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Lord of the Rings Online

Lord of the Rings Online 

General Discussion  » Number of LOTRO Subscribers?

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106 posts found
  SlickShoes

Novice Member

Joined: 3/01/06
Posts: 1040

5/11/07 5:40:24 AM#61
Originally posted by iduums
no one is being realistic here.  Just use some common sense.  There are only 11 servers for this game, only 2 servers are capped usually. Typically the cap is set around 3000-3500 even if you multiply the cap x 11 your looking at 40,000 playing.  A good number to use for subscription rate is 10x the number usually on.  That would give you 400,000 Subs.  I can tell you right now they dont have anything near 400,000 subs your looking more along the line of 200,000.  And that is a sucessful MMO. 

People keep thinking a MMO needs to have numbers similar to WOW to be a success.  EQ1 only has bout 400k subs, EQ 2 only about 300K also.  All WoW did was inflate the MMO community.  A good mmo will have between 250k-500k, a awesome mmo your looking at 500k to 1mill.

LOTRO will not be a runaway success like wow because it gives the WoW fanboy nothing to stop his subscription and come play lotro.  Granted there are some features that are different but it's to much ALIKE!   ONLY if  you are a true LOTR fan will you be lured away.

 Also keep in mid just because it's a good IP doesn't mean every single LOTR fan will just pick up the box b/c it's a lotr game, there have been a ton of console games that have done horrible in sales.  Warcraft was a very popular PC game it's one the reasons why the MMO sold well, as for Lord of the Rings most of the console games were not very good, dont assume just b/c it's lotr it going to sell like hotcakes


use the charts at http://www.mmorpgchart.com/

So there are 11 North american servers then? Im sure there about 10 EU ones, and in a few weeks the Oceania part of the game will open up, the servers are in no way capped at about 2-3000 people! Anyway most of the servers in EU anyway are pretty full and people are allready being encouraged not to roll charcters on certain servers. The game has only been out 2 and a half weeks and every server is packed just about all the time. The game is hardly struggling. As for how many subscribers it has, i have no idea!

  KinslayerX

Novice Member

Joined: 10/05/06
Posts: 87

5/11/07 6:10:56 AM#62
If the current LOTR subscriber figures were actually good and showed that LOTRO is a heavywieght MMO with real long term ambitions and prospects, do you not think Turbine would have been shouting them in every media release the've done since it went live?

The only thing Turbine have actually released about how well LOTRO is doing in retail is the fact they were the number one selling PC game. That really means very little as it doesn't take huge volumes to be the number 1 game.

Turbine's silence on the huge number of subscribers people here are pulling out fo the air says volumes and I suspect once the 6 month period is up they will be even less healthy as AoC, WAR, TCOS, POTBS and some other big hitters come out. Even if figures were released, they would be entirely meaningless and the numbers at that 6 month stage are what people should be concentrating on.

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  Coldmeat

Novice Member

Joined: 3/19/04
Posts: 3480

We're trapped in the belly of this horrible machine
and the machine is bleeding to death

5/11/07 6:35:02 AM#63

The games two weeks out of the gate. Until May 25th, there won't be any sub numbers. And those will only give a basic idea of what the games retention is going to look like

After that, it's the 6th month mark, which will be the big one. More so, because PotBS, and AoC should be releasing at about that time.

  DarthMaulUK

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/24/05
Posts: 298

5/11/07 7:05:19 AM#64
I think you find turbine said around 60k subs

get your 7 day FREE sub to SWTOR
http://www.swtor.com/r/7DDKjQ

  Brenelael

Guide

Joined: 10/19/06
Posts: 3985

Pointing out the Obvious to the Oblivious since 2006

5/11/07 7:43:36 AM#65
I think that you'll find that this game will see a surge of subscriptions at first that will well top the 600k mark. But as people play the game and new games come out their subs will dwindle to around the 200k-300k before it levels off. LotRo is a good solid game but it's nothing new or original. Once people realize this a lot will migrate to other new games or back to their old games as time passes. I don't see LotRo failing or anything that dramatic as it is a good solid release. I just don't see it keeping a large player base as its just the same ol thing in a shiny new box.

Bren

while(horse==dead)
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beat();
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  iduums

Novice Member

Joined: 7/08/05
Posts: 207

5/11/07 11:32:14 AM#66

"over 1million people to play the open beta."

