Originally posted by Joliust

Well to be fair you don't know any of that 20% are the haters. I mean it's only 124 people.

That's an amazingly small sample of people, polls on the WAR fan forums and the AOC pre-release forums had responses in the 10's of thousands...

Onward to .....   Fail...

Interpreting the numbers further they suggest:

Winners: 

EVE Online, LotR.  Fan base seems pretty secure and not bothered by DF

Losers:

WAR - in a big way since it just launched and they should be worried about a large part of their population looking to move, even if DF fails they need to change something quick.

WoW - not really a loser since 10k subs wont make much of a difference to them but sheer numbers will ride this out.

AoC - Percentage is low but for someone who has been playing since launch I can see AoC becoming a very solid title or failing badly in 2009.  Right now I would err on the side of solid title based on improvements.

New or waiting MMO gamers

2008 is probably going to go down as the year of hype.  It shows in the number of players playing a non MMO game and wanting to join DF.  I imagine the majority are MMO fans who tried the big titles this year and went to PS3, Fallout, CoD because they were so pissed.  Now waiting to come back for a 'promising' title.

Note:

I know surveys like this are not quantitative or scientific but what I find interesting about it is it was on the DF website.  Therefore it shows that there are a lot of people from WoW, WAR and non MMO's actually reading their forums and voting on polls like this.  This in itself says a lot.

Game Players %

World of Warcraft 124 18.18%
EVE Online 40 5.87%
Age of Conan 46 6.74%
Warhammer 137 20.09%
Everquest 2 10 1.47%
Lord of the Rings Online 9 1.32%
Final Fantasy XI 3 0.44%
Other pay-to-play MMO 70 10.26%
Free-to-play MMO 72 10.56%
A non-MMO game 171 25.07%
 

I am sure those games will spiral out of control at that loss of those numbers

Very silly poll. Far many more people who are interested in Darkfall visit the site than people who look at it completely objective. So basically all this polls is how many people who were already interested in Darkfall in varying degrees from somewhat to fanboi will leave their current MMO.

Originally posted by Praetoriani

Very silly poll. Far many more people who are interested in Darkfall visit the site than people who look at it completely objective. So basically all this polls is how many people who were already interested in Darkfall in varying degrees from somewhat to fanboi will leave their current MMO.

Praetoriani that is the whole point... It is people who are interested in Darkfall and looking to leave their 'current' MMO.  Which is listed in the poll. 

I want an option for "I came to the site to see if the game looked like it could be good, but it doesn't, so I'm not going to quit a game to play it".

I also want an option for "I don't quit one game to play another, because the other might not be as good as I hoped".   

And I definitely want an option for "I'll wait until a lot of people have played the game and can say something meaningful about how good it actually is before I decide".

And most importantly, I want an option for "I like to choose several mutually contradictory poll options".

I dream of a game like Darkfall like a lot of people do. I would never quit a game or pay for Darkfall until its been out a while though. There are a lot of reasons to be a skeptic. Most other games that have come out recently have had a lot more going for them and haven't been up to par in most players minds. I really hope that it comes out and is able to grab hold of me like UO did but don't let your hopes override your common sense.

Originally posted by Wagoner

I dream of a game like Darkfall like a lot of people do. I would never quit a game or pay for Darkfall until its been out a while though. There are a lot of reasons to be a skeptic. Most other games that have come out recently have had a lot more going for them and haven't been up to par in most players minds. I really hope that it comes out and is able to grab hold of me like UO did but don't let your hopes override your common sense.

Unfortunately Wagoner you are right.  I say unfortunately because as time goes on I find myself becoming a very pessimistic gamer.  The first time I log in I always expect issues with the billing system.  The first time the game opens up I am expecting graphical glitches and lag.  Then when I head over to crafting I am expecting a 2 click button system that requires no thought process at all.  So yes I am hoping DF holds my attention long term  but as I am in a fun guild in AoC I am happy to wait it out for 1-3 months and see the reviews coming through.  Either way I may buy it and log in out of curiosity because I think most games have enough content for the first month to make them worthwhile.  Only game I didn't log into after 3 weeks is WAR. 

I love exploration so if DF is as big as they say it is then I will have fun running around finding various caves etc.  MMO's these days ignore adventure and go for the linear approach too much. 

Originally posted by chryses

Originally posted by Bruticus_XI

Those same dumbasses who are leaving WAR are the ones who think games are perfect at launch. They're hype junkies and end up disappointing themselves. They should try DF for 3 months too, see how fast they get sick of it, then come back to WAR when it's more polished. That might appease them...

These polls are funny though.

