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Thats my outcome after comparing few diffrent factors of known stats. Warhammer just realeased their sub number of 300 k wich is in fact the highest known dropout of subs from a MMO game every (over 60%) in 2 months. My calculations are not higly sientific but I consider this number to be realistic. Only way we know for sure is if Funcom released real numbers. EA had the guts to do so even tho the stats didn't favor them. We can be pretty sure that Funcom numbers are not to pretty to look at cause belive me.. then they would be the first to splash them all over the frontpage - just like they did with their "fastest selling MMO game ever !"
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2/04/09 5:09:52 AM#2
Frobner, You are really asking to be flamed. I'm all for AoC as its my current MMO of choice, but to suggest you have came to this outcome after "comparing few diffrent factors of known stats" is a joke. Most of us are highly educated. If you want to make a statement like this please include the calculations and the sources for the numbers you are using. And please proofread your post if you are trying to suggest a fact that some people may argue you on. Such as misspelling the words 'different' in your sentence when talking about the stats, and then misspelling 'scientific' when suggesting that your methods may not be highly scientific just makes people doubly doubt any validity to your statement. While i think AoC has about 100-150k subs, i can say so as my opinion, but if you suggest you came to this relevation using a "few diffrent factors of known stats", then you have to back up what you say with testable results and data. If you are really out to just troll, at least take the time to learn, there are some really ingenious trolls here on MMORPG. Ones that while they troll, are clever enough to get a chuckle out of most of the posters. |
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2/04/09 5:14:27 AM#3
Would like to see facts instead of speculation and shouldnt say any number at all if you cant backed it up, makes you sound a little trollish. Funcom might release as EA did you should wait and see. Smarter than the average bear? That is assuming bears are smart. |
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2/04/09 6:24:06 AM#4
If AOC was doing as good as some of you would want everyone to think, FC WOULD release sub numbers. Everyone knows the reason MMO companies dont release these numbers. They didnt hesitate to say they had 400k, but knew subs would drop and stated they would not be releasing numbers anymore, wonder why. If they were doing so well, we all know the sub numbers would be plastered on the forums every month.
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2/04/09 6:40:14 AM#5
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2/04/09 6:43:51 AM#6
Originally posted by convict
Funcom said pre launch they would see it as they had failed to meet the expectations if they got 100k susbcribers so I doubt they would be eager to claim these numbers as good numbers. People seems obsessed with subscription numbers when it comes to MMO's these days, subscription numbers alone don't tell us if a game is good or bad. |
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2/04/09 7:01:10 AM#7
That is a very good point, AoC would only have around 100 users if it was based on that. |
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2/04/09 7:19:42 AM#8
While the OP may sound like a troll throwing numbers around, "omg the troll is throwing number around! numbers hurt my feelings! amagad!" I feel (in my humble opinion) that it is a relatively accurate estimate. Why? Well factor in the server merges, the relatively sharp drops seen in the player base throughout the game's history, xfire numbers, forum activity and lastly general consensus. My educated guess would tell me that its around the 100-150k mark. I'll bet money its not over 300k (which WAR is right now).
Currently Playing Random shizzle!
Waiting on TERA, GW2, TSW |
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2/04/09 7:28:11 AM#9
Originally posted by Frobner
The highest known dropout rat for an mmo is 100% in less than three months and it's been achieved several times. WAR is doing fine. The normal dropout rate is 50% for paid subscription box games. 100-150k subs is a believable numberand considering the conditions AoC launched under. It's certainly enough to turn a profit and build on. "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice." ~Greys Law |
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2/04/09 9:11:09 AM#10
100k is about what most people have AOC at. It's difficult to tell based on server populations at the moment because of the server mergers and the hype surrounding that. Any time there is a big change to a game (patch etc) the amount of people playing increases just because of curiousity. The deeply discounted boxes was also a boon for AOC as far as getting new players (at a time when Warhammer was fading). The first time AOC had a bunch of new players, they failed to keep them past the free month. We'll see what happens this time. Usually the most accurate way to predict populations is by the number of servers and their relative population. AOC, despite doing the mergers, kept a bunch of very low population servers active because of their location/ruleset. |
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2/04/09 9:36:29 AM#11
When i saw the title of the thread I drooled all over myself at first, seeing I had just had a thread locked where I used a benchmark method to help determine proportions compared with other mmorpgs.
