General Discussion

Originally posted by Cabe2323

 

Everything I have read says that the game is doing just as well in Europe as it is doing in NA.  So how can you say they aren't doing that well?  Codemasters has around the same number of servers if not a couple more then the US has. 

 

I guess my biggest issue is how can you honestly compare game populations when you do not account for markets out of the NA market for the smaller games but then compare them to World of Warcrafts 10+ Million number.  Why not compare the 200Kish subscriber games to World of Warcrafts 2 million NA number to make it a more fair comparison? 

Also how come you do not include the extremely large asian games that have a higher population then World of Warcraft does?  There are numerous Asian Games with millions of subscribers.  I can't remember them (as I don't really like the game style there) but I have seen claims of 80+ million subscriber games. 

The numbers I provide for LotRO are worldwide.  Again, the 200K for August 2007 is based on Turbine's own statement which indicated they are at or over 200K subscribers.  Even allowing for generous box sales in Europe at that time, we know they weren't more than 300K subscribers then.  But my estimates always err on the conservative side.  I don't know LotRO's box sales since then these things generally decline over time, so I don't expect LotRO is selling 50K boxes a month anymore.

The Asian games you speak of are nearly all free-to-play, microtransaction-based; they aren't subscription based games.  The claims you see are often bad reporting of the total number of registered players who have ever played the game, not a current monthly active account or anything like that.  Free-to-Play games are a growing part of the MMOG market and do deserve to be tracked according to their own metrics, but you can't fairly mix them in with subscription-based MMOGs.

Bruce

Originally posted by Cabe2323

 

Originally posted by SirBruce

 

Originally posted by Cabe2323

 

http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/features/analyst-midway-only-one-solid-franchise-away-from-profitability/70750/?biz=1

 

I can't remember the other link I saw but this shows that Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter's information about sales.  He states that Midway sold around 350K copies in Q2 of 2007(not sure on Midway's quarters but quarter 2 at my work ends in April, that is Military Quarters though since our fiscal calendar runs from october to october, but even if it is calendar year that would mean 350K sold in NA by June 2007).  Which would not include any of the sales by codemasters, or the new sales in Korea, China, or Russia.  Since this was only talking about Midway's sales. 

(And while this source is still more of a guess, no offense but he comes from a more reliable source then you do Bruce.  Since he works as an analyst for a Major investment company.)

So, yeah, that's just a guess from June 2007.  Want to know the actual number?  172K

 

http://au.gamespot.com/news/6176030.html

So this just shows you that analysts for major investment companies are far more wild guessers than I am.  The guy's estimate was off by over half.  Half!  If they had sold 350K by August they would have shown up higher on NPD's sales charts during July and August.  So perhaps they've sold 350K units by now.  As for overseas sales, I'm not aware of any data but they don't seem particularly large as of yet.

Bruce

 

Everything I have read says that the game is doing just as well in Europe as it is doing in NA.  So how can you say they aren't doing that well?  Codemasters has around the same number of servers if not a couple more then the US has. 

 

I guess my biggest issue is how can you honestly compare game populations when you do not account for markets out of the NA market for the smaller games but then compare them to World of Warcrafts 10+ Million number.  Why not compare the 200Kish subscriber games to World of Warcrafts 2 million NA number to make it a more fair comparison? 

Also how come you do not include the extremely large asian games that have a higher population then World of Warcraft does?  There are numerous Asian Games with millions of subscribers.  I can't remember them (as I don't really like the game style there) but I have seen claims of 80+ million subscriber games. 

He don't and shouldn't put up numbers from Asian games because of the whole inet cafe thing. Can you really put up numbers from a cafe that buys the subs and then wants to add the number of people accessing their computers. It just isn't the same as indivitual accounts.

Originally posted by Brenics

Then you must have forgot about all the days on VN boards where you were getting hit hard on numbers that were not anywhere near what you would post. As for being the most accurate for a long time you were and still are the only person putting up numbers like this.  Granted there is http://mmogdata.voig.com/ but no one really puts much into his numbers and the side joke was it was you who did that site. But that has been confirmed it wasn't you. I just don't see the problem Bruce with putting an * next to the name for example LOTRO on the excel sheet saying this is not from corporate records. Because you refuse to do this little thing hurts you and makes a lot of us wonder why you refuse to do it.

Oh, I didn't forget about them; I just don't consider them that important.  The vast majority of the industry cares little for what some frustrated ex-Horizons player said on a Vault mesage board.  Again, the numbers were, in fact, in agreement with what I posted; it's only some players who didn't want to believe them.

