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Originally posted by baphamet

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Originally posted by sebbonx

Originally posted by baphamet

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yeah , isn't it ironic that most of the things he is ranting about in that post is true in every mmorpg? you would think any post saying anything negative about vanguard is "brilliant" jonaku, even though this gem is just a steaming POS saying absolutely nothing we haven't heard or seen before in every mmorpg.

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Actually you have a good point here, every game so far released is pretty itemcentric, how about someone breaking the mold? WAR maybe the first to do it, even if you have all the best items, 2 or 3 can bring you down due to the "ganging up rule" in Warhammer. Beware 10 goblins jumping your Godly butt, you may kill 4 or 5, but you will be powned.

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are you kidding me? we actually agree on something? i am in total agreement with you here....i would love a good game that isn't item-centric, where you can buy currency online, where you are unable to "twink" a character so badly that anyone with regular gear within your level range stands no chance in pvp.

i just haven't seen a game like that, that interest me yet. i have seen concepts that are good like DFO and i am also keeping a very close eye on warhammer.

but as far as games being released soon there are none, by all means...please make a game that breaks out of this mold. i will be right along side you playing it, until then i will be looking forward to vanguard and WAR since they are the two games that interest me ATM.

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You guys are entirely to hung up on this raid thing.

A word of advice, start looking at some of the OTHER info besides the raids. This gameworld is going to huge and it will be able to accomodate almost any playstyle. If you want to play a left handed basket weaver with one eye, you may have problems, OK?

As for the freedom comment...please, they are talking about within the scope of the game, come off it already. Of course there are going to be limitations. Its common sense.

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Originally posted by Amathe

In Vanguard's advertisements, they are emphasizing the word "freedom" to market the game. I can sort of understand how they came up with this. There are a lot of professions and classes. It is a zoneless world. But most importantly a lot of the "rules" some people complained of in EQ2 are absent in Vanguard. So it's not complete crap.

But as all things with this game, they cannot stick to truths and have to resort to half truths that become outright lies. The ads go on to say how you  can fly on a dragon (and similar examples). Now technically this is true. But what the ad doesn't say is you can do these things if, and only if, you spend a zillion hours playing the game and are among the elite few ever to be able to do that.

It is wrong to characterize that as freedom.  It's like saying you can go to Washington DC and have dinner with the President. Yes, you can, if you are a governor or a congressman or if you donate $50,000 to a political party. So in a technical sense you have the freedom to do this but in any ordinary sense you do not. These things are flat out untrue from the point of view of the average player who purchases the product in reliance on those ads and thinks they will ever really get to do these things. Dragon mounts are for the self styled elite few, and everyone else is just suppoed to keep paying a subscription fee for the privilege of admiring people who have one lol. That's the Vision (tm).

This is just another example of my biggest problem with Vanguard. I don't really care how they make the game. Their choices all become considerations for whether I will play it or not, in this case, not. But here we have a game that is one thing that is being marketed as another thing because the first thing isn't very popular. I put these guys in the same category as Mourning. Not that the game is vaporware, because it isn't, but because they have no scruples in what they say about it to get people to buy it.

Why don't they just tell the truth? If the game is as good as some of the posters in this forum believe it is, what harm could come to the game from telling the truth about it? I propose that they ad a disclaimer to the box:

This game is intended to be enjoyed by people who devote 5 or more hours a day to playing videogames. If you are not such a person you can still play this game, but you will have a very weak character who will only be able to experience a fraction of the game content and will never be able to enjoy many of the game rewards.

So I ask you, why run from the truth if the game is so good? Why put out ads touting freedom that is 95% illusory? Unless by freedom they mean in a Janice Joplin sense, where "freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

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Originally posted by n2sooners

Sounds more like an MMOFPS to me, but I am really surprised nothing along those lines has been tried yet because I think it could be a hit.

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possibly yeah, like the darkfall concept....it can still be a fantasy setting with twitch style combat. a game where crafting and pvp is the only way to get gear....and if you lose your gear it is easily replaceable.

i think there is a reason why we don't have a game like that yet, i don't think it would be easy to make a game like darkfall even for a huge established company like soe or blizzard.

witch is why i think darkfall may never be released and even if it is it probably wont be anywhere near as good as it potentially could be, at least not for a while after release where they can fix it with subscription revenues.

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Originally posted by Amathe

Answer: Most Vanguard servers will be PvE only.

