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World of Warcraft

World of Warcraft 

General Discussion  » I predict a rapid exodus of players from WoW in early 2009

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345 posts found
  Ahiles

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/18/07
Posts: 465

1/11/09 11:05:00 AM#161
Originally posted by woody1974
Originally posted by rav3n2

Dont people get tired of these predictions according to some people WoW has been dying the last 4 years yet the population keeps on growing,


 

According to who? Blizzard....lol...the guy with no life who has 36 Shaman accounts...WoW has reached its peak.. The downhill slope is in view...it is not going to get any bigger...Just about any software store you go to have you noticed all those copies of BC and Wrath still sitting on the shelf? Ive seen copies getting boxed back up to make space for other games..

Blizzard is a business and they are in the business of making money so why would they ever tell you that their sales and sub numbers are on a decline...Hell im not even a math wiz and I wouldn't be that dumb.

Other signs of a doomed game: Recruit a Friend, nerfing raid bosses, kicking the hardcore players in the nads because they have more casual players and they want to focus the game that way...its all about  MONEY.....say what you want that is the truth.

 

 

Ah look who it is, our good friend Woody.   Your rantings like Greyhoofs, are the best I read here.

  popinjay

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/07/07
Posts: 6638

Aaron Rodgers>Brett Favre

1/11/09 11:20:05 AM#162


Originally posted by woody1974

Originally posted by rav3n2

Dont people get tired of these predictions according to some people WoW has been dying the last 4 years yet the population keeps on growing,


 
Other signs of a doomed game: Recruit a Friend, nerfing raid bosses, kicking the hardcore players in the nads because they have more casual players and they want to focus the game that way...its all about  MONEY.....say what you want that is the truth.
 


Why are you talking about Warhammer here in this Wow thread again?

Recruit-a-friend after 4 months on the market?: WARHAMMER. (Wow didn't do this four months after they released, did they?).

Nerfing raid bosses (Mythic is doing that to the Lords now as we speak, because of the server cap they just put on, the bosses are TOO hard, and gear isn't dropping enough to deal with the bosse's AoE's).

Kicking hardcore players in the nads... Mythic. (server caps, putting in NEW classes and other junk while not fixing the old stuff for Level40s boredom. Mythic is prepping the game for FUTURE customers, not the existing base)

Err.. WHO's focus here is all about the money again? Talk about truth, it's staring you in the face in you stop ostriching. You need to get off these boards and check out official VN Warhammer boards where Mark Jacobs holds court. It's a damn near mutiny over there and they are OPENLY ridiculing/mocking him on his own semi-official site. And those are WARHAMMER fans doing it who are Level40 playing the game.

When you finally reach level40, come back and update us on things, ok? Bopping around in Scenarios at level10-20 is NOT an accurate overall picture of the game's fun factor and stability.

I know you love Warhammer wooody, but you have to face REAL facts one day, no?

  User Deleted
1/11/09 11:20:07 AM#163
Originally posted by woody1974
Originally posted by rav3n2

Dont people get tired of these predictions according to some people WoW has been dying the last 4 years yet the population keeps on growing,


 

According to who? Blizzard....lol...the guy with no life who has 36 Shaman accounts...WoW has reached its peak.. The downhill slope is in view...it is not going to get any bigger...Just about any software store you go to have you noticed all those copies of BC and Wrath still sitting on the shelf? Ive seen copies getting boxed back up to make space for other games..

Blizzard is a business and they are in the business of making money so why would they ever tell you that their sales and sub numbers are on a decline...Hell im not even a math wiz and I wouldn't be that dumb.

Other signs of a doomed game: Recruit a Friend, nerfing raid bosses, kicking the hardcore players in the nads because they have more casual players and they want to focus the game that way...its all about  MONEY.....say what you want that is the truth.

 

 

Of course its on a downward slope. Everything comes to and end. The question is how STEEP is that slope....and to listen to many of you, all 11 million players will stop playing this year.

The thing that most people forget is that WOW has, oh, about 9 million more players than Blizzard ever thought they would have. So WOW can lose several million players and still be a healthy game.

See, if WOW loses players like that, it won't be a big deal like it would be in other games. For example, in WAR, unless the player loses are equal on both sides, the game becomes incredibly unbalanced and people leave due to that. In Age of Conan, with the majority of the end-game based on PVP, people will leave because there isn't enough people left to do sieges (same with DAOC).

