And it will have to do what no recent release has done:

1)  Be polished.

2)  Be well-thought out (i.e., good design, simple and intuitive, make sense, etc...)

3)  Run well on almost any computer.

Vanguard, AOC, WAR, and a host of others have failed to really nail all three conditions.  And until they do, they cannot compete.

But WOW can be outdone (and really sort of deserves to be).

Yes it will be ... by Blizzard's next MMO.

Seriously.  At this point no other new release MMO can offer the same level of polish and content as WoW can.  WoW owns the subscription model thoroughly now.  But Blizzard's next MMO will replace WoW.

I'm not a Blizz fan, but this is reality.  No other MMO can really compete with it, unless they have inveestors willing to invest 200m and be willling to accept a flop as return on invested capital.

Originally posted by Novaseeker

Yes it will be ... by Blizzard's next MMO.

 

Seriously.  At this point no other new release MMO can offer the same level of polish and content as WoW can.  WoW owns the subscription model thoroughly now.  But Blizzard's next MMO will replace WoW.

I'm not a Blizz fan, but this is reality.  No other MMO can really compete with it, unless they have inveestors willing to invest 200m and be willling to accept a flop as return on invested capital.

I highly doubt that will be the model. I think Blizzard is going to make a very different MMO (at least very different settings and possibly game mechanics) and expand the market further. My bet is on a sci-fi theme MMORPG and possible a joint subscription plan between WOW and the new game.

Originally posted by nariusseldon

I highly doubt that will be the model. I think Blizzard is going to make a very different MMO (at least very different settings and possibly game mechanics) and expand the market further. My bet is on a sci-fi theme MMORPG and possible a joint subscription plan between WOW and the new game.

I hope so.  It sounds cool to me, and I appreciate your theory.

It would seem foolish to compete against itself:  a WoW-clone that draws WoW-subs.  SOE competed with itself by launching EQ 2.  It resulted in reduced EQ 1 subs, but also reduced EQ 2 subs since people from EQ 1 were not willing to leave EQ 1 to play EQ 2. 

Why not create a different kind of MMORPG, especially one that appeals to "immersion gamers?"

Who are "immersion gamers"?  We are the silent majority in this industry who are now finally starting to voice our opinions.  We appreciate MMORPGs as something beyond a game, and certainly beyond a product.  We appreciate, and admire, the capital (intellectual, financial, human, et al.) that goes into the creation and development of MMORPGs:  from idea to execution.  We like our content more sophisticated; we prefer having totally unique characters from others (not better, per se, just different); and we want a world to explore.  Travel is important to us, and cheap travel diminishes the world experience.  

We are have some negative sides.  We are serious about gaming; it is hobby, but we think it foul scorn when any developer invades our game with "enhancements."  We can be, unfortunately, unforgiving.  We are also wise enough to boycott EA, recognizing that feeding this beast will only encourage more damage, destruction, and pain in real and virtual terms. 

Immersion gamers are casual gamers, but our tastes are more discerning.

Lesser discerning gamers want a mere game;  we actually want a game world.  Above all else, we desire freedom to choose, options to play, and opportunities to rise/fall. 

blame the players for not having an up to date gaming computer. but vanguard is horribly unoptimized though compare to lord of the rings and age of conan.

I have a dream...

There doesn't need to be a WoW-killer.

Just put out some decent MMOs that actually play different from each other.

Innovation used to be a hallmark in MMORPGs.  But after WoW's spectacular success, everyone tried "To Be Like Mike" but ended up failing in the process.

Originally posted by declaredemer

Originally posted by nariusseldon

I highly doubt that will be the model. I think Blizzard is going to make a very different MMO (at least very different settings and possibly game mechanics) and expand the market further. My bet is on a sci-fi theme MMORPG and possible a joint subscription plan between WOW and the new game.

 

I hope so.  It sounds cool to me, and I appreciate your theory.

 

It would seem foolish to compete against itself:  a WoW-clone that draws WoW-subs.  SOE competed with itself by launching EQ 2.  It resulted in reduced EQ 1 subs, but also reduced EQ 2 subs since people from EQ 1 were not willing to leave EQ 1 to play EQ 2. 

