with the PC market going to the shitter the price of a decent PC now days is very cheap and the fact that Aion can run on almost any average PC id think over 500k.

Originally posted by FastTx

Your choices were flawed. It will have more than 200k. Sub numbers will go up from release and not decline as well.

I doubt this game will have as many subs at their 6 month mark than they do at their 2 month mark.

I was always figuring about 150K, or higher after six month.
NA/EU combined totals would be around 300 to 400k.

I will be honest here:

Between 50k and 1 million. 

I CAN'T LOSE!!!

Originally posted by Mazin

 I doubt this game will have as many subs at their 6 month mark than they do at their 2 month mark.

Judging by the areas where the game has been released already for months, you couldn't be more mistaken.

I suggest you do a little research, instead of just tossing out a blanket statement.

I think around the 150k mark.  The 1-20 game really is going to nail some people.   The combat just isn't going to blow anyone away after coming from WOW or WAR.  Its very samey.  Very familiar without anythying really new.   Its hard to say how many will get through it.  Its like playing a  prettier version of WAR on the PvE side.  I say WAR because the zones are SO LINEAR with the same road down the middle leading you right to the next hub of generic quests...but no public quests to bring people together. 

People coming from WOW will be thumped by a major downgrade in the PvE and quest department, which is what most people in the west enjoy.  Less races to choose from.  Fewer actual choices to customize your character(stats).  Simplistic and fairly non-interesting starter areas.  Less things to actually do.  Fewer reasons to explore.  Invisible walls everwhere which boxes people in.  The PvP isnt' going to hold them.   Flying certainly isn't enough.  The ganking isn't going to make many happy.   I don't see the new patches doing much to improve things on a general level.  MORE generic quests still doesn't fix the problem that they're just generic.  RvR isn't enough, even if its good RvR, which it apparently is...even though balance is still questionable.  So far all signs indicate the dungeons just don't stand up to WOW's, so what does that leave the majority of people to do who don't like PvP?  Quit.  Rerolling alts in Aion just doesn't have the same fun factor as other MMOs due to the design of the 1-20 game.

Like AOC and WAR, they'll have nice numbers to start, then it'll fall month by month as many people get bored, evening out somehwere respectable.  It looks great, plays nice, but doesn't bring anything new.  For those that can get through the teens and into the 20s, there might be hope.

I`m not sure what`s more funny, the silly OP question or the "expert" answers  :)

A decline in subs usually happens for these reasons:

1. The developers hyped the game up, mass marketing to the wrong audience.

Developers haven't done much except post banners on gamesites and a recurring tv ad at EB Games/Gamestop. A few ads in a few magazines but thats pretty much it other than showing up at gameshows. Everyone has been very humble about it.

2. The end game sucks and the playerbase only found out after release.

Many of us have seen the end game and are pleased. There are things to do and the RvR is excellent. They aren't hiding it from us.

3. The game was too short, hit max level in a few days and nothing to do.

I'm not sure on this one but there are some very hard to obtain items in Aion. Some are reported to sell for expensive money in the RMT sector. End game might have been a problem pre 1.5 patch but 12 new instances and end game pvp over fortresses will tide me over at least until expansion.

4. Developers do massive changes after release changing the game completely and turning off the current playerbase.

Will be really hard to pull an NGE when we know the content we will recieve months before we get it. Aion is doing well in it's current form so we should only see NCSoft reinforcing the Aion gameplay mechanics.

5. Another, better game comes out that caters to the same market.

Not many AAA games due for release in the next 6 months. SWTOR won't be out until at least late 2010.

I believe we won't see a decrease in subs in a market where there is little better out there. The only arguement is WoW and people simply want the "2nd best thing" right now because they are tired of WoW. Korean MMO's tend to increase in subs for about a year through word of mouth. Lineage 2 started at about 70k subs and increased to 100k within a year despite WoW launching.

It will probably be at around 100k.

Which is pretty good for today's economy/Wow mmo dominance.

there wont be Aion in 6 months.. in 6 months everyone gonna be playing something else.

Aion is nice but wont hold people above 1 or 2 month subscription in my opinion.

Dependig on the reviews it receives at launch and if they can keep lag and bugs at a minimum. i'm going to go with 500K in NA and will hit a million in a year if the game gets great reviews.

