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Originally posted by Infalible

WAR is a success. It may not be the success that Mythic wanted it to be but it is still making a fair amount of money. AoC, Eve and LotRO are also successes. They ay have messed up when they released but they have come into their own and continue to grow (Eve has grown massively over the last 6 months and continues to do so). To say that an MMO ust break 1 million subscribers, or even 500,000 subscribers to be a grand success is a fair point but to say that any MMO that does not to that is a failure is a piss poor point.

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To you? Yes. But it's dishonest to say it's a success, but not what Mythic wanted it to be. They set certain goals and parameters about what success is. You as a customer/fan cannot redefine them and have them applied as if Mythic and EA would be happy with your take. I know you aren't saying fact, but its clear based on what was laid out as a successful model, your opinion is flat wrong. To say "Hey Mythic, you have 300k subs, grats!" when Mythic was looking for 500K is not successful. Actually, that would be woeful. They don't break a game down purely in terms of being #2; there's cost analysis as the overriding factor.

To CEO of Mythic Entertainment, Mark Jacobs and creator of Warhammer Online? It isn't.

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Mark Jacobs, 8/29/08:

With EA and the resources backing “Warhammer Online,” I asked Jacobs how one would measure a successful MMO in the age of “WoW” with its 11 million worldwide subscribers. “I would say we don’t have to get anywhere near that number to be considered successful,” he said. “Would I like us to be number one? Well, of course. Do we have to be number one to be successful? No. I want us to be no less than number two; that would make me very happy.” For the number two spot, Jacobs reasoned that “Warhammer” would need at least a half-million subscribers, which he guessed was close to what “Final Fantasy” and “EverQuest 2” have now. “Let’s just say north of half a million would mean we’re successful. Now how a far north? I wouldn’t mind being a little bit cold.”

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I think you should clarify the difference probably of who you mean. Now unless Mark Jacobs has come out in the past nine months and restated what his personal definition of success is regarding WAR, I think we'll just have to let this one stand. What is a good return for the other games you mentioned as far as 300K subs, yes they probably are happy with that because their games cost a lot less. But WAR spent more than those, especially EVE, so their returns are far different. EVE is operating right now on pure profit, whereas WAR is still trying to recoup startup costs. So what's successful for EVE isn't successful for WAR. Heck, EVE has been out since May 2003.

Eve Online is #2, not WAR. Mark Jacobs did not say 500k would be a "grand success" as you put it. He said 500k would have only been a "success". Logic dictates if the person who made the thing doesn't think it's successful by its OWN definition, I don't think a fan can just claim it is.

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Originally posted by Ogrelin
15$ * 300.000 = 4.500.000$

4,5M$ * 9 Months? = 40M

700.000 boxes * 50$?= 35M

+ the boxes they have sold since the 700.000 numbers were released.

Not that bad imho.

even if they haven't got all their investments back yet...I think it's safe to say they will eventually.

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The way business works is you buy something cheap and sell it high.

WAR sold those 700K boxes bulk to Walmart, Best Buy, Circuit City, Gamestop etc in bulk. Meaning that those places bought probably 50k boxes here, 25k boxes there, another 100k boxes to this guy. In order to buy that many boxes, they don't buy them for $50 from Mythic and then turn around and sell them to you for... $50 as well. They'd make no money at all. A store like Walmart is pure profit. If they sell it to you for $50, you can bet they didn't pay over $25 a box or they wouldn't even stock it. They'd make a deal with someone else or would'nt sell it.

Figure they sold 700K boxes for max $20 a box profit. Now recalculate your totals and see if that's still good. Then figure that the boxes they have sold since then have all been DEEPLY discounted for as little as $10 a box. Still looking good?

The only thing that matters is subs, and they have probably dipped back under 300k. They were 300k four months ago, and now they are still at 300k AFTER opening in a whole new world market. That's not good news. All that shows is as many new people that joined WAR, that many old people just quit. Non growth.

It's safe to say ANY game running several years will make their investment back, no matter how crappy it is. I'm sure Asheron's Call made all it's money back. Why? Because it's still running. Same with Matrix Online and other crappy MMOs. WAR will be no different as long as it doesn't shut down, which it won't. WAR can survive perfectly well with 3-4 servers NA side, which is what they will eventually fall to.

Originally posted by popinjay

 

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Originally posted by Ogrelin
15$ * 300.000 = 4.500.000$

 

4,5M$ * 9 Months? = 40M

700.000 boxes * 50$?= 35M

+ the boxes they have sold since the 700.000 numbers were released.