 

I have to agree with you on this one Bruticus.  I always say the test of a good MMO is 3 months and 6 months.  If they don't sort it by 6 months then its RIP like Tabula Rasa. 

As an after thought I was thinking what these numbers would equate to if DF had 100k subs.

                                                                   Gamers leaving if 100k subs are taken up.

World of Warcraft 124 18.18%            = 18,800
EVE Online 40 5.87%                           = 5,870
Age of Conan 46 6.74%                       = 6,740
Warhammer 137 20.09%                     = 20,090
Everquest 2 10 1.47%                           = 1470
Lord of the Rings Online 9 1.32%      = 1320 (very impressive resistance)
Final Fantasy XI 3 0.44%                      = 440
Other pay-to-play MMO 70 10.26%   
Free-to-play MMO 72 10.56%
A non-MMO game 171 25.07%
 

Now this is based on some poll on the DF website but its interesting numbers if the population goes this way.  I still have a lot to do in AoC and in a pretty active guild so if DF sucks at launch I am happy to wait and see what they have at 3 months.

There is absolutely NO RELATION between the people that already follow DFO and what their background is to a % of the current population of that game leaving to play DFO, those numbers mean nothing to come up with those numbers you would have to poll every single game, you sir take pulling numbers out of your ass to a new level.

Those numbers assume that everyone who plays Darkfall will have quit some other game to play it.  That's an enormous mistake.  Assuming that the game isn't sufficiently awful as to scarcely pick up any players except at release, a lot of the people who play it won't do so until they're ready to quit some other game--and would have quit that other game even if Darkfall never existed.

The big problem with this poll is that it doesn't take into account subscription numbers. If all these games had the same number of people playing them it might have some significance. The way its set up, its putting every game regardless of population on equal terms. Percentage of current subscription, thats what needs to be observed. 137 from war, there are single guilds in the game with more people that that. 46 in AoC, thats about the population cap of their instances. Numbers are far too small to be of any use.

WAR has at least 3x the number of subscribers as AoC. So based on this poll AoC is actually losing a greater percentage of its subscribers to darkfall. If I was you I wouldn't actually be trying to convince people these numbers are valid. I understand the OP wanted another opportunity to trash WAR and talk about his liking AoC but I think this one will come back to bite him in the ass :)

Originally posted by Grunties

The big problem with this poll is that it doesn't take into account subscription numbers. If all these games had the same number of people playing them it might have some significance. The way its set up, its putting every game regardless of population on equal terms. Percentage of current subscription, thats what needs to be observed. 137 from war, there are single guilds in the game with more people that that. 46 in AoC, thats about the population cap of their instances. Numbers are far too small to be of any use.

WAR has at least 3x the number of subscribers as AoC. So based on this poll AoC is actually losing a greater percentage of its subscribers to darkfall. If I was you I wouldn't actually be trying to convince people these numbers are valid. I understand the OP wanted another opportunity to trash WAR and talk about his liking AoC but I think this one will come back to bite him in the ass :)

 

Grunties you dumb arse if you read my posts I actually put WAR, WoW and AoC as the biggest losers.  Why would I do this to talk up AoC?  On the flip side I did say the biggest winners are LotR and EVE and I don't play either. (still have 2 EVE subs) 

The poll does actually represent the attitude of gamers out there.  I realise each game has different numbers so the numbers leaving WoW is pretty minimal compared to their overall subs.  The poll on the DF forum actually stated 'WHICH GAME ARE YOU GOING TO LEAVE TO PLAY DF?" So its actually asking people which game they are GOING to leave.  Ironically I am going to leave AoC and EVE to play DF if its any good. 

What the poll does show and you would know this if you worked in banking like I have for 10 freaking years is that its a representation of a population (approximately 1000) and this representation can be overlayed by the overall sub numbers e.g. 100,000 subs.  So its possible to consider these percentages as being an overall number of players coming from other games to play DF.  E.g.  approximately 20,000 from WAR and 4600 from AoC.  And yes 4600 from AoC may have more of an affect than 20,000 from WAR. 

Its a discussion point nothing more and nothing less.  I fail to see how I am bashing WAR but now you mentioned it, yes I think its a POC!  But I still have mates playing the stupid game and I do respect their opinions.

Originally posted by chryses

Below is a poll I found on the Darkfall website asking which MMO's gamers are quitting to play Darkfall.  I found it interesting as I expected more from AoC and EVE.  The two obvious ones are WoW and WAR.  However I think one has to take into account the population difference as well.  e.g. 124 people from WoW is probably less of an issue than 137 leaving WAR.  Even though I am not a fan of WAR its a little worrying that the game has been out for 3 months and its leading the poll (for specific game).  EVE is still staying strong and is pretty resistant against all these major launches.  