With WOW's endgame, all you need is 10 people and occasionally 25. Those are easy numbers to maintain. In other words, due to WOW's casualness at the end-game, Blizzard does not have to worry about game mechanics and design causing people to leave (like they had to worry about when it first launched when everything was 40 man).

Now as for your other signs:

1. Recruit-a-Friend: it is a brillant program for people who want to try WOW and be able to play with their friends. I have used it and it helped my fiance (now wife) level a character so she could play/group with my friends and I. Also, this program has been around for a while now and started back when WOW was growing by leaps and bounds.

2. Nerfing raid bosses: Not a sign of a doomed game, but a sign of developers who understand their playerbase (I wish more games had these devs). They nerf it after its been out a long time so people can see it and experience the content. Sure, you are not first or the best to do it, but most players do not care, they just want to see it. Besides, they only do this right before a major expansion anyway (like WOTLK) and nobody is going back to that content after the expansion anyway.

3. I am not sure how focusing on casual players and not hardcore players is a sign of a doomed game when 95% of your player base is casual. Seems like a smart business move to me. And yes, it is all about the money because Blizzard knows who their playerbase is and do what they can to make them happy.  And as long as they do that, WOW is not a doomed game. One day it will lose a lot of players and it will probably have to merge servers or do server transfers. But even then, I think many game will wish they had the sub numbers that WOW does.

  popinjay

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/07/07
Posts: 6638

Aaron Rodgers>Brett Favre

1/11/09 9:40:50 PM#164


Of course its on a downward slope. Everything comes to and end. The question is how STEEP is that slope....and to listen to many of you, all 11 million players will stop playing this year.


Of course they all predicted this year as the Wow downfall..

They saw one guy say that, so they just assume everyone is saying it. It's like when the Y2K bug was supposed to happen. No one actually asked people who knew anything about the coding much. It was much more newsworthy and sensational to stir up a story and hope it gets a life of its own. Then when the event doesn't happen, so many people were saying it, no one knows who the originator was.

"Wow will have a rapid exodus in early 2009". Now someone can honestly say "I saw it on the internets." And it's since its in print and on the internets, must be true.

So yeah, it's going to blow up this year, you just read it.

  rozenblade1

Novice Member

Joined: 12/14/08
Posts: 501

"Your mother has cataracts."

1/11/09 10:17:53 PM#165

WoW has been a phenomenom amongst the MMO community, but, like all great things, it too will come to an end.  I don't think it will just completely fall off, as I still see people starting new subs, but it's popularity will drop.

I don't think WAR will take it's place, because most WoW players are going to disperse to several other games. 

I know many that have come to LotRO already. Many have gone to WAR, but until they fix certain issues, it will not meet peoples expectations.  With FC fixing the problems in AoC, I have noticed new players, some even coming from WoW.  Many WoW players will go to Darkfall, I know this because many WoW players are awaiting it's release.  Others will simply try other MMO's until they find one they are happy with, or until the next big thing comes out.

This is just the way I see it. 

PLAYING: NOTHING!!!
PLAYED:FFXI, LotRO, AoC, WAR, DDO, Megaten, Wurm, Rohan, Mabinogi, RoM

WAITING FOR: Dust 514

  gorgona

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/06
Posts: 43

1/12/09 7:12:21 AM#166

 I already cancelled my WoW sub, too boring after a month of the same crap in Wotlk...collect 25 badges get the shiny glowing item...do 5 repeatable quests every single day to grind exalted, so you can buy the shiny sword...Grind same instances over and over everyday. Participate in raid in which addons tell you every single move you need to do on boss, tactic wise...

 Not inventive at all...

  Lydon

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/20/06
Posts: 2766

1/12/09 8:38:19 AM#167
Originally posted by woody1974 

According to who? Blizzard....lol...the guy with no life who has 36 Shaman accounts...WoW has reached its peak.. The downhill slope is in view...it is not going to get any bigger...Just about any software store you go to have you noticed all those copies of BC and Wrath still sitting on the shelf? Ive seen copies getting boxed back up to make space for other games..

Blizzard is a business and they are in the business of making money so why would they ever tell you that their sales and sub numbers are on a decline...Hell im not even a math wiz and I wouldn't be that dumb.

Other signs of a doomed game: Recruit a Friend, nerfing raid bosses, kicking the hardcore players in the nads because they have more casual players and they want to focus the game that way...its all about  MONEY.....say what you want that is the truth.

 

That was one of the most non-sensical rants I've heard yet. 


