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General Discussion  » ESO Sales Compared to GW2 & SWTOR

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101 posts found
  Aeonblades

Hard Core Member

Joined: 10/12/12
Posts: 2123

4/25/14 11:18:16 AM#81
Originally posted by rodingo
Originally posted by Shephard
Originally posted by MyownGod
Originally posted by Shephard

The goal of an MMO should not be to peak like SWTOR and GW2 during launch, and then go on a free fall downfall a month after.  I think this will happen with ESO too, but it will be hard to beat the SWTOR/GW2 downfall that happened within a month.

Google Trends GW2/SWTOR/FFXIV/Rift Downfall

hahaha interesting point, it'll be a 'miracle' if ESO do beat swtor and gw2. See what I did there? Miracle? Because Diehard ESO fans are like those extreme religious people, with their blind faith.

The point was SWTOR and GW2 sold well but flopped within a month.  ESO can either not sell as well as those two and flop just as hard as those MMOs.  Or actually sell less and rise because of console sales.  Regardless, the next couple of months should be interesting.

Edit: Slightly off topic but the sad part of the chart is WildStar has so little interest it doesn't even register on Google as a Online Game.

GW2 flopped within a month?  That's weird...

I wouldn't say flopped, but player interest and in game observations prove it's been in a downhill turn since release. Most zones were empty, lower WvW tiers are dead or dying. The Megaserver was a good move, but I feel as if server merges would of helped the WvW fans a lot more than a PvE Megaserver. It's standard MMO procedure these days, and I as much as anyone hope GW2 stays around and continues to make improvements to become the game it was meant to be rather than what we got dropped in our laps now.

Currently Playing: ESO and FFXIV
Have played: You name it
If you mention rose tinted glasses, you better be referring to Mitch Hedberg.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10569

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

4/25/14 11:26:44 AM#82
Originally posted by Shephard
Originally posted by lizardbones

Anyway, ignoring WoW, interest in MMORPGs, including these new games that supposedly don't hold interest, is increasing over time.

 

Well that is the MMO trend.  Big launches and massive flops a month later.  It is a shame and doesn't bode well for the future of the genre.  Eve and WoW are the only two games that saw increases after launch, the rest saw declines including massive declines in (GW2/SWTOR).

Meanwhile games like LoL and Minecraft show growth.  There is definitely  issue here.  I wonder which MMO will break that mold.  

PS: Google doesn't track data before 2004 so the UO and EQ comparison is invalid.

 

Where did the idea that each individual MMORPG must grow interest over time, forever?  It's not from older MMORPGs, unless you are looking at WoW.  The newer games generate interest much faster, and the hold more interest longer than older MMORPGs.

 

Here's the chart for LoL, Minecraft and DOTA2 for the curious.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F04n3w2r%2C%20%2Fm%2F0dlkwn1%2C%20%2Fm%2F09v6kpg&cmpt=q

Very interesting, except it looks like the games have plateaued.

 

What's happening here is that you're calling normal behavior "bad".  Most video games generate a lot of interest very quickly, and then decline.  Especially MMORPGs.  There are some games that do not follow this trend, but you'll notice those games do something brand new, or are the first of a particular kind of game to become very popular.  This too is pretty normal.

 

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  venats

Novice Member

Joined: 2/27/14
Posts: 108

4/25/14 11:27:55 AM#83
Originally posted by Aeonblades
Originally posted by rodingo
Originally posted by Shephard
Originally posted by MyownGod
Originally posted by Shephard

The goal of an MMO should not be to peak like SWTOR and GW2 during launch, and then go on a free fall downfall a month after.  I think this will happen with ESO too, but it will be hard to beat the SWTOR/GW2 downfall that happened within a month.

Google Trends GW2/SWTOR/FFXIV/Rift Downfall

hahaha interesting point, it'll be a 'miracle' if ESO do beat swtor and gw2. See what I did there? Miracle? Because Diehard ESO fans are like those extreme religious people, with their blind faith.

The point was SWTOR and GW2 sold well but flopped within a month.  ESO can either not sell as well as those two and flop just as hard as those MMOs.  Or actually sell less and rise because of console sales.  Regardless, the next couple of months should be interesting.

Edit: Slightly off topic but the sad part of the chart is WildStar has so little interest it doesn't even register on Google as a Online Game.

GW2 flopped within a month?  That's weird...