 

Why not create a different kind of MMORPG, especially one that appeals to "immersion gamers?"

 

Who are "immersion gamers"?  We are the silent majority in this industry who are now finally starting to voice our opinions.  We appreciate MMORPGs as something beyond a game, and certainly beyond a product.  We appreciate, and admire, the capital (intellectual, financial, human, et al.) that goes into the creation and development of MMORPGs:  from idea to execution.  We like our content more sophisticated; we prefer having totally unique characters from others (not better, per se, just different); and we want a world to explore.  Travel is important to us, and cheap travel diminishes the world experience.  

 

We are have some negative sides.  We are serious about gaming; it is hobby, but we think it foul scorn when any developer invades our game with "enhancements."  We can be, unfortunately, unforgiving.  We are also wise enough to boycott EA, recognizing that feeding this beast will only encourage more damage, destruction, and pain in real and virtual terms. 

 

Immersion gamers are casual gamers, but our tastes are more discerning.

 

 

Lesser discerning gamers want a mere game;  we actually want a game world.  Above all else, we desire freedom to choose, options to play, and opportunities to rise/fall. 

I like that bit about immersion gamers... describes my play style rather well =)

Originally posted by Swiftblade13

Originally posted by declaredemer

Originally posted by nariusseldon

I highly doubt that will be the model. I think Blizzard is going to make a very different MMO (at least very different settings and possibly game mechanics) and expand the market further. My bet is on a sci-fi theme MMORPG and possible a joint subscription plan between WOW and the new game.

 

I hope so.  It sounds cool to me, and I appreciate your theory.

 

It would seem foolish to compete against itself:  a WoW-clone that draws WoW-subs.  SOE competed with itself by launching EQ 2.  It resulted in reduced EQ 1 subs, but also reduced EQ 2 subs since people from EQ 1 were not willing to leave EQ 1 to play EQ 2. 

 

Why not create a different kind of MMORPG, especially one that appeals to "immersion gamers?"

 

Who are "immersion gamers"?  We are the silent majority in this industry who are now finally starting to voice our opinions.  We appreciate MMORPGs as something beyond a game, and certainly beyond a product.  We appreciate, and admire, the capital (intellectual, financial, human, et al.) that goes into the creation and development of MMORPGs:  from idea to execution.  We like our content more sophisticated; we prefer having totally unique characters from others (not better, per se, just different); and we want a world to explore.  Travel is important to us, and cheap travel diminishes the world experience.  

 

We are have some negative sides.  We are serious about gaming; it is hobby, but we think it foul scorn when any developer invades our game with "enhancements."  We can be, unfortunately, unforgiving.  We are also wise enough to boycott EA, recognizing that feeding this beast will only encourage more damage, destruction, and pain in real and virtual terms. 

 

Immersion gamers are casual gamers, but our tastes are more discerning.

 

 

Lesser discerning gamers want a mere game;  we actually want a game world.  Above all else, we desire freedom to choose, options to play, and opportunities to rise/fall. 

 

I like that bit about immersion gamers... describes my play style rather well =)

I think it describes alot of us who are tired of cookie cutters and uninspired games. I look at some of the F2P MMO's out there and go, WTF would I waste a year of my life to become max level on this when there are 50 other MMO's exactly like it, each slightly better than the next. I want something unique, good, and that I can make an investment with, It may be a hobby, but It is also putting time down, and I dont want my time to go to a crappy game that will either shut down, or is a rip off another.
 

I am intrested to hear what blizzards new MMO will be, I will probably be holding off picking up any new MMOS till after the release of aion,DF,JGE,infinity earth, and till there is more info on the bliz mmo. The only thing that would make me immediatly pick up a new mmo is if some miraculous planetside 2 was annoucned and released suddenly.

I dont want a WOW killer

I would rather have many popular mmos with 1-3 million subs

than some new gigantic mmo commanding 10+ million subs

Well but we haven't gotten even *one* since Blizzard that has 1m subs.  Not even one.

