Yeah... Litigator, the more you talk, the less you seem to be rational and educated

I'm sorry, I might be wrong, if I am then I'm sorry but you are either a really bad lawyer or not very smart. You seem to think the world is all pink and sunshine and everything someone says MUST be true, no matter what. That deception doesn't exist, that wordings can't be manipulated... Yet, your supposed to be a lawyer, go figure :)

Even according to the accountant wife of someone here, the Q2 report clearly means that its for june 30 that 415k means. She also says that it's a very sketchy document. (any other accountant to back that up?)

(First post)

http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/194751/page/3

I'm not saying it's impossible that the 415k sub number is for August 14 but it is HIGHLY unlikely. The odds are 10 to 1 that these are the numbers for June 30 according to everything we know about the state of this game.

Does it really matter what the numbers are?

Lit is right about it being illegal to manipulate numbers for shareholders.   If we have 415K as a solid number for June 30 (active subscriptions with the 30 day trial and retention).. That's a 385k drop from boxes sold (800k? Right).  Now, presswise, if half the peopel that bought your game in the first 2 months, say it sucked..  That's not going to help out.

Some, the numbers get released.  415k retention as of June 30th (per there report.  this number HAS TO BE CORRECT), now, given the rate of decline...

I'd say there are around 200k subs. 

With 40k active players (those who aren't simply paying)

Anyone want to by a gaming company? I got one for cheap!

I'm just curious why the Q2 report which details projections of the next financial quarter would be updated with Aug14th data for a presentation (doing so would shows things are worse according to litigator).  It makes no sense why they would take 1.5 months to "approve" a presentation about a report from june 30th and then update it with figures from that very same day.

This is just my GUESS, but to me it reads like the presentation is speaking in June30 terms only.

415,000 x subscription fee of $15  = 6,225,000

Multiply that time 3 months = 18,675,000

I know that the actual average subscription price is something totally different after factoring in all the various differeny currancies, exchange rates, etc.  

On the other hand, back in June Box sales were still strong so the "prediction" might have been a much better ratio of new players joining versus players cancelling. 

My numbers are just off the cuff, but it looks believable that in June 30 terms they could very well make those types of predictions. 

I could be wrong as this isn't my strong suit by any means, but it looks to make sense doesn't it?

Does it actually say customers?  Would not customers include free trials?

www.massively.com/2008/08/15/funcom-quarterly-report-reveals-age-of-conan-performance/

Why would anyone interpret this as being 415k on Aug 14th rather than June 30th?

Ignoring the obvious comment that a Q2 report pretty much by definition normally only includes information up to June 30th, the notes at the end of the interim report also clearly state that Aug 14th was merely the date on which the report was approved not the time frame it referred to.

1 Corporate information
Funcom N.V. is a limited company registered in The Netherlands, and the shares are publicly traded on the Oslo Stock exchange under the ticker “FUNCOM”. The principle activity of the company is to develop, market and carry on business in computer games in the broadest sense. The unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements of the Group for the six months ended 30 June 2008 were approved for issue by the supervisory board on 14 August 2008.

It doesn't matter therefore that the Summary page contains the comment "So far the game has sold through over 800.000 copies and has currently more than 415.000 customers.", as the reason for it being dated Aug 14th was solely because that was when it was approved by the supervisory board & the term 'currently' was used in the context of the report's time-frame, i.e. Q2 ending June 30th.

Even if there were any doubt as to whether 415k was an accurate estimate for Aug 14th, basic probability implies that the game is unlikely to be gaining new players at 'exactly' the same rate as it is losing old ones. In the unlikely event that the joining/leaving rates were very similar the Aug 14th figures would still most likely differ by a few thousand either way rather than being exactly the same.

It seems likely that the real figures for Aug 14th would have been considerably lower, but we just seem to be back in the same old scenario where no-one knows the real subscription levels apart from Funcom & everything else is just speculation. 

The fact that Funcom are being so secretive implies that the real figures must be fairly depressing though. After all, the company that made the infamous "Steak & Wine" comment would hardly be likely to keep quiet if they had anything to boast about.

Just my opinion.

Originally posted by Litigator_AB

And for the umpteenth time, AoC is in better shape if they had 415k subscribers June 30 instead of now.  I know you guys don't get it.  It's cool. 

Lit

I seriously don't get it.

Finance is really not my field of expertise.

From my stunted understanding, does it have something to do with projections/forecasts? /shrug

I'm not trying to call you out or anything, I would just like a little bit more insight on how this works so I can form an informed opinion on this subject.

Myrdek, you assume that all of the 285k who left bought the game prior to May 26th and that none of those who bought it on May 27th, 28th and 29th left the game. Yet these three days equal 30% of the timeframe we are talking about. Given a linear cancellation that would mean roughly 85k left from May 27th to May 29th and we would be talking about a retention rate of 50% instead of 28%.

Please note that I am not arguing about the state of the game. I am just pointing to a flaw in your math and in my opinion you are juggeling with numbers you have no control over.

You guys can argue back and forth till your blue in the face. Your not gonna change anyones mind.

There is 1 absolute fact tho concerning Funcom. The company lost over 4 points in a single day yesterday and is at the lowest its been in 52 months.

That gentlemen, speaks volumes of what the real investers think of Funcom and its financial viability.

Originally posted by Splixxer

Myrdek, you assume that all of the 285k who left bought the game prior to May 26th and that none of those who bought it on May 27th, 28th and 29th left the game. Yet these three days equal 30% of the timeframe we are talking about. Given a linear cancellation that would mean roughly 85k left from May 27th to May 29th and we would be talking about a retention rate of 50% instead of 28%.