Do you have any sort of idea as to how stores work? When items are selling well they tend to place more of them on the shelf at any given time and ensure they're there for the taking and in-you-face. If you need any more proof that the game is still selling well I suggest you take a look at the latest PC software sales charts, as the facts are right there. Simply looking at the Current Best Sellers list of a local online store, both WoW and TBC have entered the list once again, despite both being two of the best selling games on the site ever. 


Blizzard won't tell you their subs are declining because they aren't. They just recently announced their highest subscription numbers ever. 


Not a single fact is stated in your post. Instead you've opted to argue with opinion and assumptions.

  popinjay

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/07/07
Posts: 6638

Aaron Rodgers>Brett Favre

1/12/09 11:37:55 AM#168


Originally posted by gorgona
 I already cancelled my WoW sub, too boring after a month of the same crap in Wotlk...collect 25 badges get the shiny glowing item...do 5 repeatable quests every single day to grind exalted, so you can buy the shiny sword...Grind same instances over and over everyday. Participate in raid in which addons tell you every single move you need to do on boss, tactic wise...
 Not inventive at all...

Just curious, how long had you played Wow before you stumbled upon the fact that it was "not inventive" at all? How long was your /time played info in Wow?

  User Deleted
1/12/09 11:56:05 AM#169
Originally posted by gorgona

 I already cancelled my WoW sub, too boring after a month of the same crap in Wotlk...collect 25 badges get the shiny glowing item...do 5 repeatable quests every single day to grind exalted, so you can buy the shiny sword...Grind same instances over and over everyday. Participate in raid in which addons tell you every single move you need to do on boss, tactic wise...

 Not inventive at all...

 

If that is all you are getting out of WOTLK, then it is time to move on. The game offers so much more but the player has to choose to see it and find it. Personally I love doing all of the quests even though I hit 80. I still have Scholzar Basin, Grizzly Hills and Icecrown left to do.

  googajoob7

Novice Member

Joined: 4/12/06
Posts: 877

1/12/09 11:57:22 AM#170

well i can only speak for myself i ve spent the last two months level up my two main characters to level 80 . one horde one alliance . i ve enjoyed doing this and seeing the new content . but upon reaching 80 i ve found for at the moment at least there seams to be very little interest in pvp in wow . the battlegrounds are nearly dead and wintersgrasp is laggy as hell so i ve decided to go back to warhammer and lord of the rings for a few months .

i proberbly will return to wow sometime in the year but with several other quality mmos out now and others of less quality but cheap to buy and try or even free that interest me . i no longer see the point staying in wow all the time .

if warhammer is improved upon it would be the natural place for most of the bored warcraft crowd to go . its pvp is essentially better than wows in my opinion .

lord of the rings offers as decent pve with a more serious storyline . i find it a lot of fun as well .ddo and everquest 2 are buyable now in the uk for about 2-3 pounds and conan can now be brought for 5-8 pounds . although these are games i doubt i d want to subscribe to i think they might be worth a try . also runes of magic looks like it may be worth a look at .

theres an awful lot to do if your bored with wow nowdays . i think there will certainly be a slump in warcraft this year . ecconomic factors will effect it like everything else . i think its peaked but it will be here for its tenth birthday and proberbly will still have a sub base of 3 maybe 4 million even then .

i doubt there will be a wowkiller . at least not for a few years yet .

  popinjay

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/07/07
Posts: 6638

Aaron Rodgers>Brett Favre

1/12/09 12:37:49 PM#171


Originally posted by googajoob7

if warhammer is improved upon it would be the natural place for most of the bored warcraft crowd to go . its pvp is essentially better than wows in my opinion .


Actually, Aion would be the more "natural place" most bored warcraft people would probably go. It's got way better graphics than Warhammer, a much better PvE content in game than Warhammer, HUGE amounts of people already playing so no shortage of PvP adversaries with dying or 'retarded growth' servers, there is actually a "third" faction NPC that can tip battles in favor of the other two, and its a much more polished game that doesn't need a massive overhaul to stop people from playing a crashing endgame.

Even Darkfall would allow way more freedom to PvP than Warhammer does based on it's descriptions.

  User Deleted
1/12/09 2:22:44 PM#172
Originally posted by Mwaji 

Even a  Blind Squirrel finds a nut, Even a Fanboi finds a dingleberry to hang on to in spite of the odds.WoW is already on the way down, maybe not quickly right now, but the terribad expansion they just released can't help. Exept for the most dedicated WoW worshipper most normal players are probably just well bored and would jump at the chance to leave WoW, many have already tried but since AOC and WAR were basically the same game with pvp addons and glitchy as hell it was just a chioce of which boring WoW clone do I want to play.