I wouldn't say flopped, but player interest and in game observations prove it's been in a downhill turn since release. Most zones were empty, lower WvW tiers are dead or dying. The Megaserver was a good move, but I feel as if server merges would of helped the WvW fans a lot more than a PvE Megaserver. It's standard MMO procedure these days, and I as much as anyone hope GW2 stays around and continues to make improvements to become the game it was meant to be rather than what we got dropped in our laps now.

Lower WvW tiers were always empty, even at launch. Merging WvW in anything but the bottom of bottom tiers would be a catastrophe, and is downright impossible on EU because every language has a heavily populated server and a not so populated but still active server or two. Merge them and people can't play, merge them and you kill the entire lower-central GvG tier that is on purpose on low-tier maps to avoid queues.

GW2 has been financially profitable for its entire lifespan, and at the end of the day that is what matters. Its stable, just like its predecessor.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10569

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

4/25/14 11:29:19 AM#84
Originally posted by Aeonblades
Originally posted by rodingo
Originally posted by Shephard
Originally posted by MyownGod
Originally posted by Shephard

The goal of an MMO should not be to peak like SWTOR and GW2 during launch, and then go on a free fall downfall a month after.  I think this will happen with ESO too, but it will be hard to beat the SWTOR/GW2 downfall that happened within a month.

Google Trends GW2/SWTOR/FFXIV/Rift Downfall

hahaha interesting point, it'll be a 'miracle' if ESO do beat swtor and gw2. See what I did there? Miracle? Because Diehard ESO fans are like those extreme religious people, with their blind faith.

The point was SWTOR and GW2 sold well but flopped within a month.  ESO can either not sell as well as those two and flop just as hard as those MMOs.  Or actually sell less and rise because of console sales.  Regardless, the next couple of months should be interesting.

Edit: Slightly off topic but the sad part of the chart is WildStar has so little interest it doesn't even register on Google as a Online Game.

GW2 flopped within a month?  That's weird...

I wouldn't say flopped, but player interest and in game observations prove it's been in a downhill turn since release. Most zones were empty, lower WvW tiers are dead or dying. The Megaserver was a good move, but I feel as if server merges would of helped the WvW fans a lot more than a PvE Megaserver. It's standard MMO procedure these days, and I as much as anyone hope GW2 stays around and continues to make improvements to become the game it was meant to be rather than what we got dropped in our laps now.

 

Except GW2's "decline" stage exceeds the steady state stage for most MMORPGs.  What good is it to have some "slow growth" or "constant growth" if the size of the MMORPG is tiny?

 

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Aeonblades

Hard Core Member

Joined: 10/12/12
Posts: 2123

4/25/14 11:30:25 AM#85
Originally posted by venats
Originally posted by Aeonblades
Originally posted by rodingo
Originally posted by Shephard
Originally posted by MyownGod
Originally posted by Shephard

The goal of an MMO should not be to peak like SWTOR and GW2 during launch, and then go on a free fall downfall a month after.  I think this will happen with ESO too, but it will be hard to beat the SWTOR/GW2 downfall that happened within a month.

Google Trends GW2/SWTOR/FFXIV/Rift Downfall

hahaha interesting point, it'll be a 'miracle' if ESO do beat swtor and gw2. See what I did there? Miracle? Because Diehard ESO fans are like those extreme religious people, with their blind faith.

The point was SWTOR and GW2 sold well but flopped within a month.  ESO can either not sell as well as those two and flop just as hard as those MMOs.  Or actually sell less and rise because of console sales.  Regardless, the next couple of months should be interesting.

Edit: Slightly off topic but the sad part of the chart is WildStar has so little interest it doesn't even register on Google as a Online Game.

GW2 flopped within a month?  That's weird...

I wouldn't say flopped, but player interest and in game observations prove it's been in a downhill turn since release. Most zones were empty, lower WvW tiers are dead or dying. The Megaserver was a good move, but I feel as if server merges would of helped the WvW fans a lot more than a PvE Megaserver. It's standard MMO procedure these days, and I as much as anyone hope GW2 stays around and continues to make improvements to become the game it was meant to be rather than what we got dropped in our laps now.

Lower WvW tiers were always empty, even at launch. Merging WvW in anything but the bottom of bottom tiers would be a catastrophe, and is downright impossible on EU because every language has a heavily populated server and a not so populated but still active server or two. Merge them and people can't play, merge them and you kill the entire lower-central GvG tier that is on purpose on low-tier maps to avoid queues.

