Originally posted by Lydon

Originally posted by Daffid011 

Care to disprove anything I have said?   Please feel free to point out my lies instead of lumping me into a group.  

Care to prove anything you said? Lol

Since you ask and maybe scoff, I have not problem backing up what I claim.  All of thise is easily found with a few google searches in under a few minutes. 

Free realms releases Tuesday April 28th:  [ www.massively.com/2009/04/27/free-realms-launches-tuesday/ ]

2 additional servers were added may 6th [ twitter.com/j_smedley/status/1730891591 ]

2 additional servers were added may 14th with promises of more to come [ twitter.com/j_smedley/status/1808881945 ]

1 Million players

17 days after release (May 14th) - Free realms hits 1,000,000 players registered [ www.freerealms.com/article/detail.action ]

Total number of servers active: 10

1,000,000 players divided by 17 days = average 58,823 new players joining every day

58,823 players didived by 10 servers = average 5,823 new players joining each server every day during this period.

2 million players

13 days later (May 27th) - Free realms hits 2,000,000 players registered [ www.massively.com/2009/05/28/over-2-million-now-served-in-free-realms/ ]

Total number of servers active: 10

1,000,000 players divided by 13 days = average 79,923 new players joining every day

58,823 players didived by 10 servers = average 7,923 new players joining each server every day for 13 straight days.

3 million players

16 days later (June 12th) - [ www.massively.com/2009/06/12/free-realms-breaks-the-3-million-mark/ ]

Total number of servers active: 10

1,000,000 players divided by 16 days = average 62,500 new players joining every day

58,823 players didived by 10 servers = average 6,250 new players joining each server every day.

A quote from the press release that is important

Today we are proud to announce that since our launch on April 28th, 2009 more than three million unique users have registered for Free Realms.

3 million unique players over the 46 days covered = 65,217 new players joining every day.  6,500 new player each day per server.   (I originally counted 47 days as I thought the press release on April 26th was the release date.)

All of the above is just taking the numbers that soe has released and applying averages to them.  Nothing is being twisted or turned.  Those are the facts that soe is presenting and I cannot change those in any way. 

Some other interesting points to note:

How big is the game world?

Here is how long it takes to travel by foot from the furthest points on the map without any mounts or boosts to travel speed.

Free realms: Most distant point north to south - 8 minutes.  Furthest East to west - 13 minutes

Hellfire peninsula in world of warcraft: North to south - 6 minutes, East to west - 10 minutes
 

While not 100% scientific, it shows just how small the entire world of free realms is in comparison and that is all the game offers to support a playerbase sized in the millions.

There are 10 servers before and after soe stopped displaying server population status shortly after the 1 million mark. 

The list does not raise or shrink dynamically and the common world area is not instanced within the game like conan or guild wars when to many players are in one place.   Free realms has just 1 server for every 300,000 unique players. 

To contrast that. 

When warcraft hit 10 million subscribers in January 2008 [ eu.blizzard.com/en/press/080122.html ], blizzard stated North America had 2.5 million subscribers and warcraft currently has 240 north american servers [ www.worldofwarcraft.com/realmstatus/ ] That puts the ratio of accounts to servers somewhere around 10,000 to 1.   (note that is not saying 2.5 million unique players either, just accounts)

I hope that answers your question and as I said earlier, anyone is welcome to point out anything that resembles a lie or misconceptions I might have.  That is what these forums are for and I'm big enough to admit when I make a mistake and learn something in the process.  

Here is a return question for you.  Considering the above information, do you find it believable that 10 servers can service the number of unique players that soe says are registering for free realms every day? 

Originally posted by Daffid011

**snip**

Here is a return question for you.  Considering the above information, do you find it believable that 10 servers can service the number of unique players that soe says are registering for free realms every day?

Give us a reason why we should believe some Joe Blow off the internetz that has some estimations and approximations over an official company statement.

Starting to sound like you have some kind of agenda to me . . . perhaps a little butt-hurt?
 

Originally posted by Locklain

Originally posted by Daffid011

**snip**

Here is a return question for you.  Considering the above information, do you find it believable that 10 servers can service the number of unique players that soe says are registering for free realms every day?