Not that bad imho.

even if they haven't got all their investments back yet...I think it's safe to say they will eventually.

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The way business works is you buy something cheap and sell it high.

WAR sold those 700K boxes bulk to Walmart, Best Buy, Circuit City, Gamestop etc in bulk. Meaning that those places bought probably 50k boxes here, 25k boxes there, another 100k boxes to this guy. In order to buy that many boxes, they don't buy them for $50 from Mythic and then turn around and sell them to you for... $50 as well. They'd make no money at all. A store like Walmart is pure profit. If they sell it to you for $50, you can bet they didn't pay over $25 a box or they wouldn't even stock it. They'd make a deal with someone else or would'nt sell it.

 

 

This is very true.

Also, keep in mind that there are shipping costs associated with a store getting their order. I used to buy for an upscale department in a store.

There was an automatic doubling of what I paid for the item and I would divide the shipping costs between all items and round up. However, if there were certain items that I knew would sell I might add an extra dollar for good measure.

Also, there were certain items that would have a greater markup because of their nature and that the market would accept a higher price.

Also, in order for me to get certain discounts I would have to order a certain volume of items. If I didn't think I could sell them and I had to order a lot then I wouldn't stock it.

yadda, yadda, yadda....

As you said, Mythic doesn't see all that money.

Also, if I am not purchasing directly from the source then we also know that the company I am buying for purchased it cheaper from their source.

Originally posted by popinjay

 

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Originally posted by Ogrelin
15$ * 300.000 = 4.500.000$

 

4,5M$ * 9 Months? = 40M

700.000 boxes * 50$?= 35M

+ the boxes they have sold since the 700.000 numbers were released.

Not that bad imho.

even if they haven't got all their investments back yet...I think it's safe to say they will eventually.

---

 

 

The way business works is you buy something cheap and sell it high.

WAR sold those 700K boxes bulk to Walmart, Best Buy, Circuit City, Gamestop etc in bulk. Meaning that those places bought probably 50k boxes here, 25k boxes there, another 100k boxes to this guy. In order to buy that many boxes, they don't buy them for $50 from Mythic and then turn around and sell them to you for... $50 as well. They'd make no money at all. A store like Walmart is pure profit. If they sell it to you for $50, you can bet they didn't pay over $25 a box or they wouldn't even stock it. They'd make a deal with someone else or would'nt sell it.

 

 

Figure they sold 700K boxes for max $20 a box profit. Now recalculate your totals and see if that's still good. Then figure that the boxes they have sold since then have all been DEEPLY discounted for as little as $10 a box. Still looking good?

The only thing that matters is subs, and they have probably dipped back under 300k. They were 300k four months ago, and now they are still at 300k AFTER opening in a whole new world market. That's not good news. All that shows is as many new people that joined WAR, that many old people just quit. Non growth.

 

It's safe to say ANY game running several years will make their investment back, no matter how crappy it is. I'm sure Asheron's Call made all it's money back. Why? Because it's still running. Same with Matrix Online and other crappy MMOs. WAR will be no different as long as it doesn't shut down, which it won't. WAR can survive perfectly well with 3-4 servers NA side, which is what they will eventually fall to.

That is incorrect, I believe. The patch isn't out yet, so Land of the Dead content is not in the game yet. Subs will go UP in the next coming months... it hasn't already peaked.

This game is still a success by MMO standards. It's possible it's not a financial success (we don't have all their records, so we have no idea), but it certainly was not a failure if it still has 300k subs and can only go up when the huge content updates roll out later this spring/summer.

Originally posted by ParkCarsHere

Originally posted by popinjay

 

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Originally posted by Ogrelin
15$ * 300.000 = 4.500.000$

 

4,5M$ * 9 Months? = 40M

700.000 boxes * 50$?= 35M

+ the boxes they have sold since the 700.000 numbers were released.

Not that bad imho.

even if they haven't got all their investments back yet...I think it's safe to say they will eventually.

---

 

 

The way business works is you buy something cheap and sell it high.

WAR sold those 700K boxes bulk to Walmart, Best Buy, Circuit City, Gamestop etc in bulk. Meaning that those places bought probably 50k boxes here, 25k boxes there, another 100k boxes to this guy. In order to buy that many boxes, they don't buy them for $50 from Mythic and then turn around and sell them to you for... $50 as well. They'd make no money at all. A store like Walmart is pure profit. If they sell it to you for $50, you can bet they didn't pay over $25 a box or they wouldn't even stock it. They'd make a deal with someone else or would'nt sell it.