GW2 has been financially profitable for its entire lifespan, and at the end of the day that is what matters. Its stable, just like its predecessor.

A fine point and one worthy of thought. I can respect that view. I just feel like a lot of GW fans were let down by the release and at the end of the day customer satisfaction is worth more to a company than a larger profit margin.

 

You may very well be right in saying empty lower tiers is a good thing though.

Currently Playing: ESO and FFXIV
Have played: You name it
If you mention rose tinted glasses, you better be referring to Mitch Hedberg.

  Shephard

Novice Member

Joined: 4/18/14
Posts: 71

4/25/14 11:31:30 AM#86
Originally posted by lizardbones

Except GW2's "decline" stage exceeds the steady state stage for most MMORPGs.  What good is it to have some "slow growth" or "constant growth" if the size of the MMORPG is tiny?

 

I would say the steady stage is comparable to MMOs like SWTOR.

  Nanfoodle

Elite Member

Joined: 5/23/06
Posts: 3431

4/25/14 11:34:44 AM#87
Who cares how many copies it sells? As long as there is enough players to keep the game going (mega server should do fine) and they have enough income to keep new content rolling, what does it matter? I would be more interested in the attrition of accounts. Im more worried at this point that they are able to keep the players long enough to fix things. I would be very sad if that happened as I am on the side lines not buying till they address some problems I dont want to play though!!! 
  User Deleted
4/25/14 11:36:47 AM#88
ZOS is a privately traded company, they have not released their direct sales numbers yet, that includes to 3rd party metric sites.  These numbers are only from select retail vendors that share their data, which means the discrepancy could be 500K copies... could even be just 5 copies.  Until real numbers come out can all the fan boys and hate trolls chill the F* out and stop beating a dead horse?  Any one who points to these numbers in any stance good or bad has no clue what's going on.
  CrazKanuk

Elite Member

Joined: 10/06/09
Posts: 936

4/25/14 11:38:59 AM#89

Ok, so some interesting numbers from more recent retail/digital releases:

In 2012 http://www.vgchartz.com/game/65124/world-of-warcraft-mists-of-pandaria/Global/ indicates that Mists of Pandaria sold 650k copies the first week, Blizzard announced 2.7 million.

 

In 2010 http://www.vgchartz.com/game/38102/world-of-warcraft-cataclysm/Global/ indicates Cataclysm sold 778k copies in the first week, but Blizzard announced 3.3 million copies sold in the first 24 hours!!

 

This is 2 and 4 years ago, respectively!!!!! And the difference in sales was 4 or 5 to 1!!! Digital sales have only increased, too. Especially since they don't have to pay a retailer on first-party sales. Plus, there were 4 versions of ESO sitting in the top 15 on Amazon since the pre-order was announced. The games are still in the top 100 and have been there now for 3 months!!!

 

Sorry, but the vgchartz numbers are becoming more and more outdated. It might still be applicable for console games, since that's still the main method of delivery for those, but for PC games, and especially MMOs which usually already have beta clients on their customers' PCs, it's just not accurate.  

Crazkanuk

----------------
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Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
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----------------

  Nanfoodle

Elite Member

Joined: 5/23/06
Posts: 3431

4/25/14 11:41:51 AM#90
Originally posted by Pyatra
ZOS is a privately traded company, they have not released their direct sales numbers yet, that includes to 3rd party metric sites.  These numbers are only from select retail vendors that share their data, which means the discrepancy could be 500K copies... could even be just 5 copies.  Until real numbers come out can all the fan boys and hate trolls chill the F* out and stop beating a dead horse?  Any one who points to these numbers in any stance good or bad has no clue what's going on.

When compared to other games you can only count one thing. How popular it is at launch to other games. By no means can you count its success or failure as each game needs a different amount of subs to make a profit. Its clear GW2 did better then the other 2 on the list, but again how many still play and pay is a bigger part of the numbers we dont see. Many were screaming ESO was going to sell 10-20 mill copies. From what we see there I think thats unlikely. So the numbers are good for a few things.

  Ramonski7

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 5/21/03
Posts: 2693

"A wise man has something to say, but a fool just has to say something."

4/25/14 11:45:56 AM#91
Put it this way...if the number were THAT good, Zen would have let us know by now. Obviously, the numbers didn't meet their own expectations or maybe the expectations of those who are financially vested. But I'm sure as soon as they reach a milestone, they will release something.