Give us a reason why we should believe some Joe Blow off the internetz that has some estimations and approximations over an official company statement.

Starting to sound like you have some kind of agenda to me . . . perhaps a little butt-hurt?
 

 

Just look at the numbers for yourself and make your own conclusions.  I stated my conclusion and when someone challenged me to back that up with some proof I did so.  I don't need you to believe me as you can look at the numbers from soe for yourself. 

If all you want to do is analyze the person and not the issues, then you can find speculation for agenda or implied emotion in everything.  If that is all you have to offer to the conversation then please spare us the bandwidth.

Originally posted by Daffid011

Here is a return question for you.  Considering the above information, do you find it believable that 10 servers can service the number of unique players that soe says are registering for free realms every day? 

 

I dont see problem with such numbers. Especially in this type of game. And also those 3M doesnt say active, how much time they spend online, how many accounts people have, what is main timezone or maybe players are almost evenly distributed accros world.  I guess some old SOE fans even could enter FreeRealms, see tutorial quest where you turn in mob, puke and quit. And yet it counts like another player. I join like once a few days now to play few minigames and I am counting like normal player. Also children dont usually get much playtime with computer... There is many reason why it can have 3M players.

 And from your numbers new account must be created every 15 seconds. It is really possible.

Also even though it sort of web based but I would prefer to download it. As sometimes I got like 10-20mb of info and stopped w hile loading, and new mb adds and it took ~5-10mins. Really annoying.  And dont say my internet is shit, it is above average in my country.

what are you all arguing about.. its registered users.. ever.. its not ones who creater char.. or even logged in the game..

its not the 3 mln active users. not 3 mln subs.. not 3 mln paying subs. its 3 mln which susrcribed. for all the right reason.. i doubt game have more than 50k active users. so who cares in 3 more years, they will say the yhave 50 mln users.. and still count your account.. even if you never logged in or even creater char or wtf is in the game..

Originally posted by Daffid011

Originally posted by Locklain

Originally posted by Daffid011

**snip**

Here is a return question for you.  Considering the above information, do you find it believable that 10 servers can service the number of unique players that soe says are registering for free realms every day?

Give us a reason why we should believe some Joe Blow off the internetz that has some estimations and approximations over an official company statement.

Starting to sound like you have some kind of agenda to me . . . perhaps a little butt-hurt?
 

 

Just look at the numbers for yourself and make your own conclusions.  I stated my conclusion and when someone challenged me to back that up with some proof I did so.  I don't need you to believe me as you can look at the numbers from soe for yourself. 

If all you want to do is analyze the person and not the issues, then you can find speculation for agenda or implied emotion in everything.  If that is all you have to offer to the conversation then please spare us the bandwidth.

Proof to your speculation?  Does that even make sense?  You have no inside information so until then you have no "proof" only more guesswork.

Originally posted by Locklain 

Proof to your speculation?  Does that even make sense?  You have no inside information so until then you have no "proof" only more guesswork.

Sorry, I will be more clear.  Someone accused me of lieing and making up information that I based my conclusions on.  Someone else asked me to show the proof of the numbers I was posting, to which I did above. 

There you have it, proof of the information that I posted and the conclusion I made based on that information both being seperate entities.  For the record, I never claimed to have an inside source.   Try not to put words in my mouth ok?

Originally posted by ElendilasX 

 

 And from your numbers new account must be created every 15 seconds. It is really possible.

Also even though it sort of web based but I would prefer to download it. As sometimes I got like 10-20mb of info and stopped w hile loading, and new mb adds and it took ~5-10mins. Really annoying.  And dont say my internet is shit, it is above average in my country.

If you think the numbers are possible, go to the spot where new characters log in and have a look for yourself.  Take a few minutes and see what you think after that.  75% of the people signing up are 17 and under so they should be on during daylight hours mostly.  New character logins should be far above the average at that time. 

Just look at the starting area and tell me if you think there are more than 20 total people there just starting the game.  That is only a few minutes worth of players and most of which should still be reading the instructions that pop up when you log in. 

I have a question, and this seems like the right thread.