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Yes, most. Just like WoW, and basically every level based MMORPG ever.

Also, you have no idea whether higher level characters buffs will stick to lowbie characters in the release version, unless you're psychic. You also have no clue as to whether a higher level player can heal you without stealing exp. Also, name one game where you can't sit in a group within xp range and leech exp.

Name one non-twitch game where gear is a non-factor.

Vanguard players definitely do want a challenge, that's a big issue with them and you won't be able to solo your way to level 60 to be sure. Playing in a good group to defeat powerful enemies IS a challenge. Have you ever tried a pickup group in a game you can't solo in? It's a crapshoot at the best of times and you know it. That's a challenge.

Keep on trying though Amathe. I have fun responding to and debunking your posts, but just like my desire to play Vanguard, I hope you will try and make it more challenging.

BTW, what is the source of your pitiable need for attention?

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Originally posted by jonaku

This is a brilliant polemic against the hypocracy of the vanboi l33thardcoreraider community.

10/10

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Originally posted by Amathe

In Vanguard's advertisements, they are emphasizing the word "freedom" to market the game. I can sort of understand how they came up with this. There are a lot of professions and classes. It is a zoneless world. But most importantly a lot of the "rules" some people complained of in EQ2 are absent in Vanguard. So it's not complete crap.

But as all things with this game, they cannot stick to truths and have to resort to half truths that become outright lies. The ads go on to say how you  can fly on a dragon (and similar examples). Now technically this is true. But what the ad doesn't say is you can do these things if, and only if, you spend a zillion hours playing the game and are among the elite few ever to be able to do that.

It is wrong to characterize that as freedom.  It's like saying you can go to Washington DC and have dinner with the President. Yes, you can, if you are a governor or a congressman or if you donate $50,000 to a political party. So in a technical sense you have the freedom to do this but in any ordinary sense you do not. These things are flat out untrue from the point of view of the average player who purchases the product in reliance on those ads and thinks they will ever really get to do these things. Dragon mounts are for the self styled elite few, and everyone else is just suppoed to keep paying a subscription fee for the privilege of admiring people who have one lol. That's the Vision (tm).

This is just another example of my biggest problem with Vanguard. I don't really care how they make the game. Their choices all become considerations for whether I will play it or not, in this case, not. But here we have a game that is one thing that is being marketed as another thing because the first thing isn't very popular. I put these guys in the same category as Mourning. Not that the game is vaporware, because it isn't, but because they have no scruples in what they say about it to get people to buy it.

Why don't they just tell the truth? If the game is as good as some of the posters in this forum believe it is, what harm could come to the game from telling the truth about it? I propose that they ad a disclaimer to the box:

This game is intended to be enjoyed by people who devote 5 or more hours a day to playing videogames. If you are not such a person you can still play this game, but you will have a very weak character who will only be able to experience a fraction of the game content and will never be able to enjoy many of the game rewards.

So I ask you, why run from the truth if the game is so good? Why put out ads touting freedom that is 95% illusory? Unless by freedom they mean in a Janice Joplin sense, where "freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

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First...please read the FAQ and read about the game- http://www.silkyvenom.com/pages/faq.php

If you dont want to look i brought up a few quotes from the FAQ :)

"To bring back to the genre a challenging and rewarding environment -- removing tedium and frustration (which we certainly aim to do) does not mean a game necessarily has to be easy."

"One of our big goals is bring back the challenge we feel is being abandoned in MMOGs as of late, but without the tedium. We want travel to be fun. We want exploration to be key and for you feel compelled and then rewarded for exploring and traveling"

       "We will have areas that are more geared for one of these categories: casual, group, and raid. The casual areas will require less of a contiguous time commitment and you won't need a full group. The grouping areas, well, require you to group. Think classic, old school grouping. Then the raid areas, well that's pretty obvious"

"Both risk and reward will be present, however, so one shouldn't expect to see as much of a reward in casual areas vs. group areas. It's something to do when you have less time, and it should be fun, but you're not going to get the fiery scimitar of ultimate doom in a casual region."

"Basically, we want to remove as much tedium and barriers to entry as possible. But, and this is key, we strongly feel this is NOT mutually exclusive with making a darn hard and challenging game. Battles will be tough. NPC AI will be smart. Lots of group tactics will be used, with even more collaboration then you've probably seen before, and an even more visceral feel."