 

 

Figure they sold 700K boxes for max $20 a box profit. Now recalculate your totals and see if that's still good. Then figure that the boxes they have sold since then have all been DEEPLY discounted for as little as $10 a box. Still looking good?

The only thing that matters is subs, and they have probably dipped back under 300k. They were 300k four months ago, and now they are still at 300k AFTER opening in a whole new world market. That's not good news. All that shows is as many new people that joined WAR, that many old people just quit. Non growth.

 

It's safe to say ANY game running several years will make their investment back, no matter how crappy it is. I'm sure Asheron's Call made all it's money back. Why? Because it's still running. Same with Matrix Online and other crappy MMOs. WAR will be no different as long as it doesn't shut down, which it won't. WAR can survive perfectly well with 3-4 servers NA side, which is what they will eventually fall to.

That is incorrect, I believe. The patch isn't out yet, so Land of the Dead content is not in the game yet. Subs will go UP in the next coming months... it hasn't already peaked.

This game is still a success by MMO standards. It's possible it's not a financial success (we don't have all their records, so we have no idea), but it certainly was not a failure if it still has 300k subs and can only go up when the huge content updates roll out later this spring/summer.

Sure, subscriptions will be on the rise, for about a month, maybe two, then the re-subscribers and newcomers have played it to the point where reality sets in and shows it's ugly face with a nowhere near completed game, dead servers, non-existant RvR and laggo extremo when you finally find some.

A few content patches and new classes won't save WAR or make thousands and thousands of people come flocking back. Get real. All the patches and content additions and who knows what so far has done nothing but drive more and more people away and rightfully so.

Im not trying to badmouth War here or anything but i played for about 6 months, the peak population in war was in months 2-3 after release.  After about half way through month 2 i watched about 20 people quit a couple weeks after reaching max level, i wrote them off as having rushed through content too fast.  For the next 3 and a half months i watched more than 80 more people quit the game.  Personally i have never witnessed anything like that in the 12 years of playing mmos.  By the time i quit, my guild had 4-5 people who logged on for anywhere between 1-3 hours a night and most of the time just sat around bored and talked on vent.

In my eyes War failed miserably, but i guess some could argue that keeping me for 6 months is a success.  Personally i think Aion is the next game i will play seriously as the game is polished and optimized to a level that War will never reach, and delivers everything war has to offer and more.  Even if i have only played the chinese version.

Originally posted by ParkCarsHere

Originally posted by popinjay

 

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Originally posted by Ogrelin
15$ * 300.000 = 4.500.000$

 

4,5M$ * 9 Months? = 40M

700.000 boxes * 50$?= 35M

+ the boxes they have sold since the 700.000 numbers were released.

Not that bad imho.

even if they haven't got all their investments back yet...I think it's safe to say they will eventually.

---

 

 

The way business works is you buy something cheap and sell it high.

WAR sold those 700K boxes bulk to Walmart, Best Buy, Circuit City, Gamestop etc in bulk. Meaning that those places bought probably 50k boxes here, 25k boxes there, another 100k boxes to this guy. In order to buy that many boxes, they don't buy them for $50 from Mythic and then turn around and sell them to you for... $50 as well. They'd make no money at all. A store like Walmart is pure profit. If they sell it to you for $50, you can bet they didn't pay over $25 a box or they wouldn't even stock it. They'd make a deal with someone else or would'nt sell it.

 

 

Figure they sold 700K boxes for max $20 a box profit. Now recalculate your totals and see if that's still good. Then figure that the boxes they have sold since then have all been DEEPLY discounted for as little as $10 a box. Still looking good?

The only thing that matters is subs, and they have probably dipped back under 300k. They were 300k four months ago, and now they are still at 300k AFTER opening in a whole new world market. That's not good news. All that shows is as many new people that joined WAR, that many old people just quit. Non growth.

 

It's safe to say ANY game running several years will make their investment back, no matter how crappy it is. I'm sure Asheron's Call made all it's money back. Why? Because it's still running. Same with Matrix Online and other crappy MMOs. WAR will be no different as long as it doesn't shut down, which it won't. WAR can survive perfectly well with 3-4 servers NA side, which is what they will eventually fall to.

That is incorrect, I believe. The patch isn't out yet, so Land of the Dead content is not in the game yet. Subs will go UP in the next coming months... it hasn't already peaked.

This game is still a success by MMO standards. It's possible it's not a financial success (we don't have all their records, so we have no idea), but it certainly was not a failure if it still has 300k subs and can only go up when the huge content updates roll out later this spring/summer.

