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4/25/07 4:12:16 AM#21
Originally posted by zaxtor99you're completely wrong because lotro has poor content. And can't fight against AOC and WAR (that's why turbine launches it now, he has 6 months from april to october ) Lotro is cool but has the lowest content of all MMORPG's played with. 200 000 subs in april (maybe) 100 000 in 3 months 50 000 in 6 months (Founder offer 6 months and ... cancel - 10 000 in december (no isengard no minas tirith etc): only founder offer/for life  (5000 boxes + 5000 others imo)was in beta since december 2006 and i'm not going to subscribe not even take the standard box. BUT my account isn't closed :) so turbine could say my account = 1 subscription |
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4/25/07 4:12:37 AM#22
Anywhere from 400k to 800k will be the first number. I've never really given subscription numbers any real thought for any game though, so it is a wild guess. I really don't think that all the pre-orders will have subscribed, but at the same time I can see more people picking up the game now that it has been launched and I can see it passing the original mark.
Where it will end up after it's all said and done? Around the 1 million mark. Reason would be that more news and, hopefully, release dates are given for the other major hitters and it seems that they have more hype/community building around them then this. Then again, they may push back the dates for the other games farther, or there might be new content that blows everyone away and gets more subscribers. We will see eventually.. |
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4/25/07 4:57:45 AM#23
It is going to do well but I'm going to question its retainability over some other mmorpgs. If it has a lot of people only playing the game for two months, its subscription level may get to a point where it isn't rising as steeply as it could have done. But still, think it will amass 500k or so subscribers at some point, could even potentially get to a million. But it has a strong competitor with WoW and upcomming mmorpgs like Age of Conan on the horizon. |
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4/25/07 6:50:47 AM#24
Originally posted by QuinguReally? Go ahead and try to find official information about 600k pre-orders. Its just a rumor that for some reason is now accepted as fact. |
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4/25/07 7:01:15 AM#25
I think it will do well, but nowhere near the numbers I've been hearing. In open beta they had 11 servers which would mean about 150k to 200k players (could be even less since at the start of an MMO everyone is in the same zones and they usually lower the cap on the servers), a long way from the 600k to 1 million they seemed to be expecting. I do think the will be in the 500k range after the first year, and as WoW as shown us, easy does not have to mean short life.
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4/25/07 7:15:19 AM#26
Originally posted by kwaiSo your saying this game is for hardcore mmo players ? Instead the noob gank fest player ? You can Spar players , but o wait, you can't gank them LOL. It is funny how mmorpg genre has gotten so twisted . who me ? |
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4/25/07 7:23:07 AM#27
Originally posted by zaxtor99 Will do :) The game seriously lacks content, believe me. |
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Kyleran
 Bitter Vet™
Joined: 9/13/06
Fools find no pleasure in understanding, but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV |
4/25/07 7:25:26 AM#28
I actually can't begin to venture a decent guess... ok, how about this...I'm pretty confident there are more than 1000 people playing... thats about as far as I'll go.
Unless Turbine releases official numbers, that's all we'll ever be able to do is conjecture about possible subscriptions. And the idea of lifetime subs clouds things a bit.... not sure how you figure that in, since those folks can stop playing, but never actually stop being subscribers...so do we need two sets of books for LotRO... Number of subscribers vs Number of active players? And this next point I say in all honesty... I know at least 20 people who have all stated this one simple truth.... "I'm playing LotRO until Warhammer comes out"... so its really up to Mythic..if they make a great game, you will see the number of active players in LotRO fall off a significant amount.... I'll be one of them along with many others... "What gamers want ... is new game play patterns different from what they've experienced before" - Axehilt |
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4/25/07 7:26:32 AM#29
Originally posted by Mars505If its not open PvP (IE: you can kill anyone on sight) then its not PvP in my opinion. Granted that it shouldnt be possible for the free peoples to kill each other, but it should be possible to play an orc or something. Dont say monster play, because it sucks. You should be able to go every where with your orc. I really dont see why they havent implemented that, and I have read a lot on the official forums about it. Just dont agree on what people are saying about it not beeing true to lore. Well this is not the same war as the one in the books. Shadow of angmar is another war, and therefor "dark side" dont necesarily loose all. |
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charlizd
 Apprentice Member
Joined: 2/07/07
Live Life today, Because tomorrow is but a dream and yesterday only a |
4/25/07 7:28:19 AM#30
Originally posted by MMO2007You say no minas tirith,no isengard no this no that so.. lets put all content out with launch and have every 1 be done with the game in a couple of months... meh what marketing school did you go to, well if ya paid any attention in beta u would know that content will be brought out in expansions first 1 happening in june so maybe have some hard proof b4 saying there is poor content and get ya facts straight so i suppose now that this game is out it will be the WAR, AOC that is gonna knock WOW,LOTRO off the shelf well think again my friends because you may just find that these games will not offer much more than what you already have. 
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4/25/07 7:30:39 AM#31
GREAT game... People everywhere - packed servers... I dumped WOW after playing it for a short time in open beta. Just signed up for the lifetime sub.