S'okay, s'okay. /pat :-)

  Kieth75

Novice Member

Joined: 1/09/09
Posts: 51

1/12/09 3:47:37 PM#173
Originally posted by popinjay

 


Originally posted by googajoob7

 

if warhammer is improved upon it would be the natural place for most of the bored warcraft crowd to go . its pvp is essentially better than wows in my opinion .


 

Actually, Aion would be the more "natural place" most bored warcraft people would probably go. It's got way better graphics than Warhammer, a much better PvE content in game than Warhammer, HUGE amounts of people already playing so no shortage of PvP adversaries with dying or 'retarded growth' servers, there is actually a "third" faction NPC that can tip battles in favor of the other two, and its a much more polished game that doesn't need a massive overhaul to stop people from playing a crashing endgame.

Even Darkfall would allow way more freedom to PvP than Warhammer does based on it's descriptions.

It seems like a good place for wow players to go to, it has better graphic. I would like to play there and become god to. I would have large wings and no one could defeat me, I would just hit them and they would die. But I admit I love WAR and would not leave for Aion, maybe just play Aion for a bit.

War is more than just freedom to kill it is how we like the game to be. Plus it is war what is not to like about War?

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 5381

1/12/09 6:30:14 PM#174
Originally posted by gorgona

 I already cancelled my WoW sub, too boring after a month of the same crap in Wotlk...collect 25 badges get the shiny glowing item...do 5 repeatable quests every single day to grind exalted, so you can buy the shiny sword...Grind same instances over and over everyday. Participate in raid in which addons tell you every single move you need to do on boss, tactic wise...

 Not inventive at all...

 

LOL .. you use an addon to spoil the boss fight and you blame blizzard???

WOW has some of the best boss fights out there. If u spoil it youself by using an addon .. there is no one to blame but you.

And btw, on some of the more challenging bosses, addons are great help.

  popinjay

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/07/07
Posts: 6638

Aaron Rodgers>Brett Favre

1/12/09 8:50:41 PM#175


Originally posted by Kieth75

It seems like a good place for wow players to go to, it has better graphic. I would like to play there and become god to. I would have large wings and no one could defeat me, I would just hit them and they would die. But I admit I love WAR and would not leave for Aion, maybe just play Aion for a bit.
War is more than just freedom to kill it is how we like the game to be. Plus it is war what is not to like about War?

Close but...


The other PvP people get wings too. So you will be having air pvp battles, which is exactly what they have now. People fighting in the air without mounts while at the same time, others are fighting PvP on the ground beneath them.

That's considerably more freedom than a game (Warhammer) that has 170 people funnel through doorways into a hallway where 80 opponents are AoE CCing them nonstop, posting blockable standards and stacking them all into a big, heaping pile while telling Level20 players to mob outside spamming spells and junk until the server crashes. YEEEHAAAAAAWWWWW!!!

Yeah, this sure sounds like more freedom than fighting in the air.


  Kieth75

Novice Member

Joined: 1/09/09
Posts: 51

1/12/09 9:02:23 PM#176

I did not say more freedom, what your talking about. I never say anything about freedom. I want freedom I will play WURM  online and build a house and a nice fountain in front porch. You should be critical of AION just like you are of WAR AION already has many problems lots of hacker already. I just play WAR because I like war and play tabletop war and like to kill things and say I play online to. So game has problems so what. Even wow has crazy problems, like crazy berserk Paladin with bubble smak smak dead. But no need to complain GMs will fix the problems we hope so.

  User Deleted
1/13/09 12:18:02 AM#177
Originally posted by Mwaji
Originally posted by Dreamagram
Originally posted by Arthousesig

1. WoW: currently has the largest number of subs although this has already dropped down to around 9 million from a high of 11.x million. Around 6 million of the remaining 9 million subs is from the China/East Asia region

There goes this poster's credibility for all future.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, and by June 2008 there were so many doomsayers around AoC that blind squirrels everywhere predicted their doom. ;-)

 

Even a  Blind Squirrel finds a nut, Even a Fanboi finds a dingleberry to hang on to in spite of the odds. So this is what you offer as your proof that WoW is bad?  Brilliant.  You cannot come up with anything more specific or relevant than a genetic rant.  WoW is already on the way down, maybe not quickly right now, but the terribad expansion they just released can't help. Any proof?  This is what you draw as conclusion from the totally irrelevant rant above?  Can you also predict when the Sun will explode?  Exept for the most dedicated WoW worshipper most normal players are probably just well bored and would jump at the chance to leave WoW, You know everyone who play WoW?  conducted interviews with them and come up with some solid conclusions?  You draw a representative sample? Or you just cook this up out of thin air? many have already tried but since AOC and WAR were basically the same game with pvp addons and glitchy as hell it was just a chioce of which boring WoW clone do I want to play. Many have already tried?  How many? Ah I know, the number is 1, and that is you.  You is your many.  Good.