I assure you I did not do the mmogdata site and have no connection with it other than the fact that they used a lot of my data.  I've spoke with Phil 'Vortal' White and we could not come to an arrangement on working together so I wish him luck; I can't vouch for his sources or methods.

You're the first time I've ever seen someone request a * for such a thing on the Excel sheet, so it's not acurate to say I've refused to do it in the past.  In any case, this is, I believe, sufficiently covered in the reliability ratings in the Analysis section of the report and if anyone wants to question the source for a specific data point, all they have to do is ask.  So there's no secret that some data points aren't from corporate records.

Bruce

Originally posted by SirBruce

 

Originally posted by Brenics

Then you must have forgot about all the days on VN boards where you were getting hit hard on numbers that were not anywhere near what you would post. As for being the most accurate for a long time you were and still are the only person putting up numbers like this.  Granted there is http://mmogdata.voig.com/ but no one really puts much into his numbers and the side joke was it was you who did that site. But that has been confirmed it wasn't you. I just don't see the problem Bruce with putting an * next to the name for example LOTRO on the excel sheet saying this is not from corporate records. Because you refuse to do this little thing hurts you and makes a lot of us wonder why you refuse to do it.

 

Oh, I didn't forget about them; I just don't consider them that important.  The vast majority of the industry cares little for what some frustrated ex-Horizons player said on a Vault mesage board.  Again, the numbers were, in fact, in agreement with what I posted; it's only some players who didn't want to believe them.

I assure you I did not do the mmogdata site and have no connection with it other than the fact that they used a lot of my data.  I've spoke with Phil 'Vortal' White and we could not come to an arrangement on working together so I wish him luck; I can't vouch for his sources or methods.

You're the first time I've ever seen someone request a * for such a thing on the Excel sheet, so it's not acurate to say I've refused to do it in the past.  In any case, this is, I believe, sufficiently covered in the reliability ratings in the Analysis section of the report and if anyone wants to question the source for a specific data point, all they have to do is ask.  So there's no secret that some data points aren't from corporate records.

Bruce

 

I requested it a few times Bruce on VN boards but you always go to the Analysis section comment. Why not put an * next to the game then people will know to access that part of it and it would save you so much time explaining why you put this or that number up for this or that game. Dude it would help you not hurt you in the long run. But because you keep refusing to do it I guess I will just let it go.

Originally posted by Brenics

He don't and shouldn't put up numbers from Asian games because of the whole inet cafe thing. Can you really put up numbers from a cafe that buys the subs and then wants to add the number of people accessing their computers. It just isn't the same as indivitual accounts.

Bruce

Originally posted by Brenics

I requested it a few times Bruce on VN boards but you always go to the Analysis section comment. Why not put an * next to the game then people will know to access that part of it and it would save you so much time explaining why you put this or that number up for this or that game. Dude it would help you not hurt you in the long run. But because you keep refusing to do it I guess I will just let it go.

Most people don't read the Aanlysis section as it is, let alone the FAQ.  A little asterisk isn't going to change anything.

Bruce

Originally posted by SirBruce

 

Originally posted by Brenics

He don't and shouldn't put up numbers from Asian games because of the whole inet cafe thing. Can you really put up numbers from a cafe that buys the subs and then wants to add the number of people accessing their computers. It just isn't the same as indivitual accounts.

Internet game room players who accessed the game in the last 30 days are included (at least for Blizzard and NCSoft's games).

 

Bruce

 

Ok then I guess I was wrong. Anyway Bruce keep up the good work even if I always give you a hard time on it. You know there are always people like me on the other side of the debate. By the way D0Zer says hi. 

Originally posted by SirBruce

 

Originally posted by Cabe2323

 

Everything I have read says that the game is doing just as well in Europe as it is doing in NA.  So how can you say they aren't doing that well?  Codemasters has around the same number of servers if not a couple more then the US has. 

 

I guess my biggest issue is how can you honestly compare game populations when you do not account for markets out of the NA market for the smaller games but then compare them to World of Warcrafts 10+ Million number.  Why not compare the 200Kish subscriber games to World of Warcrafts 2 million NA number to make it a more fair comparison? 

Also how come you do not include the extremely large asian games that have a higher population then World of Warcraft does?  There are numerous Asian Games with millions of subscribers.  I can't remember them (as I don't really like the game style there) but I have seen claims of 80+ million subscriber games. 

 

The numbers I provide for LotRO are worldwide.  Again, the 200K for August 2007 is based on Turbine's own statement which indicated they are at or over 200K subscribers.  Even allowing for generous box sales in Europe at that time, we know they weren't more than 300K subscribers then.  But my estimates always err on the conservative side.  I don't know LotRO's box sales since then these things generally decline over time, so I don't expect LotRO is selling 50K b