He didn't mean the lotd patch he was on about the fact WAR was released in Russia and still has the same number of subs it had at the end of last year, which can only mean either the game totaly floped in Russia or the EU/US subs are still falling.

The latest pc gamer I read estimated War Numbers to be 100k, the number came with an inteview with Paul.

Originally posted by Colonial

The latest pc gamer I read estimated War Numbers to be 100k, the number came with an inteview with Paul.

Hmm I wouldn't put much stock in that unless they're actually guestimating on just the US or just the EU. That's too big a drop since the end of march I think. It's probably more likely between 200-300k.

I could not tell you how many total servers there are, but when I log in there are only 12 servers listed for North America and 2 for Oceanic.  I have not seen any server hit heavy in some time.  No idea how many servers are listed for Europe.

Admittedly I have not logged in to actually play in a few weeks, so maybe something changed and servers are hitting heavy again, but I see 5 servers that are being marked for the 20% bonus experience and renown.  That suggests to me that mythic just merged more servers.

I understand the ambiguity of the terms we have seen on this forum but they *did* use the term subscribers on their conference call *and* they have a definition of the term subscribers in there somewhere as well.

As such I'm inclined to believe them when they said 300k+ total at the end of the fiscal year (March). However, that's after RAF was released + The release to Russia. So despite the higher influx an RAF campaign would give you and despite the release in a new area they still only managed to break even on their subs . (which almost assuredly means they lost subs in the pre-russia areas, how many though, not a clue)

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Originally posted by Newhopes

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Originally posted by ParkCarsHere

That is incorrect, I believe. The patch isn't out yet, so Land of the Dead content is not in the game yet. Subs will go UP in the next coming months... it hasn't already peaked.
This game is still a success by MMO standards. It's possible it's not a financial success (we don't have all their records, so we have no idea), but it certainly was not a failure if it still has 300k subs and can only go up when the huge content updates roll out later this spring/summer.

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He didn't mean the lotd patch he was on about the fact WAR was released in Russia and still has the same number of subs it had at the end of last year, which can only mean either the game totaly floped in Russia or the EU/US subs are still falling.

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Thank you for not reading into it, Newhopes.

That is exactly what I wrote and meant. I'm too lazy to go back and check, but I don't think I mentioned LOTD at all in that post regarding 300k subs in Q4/2008 and 300k subs now in Q1/2009.

Originally posted by popinjay

 

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Originally posted by Newhopes

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Originally posted by ParkCarsHere

 

That is incorrect, I believe. The patch isn't out yet, so Land of the Dead content is not in the game yet. Subs will go UP in the next coming months... it hasn't already peaked.
This game is still a success by MMO standards. It's possible it's not a financial success (we don't have all their records, so we have no idea), but it certainly was not a failure if it still has 300k subs and can only go up when the huge content updates roll out later this spring/summer.

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He didn't mean the lotd patch he was on about the fact WAR was released in Russia and still has the same number of subs it had at the end of last year, which can only mean either the game totaly floped in Russia or the EU/US subs are still falling.

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Thank you for not reading into it, Newhopes.

 

That is exactly what I wrote and meant. I'm too lazy to go back and check, but I don't think I mentioned LOTD at all in that post regarding 300k subs in Q4/2008 and 300k subs now in Q1/2009.

Heh, that's my mistake. After reading your post again on a new day and a different way of thinking, I now completely understand and agree with what you were saying.

EA will not be happy with 300k and they are not idiots. They are more concerned with trends and moving averages.

Paul's still vidblogging. May 6, 2009 I didn't bother watching, so not sure if there's anything in in it.

Last I looked, EVE Online had 250k subs, and EVE Online is considered one of the most successful MMORPG's out there. 300k is very successful in my opinion.

Originally posted by tachgb

Last I looked, EVE Online had 250k subs, and EVE Online is considered one of the most successful MMORPG's out there. 300k is very successful in my opinion.

Eve and Mythic are vastly different companies.  What is successful for one many not be for another.

We know that Mythic spent "somewhere south of $100 million" dollar developing the game over three years.

Assuming revenue from 1,000,000 boxes sold at their 30% share = $15 million

300,000 current subscriber a $15 a month x 12 months = 54,000,000

Not to bad as they look to be 2/3 the way to repaying the initial investment in just the first year, but that is before factoring in a years worth of overhead.

Assuming they were to keep their staff size the same a prelaunch, advertising, bandwidth and other new overhead associated with post release game I would guess they are at least running on the same budget they would have been.   That would remove 1/3 of the "somewhere south of $100 million" budget repayment since it would just be spent again as an ongoing expense  Which would mean only 1/3 of the original investment would be getting repaid which would put them on pace to pay the investment off 6+ years after the initial investment. 