To me FC is almost "snake-like" for not releasing the info--I just can't help think with their reputation that they are just concealing the truth, and after all the lies they fed their customer base, well it suits them to omit anything and everything they can. So now the question becomes...even if FC released the numbers...would you believe them? Would those be active players, alts? I would personally have to cut whatever number they said in half...because that's the kind of repetuation they have made for themselves People say the population has increased since the mergers--but im not sure why they think that (on the US side). I expected to see way more people. But people play at different times and have different schedules...but still it wasn't like it was at launch, back then there were way more people. (regarding the US side, im sure the pop on the Euro side is better) |
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2/04/09 9:37:46 AM#12
My guess would be in that area, too. I don't think AOC did as well as WAR, but while WAR's numbers continue to plummet, I think AOC's might be slowly growing - now that it's playable, and people are able to see what a solid game it is. Maybe as mainstream rigs are catching up, I dunno. In the long run, I'm think AOC might do ok. If it can just surive in the interim. When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world. |
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AmazingAvery
 Age of Conan Advocate
Joined: 1/16/07
The only time you run out of chances is when you stop taking them. |
2/04/09 10:13:33 AM#13
My feeling regarding subscription numbers are: Is the company making enough money to continue to support the game with decent additions
Is it normal for most P2P mmo's to release sub numbers when doing well or not at all
Is there enough people in game to have an enjoyable experience.
Have I ever had issues finding a group when I need one.
Do I find the game enjoyable and worth my money
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2/04/09 12:44:41 PM#14
Originally posted by AmazingAvery MMORPG.com pays for your account as an AoC Correspondent ? |
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2/04/09 1:09:48 PM#15
Originally posted by zymurgeist
The highest known dropout rat for an mmo is 100% in less than three months and it's been achieved several times. WAR is doing fine. The normal dropout rate is 50% for paid subscription box games. 100-150k subs is a believable numberand considering the conditions AoC launched under. It's certainly enough to turn a profit and build on.
Not to mention that its pretty well accepted that AOC had a greater loss than 60%. Thats mmo business speculation and based on FC advertised numbers that they had at release but for those that were around that witnessed the mass exodus its pretty much beleived to be true. |
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AmazingAvery
Age of Conan Advocate
Joined: 1/16/07
The only time you run out of chances is when you stop taking them. |
2/04/09 1:36:29 PM#16
Originally posted by Unfinished MMORPG.com pays for your account as an AoC Correspondent ?
No - I declined, no point armoring those that dislike what I say even more so ;)
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2/04/09 1:42:37 PM#17
Originally posted by AmazingAvery
No - I declined, no point armoring those that dislike what I say even more so ;)
And your 'Win a trip to Oslo' didn't include free AoC game time? |
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AmazingAvery
Age of Conan Advocate
Joined: 1/16/07
The only time you run out of chances is when you stop taking them. |
2/04/09 2:29:32 PM#18
Originally posted by Unfinished
No - I declined, no point armoring those that dislike what I say even more so ;)
And your 'Win a trip to Oslo' didn't include free AoC game time?
Nope. Wouldn't expect either from either point. Did include dropping the NDA for the visit though :)
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2/04/09 2:33:45 PM#19
Originally posted by AmazingAvery
And your 'Win a trip to Oslo' didn't include free AoC game time?
Nope. Wouldn't expect either from either point. Did include dropping the NDA for the visit though :)
Too bad the NDA for the Alpha / Early Beta wasn't dropped, I think fans would find it very interesting and rather heartbreaking. |
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AmazingAvery
Age of Conan Advocate
Joined: 1/16/07
The only time you run out of chances is when you stop taking them. |
2/04/09 2:53:54 PM#20
Originally posted by Unfinished
And your 'Win a trip to Oslo' didn't include free AoC game time?
Nope. Wouldn't expect either from either point. Did include dropping the NDA for the visit though :)
Too bad the NDA for the Alpha / Early Beta wasn't dropped, I think fans would find it very interesting and rather heartbreaking.
Not much point really, the concept and design principles were already in place and known, everything else subject to change as per any mmorpg at that level of development. Have to protect business interests as well. Consider the bigger picture from that point of view. If ever you worked with NDA's from where it would effect you then maybe you might understand a bit more. Besides they were very open with information some 9000 forums posts from dev's giving updates as they went along taking in feedback and such. Knowing how a game starts 4 yrs before it releases wouldn't have any bearance on sub numbers.
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