They invited over 1 million does not mean a million will play, you lucky to get 10% of that number so that would be 100k.  Also they did NOT have only 2 servers for the open beta they had about 4, and then slowly added the rest.  There no way you are getting 10,000 people on one server the game will run like shit, that is why most company's cap it around 3000-3500.  The only company i'm aware of that will show you the exact numbers is mythic, and cudo's to them!

just another reason to play war

  Cabe2323

Novice Member

Joined: 8/03/06
Posts: 2953

The nine most terrifying words are: I''m from the government and I''m here to help. -Reagan

5/11/07 11:38:35 AM#67
Originally posted by iduums

"over 1million people to play the open beta."

They invited over 1 million does not mean a million will play, you lucky to get 10% of that number so that would be 100k.  Also they did NOT have only 2 servers for the open beta they had about 4, and then slowly added the rest.  There no way you are getting 10,000 people on one server the game will run like shit, that is why most company's cap it around 3000-3500.  The only company i'm aware of that will show you the exact numbers is mythic, and cudo's to them!

just another reason to play war

You have no idea how many people they have per server.  EvE runs 1 server with their 120K+ subscribers.  With a Peak population of around 30K-40K on at one time.  So it is possible to run servers that can handle more then 3500 people.  Heck Asheron's Call 1 in 1999 could hold 3000 people on at one time and you honestly think with the advances in server technology that they still are capped at 3500? 

 

Secondly where would Turbine come up with this magical subscription number?  Would you like them to release that their current subscriber number?  Oh wait it is zero.   No one has subscribed yet.  The first subscriptions won't happen until the end of this month.

Currently playing:
LOTRO & WoW (not much WoW though because Mines of Moria rocks!!!!)

Looking Foward too:
Bioware games (Dragon Age & Star Wars The Old Republic)

  Meridion

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/22/06
Posts: 1502

None of you understand. I'm not locked in here with you. You're locked in here with me!

5/11/07 1:38:49 PM#68
It will break the one million mark. I haven't read the thread but as a result of all the feedback I get from friends, online and offline, commercials, reviews, community population... I would bet a pretty large amount of money that it WILL hit the one million mark, easily. It will not at all stay at the levels of EQ2 or alike, just look at the super-broad acceptance this game has at the moment and the armies that are crowding the servers...

Meridion
  iduums

Novice Member

Joined: 7/08/05
Posts: 207

5/11/07 2:42:27 PM#69

It very easy, all they have to do is show the numbers of peeps on each server.  Take a look at DAOC

www.camelotherald.com

A old game but a goody, it's slowly dying yet they are not affraid to show their overall numbers for EACH day.

 

More game companies should be like Mythic!

 

  lomiller

Novice Member

Joined: 5/09/06
Posts: 1812

5/11/07 2:43:57 PM#70
Originally posted by Meridion
It will break the one million mark. I haven't read the thread but as a result of all the feedback I get from friends, online and offline, commercials, reviews, community population... I would bet a pretty large amount of money that it WILL hit the one million mark, easily. It will not at all stay at the levels of EQ2 or alike, just look at the super-broad acceptance this game has at the moment and the armies that are crowding the servers...

Meridion

I agree. LotRO may not look that appealing to a MMO veteran, but it’s got a broader appeal.  I’ve seen a few people citing other games that will “knock it back down” but the people who will play those games are not likely to play LotRO.  
 
More importantly none of the games mentioned have any hope of hitting the sales numbers LotRO is currently getting. LotRO presells have been near #1 since the weak after Burning Crusades was released. Other then the week its long awaited expansion was released even WoW hasn’t been able to top LotRO, think about that for a second…
 
Certainly that doesn’t mean LotRO is in immanent danger of catching up to WoW’s subscriber base but it puts it FAR ahead of any other MMO and there is nothing on the horizon that shows any signs of numbers anywhere close to this.     
  iduums

Novice Member

Joined: 7/08/05
Posts: 207

5/11/07 2:45:57 PM#71

lomiller you have to be kidding me.  Warhammer Online sub base will triple LOTRO.  I expect WAR to give wow a run for it's money.  Between that and AOC, i'd expect them to put a good dent in WOW's population.

 

edit: every game i play there is a ton of chatter in the general chat about warhammer online. 

  lomiller

Novice Member

Joined: 5/09/06
Posts: 1812

5/11/07 2:53:25 PM#72
Originally posted by iduums

lomiller you have to be kidding me.  Warhammer Online sub base will triple LOTRO.  I expect WAR to give wow a run for it's money.  Between that and AOC, i'd expect them to put a good dent in WOW's population.

 

edit: every game i play there is a ton of chatter in the general chat about warhammer online. 