Assuming they find a way to make up for loss of $15 million revenue in box sales the second and third year and can retain 300k users for the next 3 years which is no easy task in this genre. 

I know the math is very ugly and filled with speculations, but I bet it isn't to far off the mark.  That is a monster of an investment for a computer game and to not have it see positive revenue for over 3 years after release isn't really successful.  I know there have been some staff cuts at mythic so the numbers will be a little lower, but still. 

300,000 subscribers is a big number, especially using 1999 standards.  However is it really successful considering what was put into the game from the start.  Mythic even stated their break even point was 250,000 users.  Somehow I don't think EA invested this amount of money to effectively get a game with a positive base of 50k users.

Considering the size of the overall market I don't think it is that hard to get a couple hundred thousand players willing to pay for the possibility of potential unless your game is absolute garbage.  The reason we haven't seen what a real successful game can do is because no one outside of a small handful of games are doing that.  Other just keep repeating the same mistakes of the past.

Originally posted by Infalible

WAR is sitting at just over 300,000 subs right now. AoC is sitting at just under 300,000 subs right now. Eve Online is sitting at just over 300,000 subs right now. LotRO is suspected to be sitting at somewhere between 300,000-400,000 subs right now. Are you starting to see the running trend here? The only sub-based P2P game that breaks established convention in the west is World of Warcraft at 5,000,000 (excluding Asia).

I'm not sure what dreamworld you're living in, but AoC's subs are nowhere near 300,000.  The entire quarterly income for Funcom isn't even high enough to equal the income of a 300k sub game.  AoC might be around 200k, EVE is over 300k currently, lotro broke 300k when moria was released, and warhammer is somewhere around 300k, and will probably spike back up to 400-500k for a month when lands of the dead come out, depending on how good/bad it is, with it staying higher if it's good, or dropping off if it's bad (losing those who are still on the fence, but holding out for it).

Then you have Aion, which is getting the standard "THIS GAME IS A GODSEND" worship, that will be decent, but at its core still appears to be a pvp-based (anime looking) MMO that will likely do like war/aoc did, selling a lot, then dropped down to a few hundred thousand, depending on how much there is to actually do in the game.

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Originally posted by tachgb
Last I looked, EVE Online had 250k subs, and EVE Online is considered one of the most successful MMORPG's out there. 300k is very successful in my opinion.

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You should "look" again. Apparently you didn't look this month.

May 6th 2009- EVE Online turns 6 today, announces over 300k subscribers

Originally posted by tachgb

Last I looked, EVE Online had 250k subs, and EVE Online is considered one of the most successful MMORPG's out there. 300k is very successful in my opinion.

The difference one of those subs are stable even slowly riseing the others on the other hands still falling, if Wars sub base was a stable at 300k it would be a fairly successful game but the signs are that the sub numbers are still going down.

Originally posted by popinjay

 

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Originally posted by tachgb
Last I looked, EVE Online had 250k subs, and EVE Online is considered one of the most successful MMORPG's out there. 300k is very successful in my opinion.

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You should "look" again. Apparently you didn't look this month.

May 6th 2009- EVE Online turns 6 today, announces over 300k subscribers

 

So, with the above, are you saying that EvE is a success with 300K subs, or that WAR is a failure with 300K subs?

Ok, unfair question.  We all know what you're saying - it's your sole contribution to this forum - "WAR is bad."  Right?

I know, I know.  You're argument is based on subs versus production costs.  Unless you're a major stockholder, that's not much of a popular concern, nor is it much of a commentary on the enjoyability of a game, unless you are contending that most players derive enjoyment not from playing a game, but from their deep and abiding concern for the financials of the company that produced it.

From a player perspective, both EvE and LOTRO are considered good, quality, enjoyable games within their genre, and have some of the highest sub numbers for a Western MMO to back that up.  From that standpoint, WAR currently has virtually the same number of subscriptions that both of those games do.

Additionally, given the rose-colored glasses, "Golden Age" talk that gets thown about, it's likely that WAR currently has more subscribers than either DAoC or UO had at their highest point ever (~250K each).

I've stated this before - I'm not much of a believer in sub numbers meaning that I will find a game fun or not.  To me, as long as a game draws enough subs to keep the game alive and continue to develop it, that's good enough.

What sub number would make you happier, and obsess less, about a game you don't play, and don't have much personal experience with?