General Discussion

Originally posted by Vrazule

I'll accept the accuracy of SirBruce over any random rabid poster from this site.  Ballpark figures are good enough for me, accuracy to a Tee is only important to accountants.  I like the chart because it shows me which companies are on the up and up when they talk about their own business versus those who lie out their asses, like Turbine and SOE.  Both have a history not only about misleading subscription numbers, but also in shady and unprofessional practices against their customers, mistreatment of customers on bulletin boards and so forth.  All of these are reasons why I won't play their games, they just don't deserve my money.  I also factor in their style of development and typical end product, which I have never like from both of those companies either.

Newsflash to you : All companies put their own spin on things to make the marketing sound better.  At least Turbine wasn't LYING when they said they had 4 million characters made in their Middle Earth.

Blizzard's "10 million" stickers on their boxes aren't exactly the truth. There is NOT 10 million SUBSCRIBED WoW players. 6 Million of the 10 do NOT PAY MONTHLY FEES. Only 4.5 million pay subscription fees for WoW and that's in North America and Europe.

And Bruce's chart should show that. If the chart was meant to be truly accurate for a "Subscriber MMO" chart.

I think his estimate though is accurate that WoW will hit 12 million.  What the heck- Blizzard will ship the next expansion for free to the Asian Internet cafes again ...like they did with Burning Crusade. Only the US and Europe have to PAY for the Game  boxes and PAY the monthly game fees.

And the " your preciousss LOTRO" comment  by Sir Bruce was very unprofessional and rude.

The Internet cafe players in China are still paying to play the game.  Only those active in the last 30 days are counted, so I have no problem with equating them with monthly subscribers.  True, they don't have to buy the game box, but otherwise it's no different from someone who plays WoW or EQ with a game time card.

Bruce

Originally posted by SirBruce

Well, the letter grade is only on the data reported.  So yes, in some cases, I have great certainty what the subscriber numbers were for a MMOG 3 years ago, but I can't tell you what it is today.  This isn't a problem generally but it can distort current market share data by a small amount.  With WoW and NCSoft's games dominating most everything else, though, we're really only talking about a few tenths of a percent.

Also, a lot of those games you mention that haven't been updated in a while are closed or are no-longer subscription based so are now 0 (Earth & Beyond, MCO, The Sims Online, ShadowBane, etc.)

Bruce

 

Originally posted by LiquidWolf

 

This is a good point, I have found NOTHING else on the web that does the same thing. You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used. 

I've always found that looking at server lists and population status (low/medium/high) is a good way to tell how well something is doing.

Granted, you need a general understandin of what "HIGH/FULL" means, but it does help.

I'll judge the a-hole critics here as people who just want to prove someone wrong, and can't let it go. Much like Darwa's initial post: He rates MMORPG so low but still comes by here to make a post.

Wow!  And this generation is supposed to bring about social change based on logic that is setting a precedent over previous generations.

You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?  If pharmaceutical companies approached research like this I sure wouldn't even want to take over the counter medicine.

For the sake of argument, I would like to ask Sir Bruce what level of education he has concerning business, statistics, and methods of research?  This is not an attack, it is merely a question because honestly I do not know.  But I think it is important in order to be taken legitimately as an analyst you at least have some background in data gathering, statistical modeling, and business research.  This is one of those times education is important.

EDIT:  NM I found your WiKi entry and while you have a degree, which is good, I see that you are NOT trained in statistics, business analysis, business research, or any other business for that matter.  Physics, computer science, and philosophy (btw I am impressed), are not business or statistical methods concerning business, although you should be aware of scientific methods of study based on your physics trainings.  And based on that you should be aware of why there are criticisms with your analysis of anonymous data sources and the lack of verifiable date.  Just because you say it is does not mean the rest of the educated community will accept that it is.

Originally posted by DragonOak

 

Originally posted by LiquidWolf

 

This is a good point, I have found NOTHING else on the web that does the same thing. You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used. 

I've always found that looking at server lists and population status (low/medium/high) is a good way to tell how well something is doing.

Granted, you need a general understandin of what "HIGH/FULL" means, but it does help.

I'll judge the a-hole critics here as people who just want to prove someone wrong, and can't let it go. Much like Darwa's initial post: He rates MMORPG so low but still comes by here to make a post.

