Originally posted by JonnyBigBoss

Originally posted by Myrdek

Originally posted by Bent

I personally  expect 250k+ box sales within a month of release and that number building to 500k+ within six months.  It really depends on how stable the launch is.  If launch is very stable and playable I could see 500K units sold within 3 months and bridging 750k within a year.

 

Your being funny right? AoC had 3 times that during the first month and they only had 1/2 the beta applications that Warhammer has. 250k box sale is a joke :)

My guess is 1 mil box sale during first month.

 

Like many others I also believe War is being released in september to not have to face off directly against wotlk. It would be a marketing disaster if they did, most people would rather stick with what they know than try something new. They already said in an interview that they could have gone to EA and asked for more funds and they would have given it to them.

 

They sold out of over 150,000 COLLECTOR'S EDITIONS. I'd be shocked if Warhammer wasn't at over 1 million boxes after 1 month.

i thought it was only 60k collectors? 50k us and 10k EU o.O

I don't think anyone here thinks it will kill WoW.

But as a long time Wow player and a long time beta member of WAR, WAR is a breath of fresh air.  PvP wise it blows WoW out of the water.  In all honesty in the fantasy genre it blows any game out of the water to date.  Other than lacking full loot like UO, best PvP game yet.

And to the OP, the capital cities were not taken out to push the game out sooner. They were taken out because it makes sense.  There is NO way that there will be enough people fighting on all fronts to take 3 citites at a time.

It won't take WoW's place, WoW is simply too big and too fashionable (an MMO to becoming mainstream would've been unthinkable before WoW). I'd say WoW has one more expansion pack left after WotLK. Its population is already decreasing (WoTLK will give it a 6 month surge) and each new expansion pack makes all the older content obsolete which will make players less likely to stick with it.

However second place is still extremely lucrative and it's looking at the moment that WAR will easily take that. There's a lot of hype around it and unlike AoC, it's not going to have a huge portion of its playerbase leave after a couple of weeks.

Originally posted by PureChaos

Originally posted by Solude

Originally posted by Myrdek

Originally posted by Bent

I personally  expect 250k+ box sales within a month of release and that number building to 500k+ within six months.  It really depends on how stable the launch is.  If launch is very stable and playable I could see 500K units sold within 3 months and bridging 750k within a year.

 

Your being funny right? AoC had 3 times that during the first month and they only had 1/2 the beta applications that Warhammer has. 250k box sale is a joke :)

My guess is 1 mil box sale during first month.

 

Like many others I also believe War is being released in september to not have to face off directly against wotlk. It would be a marketing disaster if they did, most people would rather stick with what they know than try something new. They already said in an interview that they could have gone to EA and asked for more funds and they would have given it to them.

 

AoC had both larger beta sign ups and beta invites than WAR.

I expect 400K sales, 200K subs retained.  Mythic has one month to get ready for launch.  They talk about being feature complete but once NDA is dropped we can talk more about what did and did not make the feature list.

dude those numbers are way to low.

First off what your saying is tha half the people who signed up for beta will not play.

Further you suspect 1/4th of beta players will still play.

This game has the most hype hands don, not even generated by them, but by the players,

Im honestly suspecting 1mil within a month, retain 800,000 and if good, will go up from there.

Signing for a beta to test the game = free

Buying a game you never played = 50$/€

I think it's a stupid move to make war with WOW because you just ain't gonna win and you'll come off worse with less subscribers than if you just wait until all the WOW people are bored of WoTLK.

Just a pre play prediction.

600 K sales in 14 days, with extra 200/300K follow up in the second month.

Then WotLK launches. Everyone will try it and compare.

If WAR is good : 700 K subs after 3 months. 800K as of 2009 and staying there.

If it doesn't keep the interest of PvP players: 250 K as of 2009 (LOTRO,  EVE range)

The only real victim will be Conan: certainly falling out of the top 5 even under 100K.

---

I'll tell you more within 5 days (>Beta). After playing for 3 days I'll know if it will walk like Paul talks.