Please note that I am not arguing about the state of the game. I am just pointing to a flaw in your math and in my opinion you are juggeling with numbers you have no control over.

30% of the timeframe?  its 10% of the timeframe.

285k out of 400k = 28% retention

285k out of 440k = 35% retention

so your right about this, but you also have to take into account a 50% drop in sale during the 2nd week. (all games do that)

285k out of 420k = 32% retention

that doesn't really change the results though since I already assumed that 100% of the fanboys would stay when it's probably a lot less than that :)

Originally posted by Random_mage

Lit is right about it being illegal to manipulate numbers for shareholders.  

Have you been reading any reports about the Enron-esque behavior that a lot of major banks have been up to? It appears that they can manipulate the story and facts quite a bit.

I think from all this data, it is safe to assume that the AoC Bandwagon is missing a few wheels, and is also on fire.

Time to get off the fiery, dying bandwagon. It's not a BAD game (as of now), but with such bad rep and negative atmosphere, it will not recover, no matter how much they improve it.

AoC is a rather expensive project. It takes some hefty bags of cash and many hours of effort to add content. It requires a larger subscriber base to continue adding quality content. And they've already started working on another MMO?

Originally posted by Myrdek

Originally posted by Splixxer

Myrdek, you assume that all of the 285k who left bought the game prior to May 26th and that none of those who bought it on May 27th, 28th and 29th left the game. Yet these three days equal 30% of the timeframe we are talking about. Given a linear cancellation that would mean roughly 85k left from May 27th to May 29th and we would be talking about a retention rate of 50% instead of 28%.

Please note that I am not arguing about the state of the game. I am just pointing to a flaw in your math and in my opinion you are juggeling with numbers you have no control over.

 

30% of the timeframe?  its 10% of the timeframe.

285k out of 400k = 28% retention

285k out of 440k = 35% retention

so your right about this, but you also have to take into account a 50% drop in sale during the 2nd week. (all games do that)

285k out of 420k = 32% retention

 

that doesn't really change the results though since I already assumed that 100% of the fanboys would stay when it's probably a lot less than that :)

You lost me there; i thought the timeframe we were talking about were May 20th (launch) to May 29th, since you would probably still be registered as a subscriber on June 30th if you had your acount activated May 30th or later. That would make the timeframe 10 days and the period you neglected to consider 30% (id est 3 days). As stated before some of the 285k "leavers" are bound to have left the game from May 27th to May 29th. Therefore it is this number, 285k, that you have to reduce in your calculations.

Do you have any support for the 50% drop in sales other than saying "all games do that"?

As you can see it is possible to produce all kinds of numbers, so i dont really see any of them being particularly reliable or relevant.

Originally posted by Splixxer

Originally posted by Myrdek

30% of the timeframe?  its 10% of the timeframe.

285k out of 400k = 28% retention

285k out of 440k = 35% retention

so your right about this, but you also have to take into account a 50% drop in sale during the 2nd week. (all games do that)

285k out of 420k = 32% retention

 

that doesn't really change the results though since I already assumed that 100% of the fanboys would stay when it's probably a lot less than that :)

 

You lost me there; i thought the timeframe we were talking about were May 20th (launch) to May 29th, since you would probably still be registered as a subscriber on June 30th if you had your acount activated May 30th or later. That would make the timeframe 10 days and the period you neglected to consider 30% (id est 3 days). As stated before some of the 285k "leavers" are bound to have left the game from May 27th to May 29th. Therefore it is this number, 285k, that you have to reduce in your calculations.

Do you have any support for the 50% drop in sales other than saying "all games do that"?

As you can see it is possible to produce all kinds of numbers, so i dont really see any of them being particularly reliable or relevant.

May 20th to 26th doesn't matter because it simply means that those people will have quit before the others, it doesn't impact the numbers. May 27-28-29 on the other hand are not counted because Funcom didn't provide sales number for that timeframe, only up to may 26th. I'm not very good at explaining it, if someone have a simpler way to then be my guest  :)

As for the 50%, I made a big mistake. Just noticed it now, I calculated it on the 10% when I should have done it on the total sales for the week/2. 50% would mean 75k sales, not 40k. But still, that one is just a guess and your right that it can't be trusted. That's why I didn't take it into account in my initial post, its impossible to know how many boxes they sold during those 3 days.

Let's do a chart if you want to be more precise...

400k sale in the first 7 days

700k sale in the first 40 days

Damnit... I made a chart but I don't even have paint on my computer, no idea why, can't finish it

img296.imageshack.us/img296/7499/chartvb7.jpg

The first line is the first week, you can easily assume where it would be on the 10th day. On a linear progression it gives us around 425k, on a decreasing one (like it should be) its hard to tell.

I guess your right, there is too little data to make a good estimation. Funcom are too good at hiding everything :)

Hey splixxer, strawman much?

Whay is certain is that sub levels by end of june or august 14th are not really going to present the right picture.

There will be far too many people that bought the game and havent come out of their first months free subs, people on 3 month plans and people that forgot to cancel etc etc to get a decent picture of where subs are heading.

Now given the stock price if the news / expectations in funcom we especially positive you would have expected them to break down their figures more comprehensively and it would have been a piece of cake to do.

They could easily have shown when accounts were created and when the 30 days free were up plus numbers relating to how many people took out 3 month sub plans.

MMOG players know what to look for and petty rivaly aside, there is no doubt that AoC has lost its appeal to a very significant number of people and there are plenty of things on the horizon that indicate that AoC will face very stiff competition over the next few months from new releases to boot.

The share price is your best indicator atm - invesors are not dumb.