"Anyway, tough, yes. Rewarding, yes. Challenging, yes. Tedious, hopefully no. Camping, minimized the best we can. Travel, fun and dangerous in and of itself. Needing to group and work with others to really advance optimally and get the phat lewtz, yes."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I agree with what your saying, but i mean most people that are into mmorpgs probably go onto the internet and research about it. There are people who do just see the ad and go out and buy it b/c it looks so great. Yea they may be dissapointed but usually you would do your research about the game before you buy it.

~Jak

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Originally posted by Delzo

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Originally posted by Amathe

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But what you don't realize is that fact, the very point you make, is one of the primary things that powergamers hate about other mmos. It's not enough that they have nice things. It's not enough that they got them before you did. They want to have something and you not have it. Brad is very in tune with this sentiment. He knows there are a lot of frustrated hardcore gamers out there who are tired of getting a reward, only to see Joe Lunchpail gamer get it too, albeit much later. That is the very beating heart of the Vision and the overarching game design - hardcore players will have things and you will not have them; not now, not ever.

LOL. Guess what, if these "hardcore gamers" don't want me to have stuff, that's their problem. I will make a good attempt and if I don't get some piece of loot, I won't cry over it. It's all about the experience and time with friends, not being uber or l33t. Maybe it is to them, but not me. I play to have fun.

You seem very concerned with what you believe is a lack of freedom. Know what? If they can do it, anyone can. That's freedom. Nobody ever said you get a dragon at level 5. If you did, it would mean another easy game that gave everything away. Level cap in two weeks and everyone has the epic loot. If that happened, I wouldn't play. I want a challenge, even if it's one that I never overcome.

That is why I posted. If you are one of these people who think that "well, it may take me longer but I will get there and have the nice items someday, I just need to stick with it", you are in for a rude awakening. Your presence in the game is to pay for the game so the players Brad relates to can enjoy it. That's it.

If you play the game and feel like you are footing the bill for the l33t crowd, that's how you feel. I, on the other hand, will have fun and not stress over whether or not I'm keeping up with the Jones'. If putting in a million hours and tons of gold for an uber chest piece makes them feel elite, ok, good for them. I'm not stressing over it.

There's another thing you are forgetting. Friends and community. Even if there's not one more thing for me to do, I can always get together with friends and make our own fun, travel, explore, hang out, whatever.

There are so many easy MMO games out right now, with more on the way, that I'm glad someone had the gazoonas enough to put out a challenging game, even if it means missing out on the mainstream WoW crowd. Too many developers are fighting for those customers and I believe that Sigil will actually have a larger market going this way than if they joined the fray and chased WoW with everyone else.

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My response above in red. This is my opinion and I take nothing away from you, or your opinion. You are entitled to it.

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Originally posted by dink


1.  Have you ever played Final Fantasy XI?  While I hate the game's horrible xp grind and excrutiating travel times, there is content when you get really high level that is exceedingly difficult but that reaps special rewards.  There are instanced boss-fights that you enter with only your group and must beat, but doing so yeilds great rewards.  If you are above the suggested level of the content, they de-level you to the content's difficulty level, and this includes making gear that is above your level non-functioning.  In this way, they are able to create really difficult encounters where players must not only work together with their group but have a strategy and really make it work.  As with raid bosses, you can look up strategies on how to beat them, and honestly it isn't that tough if you know what you are doing - but it does provide excitement and rewards that are skill based instead of being completley effortful.

I love that idea and think it's just really kewl, but difficulty is a timesink. Takes you more tries, more gear, more shots at forming a sweet group. However, I'm not afraid of a timesink, especially a difficulty one. I revel in a challenge, and the higher the difficulty, the greater my resolve to accomplish said task.

2.  Guild Wars has skill-based PvP.  The thing with Vanguard is that it uses a "tiers of loot" model and thus will never have players on an even playing field such that these tests of skill are possible.  In fact, Guild Wars' PvE game is also extremely difficult if you do not have a group of players who work well together and know how to play.  It is also exceedingly easy to access - though difficult to master.

Very true, although I would hasten to add that part of the thrill with an item-centric combat model is the actual obtaining of the loot. Getting an amazing drop on a PVP server is a crown of honor. Although I'm a huge fan of full corpse looting in PVP. Please Sigil have the nads to make one server like that! I doubt it highly but it's still my wish.