Never was wrong in the past 5 years.

Who's to say in 18 months time Blizzard don't reveal Starcraft universe? Don't forget, every month you delay a game, you're paying a dev team and for server equiptment. It's expensive not having paid subscribers.

One thing EA are good at is marketing, the date chosen for release would've been well thought out, balancing 'readiness' with sales potential. They're betting that WAR is more of a spoiler for WOTLK than the other way around by the looks of it.

Originally posted by Myrdek

Originally posted by Bent

I personally  expect 250k+ box sales within a month of release and that number building to 500k+ within six months.  It really depends on how stable the launch is.  If launch is very stable and playable I could see 500K units sold within 3 months and bridging 750k within a year.

Your being funny right? AoC had 3 times that during the first month and they only had 1/2 the beta applications that Warhammer has. 250k box sale is a joke :)

Yes but Funcom have Erling Ellingsen. The guy can sell ice to an eskimo.

Just to go over a few things that other poeple are looking at.

WAR wont be a WoW killer.... damn that beast is WAY TOOOO  BIG to kill.

Last i heard 12 mill users? ZOMG!

but also, since DAoC came out the MMO industry is ALOT bigger now then it was then.  All those far east players, Russians/Chinese/Koreans etc probablyy never saw DAoC, until it was already on the decline.

Dont have to kill a beast to beat it. if WAR can rob say 5% of the market for the first 6 months and then grow, it would be enough for it to maybe get the wow numbers in the end. 5% of wows customers is 600k and thats not counting allllllll the other mmos.

If WAR is half as good as they make out, it shouldnt have any problems getting into its first mill customers.

maybe this is wishful thinking on my behalf, but id like to think that all Warhammer fans who are playing other mmos, are more likely to try it out, and hopefully find themselves at home straight away.

How could the release of WOTLK not be a consideration? The 2nd expansion to the biggest MMO in history with almost 11,000,000 subs? They would have been fools to ignore it.

I think there was some pressure from the paymasters at EA. They want the 3rd and 4th quarter figures propping up.

Originally posted by Ellister

Just to go over a few things that other poeple are looking at.

WAR wont be a WoW killer.... damn that beast is WAY TOOOO  BIG to kill.

Last i heard 12 mill users? ZOMG!

but also, since DAoC came out the MMO industry is ALOT bigger now then it was then.  All those far east players, Russians/Chinese/Koreans etc probablyy never saw DAoC, until it was already on the decline.

Dont have to kill a beast to beat it. if WAR can rob say 5% of the market for the first 6 months and then grow, it would be enough for it to maybe get the wow numbers in the end. 5% of wows customers is 600k and thats not counting allllllll the other mmos.

If WAR is half as good as they make out, it shouldnt have any problems getting into its first mill customers.

maybe this is wishful thinking on my behalf, but id like to think that all Warhammer fans who are playing other mmos, are more likely to try it out, and hopefully find themselves at home straight away.

Ellister,

last i checked in wow, it was full of players aged 20 and under. That is why they have high subscribers. but also, do you honestly think 10mill accounts are played by REAL gamers and not Chinese botting / Gold farming accounts?

If you go into any newbie starting zone right now, and speak to the players leveling, these are NOT new players playing for the first time, but level 70s that are BORED rerolling new characters, sometimes even on new servers.

WoWs addon will be the same ole story that TBC came out. New content, that most hard core players will have finished by XMAS time and got bored.

You say wow cant die, probably it is. But if i was to say black was really white and white was green would you believe me?

Reason for this, Do you actually believe Blizzard when they say they have 10million PLAYERS and not Gold farmers / Botters ??

Gameplay wise, comparing an expansion and comparing a new game almost makes no sense.  The people who aren't playing WoW will probably try WAR, just like they did with AoC.  Expect somewhere between 500K and 1 million boxes to be sold, if EA pumps some money into advertising.

The 10 million WoW players are going to continue playing WoW, expansion or not.  WAR will need to use word of mouth to pull those players away from WoW, like WoW, DAoC and CoH did to Everquest and EQ did to UO.

The competition would in theory be on the retailer's floors.  You know WoW is going to have their giant stands and shelves covered with WotLK boxes, so it would behoove EA to get into the stores, before the shops start giving Blizzard too much space. 

Originally posted by Bent

It makes sense to me.  Mythic drops classes and capitols and is thus able to get WAR shipped a number of months early, avoiding a WAR and wotlk release near the same time.

Smartest thing they could of done.  They will get tired WoW players and the AoC drops.  As oppose to posting a Dec 2008 release date and having blizz offer a open wotlk, or SCII open beta at the same time, if not a released product.

Im am not so sure that it is the smartest thing. AoC lost many players on the fact that it released to early. If and I say if the game feels unfinnished, then they will lose more than they would have gined on an early release. If on the other hand the game feels finnished (enough content, not so many buggs) then they will win but it is a risky gamble.

Well see on release day. Anyways it will get intresting but Im just hoping it isnt EA that forces Mythics hand. Hopefully GW would stop them from doing that.

Originally posted by jessian

 

last i checked in wow, it was full of players aged 20 and under. That is why they have high subscribers. but also, do you honestly think 10mill accounts are played by REAL gamers and not Chinese botting / Gold farming accounts?

??? You did a survey ??? the last time you "checked". How do you do that? Interested.

Gold farming accounts? you think they even have a million accounts?

If you go into any newbie starting zone right now, and speak to the players leveling, these are NOT new players playing for the first time, but level 70s that are BORED rerolling new characters, sometimes even on new servers.

??? So why the basic Wow boxes are still  in the top 5 of PC sales after 4 years. Meaning outselling all published combined MMO's by a wide margin. All old players who just buy the basic box for the fun of it.

Better have a look at of the PC games we all play.

www.xfire.com

Then you'll realize just how big this thing is in the western world (as I hardly think Chinese use xfire). ... and try finding another subscription game in that top 10... you won't ....

And... these are poll like samples not some 1-man "checking".

Originally posted by Bent

It makes sense to me.  Mythic drops classes and capitols and is thus able to get WAR shipped a number of months early, avoiding a WAR and wotlk release near the same time.

Smartest thing they could of done.  They will get tired WoW players and the AoC drops.  As oppose to posting a Dec 2008 release date and having blizz offer a open wotlk, or SCII open beta at the same time, if not a released product.

I've stated this several times. It is sad to me they cut content just to get the game out before WotLK. It is the reason that I will not be purchasing the game when it comes out next month.

Originally posted by AlienShirt

Originally posted by Bent

It makes sense to me.  Mythic drops classes and capitols and is thus able to get WAR shipped a number of months early, avoiding a WAR and wotlk release near the same time.

Smartest thing they could of done.  They will get tired WoW players and the AoC drops.  As oppose to posting a Dec 2008 release date and having blizz offer a open wotlk, or SCII open beta at the same time, if not a released product.

 

I've stated this several times. It is sad to me they cut content just to get the game out before WotLK. It is the reason that I will not be purchasing the game when it comes out next month.

Your wrong, but hey, your entitled to your opinion.

Anyway, best thing Mythic could have done is actually wait for 2-3 months AFTER wotlk is released. Let people buy WoW's expansion and see that its just the same old shit AGAIN. Give them a month or two of being bored. It wont take long to hit 80. After that release WAR. Right now your going to have people just wait till they see if WOTLK is the mirical expansion for bordom just to find out its not, its just more grinding for gear and reputation. Then they will flock to WAR in mass. This is of course assuming Mythic is more interested in initial sales.

By releasing WAR before WOTLK word of mouth will spread about how good WAR is. People will still buy WOTLK but in the end will leave for another game be it WAR or anything else.

So, WAR releasing early to beat WOTLK to the market? Nah. Releasing cause EA said they have to? Yup.

