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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » Why are we not going to see another SWG or UO?

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91 posts found
  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

 
OP  4/20/14 9:12:40 PM#21
Originally posted by Mysta
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Mysta

 

 

 

You're forgetting a key figure, MMOs were VASTLY less popular 11 years ago, when SWG came out, and ~17 years ago when UO came out. Warcraft was the first game in western culture that gained massive popularity thus bringing it much closer to social acceptance.  By the time people grew tired of WOW and such, why would they go back and play an 'old' game such as SWG that hadn't t caught the popularity wave and basically had no content added to it, only core systems changed to try and grab the wow crowd.

 

We could do the same thing with EQ or WoW.  The results would be the same.

 

Wrong, EQ barely outperformed SWG(While being out first and having an established fanbase of people willing to shell out 15$ a month) and when you compare WoWs polish and accessibilityjust a short year after SWG, which actually in technology is a HUGE leap, enough for many more homes to have computers, better internet(DSL/Cable), etc. We should be able to agree that WoW is an anomaly and can't be used as comparison as no MMO has done as well.(That we know of)

 

Er, have you seen the numbers for EQ?  Half a million players peak, versus the 300k players for SWG.  EQ didn't have a short run either.  It's actually still running in a F2P incarnation.

 

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

 
OP  4/20/14 9:17:18 PM#22
Originally posted by Dihoru
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Dihoru
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Dihoru

Which looks like a hybrid between SWG and a less harsh (mechanics-wise) EVE-Online on the PVP servers.

As far as UO.... Albion Online and Gloria Victis.

So knowing those upcoming games how are your predictions holding up OP?

 

Since none of these games could be called "AAA", pretty well.  If you read my last paragraph.

 

Neither SWG nor UO can be considered AAA productions either so your point is moot hence why I omitted it from consideration (EQ could nominally be called AAA and WoW most certainly).

 

Both games were AAA productions for their time.  Especially SWG. 

 

Keep dreaming. SWG in terms of graphics and overall bling factor was below games 4-5 years older and UO wasn't even remotely comparable in terms of bling factor to Diablo 1 or other similar isometric games of the day.

Now kindly stop trying to retroactively apply shitty labels idiots use today to segment gaming in completely arbitrary categories and which usually do not impact the quality of gameplay in any way.

 

Start a thread on "sandbox" gaming.  The SWG vets will show up, talking about how great the game was.  With Raph Koster's name attached and the SW IP, Sony and industry pundits expected the game to hit a million subscriptions.  Double what EQ managed.  At the time, developing a game that people expected to have the most subs of any game sounds pretty AAA.

 

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  User Deleted
4/20/14 9:22:44 PM#23
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Dihoru
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Dihoru
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Dihoru

Which looks like a hybrid between SWG and a less harsh (mechanics-wise) EVE-Online on the PVP servers.

As far as UO.... Albion Online and Gloria Victis.

So knowing those upcoming games how are your predictions holding up OP?

 

Since none of these games could be called "AAA", pretty well.  If you read my last paragraph.

 

Neither SWG nor UO can be considered AAA productions either so your point is moot hence why I omitted it from consideration (EQ could nominally be called AAA and WoW most certainly).

 

Both games were AAA productions for their time.  Especially SWG. 

 

Keep dreaming. SWG in terms of graphics and overall bling factor was below games 4-5 years older and UO wasn't even remotely comparable in terms of bling factor to Diablo 1 or other similar isometric games of the day.

Now kindly stop trying to retroactively apply shitty labels idiots use today to segment gaming in completely arbitrary categories and which usually do not impact the quality of gameplay in any way.

 

Start a thread on "sandbox" gaming.  The SWG vets will show up, talking about how great the game was.  With Raph Koster's name attached and the SW IP, Sony and industry pundits expected the game to hit a million subscriptions.  Double what EQ managed.  At the time, developing a game that people expected to have the most subs of any game sounds pretty AAA.

 

And? The game got killed by its own devs (goes to your observation above in regards to EQ) and if names and support equals AAA for you then fine have it and keep looking at big names for big results but before EQ and before UO their respective teams were nobodies and SWG if it did not have the SW IP would've probably still been around today and non-NGE'd so yeah.

