Here's my question:

Is the market big enough for there to be another genuinely mass-subscribed MMO without it leeching any of WoW's subs?

Or, to put it another way, does the 'Next Best Thng' have to be a 'WoW Killer' at all?

"The WoW Killer" is a stupid term in the first place. The market can be dominated by a triumverate of MMOs whether WoW "dies" or not.

The most likely scenario right now being WoW, Aion, and ToR (still a bit unclear at this point, though I think it's a likely candidate) dominating the market sub-wise. Aion and ToR will undoubtedly take some subs away from WoW, but WoW will still be doing well and fine, enough so that it will still be in a top position. Blizzard's new MMO is a variable, though. I believe that will ultimately affect WoW more than anything.

I think a market for two MMO titles with over ten million subscribers is not possible at the moment. Obviously Aion won't instantly be granted a multi-million subscriber base, but it will get there over time, POSSIBLY, leeching some users over from WoW.

I think Aion will be a success, with millions of subscribers world-wide, just how many millions remains to be seen.

To see two 'mega-games' like WoW coexist with over ten million active accounts per game will most probably take an other five to ten years as the MMO market develops.

Originally posted by Hrothmund

I think a market for two MMO titles with over ten million subscribers is not possible at the moment. Obviously Aion won't instantly be granted a multi-million subscriber base, but it will get there over time, POSSIBLY, leeching some users over from WoW.

I think Aion will be a success, with millions of subscribers world-wide, just how many millions remains to be seen.

To see two 'mega-games' like WoW coexist with over ten million active accounts per game will most probably take an other five to ten years as the MMO market develops.

Man you guys and your absolutes.

Before WoW came on the scene nobody thought any western MMO could break 500,000 subscribers.  And no asian MMO could break more than 4 million.

Clue folks:

There are already multiple MMO's out there that have MILLIONS of subscribers.   I think there are at least 4 asian MMO's that have over 2 million subscribers and at least one that claims it has 6 million (Granted they count subscribers a bit differently than WoW but the bottom line is there are games out there with very large numbers of players in them.)

that said, I agree, there won't be a "WOW Killer" just like there wasn't an "EQ Killer".  EQ isn't dead... it still has a seriously silly number of players considering how old it is.  UO isn't dead either... it still has 1/4 to 1/3 of the total player base it had at it's peak as well.  Pretty sure even the original Lineage isn't dead and it's as old as UO.    So, no, nothing is going to 'kill' wow.  Will it's subscriber base eventually decline?  Yep, you can count on it.  It's already plateaud, hovering at around 11mil for a year now.  It will slowly begin to decline over time now.  Probably eventually settling around 3million subscribers (right around 1/4 to 1/3 of it's peak player base just like every other MMO).  Then, once age and newer graphics and newer games finally start to take their toll it'll eventually even dwindle to sub 1mil numbers.

But will any one game kill wow?  No... WoW was the product of an absolutely perfect storm:

A market where there had been no decent MMO released for years... DAOC was the most recent major player on the scene and people were STARVED for a reason to try something new that were already in the genre.  And WoW not only tapped that but also tapped the non MMO genre because it not only had the warcraft name but also had the Blizzard name attached to it.  On top of that Blizzard played it SMART and didn't release the game until it was really ready!  (server stability issues due to unprecedented demand notwithstanding).

Will there be a wow killer?  No

Why?  Because no one game has ever 'killed' another game... and never will.

Another point to keep in mind is that Wow does not have the current amount of subs it does due to it being a great game.    It was a decent game, and it excelled at introducing non-mmo players to mmos, with lots of hand-holding, guiding them to the next zone and the next, etc.

At this point, so many players are just heavily invested (time-wise) in their characters that they are loathe to give them up, even if the game has lost most of its joy for them.   After say, 3 years into a character or 10, it's difficult for some to just scrap all the time and effort they put in.

Just my two cents.

Originally posted by Taram

 

Man you guys and your absolutes.

Before WoW came on the scene nobody thought any western MMO could break 500,000 subscribers.  And no asian MMO could break more than 4 million.

Clue folks:

There are already multiple MMO's out there that have MILLIONS of subscribers.   I think there are at least 4 asian MMO's that have over 2 million subscribers and at least one that claims it has 6 million (Granted they count subscribers a bit differently than WoW but the bottom line is there are games out there with very large numbers of players in them.)

 

that said, I agree, there won't be a "WOW Killer" just like there wasn't an "EQ Killer".  EQ isn't dead... it still has a seriously silly number of players considering how old it is.  UO isn't dead either... it still has 1/4 to 1/3 of the total player base it had at it's peak as well.  Pretty sure even the original Lineage isn't dead and it's as old as UO.    So, no, nothing is going to 'kill' wow.  Will it's subscriber base eventually decline?  Yep, you can count on it.  It's already plateaud, hovering at around 11mil for a year now.  It will slowly begin to decline over time now.  Probably eventually settling around 3million subscribers (right around 1/4 to 1/3 of it's peak player base just like every other MMO).  Then, once age and newer graphics and newer games finally start to take their toll it'll eventually even dwindle to sub 1mil numbers.

But will any one game kill wow?  No... WoW was the product of an absolutely perfect storm:

A market where there had been no decent MMO released for years... DAOC was the most recent major player on the scene and people were STARVED for a reason to try something new that were already in the genre.  And WoW not only tapped that but also tapped the non MMO genre because it not only had the warcraft name but also had the Blizzard name attached to it.  On top of that Blizzard played it SMART and didn't release the game until it was really ready!  (server stability issues due to unprecedented demand notwithstanding).

 

Will there be a wow killer?  No

Why?  Because no one game has ever 'killed' another game... and never will.

Just to pick up on the last line of your post.
 

If Star Wars: Tales of The Old Republic is a success it will be interesting to see how this affects the 'other' Star Wars game - SWG.

If SWG's figures continue to decline and SOE decides, as it finally did with Matrix Online, to pull the game, then it might accurately be said that 'ToR' killed 'SWG'.

I've never understood the term "killer" used in the context of one MMORPG will be the killer of another MMORPG, to mean it will cause the other game to go out of business.

I always thought it meant, beat the other games in terms of subscriptions numbers.

For a long time, nothing could beat EQ. Everyone called for teh EQ Killer, meaning the game that would beat EQ in terms of sub numbers.

That game was WoW, which trounced all other games in sub numbers.

It seems highly unlikely another game will come around in the forseeable future that will beat WoW in terms of sub numbers, adn thereforew be the WoW killer.

The market will simply be to splintered for that to happen, especially with the explosion of F2P games, new FPS type combat games, Anime games, games geared more towards kids, etc., etc.

There used to be no choices for players that like Anime artwork, for example, tnow there are. So you won't get most of those players in the same game anymore with players that can't stand Anime artwork. Those players will go their separate ways, unlike the days when you had very few choices if you wanted to play an MMO.