I wrealy like this do u actualy think that WOTLK will be something so new and revolutionary that will change gaming history itz just another "more pve oriented xpansion"=grind fest like u dont hawe something to grind about already (reputation,gear etc) imho I would wrealy like that WOTLK will be released before WAR  so that all of  that huge comunity c that it`s just  another grind fest  and not  to mention that for that grind fest u got  to be nicely geared cause not one good raknin guild wont recruit u to raid and xprience that end game grinding .Blizz stole 3/4 of theyre races,classes etc from Warhammer lore so most  sadly part is that Warhammer will fight his own lore vs rip off from Blizz but hey thaz just my opinion

Anyone that thinks they are putting the game out just to beat WotLK is dillusional.  It might be a factor but it isn't the reason.

They stated the fall date when? April? May? Blizzard hadn't even had a visible time table for WotLK. It could have come out in January. They entire reason they don't want to push back again is because they believe the game to be just say 90% complete and removing the non-essential extras will produce a 100% done game that falls into their goals for an RvR game. Whether they are right or not remains to be seen.

As for cutting content. Maybe you should go look up what Blizzard has done in the past. For actual launch they cut what? Maraudon, Dire Maul, PvP system and probably more that I can't remember. For Burning Crusade the expansion that took 2 years they cut Black temple and hyjal for release. Probably a lot more there as well but I wasn't playing when BC came out. Not to mention that they almost always cut testing on major instances(MC, BWL, AQ40, Naxx, Gruul, SC, ZG. etc) they all had unkillable bosses at some point on live servers because Blizzard doesn't test the content. So trying to rag on Mythic for cutting content when blizzard does the exact same things is just rose colored glasses.

Originally posted by AlienShirt

I've stated this several times. It is sad to me they cut content just to get the game out before WotLK. It is the reason that I will not be purchasing the game when it comes out next month.

They did not cut content.

They cut four classes that were poorly balanced and four cities that weren't going to be "living cities" like the two that remain anyway -- plus all their quests were rolled up into one city as well. No net content loss.

As for sub numbers:

I'm not sure we can go by Age of Conan's sales, but I do expect comparable box numbers.

Then Lich King will come out, and those who were trying WAR from WoW will migrate back to try it. If WAR's that good, they'll get bored of Lich King within a couple of months and migrate right back.

But yeah, we're dealing with a segment of the population that's just looking for an excuse to leave WoW right now -- which sort of makes me laugh, people feeling like they're "stuck" in WoW until something else comes along. Other than the same 2-3 weeks of AoC that many of you put in and a brief foray into VG, I've been retired from MMOs since I quit FFXI over a year ago.

Saved me plenty of money. ;)

I think you are not looking at the whole picture.  I'm not saying that the WoW expansion isn't part of the picture, but you have to realize that WAR is not releasing early, the orginal "soft" release date was spring 2008.  They decided it would be released later to avoid collision with AoC and to provide some more time for polish and class balancing.  Part of that polish and class balancing ended up being the reduction of capturable cities to 2 and removing 4 classes that were having problems drawing players in beta.  This gave them the ability to focus on providing an optimal experience for launch.  Since the "Fall" release was also a soft date, and the removal of the problematic content expedited the remaining polish work, the were able to announce a September 18 date. 

I applaud the fact that rather than putting 4 unpopular/broken classes into the game just to make an artificially even amount of classes per race, they did the right thing and opted for fun and balance.  All of this contributes to them saying to themselves that they are happy with the current state of the game and are ready to begin the final "stress testing" phase of the game development.  Due to Mythic being the first company (and still one of the few) to have a stable MMORPG launch, I have confidence that it is very likely to go smoothly.  The question remaining for players to decide for themselves is whether this is the type of MMORPG they enjoy playing.  It is certainly not a "WoW Killer", but that doesn't mean it won't be great fun for the people who enjoy this play style.  If people are wanting a "WoW Killer" game, they had better wait for WoW 2 (aka more of the same with an upgraded engine).

I hope this helps.