General Discussion

Aoc will lose the race for the top Mmo for 2008 and even in 2009, in subscribers.

Ofc it has been sold out at release date already but high pc requirements will cause the loss of some subscribers.

Many of you talk about warhammer. Yes it seems a good game till now. but i dont see any1 of you talking about Aion.

I have searched a lot about all games and have seen that Aion is very close to the gameplay to WoW.

But it has awesome grafix. If the pc requirements will not be too high, imo Aion will get a lot more subscibers than AoC and War.

Its just that most players have made almost no searching for Aion and think it will be just another Asian grinding game that will only sell in the Asian market.

With a bit more publishing Aion will hit place 2 behind WoW in the first months of 2009.

And maybe get more subscribers than Wow in the mid 2009.

Wow will have only one chance too keep the first place and that is WotLK.

If it is exactly the same thing as TBC ( just +10levels, new continent, and some new features), i dont think people will stay at WoW cause they already a lot frustrated and bored.

This is what i guess will happen too and thats why i believe that Aion will get about  4 millions subs, WoW will lose a lot and go to 5 millions and AoC and warhammer will get a lot of subscribers at their start but after some months they wont be able to go over 1 million subs.

Ofc these are only my predictions... Everything will change if  WotLK will be very refreshing with a lot more features and go WoW to another level making it a lot better , cause then ALL games will be doomed to less than 1million subs and Wow will get even more , hitting the top at about 15 million subs

Only a new MMO from Blizzard will win this battle if WotKL is awesome and not a disappointment like TBC was ( well, after some months, cause at start it was fun ).

But personally i dont think WotLK  will make the big difference .....

To sum my number and prediction i make 2 categories.

1) If  WotLK is awesome WoW will hit about 15 million subs and there will be no competition with over a million subs.

2) WotLK  make difference to the game as much as TBC did:

       Aion will have about 5 millions subs

       WoW  will have about 5 millions subs as well

       Warhammer will have about  1million  subs ( ofc there will be more subs at start of the game cause   players enthusiasm)

       AoC will have about 750k subs as well ( ofc there will be more subs at start of the game cause players enthusiasm)

       and LotR and Even wont have more than 500k each.

Thse are my predictions but i really think i can be very different depending on which game will have it release first to get  the huge numbers (400 - 700k) of frustrated and bored WoW players.

The main WoW crowd is not very active in the universe of MMOs and is usually not looking for a new game to play. AoC will be noticed and disregarded by the most of the players; they got WoW, why should they need to acquire AoC when it's just the same thing?

Originally posted by Trowar

 

Originally posted by Gameloading

 

There has NEVER been a single western MMORPg that has EVER reached 1 million subscribers outside of WoW, pre or post WoW. Even Everquest didn't make it past half a million subscribers. I see absolutely no reason why WAR or AOC will be any different, especialy considering both will be competing with the WoW expansion.

 

 

The answer is obvious, because WoW did.

And WAR and AoC will breach 1 million easily because WoW is bleeding players. The realm I am playing on ( until I have upgraded my computer and bought AoC ) has lost LOTS of players, every single raid guild both on horde and alliance side are screaming for players and have to cancel most 25 man raids.  There is a dip in people playing every summer, but it has never been at this magnitude and I have no idea how many have left for AoC, but in 3 Horde guild I know fairly well including the one I am in, about 20 players left so far, and those players have alts.

And who knows how really big the mmorpg market really  is? Maybe 15 million potential players, but most likely more.

First is the "Because WoW did it". Because "WoW" did it didn't do an awfull lot for Auto Assault, Tabula Rasa, Lord of the Rings Online, Dungeons & Dragons Online and many, many more. These aren't small fry either, D&DO and Lotro are arguably the biggest fantasy IP's around. We have not seen a single western MMO hit 500k subscribers after the release of WoW, and that's been nearly 4 years now.

We don't know how much WoW has lost players, nor do we know if those players are really moving to other MMORPG's.

Yeah, listen, though people might say WoW is losing people, all games are losing people. They also gain a bit.

However, just because people notice that certain "Raid Guilds" are no longer there and that perhaps their "gamer" friends are leaving doesn't mean that there are an equal or greater amount of casual players filling their shoes.

WoW is a gaming social "happening". It has surpassed being a game. It's got good marketing, it's polished, you don't have to lose your life  in it (and that is one clue why it is so popular... sorry, but most normal people aren't part of raiding guilds or spend hours on end every day playing video games) you can participate in a variety of activities.

Heck, I even keep a WoW account when I want a very brief gaming activity.

Conan will appeal to a lot of people but it will still be a niche gamet as it requires higher computer specs and has very specific content that many "regular people' will find tasteless or offensive.

You aren't going to be finding a lot of families hanging out in Conan. WoW allows this as it has wider appeal.

But as others have said, it doesn't matter. AoC brings a nice change to the MMO landscape.

However, people MUST give up this WoW must fall mentality as it serves no purpose. Andy they definitely need to give up on this idea that any game that they "really, really like" is going to topple it. I doubt it will stay around "forever" but it will have a long life.