3.  Look at every adventure game ever made and their boss fights.  While some of them like Megaman are really twitchy, there are other games like the Legend of Zelda where it is imperative to learn HOW to beat a boss.  Again, this information will be leaked on the net, but that's okay.  Those of us who want challenges will still beat it ourselves.

Love that stuff, even though learning a boss' tactics is still just a time sink. Takes time to learn it. In fact, the argument can be made that any type of extra difficulty is a time sink.

It's a big problem with MMO design.  How do you reward players at end levels through tests of skill with full knowledge that the very natue of the game lends itself towards people cheating and helping each other figure out any puzzles you make.  Honestly, I think you just have to design it as if people won't cheat and forget abou the rest.  Also, make it difficult even if you know the trick.  WoW actually does a really good job of this with many of their endgame raid mobs - but the problem is that you have to raid to get to them.  If they made the rewards for the raids that aren't 40-mans just as good as the ones that are 40-man raids then I think people wouldn't have a problem with them.

This is the age old risk vs. reward argument. A case can be made for either side, but for a boss to be difficult he has to hit harder, have better tactics or more hp. Sometimes it takes 40 or more people to take out a super bad boy boss. Imagine 200+ person chaotic raids lol now that would be insane. I am not a fan of 8 hour raids, in fact I loathe them, but a 4 hour or under raid to do something really amazing I don't mind.

However, Vanguard is  doing this.  They have stated very clearly that they will split up the absolute highest tier items among different playstyles so that you literally have to do EVERYTHING to get the best loot.  Now they may be tricking us and still requiring raiding by putting all the best weapons only in raiding and then just small or insignificant peices of gear in the solo and crafting portions, but we don't know that.  I tend to think that this is the case because without the best loot in the game, most people won't raid.  It's a pain and most people would never raid again if not for the loot.

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Originally posted by Torak

A word of advice, start looking at some of the OTHER info besides the raids. This gameworld is going to huge and it will be able to accomodate almost any playstyle.

As for the freedom comment...please, they are talking about within the scope of the game, come off it already. Of course there are going to be limitations. Its common sense.

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Well, there is no freedom.  You HAVE to raid, to tradeskill and to commit to EVERY aspect they want to enforce.  Huge mean nothing if you HAVE to be doing everything, been a generalist that master everything, yet you have a class and are by definition a specialist.  Asking specialists to be generalists, that Raid, Tradeskill, do the diplomacy stuff, get that, go there...that is ENFORCING, a total lack of freedom.

Aradune usually focus on words his project lack.  Lack of Freedom is more precise then freedom.  FREEDOM would be to have the choice to either PvP, or to Raid, or to Tradeskill, or to group in a LDoN-way in order to gain exactly the same reward, now THAT would be freedom...but since every item is linked to a PRECISE and rigid activity, it is a complete LACK of freedom.

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Originally posted by Anofalye

Well, there is no freedom.  You HAVE to raid, to tradeskill and to commit to EVERY aspect they want to enforce.  Huge mean nothing if you HAVE to be doing everything, been a generalist that master everything, yet you have a class and are by definition a specialist.  Asking specialists to be generalists, that Raid, Tradeskill, do the diplomacy stuff, get that, go there...that is ENFORCING, a total lack of freedom.

Everything you just wrote applies to all MMO's

Aradune usually focus on words his project lack.  Lack of Freedom is more precise then freedom.  FREEDOM would be to have the choice to either PvP, or to Raid, or to Tradeskill, or to group in a LDoN-way in order to gain exactly the same reward, now THAT would be freedom...but since every item is linked to a PRECISE and rigid activity, it is a complete LACK of freedom.

I believe they are talking about freedom within the context of the game. The freedom to choose what you want to do.

WoW is the best example of a game with Zero freedom. Wow, you are in fact, forced to raid. If you don't you have no option but to reroll or stop playing. Simple as that.

Speculate how you want, Vanguard will have a far more "open" play environment then most of the new games. I'm not convienced myself that Vanguard will be "all that". By leaving out PvP they sack a great portion of "freedom" and choice. (not advocating FFA either) A world without conflict is a static world. Thats what you are going to get, a huge static world somewhat like EQII with nothing going on it but a new boss mob showing up every now and then, 

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Originally posted by Amathe

In Vanguard's advertisements, they are emphasizing the word "freedom" to market the game. I can sort of understand how they came up with this. There are a lot of professions and classes. It is a zoneless world. But most importantly a lot of the "rules" some people complained of in EQ2 are absent in Vanguard. So it's not complete crap.