"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."

  Aeonblades

Hard Core Member

Joined: 10/12/12
Posts: 2123

4/25/14 11:48:20 AM#92
Originally posted by Nanfoodle
Originally posted by Pyatra
ZOS is a privately traded company, they have not released their direct sales numbers yet, that includes to 3rd party metric sites.  These numbers are only from select retail vendors that share their data, which means the discrepancy could be 500K copies... could even be just 5 copies.  Until real numbers come out can all the fan boys and hate trolls chill the F* out and stop beating a dead horse?  Any one who points to these numbers in any stance good or bad has no clue what's going on.

When compared to other games you can only count one thing. How popular it is at launch to other games. By no means can you count its success or failure as each game needs a different amount of subs to make a profit. Its clear GW2 did better then the other 2 on the list, but again how many still play and pay is a bigger part of the numbers we dont see. Many were screaming ESO was going to sell 10-20 mill copies. From what we see there I think thats unlikely. So the numbers are good for a few things.

Well to be fair even though I am admittedly a fan of ESO, I really did not expect it to sell as well as GW2 or SWToR. Star Wars is one of the biggest, if not the biggest overall IPs you can find, and GW2 not having a sub fee as well as bringing in hundreds of thousands of fans in from the original game helped boost sales as well.

I didn't really expect ESO to set any kind of sales milestones, it's a niche game for people who prefer an older style of game play with ES lore and game play.

Currently Playing: ESO and FFXIV
Have played: You name it
If you mention rose tinted glasses, you better be referring to Mitch Hedberg.

  Boraell

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/17/06
Posts: 83

4/25/14 11:48:55 AM#93
Originally posted by BeansnBread
Originally posted by Vapors
Originally posted by BeansnBread
Huh, yeah, those are really bad numbers taking into account that it is a comparison. The team that developed ESO is likely going to run into some fairly major financial difficulties soon. We'll likely start seeing reports about layoffs and whatnot just like we've seen with other games that have sold poorly initially. 

Do you work in their financial team? Nowadays firms do not gamble alot and I bet it also counts for game developers. They all have studied well informed workers in the financial sector which can calculate the ROI (return on invest) already b4 they started to develope this game...

Even they go f2p or b2p it doesnt mean they have financial problems just a new marketing trick to gather even more...since the old system got milked out.

I hope people who aren't involved in companies financial sectors stop doing predictions without knowing anything about it.

Many of these games have layoffs. It's more of a reality than a prediction when a game severely undersells. Particularly in the MMORPG sector. The question you should be asking is, "did this game sell far less than expected?" If yes, then there will likely be layoffs coming down the pipeline. It's an awful thing that happens in the industry, but it's a reality.

Well, using your example of layoffs it appears Zenimax is doing great if you look at http://jobs.zenimax.com/search ......over 80 positions available there!

  StrixMaxima

Novice Member

Joined: 2/07/09
Posts: 890

4/25/14 11:49:13 AM#94

It's interesting how the discussion about games are games in itself. Forum PVP at its best.

Fact is: the game is good. The game has problems. The game has a huge fanbase from which they drew their playerbase. The game sold adequately, and since it had no IP costs, they can recoup things relatively fast.

It all hinges on how fast they can deliver good content, and how well they can neutralize RMT and botting. So far, I am enjoying the game, even with its flaws. The game has a strange allure for me, with its vistas and systems. I frankly thought I'd have more issues with it than I currently do (speaking as a TES whore).

But please, keep on the theorycraft and mathemagic. It is highly entertaining!

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10569

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

4/25/14 11:49:56 AM#95
Originally posted by CrazKanuk

Ok, so some interesting numbers from more recent retail/digital releases:

In 2012 http://www.vgchartz.com/game/65124/world-of-warcraft-mists-of-pandaria/Global/ indicates that Mists of Pandaria sold 650k copies the first week, Blizzard announced 2.7 million.

 

In 2010 http://www.vgchartz.com/game/38102/world-of-warcraft-cataclysm/Global/ indicates Cataclysm sold 778k copies in the first week, but Blizzard announced 3.3 million copies sold in the first 24 hours!!