The reason for this is what competitors are up against.  Leaving aside the Asian players, Warcraft has, let's be conservative, say 5m subs in Europe and NA.  That means Blizzard is making revenues of 75m per month from its Europe/NA subscribers, which translates to 900m a year.  And whatever they make from their other plans in Asia is added on top of that, meaning that this game grosses well over a billion USD per year.  Of course there's expenses against that, but just in terms of top line revenue, it's a pretty extreme situation.

All of that is money that can be used to develop, to hire programmers and artists, to blitz advertise like they did for LK, to work on expacs, and to develop other games.  To be honest, noone else is making that kind of money from one product in the whole gaming industry right now.  A company that even has a lavishly funded new release of say 150m just can't compete with what Blizzard can bring to bear.  Blizzard has gotten so big now that it owns the subscription game market pretty much totally, and has created huge barriers to entry for anyone else.

This is why I said that the only WoW killer will be a Blizzard game.  By that I do not mean that Blizzard will intentionally kill off its own game.  What I mean is that among all the developers, simply based on resources, Blizzard has the best chance, by far, of developing and releasing a game that has the broad appeal of Warcraft, ,and in that sense I think Blizzard is the only company that can "kill" WoW in the sense of creating another game that can have anything like a similar level of success.

At this point other games are having trouble passing the 500k mark in subs.  For investors and publishers that have spent 150m making a game, 500k in subs is not cutting it in terms of return on investment.  This is why we're seeing companies left and right looking at microtransactions and other business models -- because noone can really compete with Blizz right now in the subscription space.

well I believe there will come other good games out in the future

but a game that will become as big as wow is now? no...

And the only potential wow killer is blizzards next mmo

Originally posted by Novaseeker

Well but we haven't gotten even *one* since Blizzard that has 1m subs.  Not even one.

Not exactly true, Guildwars is a MMO. I am unsure on how much active players it have but on X-fire it is still almost twice as big as MMO #3. I had for at least 2 years 2 million players, now it is probably something like 800K maybe even a litlle less but it still sold good. Not Wow good off course but still more than most MMOs put together.

Guildwars 2 will probably be huge, the first game lost a lot on that it was instanced everywhere, the second one won't. And if the first game is not enough to prove that the team who made it are good then look on the earlier game they worked on: Diablo, Startcraft, Warcraft 3, Wow (The main programmer of Arenanet was head programmer of Wow for the first 2 years, the other 2 owners work under him there).

Wow will eventually loose players with age, that happens to all games. If another game will take over it's market totally or if we'll see a lot of smaller games instead is impossible to tell.Sure, Blizzards next MMO could be the next big one, but I kinda doubt that anyways because a lot of the creative people have left Blizzard. Last time they made a new game (Sequels not counted) except Wow was in '96. After reading the last interview with Morhaime I would guess that the new MMO will be either "World of Diablo" or "World of starcraft". There is always the chanse that Blizzard did as EA and outgrew themselves.

No, my hope is not only to Arenanet, both Bethesda and Bioware are good smaller companies that made good games in the past and have a lot to offer the genre. Bethesda are probably either working on Fallout online or Elder scrolls online (They are working on something, they hired in a MMO department) and both of those can be really fun and big. A fallout MMO do have the potential to be the next big thing.

Then off course sometimes a really small developer get's a great idea, that could also happen. What was Blizzards biggest game before Diablo? Battlechess?

The only thing I am sure of about the next big MMO is that it will be very far from Wow.

Originally posted by Loke666

Originally posted by Novaseeker

Well but we haven't gotten even *one* since Blizzard that has 1m subs.  Not even one.

Not exactly true, Guildwars is a MMO. I am unsure on how much active players it have but on X-fire it is still almost twice as big as MMO #3. I had for at least 2 years 2 million players, now it is probably something like 800K maybe even a litlle less but it still sold good. Not Wow good off course but still more than most MMOs put together.

Guildwars 2 will probably be huge, the first game lost a lot on that it was instanced everywhere, the second one won't. And if the first game is not enough to prove that the team who made it are good then look on the earlier game they worked on: Diablo, Startcraft, Warcraft 3, Wow (The main programmer of Arenanet was head programmer of Wow for the first 2 years, the other 2 owners work under him there).