The beta is smooth so we will see.

Originally posted by Thillian

Originally posted by JonMichael

Originally posted by Thillian

less than 50k. I hope americans still have some bits of sanity to not play anything that came from the rotten pits of NCsoft.

 

LOL.. sounds like a personal problem.

 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong. NCSoft is the only company that pulled the plug twice in a row within a short period of time. No matter what, if a game is not making money anymore, keeping at least one server up is a sign of their relationships with some long-term customers (even if its just a minority).

SoE at least keeps their games up, NCsoft just shuts them down if things turn out not that well.

Shame on them for being in business to make money! It's my god given right to play video games!
 

And I say...wth...1.2 mil

The PVP could hurt its numbers somewhat.. But I think it will draw many from WAR, DAoC (those that are left) AoC, and when people get the feel this game much like old EQ it could draw from them as well. HEck I still know people who play EQ1 and they are interested in Aion after messing around with the beta.

The game is more involved and slow going then games like WOW.. some people call it grind some people call it rewarding depends on which crowd you talk to.. I think alot of old school gamers will Aion but alot of the newer generation of gamers the ME ME ME ME ME.. I WANT IT NOW crowd will leave and call the game a grind..

I see the possibility of 500k probably more in the first 6 months... Why? Because the game runs smooth, is amazing looking has alot of polish and ALOT of content.. Multiple Open world bosses in competition. Instance Bosses .. Stuff for raiders and PVPs alike.. The crafting is great in the game. I see this game being very successful.

Originally posted by EduardoASG

there wont be Aion in 6 months.. in 6 months everyone gonna be playing something else.

Aion is nice but wont hold people above 1 or 2 month subscription in my opinion.

Do you have multiple personalities or something? In another topic you say if they can avoid the shortcomings of AoC and War it could be a hit then here you say it won't last six months.

I have no idea what the numbers will be like, I don't follow those statistics, but it will certainly be slower than WoW's was.  There was a ton of hype surrounding WoW, especially since they were competing directly with EQ2 at the exact same time.  Almost everyone in gaming new about it.  Aion does not have that type of focus.  Most people have never heard of it.  Word of mouth will be slower. Plus, the PvP focus will not appeal to as many people.

Man this thread is stupid.  You can really see the WoW fanboys in full force with every post here on this site.  it's like a sin for any game to even try to gain it's own ground without getting beat down by a WoW bible.

Originally posted by zunarn

Ok just curious how well you guys think Aion will do. WoW has 2.5m subs in North America but of course that didn't happen overnight. I'm predicting at least 200k subs since no other major mmo being released this year. It will be great to look back at this 6 months from now and see how people did in their prediction. Please no trolling!

 

 

 

The game will lose a ton of subs with swtor and ffxiv coming out in 2010.

Also the game not being known outside of the forum goer MMO community means it won't be that big. It just doesn't look as good compared to ffxiv and swtor, they make it look out of date. I am going to come back to these forums in 2010 and probably get a good laugh on all the fanboys who are brown nosing this game until they can't breathe.

 Hmm  hard to say , i know it definitly wont retain alot of the initial players personaly from what i played i dont see myself playing it for years or a year even. Unless the can keep me interested and dont fudge the game up.

Originally posted by Rajen

Originally posted by zunarn

Ok just curious how well you guys think Aion will do. WoW has 2.5m subs in North America but of course that didn't happen overnight. I'm predicting at least 200k subs since no other major mmo being released this year. It will be great to look back at this 6 months from now and see how people did in their prediction. Please no trolling!

 

 

 

 

The game will lose a ton of subs with swtor and ffxiv coming out in 2010.

 

Also the game not being known outside of the forum goer MMO community means it won't be that big. It just doesn't look as good compared to ffxiv and swtor, they make it look out of date. I am going to come back to these forums in 2010 and probably get a good laugh on all the fanboys who are brown nosing this game until they can't breathe.

So your saying a game thats been out a year and has a few million players in asia doesnt look as good as 2 games that are not even in beta and probably not in alpha yet ?  Drop the blinders and fanboyism for FF series and Starwars please.    How can anyone say FF14 or Starwars will be better when they have no clue how them games will turn out at all ? 

Very hard to say since around the 6 months Marker the expansion pack should be out or very close to coming out.