Originally posted by Vrazule

I'll accept the accuracy of SirBruce over any random rabid poster from this site.  Ballpark figures are good enough for me, accuracy to a Tee is only important to accountants.  I like the chart because it shows me which companies are on the up and up when they talk about their own business versus those who lie out their asses, like Turbine and SOE.  Both have a history not only about misleading subscription numbers, but also in shady and unprofessional practices against their customers, mistreatment of customers on bulletin boards and so forth.  All of these are reasons why I won't play their games, they just don't deserve my money.  I also factor in their style of development and typical end product, which I have never like from both of those companies either.

Newsflash to you : All companies put their own spin on things to make the marketing sound better.  At least Turbine wasn't LYING when they said they had 4 million characters made in their Middle Earth.

Blizzard's "10 million" stickers on their boxes aren't exactly the truth. There is NOT 10 million SUBSCRIBED WoW players. 6 Million of the 10 do NOT PAY MONTHLY FEES. Only 4.5 million pay subscription fees for WoW and that's in North America and Europe.

And Bruce's chart should show that. If the chart was meant to be truly accurate for a "Subscriber MMO" chart.

I think his estimate though is accurate that WoW will hit 12 million.  What the heck- Blizzard will ship the next expansion for free to the Asian Internet cafes again ...like they did with Burning Crusade. Only the US and Europe have to PAY for the Game  boxes and PAY the monthly game fees.

And the " your preciousss LOTRO" comment  by Sir Bruce was very unprofessional and rude.

The Internet cafe players in China are still paying to play the game.  Only those active in the last 30 days are counted, so I have no problem with equating them with monthly subscribers.  True, they don't have to buy the game box, but otherwise it's no different from someone who plays WoW or EQ with a game time card.

Bruce

Originally posted by SirBruce

Well, the letter grade is only on the data reported.  So yes, in some cases, I have great certainty what the subscriber numbers were for a MMOG 3 years ago, but I can't tell you what it is today.  This isn't a problem generally but it can distort current market share data by a small amount.  With WoW and NCSoft's games dominating most everything else, though, we're really only talking about a few tenths of a percent.

Also, a lot of those games you mention that haven't been updated in a while are closed or are no-longer subscription based so are now 0 (Earth & Beyond, MCO, The Sims Online, ShadowBane, etc.)

Bruce

 

Originally posted by LiquidWolf

 

This is a good point, I have found NOTHING else on the web that does the same thing. You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used. 

I've always found that looking at server lists and population status (low/medium/high) is a good way to tell how well something is doing.

Granted, you need a general understandin of what "HIGH/FULL" means, but it does help.

I'll judge the a-hole critics here as people who just want to prove someone wrong, and can't let it go. Much like Darwa's initial post: He rates MMORPG so low but still comes by here to make a post.

Wow!  And this generation is supposed to bring about social change based on logic that is setting a precedent over previous generations.

You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?  If pharmaceutical companies approached research like this I sure wouldn't even want to take over the counter medicine.

For the sake of argument, I would like to ask Sir Bruce what level of education he has concerning business, statistics, and methods of research?  This is not an attack, it is merely a question because honestly I do not know.  But I think it is important in order to be taken legitimately as an analyst you at least have some background in data gathering, statistical modeling, and business research.  This is one of those times education is important.

EDIT:  NM I found your WiKi entry and while you have a degree, which is good, I see that you are NOT trained in statistics, business analysis, business research, or any other business for that matter.  Physics, computer science, and philosophy (btw I am impressed), are not business or statistical methods concerning business, although you should be aware of scientific methods of study based on your physics trainings.  And based on that you should be aware of why there are criticisms with your analysis of anonymous data sources and the lack of verifiable date.  Just because you say it is does not mean the rest of the educated community will accept that it is.

Originally posted by DragonOak

 

Originally posted by LiquidWolf

 

This is a good point, I have found NOTHING else on the web that does the same thing. You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used. 

I've always found that looking at server lists and population status (low/medium/high) is a good way to tell how well something is doing.

Granted, you need a general understandin of what "HIGH/FULL" means, but it does help.

I'll judge the a-hole critics here as people who just want to prove someone wrong, and can't let it go. Much like Darwa's initial post: He rates MMORPG so low but still comes by here to make a post.

 

Wow!  And this generation is supposed to bring about social change based on logic that is setting a precedent over previous generations.

You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?  If pharmaceutical companies approached research like this I sure wouldn't even want to take over the counter medicine.

For the sake of argument, I would like to ask Sir Bruce what level of education he has concerning business, statistics, and methods of research?  This is not an attack, it is merely a question because honestly I do not know.  But I think it is important in order to be taken legitimately as an analyst you at least have some background in data gathering, statistical modeling, and business research.  This is one of those times education is important.