  Xthos

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/18/10
Posts: 2651

4/20/14 9:23:10 PM#24

Depending on what number you use for ToR's cost (probably no matter the number you use also), UO still is probably ahead of ToR.

 

 

  Vermillion_Raventhal

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/01/04
Posts: 1039

4/20/14 9:42:42 PM#25

You're leaving out a lot of factors.

 

1. When UO and many of the older games the majority of players were on dialup.

2. There were less people on the internet.

3. The playablity was far worst because WoW hadn't standardize the MMORPG UI.

4. WoW brought a lot of gamers that never played MMORPG or even tried one for many reason that have nothing to do with MMORPG.  Simple fact is that Blizzard had a cult following of already online battlenet fans that got hooked on a quality first MMORPG.  Its why the success hasn't been repeated.  But the point is by the Time SWTOR came out there were millions more playing MMORPGs.

  Mysta

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/19/04
Posts: 78

4/20/14 10:57:50 PM#26
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Mysta
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Mysta

 

 

 

You're forgetting a key figure, MMOs were VASTLY less popular 11 years ago, when SWG came out, and ~17 years ago when UO came out. Warcraft was the first game in western culture that gained massive popularity thus bringing it much closer to social acceptance.  By the time people grew tired of WOW and such, why would they go back and play an 'old' game such as SWG that hadn't t caught the popularity wave and basically had no content added to it, only core systems changed to try and grab the wow crowd.

 

We could do the same thing with EQ or WoW.  The results would be the same.

 

Wrong, EQ barely outperformed SWG(While being out first and having an established fanbase of people willing to shell out 15$ a month) and when you compare WoWs polish and accessibilityjust a short year after SWG, which actually in technology is a HUGE leap, enough for many more homes to have computers, better internet(DSL/Cable), etc. We should be able to agree that WoW is an anomaly and can't be used as comparison as no MMO has done as well.(That we know of)

 

Er, have you seen the numbers for EQ?  Half a million players peak, versus the 300k players for SWG.  EQ didn't have a short run either.  It's actually still running in a F2P incarnation.

 

And did you just choose to ignore the fact that I referenced it NOT having any polish and accessibility from the get-go, not to mention HORRIBLY unoptimized, none of which have to do with it being a sandbox. If you didn't have a great computer the game was going to run horribly, especially in high population areas, and that was pretty sad for a bad looking game in the first place. It definitely was not for everyone and thus had a very niche crowd of dedicated players. Until you know, they decided to change it to a different game twice.

 

Hrm, play this game that just came out with all sorts of controversy and issues, or play this new game that runs great on crappy machines, is gaining a lot of steam,  and is highly polished!(comparitively)

  Mardukk

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 2/05/11
Posts: 1458

4/20/14 11:18:40 PM#27

I like how OP is somehow grouping EQ in with WoW and the stuff that has been released the last ten years.  You may as well group EQ with UO and SWG bud.  There was freedom and consequence in all of those games....unlike games today other than Darkfall and EvE.

 

We will see games with more freedom made...EQN.  Made by larger studios.  An open world MMO with risk vs reward and consequences can be successful. Once people continue to tire of the same old no freedom no virtual world linear quest grinding.

 

In OP's defense, I will say this site has seen a definite shift in the last couple years from hardcore sandbox to very friendly to no freedom themeparks.  I think a lot of the old school MMO community has given up after 10+ years of waiting with only two legit open world games made (Darkfall and EvE).

 

Sidenote to another discussion in this thread:  I remember mobs not even dropping loot in SWG.  I may be mistaken, but that immediately made me dislike that game as release. 

  Maquiame

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/21/07
Posts: 661

Power without perception is spiritually useless and of no true value

4/20/14 11:23:58 PM#28
Originally posted by Mardukk

I like how OP is somehow grouping EQ in with WoW and the stuff that has been released the last ten years.  You may as well group EQ with UO and SWG bud.  There was freedom and consequence in all of those games....unlike games today other than Darkfall and EvE.

 

We will see games with more freedom made...EQN.  Made by larger studios.  An open world MMO with risk vs reward and consequences can be successful. Once people continue to tire of the same old no freedom no virtual world linear quest grinding.