Does anyone have any idea about how many users logged in to collect the 3M subscriber bonus package thingy? Have they released those numbers in the past? I was just wondering because I think you had 10-14 days to collect the reward and that would be a good indication of how many people log-in regularly.

My niece loves the game btw. It made babysitting super easy i must say! =D

Originally posted by Daffid011

If you think the numbers are possible, go to the spot where new characters log in and have a look for yourself.  Take a few minutes and see what you think after that

there are 3 spawn spots for starting players

- crossroads, highroad junction, stillwater crossing

I've never seen SOE claiming a person has to create a avatar to be counted

(and if im wrong - please show me a link stating otherwise)

likely they only have to create an account

some players may quit after seeing the Character Customization screen

I'm sure some people quit at an early stage of a game, but that would be normal for any mmo trial.  I will have to peek at the new user log in locations, thanks for the heads up.  Also, No soe never claimed a user had to actually try the game to be counted, but then how many people have to not try your game to have these numbers and not add a server for the last 2 million users?  Why did soe nearly double the number of release servers during the first million users, but nothing since then?

Imagine you played any of the following games. LOTRO (11 us servers), City of Heroes (11 servers), Age of Conan (8 servers), Warhammer online (15 us servers).  You had not played them for a month and a half.

Then one day you read that your game of choice had a population explosion and over 500,000 people were joining the game (us version) every single week for a month and a half.  You think to yourself, hey I will log back in and see how the game is doing.  When you do log in you notice there are no new servers, in game population looks no different than it did a month ago and the game is still rather empty of players.  You are surprised, because according to the company 75% of those people they claim are users fall under the age of 17 so they should be logging in during after school hours, but still nothing. 

Somehow I suspect if turbine, mythic, ncsoft or funcom was making these types of claims that soe is making people would not buy it for a moment.  I suspect people wouldn't be making excuses that the games are instanced so you can't see people, the game engine doesn't render other characters to reduce lag, players don't play 24/7, people go to a website and register for a game they will never play or any of the other rationale being used to avoid looking objectively at the data.

Yet somehow people want to belive that a game that has a gameworld which would struggle to fill 10% the size of any of those other games is somehow doing just that. 

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Daffid011

If you think the numbers are possible, go to the spot where new characters log in and have a look for yourself.  Take a few minutes and see what you think after that

there are 3 spawn spots for starting players

- crossroads, highroad junction, stillwater crossing

 

I've never seen SOE claiming a person has to create a avatar to be counted

(and if im wrong - please show me a link stating otherwise)

 

likely they only have to create an account

some players may quit after seeing the Character Customization screen

 

Hehe yah, didn't even think about that :p

As mentioned many times in this thread, you have to take the numbers for what they are : registered accounts, and as Nadia cleverly mentioned, people don't even need to login, let alone play the game, they only have to create an account.

WoW most likely have more than 50 million registered accounts ( hmm I wonder if I can get my hands on the number of registered accounts from WoW, just curious )

It would be stupid for SOE to lie about a number that means very little.

They should give us some real numbers, like Active Players.

Second Life for example gives us MUURL numbers, Monthly Unique User Repeat Logins, which means players have to login at least twice per month to be counted, and new accounts for that month don't count. Now that is something substantial.

Even better would be the number of MUURL that also bought for at least 5€ items or services ( if we talk about RMT games where we don't have subscriptions ), then we could compare them against subscription based games like WoW.

But they probably won't do that, because it seems that they just don't have that many active players.

Originally posted by Locklain

Originally posted by Daffid011

**snip**

Here is a return question for you.  Considering the above information, do you find it believable that 10 servers can service the number of unique players that soe says are registering for free realms every day?

Give us a reason why we should believe some Joe Blow off the internetz that has some estimations and approximations over an official company statement.

Starting to sound like you have some kind of agenda to me . . . perhaps a little butt-hurt?
 

 

The only one with an agenda here it seems is you.  Dedicated to supporting shoddy marketing hype verses real life facts.

Originally posted by CyberWiz

It would be stupid for SOE to lie about a number that means very little.

They should give us some real numbers, like Active Players.

This is a case of perception vs reality. 