But as all things with this game, they cannot stick to truths and have to resort to half truths that become outright lies. The ads go on to say how you  can fly on a dragon (and similar examples). Now technically this is true. But what the ad doesn't say is you can do these things if, and only if, you spend a zillion hours playing the game and are among the elite few ever to be able to do that.

It is wrong to characterize that as freedom.  It's like saying you can go to Washington DC and have dinner with the President. Yes, you can, if you are a governor or a congressman or if you donate $50,000 to a political party. So in a technical sense you have the freedom to do this but in any ordinary sense you do not. These things are flat out untrue from the point of view of the average player who purchases the product in reliance on those ads and thinks they will ever really get to do these things. Dragon mounts are for the self styled elite few, and everyone else is just suppoed to keep paying a subscription fee for the privilege of admiring people who have one lol. That's the Vision (tm).

This is just another example of my biggest problem with Vanguard. I don't really care how they make the game. Their choices all become considerations for whether I will play it or not, in this case, not. But here we have a game that is one thing that is being marketed as another thing because the first thing isn't very popular. I put these guys in the same category as Mourning. Not that the game is vaporware, because it isn't, but because they have no scruples in what they say about it to get people to buy it.

Why don't they just tell the truth? If the game is as good as some of the posters in this forum believe it is, what harm could come to the game from telling the truth about it? I propose that they ad a disclaimer to the box:

This game is intended to be enjoyed by people who devote 5 or more hours a day to playing videogames. If you are not such a person you can still play this game, but you will have a very weak character who will only be able to experience a fraction of the game content and will never be able to enjoy many of the game rewards.

So I ask you, why run from the truth if the game is so good? Why put out ads touting freedom that is 95% illusory? Unless by freedom they mean in a Janice Joplin sense, where "freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

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It's the big MMOG for this Winter that offers a seamless world, horses and ships and flying mounts that aren't on rails anywhere in the world, content for casual, group, and raid, content for people with differing play styles, player housing, unmatched character customization, different spheres of advancement including Diplomacy, and much more (see other posts, the FAQ, interviews, write-ups, etc.)

What does this all mean?  It means Vanguard has more freedom for you, the player, in the game world, and a lot more things for you to do than the other big games out there right now.  So I think our new motto is quite appropriate. 

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Originally posted by Torak

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Originally posted by Anofalye

Well, there is no freedom.  You HAVE to raid, to tradeskill and to commit to EVERY aspect they want to enforce.  Huge mean nothing if you HAVE to be doing everything, been a generalist that master everything, yet you have a class and are by definition a specialist.  Asking specialists to be generalists, that Raid, Tradeskill, do the diplomacy stuff, get that, go there...that is ENFORCING, a total lack of freedom.

Everything you just wrote applies to all MMO's

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It applies neither to CoV, neither to HJ.

Although it is a bit early, I also think that Stargate and BioWare MMOs will be really "free" on this aspect as well, yet for Stargate and BioWare, we are still a tadbit early.

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Originally posted by Aradune

It's the big MMOG for this Winter that offers a seamless world, horses and ships and flying mounts that aren't on rails anywhere in the world, content for casual, group, and raid, content for people with differing play styles, player housing, unmatched character customization, different spheres of advancement including Diplomacy, and much more (see other posts, the FAQ, interviews, write-ups, etc.)

What does this all mean?  It means Vanguard has more freedom for you, the player, in the game world, and a lot more things for you to do than the other big games out there right now.  So I think our new motto is quite appropriate. 

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Well I can appreciate that

What my primary concern is as follows.

I have no bone to pick with a PvE focused game. I feel that with strong content an MMO can do very well without PvP.

So my question/concern is this: How will Vanguards content measure up to what is out there right now? Will it be simplistic kill task and fetch chores or will it be lore/story/quest driven. Will it have any sort of dynamic element? Will it give the basic building block of RPG's, choice with consequence?

Yes, the freedom to move about and a vast world by any means is nice and I'm a sucker for vast seamless worlds,  but what good is it if all you do is "fly" your mount to the next "go kill 10 rats" quest?

Given that Vanguard is based primarily on PvE what will seperate it from its peers other then flashy "stuff"? Will a diplomat spawn in the same place as a warrior and be forced to travel a similar linear route? Will class choice truely affect the players role in the world or fill a simple role in a combat group.