 

In OP's defense, I will say this site has seen a definite shift in the last couple years from hardcore sandbox to very friendly to no freedom themeparks.  I think a lot of the old school MMO community has given up after 10+ years of waiting with only two legit open world games made (Darkfall and EvE).

 

Sidenote to another discussion in this thread:  I remember mobs not even dropping loot in SWG.  I may be mistaken, but that immediately made me dislike that game as release. 

Darkfall? Don't make me laugh. Saga of Ryzom eats Darkfalls lunch. 

 

Anyway ArcheAge will be out in the fall and i has alot of UO elements

Any mmo worth its salt should be like a good prostitute when it comes to its game world- One hell of a faker, and a damn good shaker!

  Canan

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/21/10
Posts: 94

4/20/14 11:29:52 PM#29
You should look into Pathfinder Online. See you in game! 
  Hrimnir

Elite Member

Joined: 5/24/10
Posts: 1188

4/20/14 11:43:57 PM#30
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Scorchien
Originally posted by lizardbones

You'll have to remember MMOData to follow this.  He stopped tracking MMORPGs because publishers became more and more close mouthed about their numbers, and more and more MMORPGs started using F2P so the subscription numbers became meaningless.  But there's enough information there to follow this.

 

If you download the spreadsheet information, and look at SWG, UO and SWToR, then fill in the blanks for all the months where there is no data.  Do it the easy way.  Just assume each month continues on as if there were no changes. So this:

1000 - blank - blank - 2000 - blank -blank - 1000

becomes

1000 - 1000 - 1000 - 2000 - 2000 - 2000 - 1000

 

You'll have to dig a bit to get numbers for SWToR, but they seem to have hovered around 500k for awhile.  I assumed they dropped to 300k, until they jumped back up to 500k after the F2P release.  I didn't add any numbers after the F2P release for SWToR (stopping at May, 2013).  This will extend the difference in the amount of times used for each of the three games, giving SWToR the least amount of time since it won't count subs to the present, but it doesn't matter.

 

Calculate/Estimate total revenue for each of those three games.  Sum up the total subs per month, then multiply it by $15.

SWToR - $213M total subs

SWG - $261.4M total subs

UO - $283.4M total subs

 

Now, divide each of those numbers by the number of months it took to generate those numbers.

SWToR - 18 months, $11.9M per month

SWG - 102 months, $2.6M per month ($3.3M adjusted for inflation)

UO - 118 months, $2.5M per month ($3.7M adjusted for inflation)

 

Even adjusting for inflation, neither UO or SWG come close to generating the kind of revenue that SWToR is generating.  I would bet other theme park style games compare this well against "classics" financially.  So if you ever wonder why those old sandbox games aren't making a comeback, this is why.  $Money$

 

That's not to say that some new style of sandbox game won't exist, or that older style sandbox games won't exist, just at a smaller scale than AAA theme parks.  Especially since newer styles of sandboxes are getting made, and older styles of sandbox games are getting made, just at a much smaller scale than the AAA theme parks.

 

I think your logic is kinda messed up on the premise that not many people at all were exposed to MMOs when UO  And SWG came out or i am sure that there numbers would have much stronger across the board , just look at some of the real deuces for games that generate more than either of those 2 titles now... And only because the market has more than quadrupled in size since 97 ... If the market had the millions of gamers exposed to MMOS then as it has now , they would have pulled in great numbers ... 

 

Again, we can do the same comparison with EQ and WoW and get the same results.  Both were contemporaries of these games and both outperformed them by a wide margin.

 

**

 

SWToR is apropos because it is widely regarded as a total failure on these forums.  Even adjusting for inflation, SWToR earns more than double what each of those games earned and it's very close to earning in two years what each those games earned in their entire lifetimes.

 

Also, before anyone takes the conversation in that direction, I don't like SWToR.  WoW clone, not enough class storyline content versus world story content, odd or bad F2P choices made, small worlds that don't feel like worlds, etc.  Take your pick of flaws.  The cumulative effect of them was that I did not enjoy playing the game.  That's not the point.  The point is why the industry moved away from games like UO and SWG in the first place.  $Money$

 

This is an absolutely BUNK argument.