Wow will eventually loose players with age, that happens to all games. If another game will take over it's market totally or if we'll see a lot of smaller games instead is impossible to tell.Sure, Blizzards next MMO could be the next big one, but I kinda doubt that anyways because a lot of the creative people have left Blizzard. Last time they made a new game (Sequels not counted) except Wow was in '96. After reading the last interview with Morhaime I would guess that the new MMO will be either "World of Diablo" or "World of starcraft". There is always the chanse that Blizzard did as EA and outgrew themselves.

No, my hope is not only to Arenanet, both Bethesda and Bioware are good smaller companies that made good games in the past and have a lot to offer the genre. Bethesda are probably either working on Fallout online or Elder scrolls online (They are working on something, they hired in a MMO department) and both of those can be really fun and big. A fallout MMO do have the potential to be the next big thing.

Then off course sometimes a really small developer get's a great idea, that could also happen. What was Blizzards biggest game before Diablo? Battlechess?

The only thing I am sure of about the next big MMO is that it will be very far from Wow.

Okay, but Guild Wars is not a subscription-based game.  GW's success using a different business model pretty much only underscores my point: the subscription-based space is extremely hard for new entrants to compete right now due to Blizzard's success.

Eventually some company somewhere will come out with the WoW killer. It's not a matter of if, but rather of when. Technology is advancing and with it game developers have the ability to do more. WoW will become dated both graphiclly and gamewise. What is now a technical nightmare could become less of an issue in 2-3 years as server architecture catches up. Take for example classic EQ. You had zones (BRB zoning). Nowadays most worlds are seamless. This is mostly due to bigger and better technology. In EQ classic there were no such thing as instances(They were put in after a few expansions). Now for many MMO's they are a staple. Again due to advances in server tech. We now have the ability to have well over 20,000 simultaneous connections to a server without it overly lagging. That was near impossible a few years ago (Anyone remember a little game called Wish from about 2 years ago that tried but failed to have such a massive server load as the norm?) The future games will be much more immersive (addicting maybe?) than what is out now.

It's not just on the server side that changes are happening. Again I'll use EQ as an example. I remember trying to do a Nagafan raid. My guild was there along with another and the video lag was absolutely horrific. It literally took those of us even with good vid cards 30 seconds to turn around. Nowadays we have much better vid cards that allow for hundreds of players to be drawn onscreen without undue frame loss.

Throw in added processing power on personal PC's and we as a community are due for the next "breakthrough" game.First probelm is that no game company that want's to make money is willing to take a chance and develop something that is truly groundbreaking.They would rather clone and re-skin something that already works and carve out their little niche in the industry. Second problem is that personal PC's have always lagged behind server tech in regards to being able to fully use existing technology, which limits the scope and freedom of devs. Unless you can afford a top of the line PC for each new game to come out...DX10 has been out for how long? How many games out there fully utilise it though?

Anyone remember the opening lines of the 6 Million Dollar Man show? "We have the technology". Now what we need is a game company that has both the money and the guts to use it to it's fullest. Some have tried and failed. But somewhere,sometime a company will put out the next big one.

I played WoW. I enjoyed it alot, but for me it kinda got stale. But in 10 years it will not be King of the Hill anymore.It will still have many players don't get me wrong, but as with all games of this genre it's time will pass. The games of the future (10+ years) will make WoW look like a MuD. Each successive game that comes out takes a small chunk out of each previous. Sometimes even more than a small chunk (EQ basically ate UO/Meridian). Then between EQ and WoW there were other games that took a chunk out of EQ (DaOC,AO etc). But when WoW came out it ate every competitor. Thats not to say that all previous games are dead. But overall they did suffer a large loss of players.

WoW will be dethroned in time. Make no mistake. But for many of us (myself included) we won't be around to see it. We will just read about it in passing and take a minute to reminisce about the good ole days. No that new game isn't for us,rather it's for the new blood that is just getting into the MMO gaming scene.

Originally posted by Sithos

Eventually some company somewhere will come out with the WoW killer. It's not a matter of if, but rather of when. Technology is advancing and with it game developers have the ability to do more. WoW will become dated both graphiclly and gamewise. What is now a technical nightmare could become less of an issue in 2-3 years as server architecture catches up.

if and when that happens - that will be sad day for me

why do we need ONE mmo to rule them all in subscriptions?