Which statement would make freerealms look more successful and get them more story coverage on gaming sites?  3 million unique users or 100,000 paying customers?

Claiming 3 million users has web sites talking about breaking records and how well the game is doing.  If they said something like 100,000 paying customers then sites would wonder what is holding the game back and why it isn't doing better.  More stories would be about what is lacking.  100,000 subscribers isn't really the bench mark for success that it once was. 

Instead of real numbers we get numbers that don't represent reality.  Numbers that people are openly admitting can represent people that have never even tried the game, but at the same time believe can be supported by only 10 servers.  It is very clever on the part of soe from a marketing point of view, except the numbers they are posting could not possibly be supported by their servers and gameworld size. 

Originally posted by Daffid011

 It is very clever on the part of soe from a marketing point of view, except the numbers they are posting could not possibly be supported by their servers and gameworld size. 

and this is different from any other Free to play game - how?

Free to play games make publicity announcements about registered users

- I dont know of any other "proof" beyond their press releases

this goes beyond SOE and has for awhile

even Puzzle Pirates, claims 7 million registered

www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/4046/what_are_the_rewards_of_.php

its not a meaningful number except when compared to other Free to Play games making similar announcements

- and even then, tells you zero about cash or real players the games are generating

To those comparing WoW servers to Free Realms servers, you have to remember that in WoW, the world is dynamic and interactive. You can actually affect things within the world (IOW, you can kill mobs, mobs can kill you, agro you, note your presense, quest items appear and disappear depending on where you are, and there is a constant access of database for loot and such.

Free Realms is a static world. You cannot change anything in it. The mobs you encounter take you to a "minigame" type instance as soon as you engage it. And this instance is completely processed on your side. Heck, I am pretty sure someone can hack and intercept the data from their PC to the game servers and make their character get all the best drops in the game by just telling the server they got it.

This difference is huge, because it means you can have several times the amount of players in the same zone without it being a burden on the server's performance.

But again, this is besides the point. While they CAN handle large amounts of players per server, the fact still remains that not all 3 million players are playing at the same time, or have continued to play once they created their account. Then again, that fact goes for absolutely all MMOs out there.

There is no reason to be skeptic about the amount of registered users, since that information has to be Legally Correct. Currently active accounts (accounts that have been used during the past month/week) are a different story altogether, and SOE would not shoot themselves in the foot and mention that number.

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Daffid011

 It is very clever on the part of soe from a marketing point of view, except the numbers they are posting could not possibly be supported by their servers and gameworld size. 

and this is different from any other Free to play game - how?

 

Free to play games make publicity announcements about registered users

- I dont know of any other "proof" beyond their press releases

 

this goes beyond SOE and has for awhile

 

even Puzzle Pirates, claims 7 million registered

www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/4046/what_are_the_rewards_of_.php

 

its not a meaningful number except when compared to other Free to Play games making similar announcements

- and even then, tells you zero about cash or real players the games are generating

It isn't hard to believe that 7 million people may have signed up for a puzzle pirates account since 2003 when the game launched.  In that article you link, he also talks about real tangible numbers as well.  People who pay money and what percentage that is.  It sounds very different from the f2p article you used an example doesn't it?

The difference with soes claims is that their servers could not possibly handle the load of people they are claiming join the game in the time frame they are stating.  They are using terms like 3 million unique registrations and 3 million players which means unique people who are playing the game. 

Just looking at the servers it is obvious this game doesn't have 3 million people logging in over the last few weeks.  The only thing that shows impressive numbers are the press releases from soe.  Even those numbers when examined are totally unrealistic.  Every other number is modest at best and frankly a but underwhelming for a game with 3 million associated to it.  If this game has 3 million unique players trying it out over the last 7 weeks, then it has the worst retention rate of any game in history. 

Originally posted by Daffid011

 If this game has 3 million unique players trying it out over the last 7 weeks, then it has the worst retention rate of any game in history. 

you could be right

I expect SOE to claim 4 million registered before July 1  (if the current pace holds)

but what this means of actual players?  no idea

Lol I still want to play this game.  I've been enjoying the ads I see, and now this?  It's got to be fun.  It's nice to see an FTP game that includes mini games as well is massed community play