I put that right up there with “how long will it take Vanguard to hit 500K subscribers”
 
WAR appeals to a traditional MMO audience and in today’s market that means “success” is about 200K subs.  300K subs would be astounding success and speculating any more then that for any new MMO is simply unrealistic until the boxes are on the shelves.  
  iduums

Novice Member

Joined: 7/08/05
Posts: 207

5/11/07 2:56:59 PM#73

please give me what you are smoking.  Your wrong

 

edit: "

"I put that right up there with “how long will it take Vanguard to hit 500K subscribers”
Vangard was a shit game before it was even released anyone who thought it would do well is smoking something just like you.  Everytime i read a WAR review all i read is how much fun it is and how polished the game is for it not even being in Beta stages yet.
  Superman0X

Elite Member

Joined: 3/28/06
Posts: 1145

5/11/07 3:12:20 PM#74
Originally posted by iduums

please give me what you are smoking.  Your wrong

 

edit: "

"I put that right up there with “how long will it take Vanguard to hit 500K subscribers”
Vangard was a shit game before it was even released anyone who thought it would do well is smoking something just like you.  Everytime i read a WAR review all i read is how much fun it is and how polished the game is for it not even being in Beta stages yet.


What you have just described is a recipe for failure. If there are no complaints about the game, and no-one stating that it is not for them, then you are obviosly not hearing it all... and that means that they are hiding the flaws.

For those of you that remember, when WoW came out... many people said it was a terrible game. This is to be expected with any game... because some people just wont like it. If all you hear is good news, then what you are hearing is worthless.

  Meridion

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/22/06
Posts: 1502

None of you understand. I'm not locked in here with you. You're locked in here with me!

5/11/07 4:13:16 PM#75
Warhammer is a 100% game of players - quoting the project leader here - "beating the living crap out of each other". The game is for PvP people, it has a certain design, is coming with a very very special license (that is highly disputed [I know many who don't like Warhammer at all]). By quotes from Devs it will not feature extensive RP, Crafting and limited PvE content...

In short - This game is too special to be broadly popular. Hell, if you wanna break sub records, make a game that people on MMORPG.com hate and people on videogames.net like. I hope you get the point !

Meridion
  iduums

Novice Member

Joined: 7/08/05
Posts: 207

5/11/07 6:23:56 PM#76
"By quotes from Devs it will not feature extensive RP"

oh please show me these quotes.  From what i've read its going to be a RP dream.

Oh and btw there will be a ton of PVE content in WAR should do some research first.
  ignisfatuus

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/24/06
Posts: 34

5/11/07 6:34:49 PM#77
People keep pointing to the game's licence as a guarantee of success.  Are you forgetting DDO?  Sure, you could say D & D does not have the cultural cachet of Tolkien's world, but it still has a significant following.  This alone wasn't enough to prop it up though.  Gameplay will trump setting every time. 

Seeing as how we all are guessing at the max subscriber base for LOTRO, I'll throw my prognostication in as settling between 500-750k.  This game is as deep as a puddle. 
  drbaltazar

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/28/07
Posts: 7987

5/11/07 6:42:59 PM#78
dont forget  this game is planned as the book (trilogy)so if we reach all 3 game might be very nice indead .i love the dwarf so far.they might get big we ll see after summer lol cause who in their right mind play in summer
  shermon15

Novice Member

Joined: 9/18/04
Posts: 61

5/11/07 7:02:09 PM#79

It seems LOTR is getting less of the leet pwn u type wow kids and more of the generations that grew up on the story.  This is not scientific in any way and purely based on what I am seeing and reading.   My guess is the former type of player will remain in WoW and then make the transition to AOC or WAR.  The later will remain in LOTR.

The 8 million figure from WoW includes Asia where LOTR has not launched yet.  I have seen 3 million NA/EU players thrown out there.  LOTR will take its share while AOC and WAR will fragment more later this year into next..  I have also noticed many of the players in my guild in LOTR did not play WoW, but came from games like EQ2, DAoC, etc. 

Who knows what the actual numbers are, but there are many people enjoying  the game and many people enjoying bashing it.

 

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  Wraithmire

Novice Member

Joined: 4/03/07
Posts: 329

5/11/07 7:07:26 PM#80
Originally posted by iduums
"By quotes from Devs it will not feature extensive RP"

oh please show me these quotes.  From what i've read its going to be a RP dream.

Oh and btw there will be a ton of PVE content in WAR should do some research first.
show me proof that Warhammer will sale well, and that it is going to be the best game ever to be released

wait, no proof? Thats too bad...

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