According to Newsweek, the recession is showing strong signs of being over with homes sales climbing up and stocks strong.

Given that job losses usually take much longer to bounce back after recessions are done historically, could it be that the United States is now out or climbing out with jobs to return within the next year or so?

Could Obama's plan be working and do you think within the next two years (giving Obama almost two more after), all the talk of gloom, doom and disaster will look silly in retrospect? Is it possible that Obama's plans will lift America out of the morass and decline over the past eight years of massive spending and deficits?

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No, the recession isn't over, sorry.

As I predicted in another thread, I feel we are most likely near the bottom now and things should be turning around by the end of the summer.

This probably would have happened with or without the stimulus -- the money hasn't really been spent enough yet to be doing anything --  the Fed and  it's easy money is what is doing it. This will create another boom like the last time and another bust -- just like this last time.

Get ready for DOW 19000 -- then we get either inflation, or if they raise interest rates to curb inflation, another bust and recession, this time worse because we are not correcting the inherent problems that keep doing this.

As always I hope I am right about the good stuff and wrong about the bad stuff.

Hey, guys?  Remember that "stimulus" money that was sent out there?  Where did that money come from?  Oh, out of thin air you say?  Isn't that going to cause some latent inflation?  Not to mention, who is going to pay that money back?  Oh yeah, it's the tax payers.  So, inflation is going to go up making our money we have worth even less and then on top of that we have to pay back a huge debt that Obama and Bush so willingly laid upon us to save their banking friends.

There are a lot of economists who are saying this is just the first wave of this problem.  They predicted that there could be some slight signs of improvement before the next wave comes.  And they say that the next wave is going to be even worse than this one.

But then, they predicted that people would want to call this an improvement too.  And that those would be the people who get burned. 

Go on and believe Obama.  Give him the credit for saving our asses when he has really done more damage than is showing now.  And then when he gets this single payer health insurance plan he wants to go through and puts an even greater burden on the taxpayers you guys can wonder why you believe in these Presidents and their cronies.

Seeing how obama hasn't spent much of the stimulus money and its obvious that its not needed .

cant he give the cash back?

Originally posted by Precusor

Seeing how obama hasn't spent much of the stimulus money and its obvious that its not needed .

cant he give the cash back?

It's Obama.  No, he can't give it back.  His head would explode.

Assuming the recession is over, this would provide ample proof Obama's stimulus package was not needed (and he did nothing to help) and this was simply a standard market adjustment in a free-market society.

As posed above, what shall he do with the remaining 85%+ that has yet to be spent to "stimulate" the economy? Pet projects? 

Originally posted by gnomexxx

Hey, guys?  Remember that "stimulus" money that was sent out there?  Where did that money come from?  Oh, out of thin air you say?  Isn't that going to cause some latent inflation?  Not to mention, who is going to pay that money back?  Oh yeah, it's the tax payers.  So, inflation is going to go up making our money we have worth even less and then on top of that we have to pay back a huge debt that Obama and Bush so willingly laid upon us to save their banking friends.

There are a lot of economists who are saying this is just the first wave of this problem.  They predicted that there could be some slight signs of improvement before the next wave comes.  And they say that the next wave is going to be even worse than this one.

But then, they predicted that people would want to call this an improvement too.  And that those would be the people who get burned. 

Go on and believe Obama.  Give him the credit for saving our asses when he has really done more damage than is showing now.  And then when he gets this single payer health insurance plan he wants to go through and puts an even greater burden on the taxpayers you guys can wonder why you believe in these Presidents and their cronies.

Well, the stimulus money is deficit spending, which isn't in and of itself inflationary, but that combined with the Fed printing money to stimulate the economy IS inflationary.

The deficit spending CAN be inflationary IF they try and pay it off by printing money. If they raise taxes to do it, it's recessionary. If they ignore it and let the debt just accumulate, sooner or later the piper comes due, and well, see options one and two.

NEITHER was good to do. It would have been just better to let the market run its course and let the bad businesses fail. Either way I am hopeful that the worst is over, at least for this round.  I don't believe Obama though lol. Far from it.

Originally posted by gnomexxx

Hey, guys?  Remember that "stimulus" money that was sent out there?  Where did that money come from?  Oh, out of thin air you say?  Isn't that going to cause some latent inflation?  Not to mention, who is going to pay that money back?  Oh yeah, it's the tax payers.  So, inflation is going to go up making our money we have worth even less and then on top of that we have to pay back a huge debt that Obama and Bush so willingly laid upon us to save their banking friends.

There are a lot of economists who are saying this is just the first wave of this problem.  They predicted that there could be some slight signs of improvement before the next wave comes.  And they say that the next wave is going to be even worse than this one.

But then, they predicted that people would want to call this an improvement too.  And that those would be the people who get burned. 

Go on and believe Obama.  Give him the credit for saving our asses when he has really done more damage than is showing now.  And then when he gets this single payer health insurance plan he wants to go through and puts an even greater burden on the taxpayers you guys can wonder why you believe in these Presidents and their cronies.

Nice take on this subject  Gnom,its going to get much worse.The debt is going to be a killer with in a couple of yrs.
 

Originally posted by Dekron

Assuming the recession is over, this would provide ample proof Obama's stimulus package was not needed (and he did nothing to help) and this was simply a standard market adjustment in a free-market society.

As posed above, what shall he do with the remaining 85%+ that has yet to be spent to "stimulate" the economy? Pet projects? 

Why let a crisis go to waste? He will use the money to buy off more and more voters so he can get a second term -- wasn't that what it was always about? just as his health care is designed to make the middle class wards of the state so that they keep voting for more/bigger government in an orgy of national self destruction -- but at least it gets democrats elected!

I thought that was what the stimulus bill was designed to stimulate -- government power. The ascension of socialist America (Amsoc is I guess what we should call it since the world is getting so Orwellian with the changing of word meanings and the post modernist deconstruction of all concepts that once meant "freedom.").

This is how liberty dies. Not with thundrous applause; but with everyone holding their hands out, begging for a dole.

Originally posted by popinjay

 

 

Could Obama's plan be working and do you think within the next two years (giving Obama almost two more after), all the talk of gloom, doom and disaster will look silly in retrospect? Is it possible that Obama's plans will lift America out of the morass and decline over the past eight years of massive spending and deficits?

Yes and no. It looks like we will be successful in propping the broken system back up to avoid a depression. However, we still have all the same risk inherent in the system that got us here to begin with. We need strong legislation to prevent this from happening again. Health care reform, financial regulations, and energy policy.

Originally posted by Fishermage

As I predicted in another thread, I feel we are most likely near the bottom now and things should be turning around by the end of the summer.

This probably would have happened with or without the stimulus -- the money hasn't really been spent enough yet to be doing anything --  the Fed and  it's easy money is what is doing it. This will create another boom like the last time and another bust -- just like this last time.

Get ready for DOW 19000 -- then we get either inflation, or if they raise interest rates to curb inflation, another bust and recession, this time worse because we are not correcting the inherent problems that keep doing this.

As always I hope I am right about the good stuff and wrong about the bad stuff.

 

I think we hit bottom in late June, or there abouts.  I'm thinking 14-16k DOW by March.

Will people wait 2 years to say it was a success or will they print magazines telling how OBAMA DID IT!!!?

The effects of the bank bailouts will start reeling its ugly head in a year.  Back in October, the congress voted for a short relief rather then a long term fix.  Most economists I follow have said when the bank bailouts were being printed that we will get a short boom from it, but a far worse bust.  Also its been said that the Stimulus will end up costing us $23 trillion if it ever gets paid off purely from interest.

I think the numbers are a little to low to actually call it over.  You have to remember the DOW was at 14,000; and home prices are 1/3rd what they were.  Many people are buying up foreclosed homes because of how cheap they are now.  It may create the same problems we just experienced as now Fannie Mae is doing the same thing insuring banks to give high risk loans and backing them with taxpayer money.

Originally posted by popinjay

According to Newsweek, the recession is showing strong signs of being over with homes sales climbing up and stocks strong.

Which article did you read?

"Worse, the data point that means the most to our psychological well-being—unemployment—is likely to keep climbing. The loss of 6.5 million jobs since December 2007 has spurred the sharpest rise in the unemployment rate since the 1930s. As manufacturing jobs move overseas and companies struggle to further reduce costs, unemployment—which stands at 9.5 percent—is likely to rise above 10 percent. "There's a difference between having an expansion and an economy that has recovered," says Lawrence Summers, Obama's chief economic adviser."

If Obama had any balls he'd take NAFTA and rip it to shreds.  As long as we're giving away jobs this is not going to magically go away.  He'd rather just take our money and give it to big business. 

I actually agree with Fishermage's first post about the subject earlier in the thread. And also, like Zindahias said in a different thread (I think it was him) we need to see the unemplyment rates lower a bit before we can start breathing a sigh of relief. The way things are going though, it certainly does seem like things are getting a bit better.

Originally posted by popinjay

According to Newsweek, the recession is showing strong signs of being over with homes sales climbing up and stocks strong.

It's too soon to tell.  We'll have a better picture when the next quarterly economic numbers come out.  My guess is the economy will still have shrunk a bit, but by less than in the last couple quarters.  And no, it's not the federal stimulus package that is helping.  It's more about businesses cutting costs and streamlining their companies, which is what always happens in economic downturns.

This is more like Newsweek cheerleading for Obama by trying to talk-up the economy.  Whether the recession is ending or not, it won't come in time to save Newsweek.  It's moved so far to the left, its readership is dwindling.  Sales are in the toilet.

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Originally posted by gnomexxx
And then when he gets this single payer health insurance plan he wants to go through and puts an even greater burden on the taxpayers you guys can wonder why you believe in these Presidents and their cronies.

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Single payer is where the government pays everything.

Obama's plan won't be single payer.

Originally posted by Dekron

Assuming the recession is over, this would provide ample proof Obama's stimulus package was not needed (and he did nothing to help) and this was simply a standard market adjustment in a free-market society.

As posed above, what shall he do with the remaining 85%+ that has yet to be spent to "stimulate" the economy? Pet projects? 

They already did that with the "stimulus" that is why it was always highly suspect to begin with.

Originally posted by clwoods

Originally posted by Fishermage

As I predicted in another thread, I feel we are most likely near the bottom now and things should be turning around by the end of the summer.

This probably would have happened with or without the stimulus -- the money hasn't really been spent enough yet to be doing anything --  the Fed and  it's easy money is what is doing it. This will create another boom like the last time and another bust -- just like this last time.

Get ready for DOW 19000 -- then we get either inflation, or if they raise interest rates to curb inflation, another bust and recession, this time worse because we are not correcting the inherent problems that keep doing this.

As always I hope I am right about the good stuff and wrong about the bad stuff.

 

 

I think we hit bottom in late June, or there abouts.  I'm thinking 14-16k DOW by March.

Earnings aren't going to support this. We will be doing well if we can get out of this year with dow 11k. 10k would be closer to reality, and we need better earnings to support that. Based on earnings the market seems over bought, but there is currently a lot of cash on the sidelines that might carry the current uptrend beyond what earnings would traditionally support.

None of that matters if people continue to lose jobs, and that this country is still in debt and functioning on borrowed money.  Home prices hit rock bottom, so of course people are buying them.  Obama didn't cause the housing crisis, but he sure didn't do anything to help it either.  To say otherwise is being naive.

As for the stock market, honestly wallstreet has been disconnected from the realities of mainstreet for a long time.  I honestly can careless if it goes up or down at this point.  The main concern I have is to get people jobs, so they can start working again, start paying taxes again.  Also equally important is to get rid of the debt this country is functioning on.  Until then, everything is pretty much a temporary illusion.