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4/25/07 7:56:12 AM#32
Haven't played it, but from the buzz it's getting both here and elsewhere I'd guess the subscribers are in the hundreds of thousands. This number will continue to rise after release, and my guess is there will be 500,000 or more playing towards the end of the year. There is a gap in the market created by all the people fed up with WoW, and at the moment LotRO seems to be the best game to fill that gap for many players.
Whether subscriptions continue to rise next year is another matter. It will depend a lot on what the competition come up with. If another game such as AoC or WhO is both as good as promised, and is marketed well, then these will attract many people who may have instead subscribed to LotRO, and numbers will stabilise at 500k. If the other games released this year fail to impress the mass market and become niche, then LotRO subscribers will continue to rise into the millions. I'd also say that the carebear/not-carebear argument isn't as important here as many people think. The big subscription numbers will come from attracting young adults in the 13-25 range, either as a first MMO or a second MMO after WoW. Such people won't be quite as hardcore about PvP as some of the EvE or UO fans on this site, and may just see it as one feature among many, rather than a show-stopper. Disclaimer: This post is entirely based on under-informed guesswork. |
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Cabe2323
 Novice Member
Joined: 8/03/06
The nine most terrifying words are: I''m from the government and I''m here to help. -Reagan |
4/25/07 8:10:36 AM#33
Originally posted by Gameloading
So that is where everyone is most likely getting that from. Which it does make sense though considering LOTRO has been the best selling game at most online sales sites since back in February. So 3 months of being the number 1 selling game should net you some big numbers. Plus you have other circumstantial proof. Like BestBuy being backordered for the game, etc. Currently playing: Looking Foward too: |
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Cabe2323
Novice Member
Joined: 8/03/06
The nine most terrifying words are: I''m from the government and I''m here to help. -Reagan |
4/25/07 8:15:45 AM#34
Originally posted by MMO2007 Lol, This is completely rediculous. LOTRO is a PVE game it will not compete directly with AOC or WAR. Those games will be fighting each other for subscribers (which in my opinion WAR will win) and also fighting WoW for subscribers. LOTRO also has more content then WoW released with. I forget the exact number of quests but there were more in LOTRO then in WoW. Also, Turbine is releasing their first free content update in June. This will add more quests, more Monster Play stuff, a whole new zone, and some more stuff. So anyone who thinks the game is going away is just fooling themselves. LOTRO is going to be a major force in the MMO world. I personally think it will end up with more subscribers then any other NA/EU MMO not named WoW. Will it beat WoW's worldwide numbers? Heck no. Can it possibly beat WoW's NA/EU numbers? Possibly. I could see the NA servers somewhere in the 700K-1million range. But I can see the EU servers blowing up and being over 2 Million. The game is even more popular in Europe then here in the US. Currently playing: Looking Foward too: |
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4/25/07 8:18:19 AM#35
Originally posted by Cabe2323WOW started with 1000 quests, LOTRO started with 2100 quests, they adding 60 new quests on first content update. |
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4/25/07 9:10:54 AM#36
Originally posted by Cabe2323
When you consider that most lists have had LoTRO pre sells at or above Burning Crusades sales (except for TBC release day) I certainly believe they are launching with better then 500K subscribers.
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4/25/07 9:30:09 AM#37
Well no one asked for my opinion but hey, i'll give it =] Ultimately Lotr's subscription database will rocket from launch, simply and purely because of its name. Seriously how many people actually bother reading about games? they just want it, and play it. Unfortunately Lotr is very restricting and really is a cheap imitation of Eq, I myself had a little ponder on lotr, great stuff.. but just questing.. sure great for some people, just not enough for me. At the end of the day people want fun, so regardless of its legendary name lotr will quickly lose people when far superior games come out. Seriously though, people will become board of lotr within the next six months. the game simply doesn't provide enough of anything It will be lucky to have more than 10k of subscribers when WAR, AoC and The Alike Come Out.. |
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Greyhawk4x4
 Advanced Member
Joined: 1/26/06
-Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy. - Ben Franklin |
4/25/07 9:35:42 AM#38
Originally posted by Xiahou_Ziao I think you under estimate the loyal followers of Tolkien and anything relating to it. If you take that into consideration along with the extremely reasonable pricing for those who pre-ordered, this game will easily maintain at least a 100k subscriber base. |
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Cabe2323
Novice Member
Joined: 8/03/06
The nine most terrifying words are: I''m from the government and I''m here to help. -Reagan |
4/25/07 9:37:21 AM#39
Originally posted by Xiahou_Ziao Lol Lucky to have 10k ? That is just plain silly. MXO and AO both have more then 10K and they launched horribly. Heck DDO even has more then this. Currently playing: Looking Foward too: |
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4/25/07 9:45:25 AM#40
Silly? Not really, sure they have a loyal fanbase and they will have all those whom have lifetime subscriptions, but the game aims at a very specific audienceof people, which in my opinion is dangerous. The game can really go only one way and thats more content, hell even a novice programmer could slap a little land together and sling in a quest or two, The game is poorly put together and lacks allot of things, is there anything special that will keep people there? Oh yes, quests lots of quests, quests that you find in every other game. and when there done? wait for the next content update i guess? how exciting. but i suspect that appeals to some people.. |
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