The next only wow killer is the next bliz mmo the market is truly theres and theres alone

Originally posted by pencilrick

And it will have to do what no recent release has done:

1)  Be polished.

2)  Be well-thought out (i.e., good design, simple and intuitive, make sense, etc...)

3)  Run well on almost any computer.

Vanguard, AOC, WAR, and a host of others have failed to really nail all three conditions.  And until they do, they cannot compete.

But WOW can be outdone (and really sort of deserves to be).

If Blizzard can make the next big MMO to follow WoW it will be an amazing accomplishment.

So far, no one has done it twice.

UO, one of the first ever MMORPGs. Garriot tries again with Tabula Rasa, huge failure.

UO tries to release a sequel to the franchise, UO2, and it never makes it out of the box.

EQ, is one of the first ever 3d MMORPGs. The sequel of the franchise is released, EQ2, and is only a modest success.

EQ's lead developer, McQuaid tries again with Vanguard. A swing and a miss.

If Blizzard can make the mega success WoW, and then follow with another huge hit, it will be the first time a successful MMORPG developer has struck gold twice.

 Yes, Blizzard has the money, but do they have the talent to catch lightening in a bottle twice? Garriott had 100 million to spend on Tabula Rasa, and it was a POS.

Originally posted by declaredemer

Originally posted by nariusseldon

I highly doubt that will be the model. I think Blizzard is going to make a very different MMO (at least very different settings and possibly game mechanics) and expand the market further. My bet is on a sci-fi theme MMORPG and possible a joint subscription plan between WOW and the new game.

 

I hope so.  It sounds cool to me, and I appreciate your theory.

 

It would seem foolish to compete against itself:  a WoW-clone that draws WoW-subs.  SOE competed with itself by launching EQ 2.  It resulted in reduced EQ 1 subs, but also reduced EQ 2 subs since people from EQ 1 were not willing to leave EQ 1 to play EQ 2. 

 

Why not create a different kind of MMORPG, especially one that appeals to "immersion gamers?"

 

Who are "immersion gamers"?  We are the silent majority in this industry who are now finally starting to voice our opinions.  We appreciate MMORPGs as something beyond a game, and certainly beyond a product.  We appreciate, and admire, the capital (intellectual, financial, human, et al.) that goes into the creation and development of MMORPGs:  from idea to execution.  We like our content more sophisticated; we prefer having totally unique characters from others (not better, per se, just different); and we want a world to explore.  Travel is important to us, and cheap travel diminishes the world experience.  

 

We are have some negative sides.  We are serious about gaming; it is hobby, but we think it foul scorn when any developer invades our game with "enhancements."  We can be, unfortunately, unforgiving.  We are also wise enough to boycott EA, recognizing that feeding this beast will only encourage more damage, destruction, and pain in real and virtual terms. 

 

Immersion gamers are casual gamers, but our tastes are more discerning.

 

 

Lesser discerning gamers want a mere game;  we actually want a game world.  Above all else, we desire freedom to choose, options to play, and opportunities to rise/fall. 

You really don't know what you are talking about when it comes to EQ2.

It was nothing like the first EQ game when it launched so to not compeate with it.

But the fans of the first game wanted the first EQ game with better graphics and were very dissapointed with EQ2.

I dunno really why there are so many garbage game developers around.

Maybe it was in style to get this kind of education?

Too many hacks and too little talent.

Thats the sum of it.

Originally posted by pencilrick

And it will have to do what no recent release has done:

1)  Be polished.

2)  Be well-thought out (i.e., good design, simple and intuitive, make sense, etc...)

3)  Run well on almost any computer.

Vanguard, AOC, WAR, and a host of others have failed to really nail all three conditions.  And until they do, they cannot compete.

But WOW can be outdone (and really sort of deserves to be).

LotRO did all this and I wouldn't call it a WoW killer :P 

And if an MMO comes around that kills WoW, then I will probably NOT want to play it, just like I don't want to play WoW. using WoW logic, it'd have to be simpler, easier, and even MORE dumbed down than WoW is already (if thats posible) to beat it. No thanks. I'll take quality over mass market kiddie games.