Whatever game in the future that will surpass wow will have easy computer requirements, will not take all your life, will be easy for people to get into, will allow social interaction among friends and family and will reach out to people who are not gamers.

Wow will be biggest for another year easily. It will probably not hold in the long run, Bioware is at least comparable with Blizzard in competence and they are putting out a MMO (maybe star wars, maybe Baldurs gate online, doesnt matter, those guys are really good).

Then there is Guildwars 2 which have 3 of Blizzard old top programmers on it and there will be no subscription fee for that.

 And there is AOC, WAR, Spellborn, Aion, World of darkness online and more...

4 years is a long time for a computer game even with uppgrades, I do believe it will start falling once it hit 5 years because there is always a limit how much you can change a game, new games come out with new graphical engines, computers get better and also someone is bound to figure out new ideas on how game will work.

And don't forget that there is rumours that Blizzard themselves spent 1 year already on a new MMO project.

Wow is a really great game but time will kill all great game sooner or later. And the fact that some Wow players saying that the servers are fewr populated is BTW propably not cause less player but the same player are also doing something else and spend less time playing. That is not the same thing as quiting even though some of them might quit when it's time for next subscription.

I do believe that Conan will hit 1,5 million in december but I also beleive that most of these players will be european, not americans.

Originally posted by Gameloading

 

Originally posted by Trowar

 

Originally posted by Gameloading

 

There has NEVER been a single western MMORPg that has EVER reached 1 million subscribers outside of WoW, pre or post WoW. Even Everquest didn't make it past half a million subscribers. I see absolutely no reason why WAR or AOC will be any different, especialy considering both will be competing with the WoW expansion.

 

 

The answer is obvious, because WoW did.

And WAR and AoC will breach 1 million easily because WoW is bleeding players. The realm I am playing on ( until I have upgraded my computer and bought AoC ) has lost LOTS of players, every single raid guild both on horde and alliance side are screaming for players and have to cancel most 25 man raids.  There is a dip in people playing every summer, but it has never been at this magnitude and I have no idea how many have left for AoC, but in 3 Horde guild I know fairly well including the one I am in, about 20 players left so far, and those players have alts.

And who knows how really big the mmorpg market really  is? Maybe 15 million potential players, but most likely more.

There are a few things wrong with your statements.

 

First is the "Because WoW did it". Because "WoW" did it didn't do an awfull lot for Auto Assault, Tabula Rasa, Lord of the Rings Online, Dungeons & Dragons Online and many, many more. These aren't small fry either, D&DO and Lotro are arguably the biggest fantasy IP's around. We have not seen a single western MMO hit 500k subscribers after the release of WoW, and that's been nearly 4 years now.

We don't know how much WoW has lost players, nor do we know if those players are really moving to other MMORPG's.

I do not usually agree with Gameloading on most issues, but on this particular issue I agree.

No game has reach even the 500k steady mark since WoW, and AoC is not going to do it either.

I do think Aion will but mainly due to its asian roots as I stated. The asian market is 10 times what the US and EU are in population. AION will breach 1 million for sure. WAR will double AoC's numbers but I am not sure even it will break a million. I see AoC only ending up with an average 350k when the dust settles. So WAR should hold about a 700 - 800k rate just shy of a million.

I do think despite what the "leaving wow players" have you to believe they WILL be back for WotLK. They can deny it all they want, but youll see WoW's numbers jump again on release, if even for only a few months while all the players that left come back to see what it offers. They all bitch and complain about wow going the wrong direction, but they sure as hell will jump on the expansion when it releases, because you will find hardly any that will dispute that wow is a good game. They want it to succeed.

Yeah we may see 1 game break a million, but AoC and WAR.... nope.

Originally posted by FFandDB

 Many of you talk about warhammer. Yes it seems a good game till now. but i dont see any1 of you talking about Aion.

I have searched a lot about all games and have seen that Aion is very close to the gameplay to WoW.

But it has awesome grafix. If the pc requirements will not be too high, imo Aion will get a lot more subscibers than AoC and War.

Its just that most players have made almost no searching for Aion and think it will be just another Asian grinding game that will only sell in the Asian market.

With a bit more publishing Aion will hit place 2 behind WoW in the first months of 2009.

And maybe get more subscribers than Wow in the mid 2009..

 

I am sure that Aion will attract lots of players however it certainly looks like an Asian mmorpg. I doubt that it will be big in Europe or USA because it isn´t classic fantasy that we relates to. It is more in line the kind of anime fantasy one can see Lineage II and Final Fantasy IX + the upcoming Requiem. Games that aren´t really competing with WoW outside Asia.

And having WoW-like gameplay will not help much because us conservative Western people have a bit hard to relate to anime-like characters with wings . Easier to relate to barbarians and such, thanks to our litterature and rpgs like Dungeons and Dragons. 

Aions safest bet is to have the same business model Guild Wars though, also a NCsoft game. In worst case scenario it will be another Tabula Rasa, a NCsoft game as well. It might be because of the latter why Aion isn´t considered a serious contender.