To Mwaji.  Stop preaching with assertions and empty statements.  I can replace the word WoW in your passage above with the name of any game.  I can replace it with Mcdonalds, with instant noodles, or just about anything, and it reads the same.  ==> bullshit
 

To the OP: you predicted something half the world already knows after beta, AoC was not really great after lvl 20.  Not that you are wrong, but that does not immediately establish you as the god of know all.  As for predicting WoW to lose half a million sub soon, the facts in hand looks unlikely.  Long queues every evening, up to 2 hours.  New servers, top on sales chart forever.  All these are facts not assertion or empty bluffs.  There are no MMOs on earth that can come remotely close to this.  Aion? Its too new to tell.  War and most other games are closing servers and running ghost servers.  Eve is unique and very impressive, but it is steady rather than explosive growth.

The size of WoW is not a proof it is good.  It is a solid evidence that it is popular among some million people, and has been so for a few years.  There is no doubt that there are dissidents, people who cannot stop talking bad about WoW, people who simply left the game quietly, and people who played and yet grumble on web pages.  So what? Every game has some such people.  The size of WoW does solidly refute your claim that WoW is dying.  If 10+ million sub is dying, all other games are already dead.

To hidden1: I appreciate your zeal for DF.  Thank you.  The obnoxious DF community seals it for me.  You can love it, preach it, dream about it every night, talk about it forever on every web.  But it is not going to work for me.  I play to enjoy, and I do not enjoy the company of quite some of the DF preachers.  I appreciate them going to DF, saving me the trouble of adding them to my ignore list in my games.  As for how successful DF will be.  No one knows.  From the way it is going, I wonder if it is going to launch at all.  10 days to launch and nobody knows about subscription policy, free trials, downloading sites.  Hell no one even knows how many classes there are (there are none), what skills there are (are they meaning skills?) what professions or crafting there will be (does gear matter in the game)?  No one knows anything.  This might be a deliberate secret, or maybe I smell something fishy.

To all those who claim they left WoW: ok noted.  There are new people joining and old peeps coming back everyday, replacing those that have gone.  Nothing special.  Some of your babble about beating the game in 1 week.  So?  That is the only aspect of WoW you cared for?  That is not the only aspect of WoW I enjoyed.  I enjoyed some of the story line.  Some of the quests are sheer surprise, notably the quest to save the boss of the Undercity from a betrayal.  Yes you can only do it so many times before it grows old, but if you do not play 24/7, it does take a year or so of casual gaming to get through the bulk of the content, and by then I am one year older.  Who knows what will happen to me, another game? another alt? another expansion?  Until that day happens I am not worried.  Your departure proved nothing to me, means little to me, and will not affect my material enjoyment of the game so far.  Its like me enjoying my favourite dish in a restaurant and somebody outside on the street signalling to me how much he feel fed up with that dish.  So what?  do I need to immediately hate the dish and flee the eating place?

  Dwigo

Novice Member

Joined: 8/28/04
Posts: 40

1/13/09 2:44:12 AM#178

 And you being so bad that you need addons to beat encounters is the games fault?

  SonofSeth

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/17/05
Posts: 1866

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1/13/09 3:00:41 AM#179
Originally posted by Dwigo

 And you being so bad that you need addons to beat encounters is the games fault?

 

It's always the games fault.

  Zeblade

Novice Member

Joined: 1/10/06
Posts: 692

1/13/09 3:01:01 AM#180

Well OP looks like you were WAY off for AoC huh.  The games been growing.. growing slowly but still growing. not dead in any way..

 

hmm and as for WOW..you say "the demise of wow is here" yet they too have been growing yet faster.. a where is this 9million you say?. As of DEC 30 2008 they still had and do have 11.5.. 

And Darkfall and Aion. well most KNOW this .. you figured it out?

What you have done is nothing more than guessing and not very good sorry..

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