By the way don't flame too much because I just cut and pasted the numbers, I didn't run the poll or anything.

 

Game                                      Players    %

World of Warcraft                    124    18.18%
EVE Online                               40    5.87%
Age of Conan                             46    6.74%
Warhammer                             137    20.09%
Everquest 2                                10    1.47%
Lord of the Rings Online          9   1.32%
Final Fantasy XI                         3      0.44%
Other pay-to-play MMO           70    10.26%
Free-to-play MMO                    72    10.56%
A non-MMO game                   171   25.07%

WoW makes up 18% of the poll, but WoW players are 80% or more of the MMORPG market.

That means 20% for Warhammer is HUGE, while 18% for WoW is very, very tiny, if you see what I mean.

Oh God - another post saying essentially that "mega super game X is going to wipe the floor with game Z and have people leaving to play it in droves".  There have been a million of these piles of purely speculative crap lately, frothing about this new game or that, until eventually they all just read as "blah, blah, sheer guesswork, what if, waffle, blah". 

Simple rules - never believe pre-release screenshots or interviews, never believe press releases, never believe clips of "actual gameplay" video.  The stuff they hype often never makes it into the game anyway, or are just the nicest eye-candy they have to put on show to excite the more gullible punters. Never believe beta-testers, either, because they are going through the "this is new and shiny" stage and are too starry-eyed to be realistic.  

It is exactly the same as movie trailers, where even a total turkey of a movie can look fantastic... until you actually go and watch it.

I'll wait a few months and see, before I'll buy a new game these days, to avoid throwing money away on what turns out to be just another pile of bug-infested pretty graphics with the same old cookie-cutter grinding and levelling. 

I quitted CoH and AoC to play DarkFall

well that poll means nothing, also take in count that in 2009 we got 2 major mmo AOC & WAR and none of them manage to keep the players
i hope DF only put 50k cd-keys on market and each account can give 3 friends invite in "account life time"

Originally posted by Bruticus_XI

Those same dumbasses who are leaving WAR are the ones who think games are perfect at launch. They're hype junkies and end up disappointing themselves. They should try DF for 3 months too, see how fast they get sick of it, then come back to WAR when it's more polished. That might appease them...

These polls are funny though.

I keep leaving War and going back to hellgate... the irony, hellgate plays faster-paced and it action twitch-based, than war's point-n-click slow-moving character and animation seem to bore me.  oh yeah the irony being that War is the game that survives while Hellgate (the more fun game to play) goes the way of the dinosaur.

God I hate irony

Question... Is DF twitched-based WASD fast-paced action rpg, or is it more like War, point-n-click, slow character movment/animation?

Originally posted by kedoremos

Originally posted by Emeraq

Darkfall is going to launch?

 

Yes.

No.

Originally posted by Ihmotepp 

WoW makes up 18% of the poll, but WoW players are 80% or more of the MMORPG market.

That means 20% for Warhammer is HUGE, while 18% for WoW is very, very tiny, if you see what I mean.

Aren't you getting that reversed in a way?

20% of 400k = 80k

18% of 11mil = 1.98 mil

80k players leaving (tiny) vrs. 1.98mil leaving (huge).

If the population numbers I used are roughly correct, that means about 25 times more actual people will be leaving WoW than WAR (based on these poll percentages). If the actual WAR population numbers are less than that, the disparity between the two will be even greater. This is precisely why its so absolutely vital that these polls take into account current subscription numbers, because without it, you cant tell how many actual people are leaving one game vrs another, which is what matters.

This is of course assuming the poll itself can be trusted to be a reliable representation - I don't think it is. It was obscure and didn't have enough voters.

Originally posted by hidden1

Originally posted by Bruticus_XI

Those same dumbasses who are leaving WAR are the ones who think games are perfect at launch. They're hype junkies and end up disappointing themselves. They should try DF for 3 months too, see how fast they get sick of it, then come back to WAR when it's more polished. That might appease them...

These polls are funny though.

 

I keep leaving War and going back to hellgate... the irony, hellgate plays faster-paced and it action twitch-based, than war's point-n-click slow-moving character and animation seem to bore me.  oh yeah the irony being that War is the game that survives while Hellgate (the more fun game to play) goes the way of the dinosaur.

God I hate irony

 

Question... Is DF twitched-based WASD fast-paced action rpg, or is it more like War, point-n-click, slow character movment/animation?

From all the interviews and notes on the game its entirely twitch.  No auto aim or auto hit.  Its aim, shoot or move and swing.  So full skill based.