This is an analysis of Funcoms Subscription numbers based on only the facts we have been given


May 20       - Launch

May 26       - 400k Players
http://www.mmorpg.com/newsroom.cfm/read/10818/400000PlayersEnterAgeofConan.html

June 30      - 700k Account created (includes those who quit)
http://www.mmorpg.com/newsroom.cfm/read/11083/Funcomboasts700000Accounts.html

June 30      - 415k Subscribers (Q2 Report)
http://www.funcom.com/funcom/frontend/files/CONTENT/Funcom_Q208_report.pdf

Total boxes sold = 800k (can't find any date for this)

Formulas

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Deduction:  Retention of 28% after the free month

700k Accounts - 415k sub = 285k            400k - 285k = 115k
Only 115 000 people of the first 400 000 stayed past the free month (some days unaccounted for)

Second Weeks sales are impossible to know but they could range from 100k-200k. This means the 3 days I was too lazy to account for before = an additional 75k box sales (approx.)

115k + 75k = 190k out of 475k = Retention of 40% for first month

Edit : I was too lazy the first time but, the 3 missing days (may 27-28-29) account for an additional box sales and sub for the first month. I didn't think they would account for so much

This makes the retention rate higher and means I need to change the numbers. Because I can't know how many stayed past the second month it's too inacurate to find the number of subs.

The real question is how many of those 415k subs are players who cancelled last month and got fun-billed before the freeze date. Refer to the sub/billing/fraud threads if you don't know what I'm talking about.

The Q2 report clearly states Customers, not Subscribers. This includes people who purchased the game late and were still on their free month up to June 30th.

I calculated it as such Varking

Originally posted by Myrdek

I calculated it as such Varking

Ahh, I was pointing out that you wrote subscribers next to June 30th.

Your entire hypothesis is predicated on the idea that Funcom only had 415,000 subscriptions on June 30th.  That is a clear misreading of the financial news, the Q2 financial report, and the Q2 financial presentation. 

Additionally your subscription numbers of 199k for July, 187k for August and presumably less for September mean AoC will only have ~550,000 subscription months put towards its Q3 revenue.  This is approximately 7.7 million USD...or half of the lowest estimate Funcom produced in its guidance for Q3. 

They would get sued for such inaccurate guidance.  415k is obviously for August 14. 

But beyond that, the rest of your math is so screwy and inaccurate that even if June 30 was correct it wouldn't matter.   You are not a good subscription analyst.

Lit

Originally posted by Litigator_AB

Your entire hypothesis is predicated on the idea that Funcom only had 415,000 subscriptions on June 30th.  That is a clear misreading of the financial news, the Q2 financial report, and the Q2 financial presentation. 

Additionally your subscription numbers of 199k for July, 187k for August and presumably less for September mean AoC will only have ~550,000 subscription months put towards its Q3 revenue.  This is approximately 7.7 million USD...or half of the lowest estimate Funcom produced in its guidance for Q3. 

They would get sued for such inaccurate guidance.  415k is obviously for August 14. 

But beyond that, the rest of your math is so screwy and inaccurate that even if June 30 was correct it wouldn't matter.   You are not a good subscription analyst.

Lit

 

Read the other thread titled 415 000 Customers for August 14th. The Financial report clearly states 415k CUSTOMERS FOR JUNE 30, 2008.

Litigator : says the guy who makes simplistic logical mistakes in his own post. Your so focused on your finance numbers that you completly let logic out the window

My numbers fit with every reports we had about how the game is doing, xfire, the guy who scanned each server to see how many people were online etc. etc.

I don't know anything about finances, your right about that, but I do know numbers and these fit, yours don't.

If August 14th was the 415k sub it would mean that Age of Conan had the highest population retaining of any MMO ever released

and we all know that's far from the truth :)

Varking - I include free months in Subscribers since Funcom did too

Here is my post in the other thread, which backs the OP here that this is for June 30th and not yesterdays date:

A couple of things here as others have stated:

1) Firstly, these numbers come from AT THE LATEST, June 30th, 2008.

2) They state CUSTOMERS, not SUBSCRIBERS.

3) This is still a win-win at the moment for numbers, but you can clearly see the "haters" as you all like to label them, winning. What I mean is that even if it were 415,000 subscribers it looks great on paper and internet forums. Most MMORPGs do not reach these numbers. But, this also comes from the fact that they sold over 800,000 boxes since launch day, right? This means from the fact the numbers were June 30th that not even two full months later around 385k people quit the game and chose not to retain or pay a monthly fee for this. 48% of the box sales are gone already. This is almost HALF! This does not look into how many left from July or now August but it is a fairly resonable trend to believe that subscriptions for this game are still on the decline, not the incline.

4) Right in this report it says the average playtime per individual is lower than expected. Most games when launched during the first few months are at their highest playtime during their first year, or up until an expansion comes out. FunCom tries to explain their playtime per individual is down because the average age of a subscriber is apparently 29 years old.

5) FunComs current stock is at a three year low.

6) FunCom is creating a localized version of Age of Conan for Russia and Poland. As well as having talks with the Asian market to get their game over there, all the while working on the 360 version. If you think things are getting fixed soon, for the most part, don't hold your breath. Things don't happen smooth and fast when you spread your development team on two more localized versions of AoC, a 360 version, an Asian version, an AoC expansion, and resources for another MMO, The Secret World.

7) They claim in this report they launched without any major technical issues. Things like the memory leak, crash to desktop, running at 9 fps on a great machine, sieges being unplayable at first, no DX10 among other issues are not considered major. So for future companies you can have your end game be broken and unplayable, and in your Financial report, you can state nothing major was wrong.

8) This is not for todays date. If the OP would actually read the report instead of scouting for numbers it reads at the bottom:

The unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements of the Group for the six months ended 30 June 2008 were approved for issue by the supervisory board on 14 August 2008.

Then, right below that it reads:

This means that these interim financial statements do not include all information and disclosures required in annual financial statements but only selected significant information.

This means that this report was done on the results up to June 30th, it was okayed to be shown on August 14th. The second part means that information is missing and this was selected information by FunCom that they felt was alright to show. This isn't an unbiased report, they left things out.

Originally posted by Litigator_AB  

They would get sued for such inaccurate guidance.  415k is obviously for August 14. 

This one made me laugh, this company:

 - promises a number of features for release which clearly werent there, spins off saying they werent meant for release when clearly it has been stated and links posted of how it was indeed promised for release.

-  has worse customer support I have ever had in any game.

- Intenionally spinned off the open beta so players could only really test out the polished part of the game (Tortage),  even giving the players armors sets to make them think the armors at high level were gonna be unique when it has been proven it wasnt.

 - BAN people from the forums and game without aparent reason.

- Charge people for months of gameplay after they have either canceled their accounts or have been banned.

After all this, thats your fanboi excuse for them saying the 415k they announced is from august 14? "they would be SUED", HAHAHA a really good one.

Reasoning leads me to think otherwise im afraid.

Originally posted by Varking_SaS

Originally posted by Litigator_AB

Your entire hypothesis is predicated on the idea that Funcom only had 415,000 subscriptions on June 30th.  That is a clear misreading of the financial news, the Q2 financial report, and the Q2 financial presentation. 

Additionally your subscription numbers of 199k for July, 187k for August and presumably less for September mean AoC will only have ~550,000 subscription months put towards its Q3 revenue.  This is approximately 7.7 million USD...or half of the lowest estimate Funcom produced in its guidance for Q3. 

They would get sued for such inaccurate guidance.  415k is obviously for August 14. 

But beyond that, the rest of your math is so screwy and inaccurate that even if June 30 was correct it wouldn't matter.   You are not a good subscription analyst.

Lit

 

Read the other thread titled 415 000 Customers for August 14th. The Financial report clearly states 415k CUSTOMERS FOR JUNE 30, 2008.

I hate to point out the obvious, but only the financial figures are bound to the June 30, 2008 date.  The rest of the report can and will always include current and forward looking information.   Financial numbers take time to compile and need to be audited and that is why there is a delay.  It is sad that I need to quote parts of the release, but:

a) "Revenue in the third quarter of 2008 (Q308) is
expected to be between TUSD 16.000 and TUSD
20.000. The dominating revenue stream will be
subscription revenues for the Age of Conan game."

(future tense)

b) "The game currently has more than
415.000 customers (players who are either
subscribers or are playing in the first 30 days
included in the sale of the box)."

(present tense)

c) "In July, Plutolife, a subsidiary of Funcom N.V., was
sold to Jumbuck Entertainment Ltd. Funcom had a
74,98% stake in Plutolife AS. The acquisition
consists of an initial consideration of TUSD 3.700 in
cash payments phased over the next 12 months"

(past tense)

Additionally: Funcom financial presentation of Q2:

d) "Over 800.000 copies sold through to customers."
e) "415.000 customers per August 14"

f) In a financial news report: http://e24.no/boers-og-finans/article2595624.ece

" Funcom-sjef Trond Arne Aas vil likevel ha noen mening om 415.000 aktive spillere - av over 800.000 solgte spill - er bra eller dårlig."

Lit

8) This is not for todays date. If the OP would actually read the report instead of scouting for numbers it reads at the bottom:

The unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements of the Group for the six months ended 30 June 2008 were approved for issue by the supervisory board on 14 August 2008.

This is the only salient portion of your post.  Quite simply, the financial statements are separate from the rest of the Q2 financial report.  They are the only parts bound and time stamped to the June 30 date.   Refer to the post above for additional evidence that contradicts your position.