I just find it funny that people say we are picking on him.  If you can't stand the heat... stay out of the kitchen comes to mind.  The only personal attacks seem to be coming from Bruce and his followers for another thing.  Heh... not that we're really dealing with facts though... so no biggie. 

Originally posted by DragonOak

 

Originally posted by LiquidWolf

 

This is a good point, I have found NOTHING else on the web that does the same thing. You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used. 

I've always found that looking at server lists and population status (low/medium/high) is a good way to tell how well something is doing.

Granted, you need a general understandin of what "HIGH/FULL" means, but it does help.

I'll judge the a-hole critics here as people who just want to prove someone wrong, and can't let it go. Much like Darwa's initial post: He rates MMORPG so low but still comes by here to make a post.

 

Wow!  And this generation is supposed to bring about social change based on logic that is setting a precedent over previous generations.

You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?  If pharmaceutical companies approached research like this I sure wouldn't even want to take over the counter medicine.

For the sake of argument, I would like to ask Sir Bruce what level of education he has concerning business, statistics, and methods of research?  This is not an attack, it is merely a question because honestly I do not know.  But I think it is important in order to be taken legitimately as an analyst you at least have some background in data gathering, statistical modeling, and business research.  This is one of those times education is important.

Damn, I got quoted. 

So here is the problem with your response. You are assuming that the viewer has to care about the accuracy of his data and graphs. Scratch that, I care, but my accuracy requirements are much different than yours it sounds like.  

It is accurate enough for my needs (Which, to be honest, are not many). It succeeds.

As far as I am concerned it doesn't directly lie outright, but many of the posts mock it and bash the author, who put together a pretty good site in my opinion. In his spare time nonetheless. Come on, the whole site has "reader beware" or "my opinion" all over it.

But, what were you pointing out in quoting my post?  I'm presuming:

"You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used."

But can't quite be certain since you basically used my response as fodder for a snide remark. I find that petty and unhelpful. Regardless, I can see a point where I should have stated "It will be watched" rather than "I will watch it." 

"Our species eat the wounded ones" So go ahead and chew on that bone I gave you.

"You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?"

If this was the case, i'm fairly certain multiple MMO companies would have contact Sir Bruce to either pull the site down, correct it, or they would have released statements of their own to combat such dangerous info. Particularly from the press, hits, or even this topic. From what it sounds like, many companies are actually trying to promote his efforts. Perhaps they feel he is inflating things to their benefit. But in the end it is reader beware, this is the internet.

Your post (particularly at "Wow! And this generation") suggests you are older than me or possibly my superior, but you do not demonstrate it this time. Particularly with your jab at me.

Either his data sources, or his lack of a resume (since you asked for his credentials) doesn't fit your standards. Problem is, i'm fairly certain this is one of those times where it is your problem, not his.

No, I don't have a degree in such things, nor is one required in order to do industry analysis and reporting.  Bill Gates didn't have a degree in engineering or business, either.

Bruce

Originally posted by SirBruce

No, I don't have a degree in such things, nor is one required in order to do industry analysis and reporting.  Bill Gates didn't have a degree in engineering or business, either.

Bruce

 

Thanks for clarifying Bruce.  And yes... there are quite a few that did quite well without a degree.  Who knows... perhaps our criticisms will inspire you to greatness as well. 

From this site: www.forbes.com/2003/07/28/cx_dd_0728mondaymatch.html

Richest self-made Americans
without a college degree:

William H. Gates III
Harvard University, dropout
Net worth: $43 billion
Source: Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people )

Paul Allen
Washington State University, dropout
Net worth: $21 billion
Source: Microsoft; Charter Communications (nasdaq: CHTR - news - people )

Larry Ellison
University of Illinois, dropout
Net worth: $15.2 billion
Oracle (nasdaq: ORCL - news - people )

Michael Dell
University of Texas Austin, dropout
Net worth: $11.2 billion
Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people )

Originally posted by SirBruce

No, I don't have a degree in such things, nor is one required in order to do industry analysis and reporting.  Bill Gates didn't have a degree in engineering or business, either.

Bruce

 

No, but to sound like an old folk, you should know better.  You do have a degree, and you should know that if you are going to use unsubstantiated data, unverifiable data, and "unrevealed" sources your methods will be questioned by those that know better.

I start to question your need to hide your sources, and I wonder if it is all about the following rather than the data.  While a degree may NOT be REQUIRED, a degree does validate the person doing the analysis.

But really I don't know why I am here, because secretly I hope Turbine's LoTRO numbers stay low but profitable.  I mean your biased statements alone make me glad you are busy in other places.  Because this is the best MMO community I have found in the 7+ MMO's I have played.  I do not want the fad crowd to find the game and screw it up for a rather pleasant community.  So for me it is self serving for you to use biased and unsubstantiated numbers in this case. 

Thanks!!

Originally posted by LiquidWolf

 

Damn, I got quoted. 

