it 12 months to hit 2 million subs.

 

You really think Aion will be that popular in the West?

Yeah pretty much.  Staying power will be the question, but that's the question for any MMO especially when having to deal with the next best thing that comes out.  But yeah, it will be popular.

 

How do you figure?  Even though they made an attempt to westernize it, the pretty-pretty anime influence is still rampant throughout the game, and outside of a specific age demorgraphic, anime isn't really that big of a draw, and could be more of a negative aspect.  There are large numbers of MMO gamers that *hate* pvp, and essentially that is the focus of endgame in Aion.  And the game has zero replay value, since both sides essentially mirror the other.  So alts will be tedious and redundant.  It may take off for a few months, but once the casuals start migrating up to cap, the boredom will set in.  At best, I could see them having 200k-250k subscribers in 6-8 months.  And I'm being really generous with that figure. 

 

I think you highly underestimate NCSoft as a company then.  The idea that they are just going to let a game that is going to be far more popular than your initial figures, just stew in the status quo is extremely presumptuous on your part.  My guess is that they are watching the popularity intensely and will be moving to ante up it's staying power to compensate for Western player interests. 

Anyone that sits here making a prediction without thinking in big pictures is setting themselves up to be way off the mark.  Secondly the pretty-pretty anime influence was specifically targetted for the female audience which has had tremendous success in the Eastern world and already seeing some impacts here in that player base as well and they only just closed OB.

Hate it all you want simply because it doesn't fit your play style or you think it's a threat to your game.  The fact is we have a winner here and the only question is how well they adapt to keep the players they interest.

Not to mention, that Aion is using the CryEngine which is one of the best gaming engines on the market.  What's WoW using?  Oh yeah...that's right...didn't it use like the old Warcraft 3 engine or something like that? 

Point being is that Aion has no where to go but up on an already fantastic foundation.

Thing is that WoW has already set a level of standards in todays MMOs. No matter what happens, it still has the years on its back, which means more polished, more content etc. Lots of players are used to this abundance and they will get a feeling of emptiness on any new MMO, not just Aion.

So, the challenge is great for every new title out there. Some of the games make it harder to level up, in order to delay the players from reaching the higher levels and the end game content (see hyper-giganto-titanic elites in AoC). So, sooner or later, people will have to decide, play Aion with PvP and -let's say hypothetically- 5 end game instances or return to the known WoW with PvE (or PvP, depending on server) with the dozens of instances?

Several members have already stated some great facts about Aion, some of which is the Eastern type look (feminine looking guys) etc, which will have an impact on Western gamers. I, for one, belong to that group. It could be a personal preference, but I do enjoy the rough Cimmerian Conqueror from AoC than a teen-female looking "male" Gladiator. Even the dwarves in WoW have great character! Still, the armor in Aion may be more spectacular, but you get the point. No matter the armor, if the male character has female characteristics, it loses its meaning.

I only tried Aion for a very little while and my first experience was WoW-like. Keep in mind, I didn't get far in the game.
As long as a new MMO can't offer something radically new and captivating, besides some beautiful graphics and well designed chicks (I did read about "online dating" in the beta forums!), it will fall into the same category as its competitors. And that's where familiarity, lore depth and content will win (franchise). As far as I know, many people will join Aion until Cataclysm comes out. That alone speaks volumes.

Regarding the 3D engine, it's a powerful point, but not everything. I work in the VFX industry, but we all abide by the same rule: VFX comes last. The strength of the story comes first, followed by the power of the characters not far behind. In short, content and personalization (radical and captivating).
Aion will do nicely, but not good enough to catch WoW.

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Eben

Originally posted by mmaize

Originally posted by Syno23

Originally posted by Regnevanz

I give it 12 months to hit 2 million subs.

 

You really think Aion will be that popular in the West?

Yeah pretty much.  Staying power will be the question, but that's the question for any MMO especially when having to deal with the next best thing that comes out.  But yeah, it will be popular.

 

How do you figure?  Even though they made an attempt to westernize it, the pretty-pretty anime influence is still rampant throughout the game, and outside of a specific age demorgraphic, anime isn't really that big of a draw, and could be more of a negative aspect.  There are large numbers of MMO gamers that *hate* pvp, and essentially that is the focus of endgame in Aion.  And the game has zero replay value, since both sides essentially mirror the other.  So alts will be tedious and redundant.  It may take off for a few months, but once the casuals start migrating up to cap, the boredom will set in.  At best, I could see them having 200k-250k subscribers in 6-8 months.  And I'm being really generous with that figure. 

 

I think you highly underestimate NCSoft as a company then.  The idea that they are just going to let a game that is going to be far more popular than your initial figures, just stew in the status quo is extremely presumptuous on your part.  My guess is that they are watching the popularity intensely and will be moving to ante up it's staying power to compensate for Western player interests. 

Anyone that sits here making a prediction without thinking in big pictures is setting themselves up to be way off the mark.  Secondly the pretty-pretty anime influence was specifically targetted for the female audience which has had tremendous success in the Eastern world and already seeing some impacts here in that player base as well and they only just closed OB.

Hate it all you want simply because it doesn't fit your play style or you think it's a threat to your game.  The fact is we have a winner here and the only question is how well they adapt to keep the players they interest.

 

Not to mention, that Aion is using the CryEngine which is one of the best gaming engines on the market.  What's WoW using?  Oh yeah...that's right...didn't it use like the old Warcraft 3 engine or something like that? 

Point being is that Aion has no where to go but up on an already fantastic foundation.

Age of Conan's dream engine on DX10 looks great too, but for stability and massive PvP and performance and beauty, Aion is very optimized to do such that. I can now raid on my friend's crappy computer, 200 vs 200 in the abyss and have no lagg. On my main PC I can crank everything to MAX on a 30" monitor and experience no lagg within a 200 vs 200 PvPvE in the abyss.

It is incredible indeed, the CryEngine is an older engine, it isn't as new as the unreal 3 or CryEngine 2, but for MMOs and gaming in general, if you want optimal perfomance, beautiful, and stability.

In addition, my PC won't run Crysis too well, but that's the CryEngine 2 which in my opinion is still way beyond today's PCs and hardware.

btw, Aion only runs in DX9. And, DX11 is coming out in the beginning of 2010.

my crystal ball is in the shop.

To the OP: No.