 

This is 2 and 4 years ago, respectively!!!!! And the difference in sales was 4 or 5 to 1!!! Digital sales have only increased, too. Especially since they don't have to pay a retailer on first-party sales. Plus, there were 4 versions of ESO sitting in the top 15 on Amazon since the pre-order was announced. The games are still in the top 100 and have been there now for 3 months!!!

 

Sorry, but the vgchartz numbers are becoming more and more outdated. It might still be applicable for console games, since that's still the main method of delivery for those, but for PC games, and especially MMOs which usually already have beta clients on their customers' PCs, it's just not accurate.  

 

I think publishers are just going to make it harder and harder for people to know how many copies of something actually sold.  I don't think they don't really want anyone to have a clear idea, especially with MMORPGs.  There's just no way to give transparent information and have it not be presented in a negative light.

 

Great sales?  Awesome! Why aren't they great now, after 6 months?  Never mind that 99%+ of video games have the majority of their sales at release.  Never mind that most MMORPGs behave the same way.  Abnormal Behavior is the new Expectation!

 

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Nanfoodle

Elite Member

Joined: 5/23/06
Posts: 3431

4/25/14 11:50:28 AM#96
Originally posted by Ramonski7
Put it this way...if the number were THAT good, Zen would have let us know by now. Obviously, the numbers didn't meet their own expectations or maybe the expectations of those who are financially vested. But I'm sure as soon as they reach a milestone, they will release something.

Its rare you see any sales numbers in the first month of release. So much changing fast fast at the start there is almost no reason to.

  Nanfoodle

Elite Member

Joined: 5/23/06
Posts: 3431

4/25/14 11:53:24 AM#97
Originally posted by Aeonblades
Originally posted by Nanfoodle
Originally posted by Pyatra
ZOS is a privately traded company, they have not released their direct sales numbers yet, that includes to 3rd party metric sites.  These numbers are only from select retail vendors that share their data, which means the discrepancy could be 500K copies... could even be just 5 copies.  Until real numbers come out can all the fan boys and hate trolls chill the F* out and stop beating a dead horse?  Any one who points to these numbers in any stance good or bad has no clue what's going on.

When compared to other games you can only count one thing. How popular it is at launch to other games. By no means can you count its success or failure as each game needs a different amount of subs to make a profit. Its clear GW2 did better then the other 2 on the list, but again how many still play and pay is a bigger part of the numbers we dont see. Many were screaming ESO was going to sell 10-20 mill copies. From what we see there I think thats unlikely. So the numbers are good for a few things.

Well to be fair even though I am admittedly a fan of ESO, I really did not expect it to sell as well as GW2 or SWToR. Star Wars is one of the biggest, if not the biggest overall IPs you can find, and GW2 not having a sub fee as well as bringing in hundreds of thousands of fans in from the original game helped boost sales as well.

I didn't really expect ESO to set any kind of sales milestones, it's a niche game for people who prefer an older style of game play with ES lore and game play.

I was not sure because of the console side of it, there is a HUGE fan base that millions and millions of copies of TES games have been bought and traded. But as you say it seems to have fallen in the niche market. That is not a bad thing, its just what it is.

  Mouls

Novice Member

Joined: 2/23/08
Posts: 84

4/25/14 11:55:16 AM#98
Should have been B2P since the beginning.
  Nanfoodle

Elite Member

Joined: 5/23/06
Posts: 3431

4/25/14 12:00:06 PM#99
Originally posted by Mouls
Should have been B2P since the beginning.

I thought ESO fit the B2P market better then any other game given that thats how most TES fans are used to playing this series. Buy the game and pay for mount packages and new DLC. (((shrugs))) I think they would have gotten a lot more console gamers that way who are now at box price+sub+console service fee.  

  keithian

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/20/06
Posts: 2965

4/25/14 12:07:09 PM#100
Originally posted by Gilllean

OP go fuck your self up the ass with your rating this game is brilliant and I don't give a damn shit what some retarded kid things.

I'm done common GM Ban me again because on MMORPG is ok to shit on people hobby but its not ok to shit on aggresor . Shorter fuck you and this website

lol, I know its frustrating, but I kind of look at it like the movie The Hobbit. Review sites gave it 5's, 6's, and 7s but it still sold extremely well, most fans enjoyed it despite what you would read on the forums, and DVD and download sales despite reviews did quite well. ALso, despite what anyone thought I watched the movie twice and loved it (even though like ESO, the beginning was a little slow) :-) lol.

There Is Always Hope!

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