The entire MMO playerbase circa 2000-2001 consisted of between 1.2-1.5million players TOTAL.

The "MMO" playerbase now is somewhere in the range of 15-25 million players.  (I'm not including games like DOTA2, LoL, and other quasi MMOs, i mean traditional MMO where you log into a world with several hundred other players on the same "server").

What you're doing is like trying to compare the number of people who enjoyed drinking a very specific type of liquor, lets say Ouzo, to the number of people who enjoy drinking any type of alchohol whatsoever.

This whole topic is bunk because the genre has changed drastically from what it was, primarily to accomodate more casual gamers who would not otherwise have played "MMOs".  This was done via making these games more accessible graphically, and as far as play style (quest hubs, tooltips, less time investment, easier content, more forgiving, etc).

Games like EQ, UO, and SWG required actual thought.  They didnt have huge exclamation points above quest givers, things like quest hubs didnt exist.  You were thrown into a world and you had to figure it out through trial and tribulation.

MMOs now are extremely hand held fairly single player experiences.  Now, im not here to argue the merits of one play style vs the other, but comparing MMO's now to MMO's then is worse than apples to oranges, its more apples to potatoes.

To further take this and try to apply it towards an argument as to the merits of F2P vs Subscription is even more ridiculous.

"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

- Friedrich Nietzsche

  Mivi

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/20/13
Posts: 54

4/21/14 4:37:53 AM#31

I hope this can help you with the calculations guys

  Apraxis

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/28/05
Posts: 1509

4/21/14 5:39:51 AM#32
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Scorchien
Originally posted by lizardbones

You'll have to remember MMOData to follow this.  He stopped tracking MMORPGs because publishers became more and more close mouthed about their numbers, and more and more MMORPGs started using F2P so the subscription numbers became meaningless.  But there's enough information there to follow this.

 

If you download the spreadsheet information, and look at SWG, UO and SWToR, then fill in the blanks for all the months where there is no data.  Do it the easy way.  Just assume each month continues on as if there were no changes. So this:

1000 - blank - blank - 2000 - blank -blank - 1000

becomes

1000 - 1000 - 1000 - 2000 - 2000 - 2000 - 1000

 

You'll have to dig a bit to get numbers for SWToR, but they seem to have hovered around 500k for awhile.  I assumed they dropped to 300k, until they jumped back up to 500k after the F2P release.  I didn't add any numbers after the F2P release for SWToR (stopping at May, 2013).  This will extend the difference in the amount of times used for each of the three games, giving SWToR the least amount of time since it won't count subs to the present, but it doesn't matter.

 

Calculate/Estimate total revenue for each of those three games.  Sum up the total subs per month, then multiply it by $15.

SWToR - $213M total subs

SWG - $261.4M total subs

UO - $283.4M total subs

 

Now, divide each of those numbers by the number of months it took to generate those numbers.

SWToR - 18 months, $11.9M per month

SWG - 102 months, $2.6M per month ($3.3M adjusted for inflation)

UO - 118 months, $2.5M per month ($3.7M adjusted for inflation)

 

Even adjusting for inflation, neither UO or SWG come close to generating the kind of revenue that SWToR is generating.  I would bet other theme park style games compare this well against "classics" financially.  So if you ever wonder why those old sandbox games aren't making a comeback, this is why.  $Money$

 

That's not to say that some new style of sandbox game won't exist, or that older style sandbox games won't exist, just at a smaller scale than AAA theme parks.  Especially since newer styles of sandboxes are getting made, and older styles of sandbox games are getting made, just at a much smaller scale than the AAA theme parks.

 

I think your logic is kinda messed up on the premise that not many people at all were exposed to MMOs when UO  And SWG came out or i am sure that there numbers would have much stronger across the board , just look at some of the real deuces for games that generate more than either of those 2 titles now... And only because the market has more than quadrupled in size since 97 ... If the market had the millions of gamers exposed to MMOS then as it has now , they would have pulled in great numbers ... 

 

Again, we can do the same comparison with EQ and WoW and get the same results.  Both were contemporaries of these games and both outperformed them by a wide margin.