 

Wow!  And this generation is supposed to bring about social change based on logic that is setting a precedent over previous generations.

You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?  If pharmaceutical companies approached research like this I sure wouldn't even want to take over the counter medicine.

For the sake of argument, I would like to ask Sir Bruce what level of education he has concerning business, statistics, and methods of research?  This is not an attack, it is merely a question because honestly I do not know.  But I think it is important in order to be taken legitimately as an analyst you at least have some background in data gathering, statistical modeling, and business research.  This is one of those times education is important.

I just find it funny that people say we are picking on him.  If you can't stand the heat... stay out of the kitchen comes to mind.  The only personal attacks seem to be coming from Bruce and his followers for another thing.  Heh... not that we're really dealing with facts though... so no biggie. 

Originally posted by DragonOak

 

Originally posted by LiquidWolf

 

This is a good point, I have found NOTHING else on the web that does the same thing. You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used. 

I've always found that looking at server lists and population status (low/medium/high) is a good way to tell how well something is doing.

Granted, you need a general understandin of what "HIGH/FULL" means, but it does help.

I'll judge the a-hole critics here as people who just want to prove someone wrong, and can't let it go. Much like Darwa's initial post: He rates MMORPG so low but still comes by here to make a post.

 

Wow!  And this generation is supposed to bring about social change based on logic that is setting a precedent over previous generations.

You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?  If pharmaceutical companies approached research like this I sure wouldn't even want to take over the counter medicine.

For the sake of argument, I would like to ask Sir Bruce what level of education he has concerning business, statistics, and methods of research?  This is not an attack, it is merely a question because honestly I do not know.  But I think it is important in order to be taken legitimately as an analyst you at least have some background in data gathering, statistical modeling, and business research.  This is one of those times education is important.

Damn, I got quoted. 

So here is the problem with your response. You are assuming that the viewer has to care about the accuracy of his data and graphs. Scratch that, I care, but my accuracy requirements are much different than yours it sounds like.  

It is accurate enough for my needs (Which, to be honest, are not many). It succeeds.

As far as I am concerned it doesn't directly lie outright, but many of the posts mock it and bash the author, who put together a pretty good site in my opinion. In his spare time nonetheless. Come on, the whole site has "reader beware" or "my opinion" all over it.

But, what were you pointing out in quoting my post?  I'm presuming:

"You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used."

But can't quite be certain since you basically used my response as fodder for a snide remark. I find that petty and unhelpful. Regardless, I can see a point where I should have stated "It will be watched" rather than "I will watch it." 

"Our species eat the wounded ones" So go ahead and chew on that bone I gave you.

"You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?"

If this was the case, i'm fairly certain multiple MMO companies would have contact Sir Bruce to either pull the site down, correct it, or they would have released statements of their own to combat such dangerous info. Particularly from the press, hits, or even this topic. From what it sounds like, many companies are actually trying to promote his efforts. Perhaps they feel he is inflating things to their benefit. But in the end it is reader beware, this is the internet.

Your post (particularly at "Wow! And this generation") suggests you are older than me or possibly my superior, but you do not demonstrate it this time. Particularly with your jab at me.

Either his data sources, or his lack of a resume (since you asked for his credentials) doesn't fit your standards. Problem is, i'm fairly certain this is one of those times where it is your problem, not his.

No, I don't have a degree in such things, nor is one required in order to do industry analysis and reporting.  Bill Gates didn't have a degree in engineering or business, either.

Bruce

Originally posted by SirBruce

No, I don't have a degree in such things, nor is one required in order to do industry analysis and reporting.  Bill Gates didn't have a degree in engineering or business, either.

Bruce

 

Thanks for clarifying Bruce.  And yes... there are quite a few that did quite well without a degree.  Who knows... perhaps our criticisms will inspire you to greatness as well. 

From this site: www.forbes.com/2003/07/28/cx_dd_0728mondaymatch.html

Richest self-made Americans
without a college degree:

William H. Gates III
Harvard University, dropout
Net worth: $43 billion
Source: Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people )

Paul Allen
Washington State University, dropout
Net worth: $21 billion
Source: Microsoft; Charter Communications (nasdaq: