I was reading Tobold's MMORPG blog and he guessed around 200k subscribers for LOTRO to start out.

http://tobolds.blogspot.com/2007/03/calibrating-my-crystal-ball.html

I'm sure it will grow beyond that, very smooth release so far. What you think?

If you think it's more, or less than the options here there is another poll later on, just vote once!

Originally posted by Quingu
that this is BS since Turbine announced  600k pre-orders one month ago.

Originally posted by homeskillet
200k to start out the first few months but it should grow to the 500-600k mark after the game settles. I expect something similar to the EQ2 population.

Anyone expecting LOTRO to top WoW is in denial.

Originally posted by Svayvti
They had 600k pre-orders before open beta even started, which topped well over 600k open beta accounts.

Plus an aggressive release which will feature the MMO even in walmart so every complete noob can pick it up.
Yet you seriously think nobody is going to buy the game, nobody from open beta will stay, and a 3rd of the pre-orders will quit... because?

This is no buggy launch like vanguard, saga of ryzom, AO, Horizons, etc.

LotRO might not be bigger than WoW, but it is guaranteed to be in a subscriber category alone with it.

I wouldn't take the guy too seriously. But he does bring up some interesting points. Reasons people would preorder and not subscribe could be many. This poll/thread was only for the first number we will hear from Turbine on how many subscribers there are.

I'll add some options, only vote once please.

The brand name will sell it in the millions, or not at all. Either it will sit at a respectable 250K or it will skyrocket up in the millions.

Quality is not the only watermark of a successful product. Recognition is an extremely powerful marketing entity. If you can bind the two together, you get the license to print your own money like Blizzard was able to do.

LOTRO is capable of this feat. We'll just have to see how the general public (meaning, people who do not read this website) feel about it.

In six months, Lord of the Rings Online will reach a MINIMUM of 3 MILLION subscribers. Just watch. Laugh now. Flame now. Whatever. But wait the six months and come back and throw this in my face if I am wrong.

- Zaxx

this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k

Well as of now there are 18 servers.  If you figure roughly 20k capacity for a server (not logged capacity), then you have a number up around 360k right now as a ballpark.  Even being conservative, they probably have over 300k subs.

I'm willing to bet it will grow as well.

Originally posted by DeadJester

this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k

 

A clue for you: LOTR universe/lore is many many years old and known by billions.

There is no such thing as EQ/Warcraft/Warhammer/etc lore outside the computer and the roleplay world - which is a couple million ppl at BEST.

DB

Originally posted by DonnieBrasco

Originally posted by DeadJester

this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k

 

A clue for you: LOTR universe/lore is many many years old and known by billions.

There is no such thing as EQ/Warcraft/Warhammer/etc lore outside the computer and the roleplay world - which is a couple million ppl at BEST.

DB

Originally posted by DeadJester

Originally posted by DonnieBrasco

Originally posted by DeadJester

this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k

 

A clue for you: LOTR universe/lore is many many years old and known by billions.

There is no such thing as EQ/Warcraft/Warhammer/etc lore outside the computer and the roleplay world - which is a couple million ppl at BEST.

DB

and what does that have to do with the online game?  Star wars has the same kind of fan base so does Dungens and Dragons so what your point just because the IP is good and is known  by BILLIONS doesnt  mean a BILLION players will play it

Noone was talking about a billion players.

Wow has broadened the MMOG genre and LOTR has a huge fanbase. (DnD fanbase don't make me laugh trying to compare :)) This is their chance to jump in.

BTW a beautiful, solid, fun to play and very accessible game should have more than 500k subscribers on its own merits, no need for a huge IP anyway...

DB

Originally posted by DonnieBrasco

Originally posted by DeadJester

Originally posted by DonnieBrasco

Originally posted by DeadJester

this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k

 

A clue for you: LOTR universe/lore is many many years old and known by billions.

There is no such thing as EQ/Warcraft/Warhammer/etc lore outside the computer and the roleplay world - which is a couple million ppl at BEST.

DB

and what does that have to do with the online game?  Star wars has the same kind of fan base so does Dungens and Dragons so what your point just because the IP is good and is known  by BILLIONS doesnt  mean a BILLION players will play it

Noone was talking about a billion players.

Wow has broadened the MMOG genre and LOTR has a huge fanbase. (DnD fanbase don't make me laugh trying to compare :)) This is their chance to jump in.

BTW a beautiful, solid, fun to play and very accessible game should have more than 500k subscribers on its own merits, no need for a huge IP anyway...

DB