So here is the problem with your response. You are assuming that the viewer has to care about the accuracy of his data and graphs. Scratch that, I care, but my accuracy requirements are much different than yours it sounds like.  

It is accurate enough for my needs (Which, to be honest, are not many). It succeeds.

Tell that to your dentist the next time he does your brain surgury, he is a scientist after all.

As far as I am concerned it doesn't directly lie outright, but many of the posts mock it and bash the author, who put together a pretty good site in my opinion. In his spare time nonetheless. Come on, the whole site has "reader beware" or "my opinion" all over it.

But, what were you pointing out in quoting my post?  I'm presuming:

"You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used."

But can't quite be certain since you basically used my response as fodder for a snide remark. I find that petty and unhelpful. Regardless, I can see a point where I should have stated "It will be watched" rather than "I will watch it." 

"Our species eat the wounded ones" So go ahead and chew on that bone I gave you.

"You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?"

If this was the case, i'm fairly certain multiple MMO companies would have contact Sir Bruce to either pull the site down, correct it, or they would have released statements of their own to combat such dangerous info. Particularly from the press, hits, or even this topic. From what it sounds like, many companies are actually trying to promote his efforts. Perhaps they feel he is inflating things to their benefit. But in the end it is reader beware, this is the internet.

Your post (particularly at "Wow! And this generation") suggests you are older than me or possibly my superior, but you do not demonstrate it this time. Particularly with your jab at me.

Either his data sources, or his lack of a resume (since you asked for his credentials) doesn't fit your standards. Problem is, i'm fairly certain this is one of those times where it is your problem, not his.

Long post to defend unverified data.  So the ends justify the means? Be very careful, that kind of logic supports genocide, racism, and a whole bunch of other negative behavior traits.

F.Y.I.  You might want to update your page located at: www.mmogchart.com/2008/02/11/npd-to-start-tracking-mmog-subscriptions/

Here is the quote: "they don’t include sales from major retailers like Wal-Mart"   Heh... seems like I got chastised for saying the exact same thing not too long ago.   

Originally posted by SirBruce

 As to NPD's numbers, you do not seem to know that large retailers are now in fact counted (they resolved their problem with Wal-Mart), so while deficiencies still remain, their numbers remain more accurate than before. 

Bruce

See... look how much good we're going for you.  Helping you fix out-dated data and inconsistencies.  Sometimes it's good to have some healthy criticisms from time to time instead of just blind followers. 

Originally posted by SirBruce

The Internet cafe players in China are still paying to play the game.  Only those active in the last 30 days are counted, so I have no problem with equating them with monthly subscribers.  True, they don't have to buy the game box, but otherwise it's no different from someone who plays WoW or EQ with a game time card.

Bruce

 

Yes- the Asian people pay....drum roll please....4  pennies to log into WoW at the Internet Cafe's!

Sorry- I don't equate 4 cents to a game subscription.

Originally posted by dragonace

F.Y.I.  You might want to update your page located at: www.mmogchart.com/2008/02/11/npd-to-start-tracking-mmog-subscriptions/

Here is the quote: "they don’t include sales from major retailers like Wal-Mart"   Heh... seems like I got chastised for saying the exact same thing not too long ago.   

 

Originally posted by SirBruce

 As to NPD's numbers, you do not seem to know that large retailers are now in fact counted (they resolved their problem with Wal-Mart), so while deficiencies still remain, their numbers remain more accurate than before. 

Bruce

 

See... look how much good we're going for you.  Helping you fix out-dated data and inconsistencies.  Sometimes it's good to have some healthy criticisms from time to time instead of just blind followers. 

Bruce

Originally posted by silkakc

 

 

Yes- the Asian people pay....drum roll please....4  pennies to log into WoW at the Internet Cafe's!

Sorry- I don't equate 4 cents to a game subscription.

Bruce

Point being Bruce, it is A LOT less than people pay in US and Europe for Wow, different way they subscribe and play over there, you can hardly equate any equality between Asian and US/Europe numbers, they are a completely different animal.  Hence once you combine them you hold yourself up to justified criticism.

Your SWG numbers are way too high, I still log into that game ocassionally with station pass and the vast majority of servers are ghost towns.  I am sure you are being fed bad numbers on purpose for this game.  This game is a real sore spot with Smedley and I would not put it past him surreptitiously having his people pump up the numbers.

I still find it amazing that more people stlll play outdated EQ rather than EQ2. 

For those disputing your numbers, I don't know any place else that has better ones. 

I am thankful for the opportunity to see Sir Bruce interact on these boards.

It brings light to the opinions, values, and some of the bias he has towards specific games.  My only hope is the industry sees topics like this so they know how he is "applying" his super secret, optimized, decoder ring applied data.