I can already log onto dozens of games with simple kill task as the primary content, I don't see much about how Vanguards content will be DIFFERENT.

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Originally posted by jonaku

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Originally posted by Amathe

In Vanguard's advertisements, they are emphasizing the word "freedom" to market the game. I can sort of understand how they came up with this. There are a lot of professions and classes. It is a zoneless world. But most importantly a lot of the "rules" some people complained of in EQ2 are absent in Vanguard. So it's not complete crap.

But as all things with this game, they cannot stick to truths and have to resort to half truths that become outright lies. The ads go on to say how you  can fly on a dragon (and similar examples). Now technically this is true. But what the ad doesn't say is you can do these things if, and only if, you spend a zillion hours playing the game and are among the elite few ever to be able to do that.

It is wrong to characterize that as freedom.  It's like saying you can go to Washington DC and have dinner with the President. Yes, you can, if you are a governor or a congressman or if you donate $50,000 to a political party. So in a technical sense you have the freedom to do this but in any ordinary sense you do not. These things are flat out untrue from the point of view of the average player who purchases the product in reliance on those ads and thinks they will ever really get to do these things. Dragon mounts are for the self styled elite few, and everyone else is just suppoed to keep paying a subscription fee for the privilege of admiring people who have one lol. That's the Vision (tm).

This is just another example of my biggest problem with Vanguard. I don't really care how they make the game. Their choices all become considerations for whether I will play it or not, in this case, not. But here we have a game that is one thing that is being marketed as another thing because the first thing isn't very popular. I put these guys in the same category as Mourning. Not that the game is vaporware, because it isn't, but because they have no scruples in what they say about it to get people to buy it.

Why don't they just tell the truth? If the game is as good as some of the posters in this forum believe it is, what harm could come to the game from telling the truth about it? I propose that they ad a disclaimer to the box:

This game is intended to be enjoyed by people who devote 5 or more hours a day to playing videogames. If you are not such a person you can still play this game, but you will have a very weak character who will only be able to experience a fraction of the game content and will never be able to enjoy many of the game rewards.

So I ask you, why run from the truth if the game is so good? Why put out ads touting freedom that is 95% illusory? Unless by freedom they mean in a Janice Joplin sense, where "freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

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You speak truth. 

They should make this post a sticky.

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actually no, its not the truth. what he is saying is that "i want all the rewards you obtain by playing the game as soon as i log in." why then, would you ever play the game. Show me where it says that the only way to obtain a flying mount will b to spend hour on hour raiding. i can garauntee you wont find it in any of the canguard lit. You jonaku may find it by linking an argument based on a post you yourself made.

rewards like the mount will be obtainable by everyone, and yes, you will actually have to play the game to get the reward.

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Originally posted by Aradune

flying mounts that aren't on rails anywhere in the world

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Originally posted by Amathe

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Originally posted by Aradune

flying mounts that aren't on rails anywhere in the world

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What percentage of your players would you estimate will  have one of these, and within what time frame? Obviously it will be a rough prediction, but then you have many years of experience in the industry, a ton of market research on your prospective players, and the fact that you made the game to base that rough prediction on. So as long as Sigil is promoting the game in part based on this feature, and if this is an example of "freedom", why not go ahead and tell them how many can reasonably expect to ever get one.

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Originally posted by Amathe

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Originally posted by Aradune

flying mounts that aren't on rails anywhere in the world

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What percentage of your players would you estimate will  have one of these, and within what time frame? Obviously it will be a rough prediction, but then you have many years of experience in the industry, a ton of market research on your prospective players, and the fact that you made the game to base that rough prediction on. So as long as Sigil is promoting the game in part based on this feature, and if this is an example of "freedom", why not go ahead and tell them how many can reasonably expect to ever get one.

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A fair (if very sarcastically worded) question.  To my understanding you can't even try to get one until level 40.  Given the variety of flying mounts we've seen from videos already: swamp drake, a purple "fairy drake" (what it looks like to me), a roc (giant eagle), and a griffon I would wager there is more than one way to get a flying mount.  Just like there is more than one way to get a horse.

But think about this...pretty much EVERYONE is likely to have a horse by level 10.  And some as early as level 6 (though a diplomacy quest).

IF (and that's a big if) that same kind of philosphy follows suit it would only make sense that after you hit 40 a few different choices will open up to aquiring flying mounts and as you get higher in level it will just get easier, much like getting your first land mount. 

I'm curious myself if this is actually the case.