It is also clear from the rest of your vitriolic post that you have a deeply rooted grudge against Funcom.  Perhaps you wish the game turned out better or something.  However, the bias shows.  Your inability to recruit the contradictory evidence into your formulation shows your lack of objectivity. 

I on the other hand have money at stake.  I have a vested interest in objectivity and sound analysis. 

Lit

Give it a rest Litigator, we have all seen how Funcom runs it's marketing and we are all too smart to buy into what you are selling here.   Those numbers are pretty clearly from June 30th and they match the numbers most predicted back then.

Originally posted by Ender4

Give it a rest Litigator, we have all seen how Funcom runs it's marketing and we are all too smart to buy into what you are selling here.   Those numbers are pretty clearly from June 30th and they match the numbers most predicted back then.

Can I quote you on this when in 3 months when Funcom brings in 15 million dollars of revenue and will have had to have had 900,000 subscription months to account for the revenue?  Please?

Not to mention the fact that 285,000 people didn't cancel between June 17th and June 30th.  In case you haven't played the game, it was still quite popular at that point.  The casuals hadn't quit, the hardcore guilds (like i was in) were finishing our inviolate and evade sets and having a grand old time. 

Not to mention the official Funcom presentation says specifically August 14th.

Not to mention x2 the official report discusses the current and future situation of AoC.  How that one specific part of information suddenly gets attached to the accompanying financial statements is beyond me.

Not to mention x3 a Norwegian financial newsite has a DIRECT QUOTE from the CEO discussing current subscribers from today.

You realize of course that the current 415,000 customers includes current box units that have not been billed.  Scratch 10-40k from 415k.

It includes buddy keys.  Scratch more.

It includes everyone who's billing cycle doesn't come up until August 15 -August 30 but who have cancelled anywhere from July 15th to August 14th (probably a good 100,000 people). 

Do you realize that from June 30th (let's say they had 650,000 subscribers then) to drop to whatever the real subscriber number is (let's say 350k given 65 initial month and buddy key players) that AoC has lost up to 300,000 subscribers in the last THREE WEEKS.  That's 10-15,000 players a day.  That is why the forums are toxic right now.  Couple that with those with accounts that don't play and you have the dead servers while still technically having 415k customers at the moment.  It also supports the revenue guidance Funcom listed. 

Sometimes I hate to say this kind of stuff because it sounds arrogant, but I absolutely love being right.

Lit

"You realize of course that the current 415,000 customers includes current box units that have not been billed.  Scratch 10-40k from 415k."

How are you so certain of this, do you have any inside info the rest of the world doesnt have?

We have seen their PR guy lie in front of the whole community regarding the features for release as far as I know their CEO is lying too.

Why should i take what your saying as fact and not believe on the OP?

You seem to want people to take what you write as undeniable fact but in the end its not worth more than what the OP posted.

Or you love to think your right, just because you want to be really hard doesnt make you right.

You guys do realize that Litigator is  not defending Funcom but articulating the serious state the company is in

He is making money from  the share price going down and hes happy

He's no Fanboi

I do not need to be certain of it.  What it means is that my position is the only one that makes sense barring outright financial fraud by Funcom. 

When you start grasping at conspiracy theories to defend your position you generally lose.

Edit:  I realize a lot of you really hate Funcom.  Although I have no interest in taking sides, I wish the Failcom crowd here would realize that given Funcom's Q3 revenue guidance 415,000 August 14 subscribers is MUCH worse for Funcom than 415,000 June 30 subscribers.  Not to mention (and you would hope more importantly) it is the actual state of affairs.

Lit

I just find it comical that you dismissed straight away the possibility that those numbers are only really another spin off from Funcom, after all the company has done to its customer's, the PR stunts, with plain lies to the community.

Listen, I still do not know what all this numbers and debate crap is about.

AoC is a bad game, backed by an even worse company, built on lies.

AoC doesn't have 400k+ subscriptions.

You can't find me an AoC player on planet earth right now that will come in here and say "yep I think they have over 400k paying subscribers".

Reason you can't find one is because anyone that insane is in Arkham Asylum with the Joker, Scarecrow, and the Riddler.

This game is sinking like the Titanic after being hit by an Iceberg, Rammed with a US Aircraft Carrier and a Missile being shot through it's bulkhead.

We don't need financial reports to push the game one way or another. It is what is is....

BAD

But again you are listing faulty numbers based on Funcom spin.  Nothing you posted in that entire post comes from any concrete numbers.

http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/2111241#2111241

That is an old thread from right after June 30th.  By that point many players were already jumping ship and as I said in my post I firmly believed they had between 350k-500k accounts and the 415k number fits in there quite nicely.   On June 30th they announced 700k accounts created, not subscriptions but total accounts created of which 285k apparently did not play past the freetime.  The servers were already bleeding players at an alarming rate by mid June with census showing a 15-20% drop per week during primetime and xfire showed the same thing.  Right now I wouldn't be surprised if they are under 250K accounts total.