Originally posted by SirBruce

 

Originally posted by dragonace

F.Y.I.  You might want to update your page located at: www.mmogchart.com/2008/02/11/npd-to-start-tracking-mmog-subscriptions/

Here is the quote: "they don’t include sales from major retailers like Wal-Mart"   Heh... seems like I got chastised for saying the exact same thing not too long ago.   

 

Originally posted by SirBruce

 As to NPD's numbers, you do not seem to know that large retailers are now in fact counted (they resolved their problem with Wal-Mart), so while deficiencies still remain, their numbers remain more accurate than before. 

Bruce

 

See... look how much good we're going for you.  Helping you fix out-dated data and inconsistencies.  Sometimes it's good to have some healthy criticisms from time to time instead of just blind followers. 

Nice try, but you should read down to the comments section.  That's how I knew it was no longer true.

 

Bruce

 

???

That link I posted is from YOUR web site.

This quote:

"they don’t include sales from major retailers like Wal-Mart"

is from YOUR web site.

What part of that is not true?

Here is the entire piece:

The NPD Group has announced today that they’re going to start selling quarterly reports tracking “market size and title shares for paid online subscriptions to video games and MMO/PC games, gaming Web sites, and video game console services.”

Well it’s about time. NPD is currently the industry go-to source for monthly retail sales figures, but they are notorious for also under-reporting said numbers; they don’t include sales from major retailers like Wal-Mart, nor do they track digital downloads. It’ll be interesting to see how their MMOG numbers compare with mine (or if they’ll just copy my numbers for their own report).

From this link: www.mmogchart.com/2008/02/11/npd-to-start-tracking-mmog-subscriptions/

Wouldn't it make sense to edit that bit about Wal-Mart if you now think it's not true?   Especially since you are telling other people it's not true.   Someone reading your site would clearly have the wrong information... correct?  

See... that's another part that makes the site a lot less believable.  Even when you admit there is mis-information on the site... it doesn't get changed.   Don't you think thats a problem with credibility? 

 Heh..  oh well.  It's your site, do what you want.   Just thought you'd appreciate someone trying to point out an error that even you, yourself admit is an error... for some reason you just choose not to fix it. 

Originally posted by SirBruce

 

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL.  This document and the information contained in it are the property of Vivendi Games, Inc.  and may not be used, copied or distributed in any form without its express prior consent.

Bruce

 

Heh.... I'm hoping you got... "express prior consent" from Vivendi before posting that up... otherwise the mods should take it down, as it's illegal.   Wouldn't want you getting in trouble. 

Bruce,

It costs $1.86 to play WoW for 33 hours in China. But, they can choose to walk into those Internet cafes and pay for one hour at a time by paying 5 cents per hour.

5 cents an hour is not "paying a lot more than 4 cents an hour"  as you said Bruce. Anyone with 5 cents in their pocket can play WoW once a month in China and be counted as a paying subscriber.

What I'd really like to know is- is WoW the only game installed in the Cafe's computers- other than the numerous F2P and P2P  Asian games? Are there other NA games even available on those Cafe's computers? And if a person in China pays a nickel for an hour- can they play any game that is installed on those Cafe's PC's?

Was EQ, UO, FF, GW or Lineage ever launched in Asia and put on those Internet Cafe computers?

Will AoC and War launch in Asia when they launch in NA?

Originally posted by silkakc

Bruce,

 

It costs $1.86 to play WoW for 33 hours in China. But, they can choose to walk into those Internet cafes and pay for one hour at a time by paying 5 cents per hour.

 

5 cents an hour is not "paying a lot more than 4 cents an hour"  as you said Bruce. Anyone with 5 cents in their pocket can play WoW once a month in China and be counted as a paying subscriber.

 

What I'd really like to know is- is WoW the only game installed in the Cafe's computers- other than the numerous F2P and P2P  Asian games? Are there other NA games even available on those Cafe's computers? And if a person in China pays a nickel for an hour- can they play any game that is installed on those Cafe's PC's?

Was EQ, UO, FF, GW or Lineage ever launched in Asia and put on those Internet Cafe computers?

Will AoC and War launch in Asia when they launch in NA?

 

 

With that said... we can take a look at the partner whereby WoW is provided to China's Cafe computers... The9 .  From their website here:

www.corp.the9.com/

We can see that they do indeed have licenses for other MMOs... :

MU

World of Warcraft

Soul of The Ultimate Nation

Joyful Journey West

Granado Espada

Guild Wars

Hellgate: London

Ragnarok Online 2

Emil Chronicle Online

Huxley

FIFA Online

Audition 2

Field of Honor

Audition

In addition, The9 is also developing two proprietary MMORPG games, Fantastic Melody Online and Warriors of Fate Online.

It would make sense that at least some of the above titles are also available on those same computers.  There would be next to zero chance that a MMO NOT in that list above would be installed though.  That's my take on it anyway.