 

**

 

SWToR is apropos because it is widely regarded as a total failure on these forums.  Even adjusting for inflation, SWToR earns more than double what each of those games earned and it's very close to earning in two years what each those games earned in their entire lifetimes.

 

Also, before anyone takes the conversation in that direction, I don't like SWToR.  WoW clone, not enough class storyline content versus world story content, odd or bad F2P choices made, small worlds that don't feel like worlds, etc.  Take your pick of flaws.  The cumulative effect of them was that I did not enjoy playing the game.  That's not the point.  The point is why the industry moved away from games like UO and SWG in the first place.  $Money$

 

Earning? You mean profit? Then you should substract development and maintaince cost.

Lets setup some numbers for maintance cost:

Per hardware server(licencing, maintance, etc.) 10$ k/monthly. One hardware server fits for around 1000 players online or 10k overall

UO - 10 servers. around 100k subs -> monthly costs 0.1$ Mio

SWG - 20 servers. around 200k subs average -> monthly costs 0.2$ Mio

SWTOR - 200 servers. around 300k subs and 1.7 free players. -> monthly costs 2$ Mio

 

SWTOR: 18month * (11.9$ M - 2$ M) = 178.2$ M - 300$ Mio Development Costs = - 121.8$ M + (3M Sales * 40$) = -1.8$ M Profit (Not counting advertisement and further development + not counting Star Wars licencing (and this is true for SWG, too))

SWG: 102month * (2.6$ M - 0.2$ M) = 244.8$ M - 10$ M Development Costs = 234.8$ M + (1M Sales * 30$) = 266.8$ M Profit

UO: 118 month *(2.5$ M - 0.1$M) = 283.2$ M - 5$ M Development Costs = 288.2$ M + (0.5 M sales * 20$) = 298.2$ M Profit

Adjustment for UO.. noone ever paid 15$/month for UO. 298.2$ M - (1$ M * 118 month) = 198.2$ M

 

And to be perfectly honest both calculations a nowhere near the truth... but you can bet that mine is a lot closer. And it is a reason, why a lot of ppl call SWTOR a failure.. it is barely in profits, it layed down almost all staff in the first year after release. But i give you that.. now after initial advertising and development costs are paid it makes a more or less healthy monthly profit... although advertisement for SWTOR is still running and you can bet it is more than 1$ Mio/month.

 

 

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

 
OP  4/21/14 6:32:51 AM#33
Originally posted by Apraxis
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Scorchien
Originally posted by lizardbones

You'll have to remember MMOData to follow this.  He stopped tracking MMORPGs because publishers became more and more close mouthed about their numbers, and more and more MMORPGs started using F2P so the subscription numbers became meaningless.  But there's enough information there to follow this.

 

If you download the spreadsheet information, and look at SWG, UO and SWToR, then fill in the blanks for all the months where there is no data.  Do it the easy way.  Just assume each month continues on as if there were no changes. So this:

1000 - blank - blank - 2000 - blank -blank - 1000

becomes

1000 - 1000 - 1000 - 2000 - 2000 - 2000 - 1000

 

You'll have to dig a bit to get numbers for SWToR, but they seem to have hovered around 500k for awhile.  I assumed they dropped to 300k, until they jumped back up to 500k after the F2P release.  I didn't add any numbers after the F2P release for SWToR (stopping at May, 2013).  This will extend the difference in the amount of times used for each of the three games, giving SWToR the least amount of time since it won't count subs to the present, but it doesn't matter.

 

Calculate/Estimate total revenue for each of those three games.  Sum up the total subs per month, then multiply it by $15.

SWToR - $213M total subs

SWG - $261.4M total subs

UO - $283.4M total subs

 

Now, divide each of those numbers by the number of months it took to generate those numbers.

SWToR - 18 months, $11.9M per month

SWG - 102 months, $2.6M per month ($3.3M adjusted for inflation)

UO - 118 months, $2.5M per month ($3.7M adjusted for inflation)

 

Even adjusting for inflation, neither UO or SWG come close to generating the kind of revenue that SWToR is generating.  I would bet other theme park style games compare this well against "classics" financially.  So if you ever wonder why those old sandbox games aren't making a comeback, this is why.  $Money$

 

That's not to say that some new style of sandbox game won't exist, or that older style sandbox games won't exist, just at a smaller scale than AAA theme parks.  Especially since newer styles of sandboxes are getting made, and older styles of sandbox games are getting made, just at a much smaller scale than the AAA theme parks.

 

I think your logic is kinda messed up on the premise that not many people at all were exposed to MMOs when UO  And SWG came out or i am sure that there numbers would have much stronger across the board , just look at some of the real deuces for games that generate more than either of those 2 titles now... And only because the market has more than quadrupled in size since 97 ... If the market had the millions of gamers exposed to MMOS then as it has now , they would have pulled in great numbers ... 

 

Again, we can do the same comparison with EQ and WoW and get the same results.  Both were contemporaries of these games and both outperformed them by a wide margin.

 

**

 

SWToR is apropos because it is widely regarded as a total failure on these forums.  Even adjusting for inflation, SWToR earns more than double what each of those games earned and it's very close to earning in two years what each those games earned in their entire lifetimes.

 

Also, before anyone takes the conversation in that direction, I don't like SWToR.  WoW clone, not enough class storyline content versus world story content, odd or bad F2P choices made, small worlds that don't feel like worlds, etc.  Take your pick of flaws.  The cumulative effect of them was that I did not enjoy playing the game.  That's not the point.  The point is why the industry moved away from games like UO and SWG in the first place.  $Money$

 

Earning? You mean profit? Then you should substract development and maintaince cost.

Lets setup some numbers for maintance cost:

Per hardware server(licencing, maintance, etc.) 10$ k/monthly. One hardware server fits for around 1000 players online or 10k overall

UO - 10 servers. around 100k subs -> monthly costs 0.1$ Mio

SWG - 20 servers. around 200k subs average -> monthly costs 0.2$ Mio

SWTOR - 200 servers. around 300k subs and 1.7 free players. -> monthly costs 2$ Mio

 

SWTOR: 18month * (11.9$ M - 2$ M) = 178.2$ M - 300$ Mio Development Costs = - 121.8$ M + (3M Sales * 40$) = -1.8$ M Profit (Not counting advertisement and further development + not counting Star Wars licencing (and this is true for SWG, too))

SWG: 102month * (2.6$ M - 0.2$ M) = 244.8$ M - 10$ M Development Costs = 234.8$ M + (1M Sales * 30$) = 266.8$ M Profit

UO: 118 month *(2.5$ M - 0.1$M) = 283.2$ M - 5$ M Development Costs = 288.2$ M + (0.5 M sales * 20$) = 298.2$ M Profit

Adjustment for UO.. noone ever paid 15$/month for UO. 298.2$ M - (1$ M * 118 month) = 198.2$ M

 

And to be perfectly honest both calculations a nowhere near the truth... but you can bet that mine is a lot closer. And it is a reason, why a lot of ppl call SWTOR a failure.. it is barely in profits, it layed down almost all staff in the first year after release. But i give you that.. now after initial advertising and development costs are paid it makes a more or less healthy monthly profit... although advertisement for SWTOR is still running and you can bet it is more than 1$ Mio/month.

 

 

 

A high percentage profitability, while desireable, isn't the goal of most developers.  For that matter, believe it or not, businesses in general aren't shooting for high percentage profitability.  Aiming for a high percentage profitability limits the total revenue, which limits the total profit.  They are shooting for maximum profit obtained.

 

It goes like this.  Generally speaking for product X, at a high price very few instances of X will be sold.  Percentage profit will be high, but total revenue and total profit will be low.  Lowering the price will increase the instances of X sold, lowering the percentage profit, but increasing the total amount of revenue and total amount of profit obtained.  A business short changes their total profits by aiming for the price point where they maximize their percentage profits.

 

In short, businesses will be much happier obtaining a million dollars at a 10% profit rather than five hundred thousand dollars at a 20% profit.  The best possible scenario is one where businesses can sell something at a high profit margin, tap out the market, and then later lower the price and obtain more profits at a lower margin, maximizing the total profits gained.  The transition from P2P to F2P itself may be poorly planned, but games going from P2P to F2P is not.  That regular price you see on something before it goes on sale?  That's the price at the high end of the scale.

 

In the case of SWToR, keep in mind that it still has another seven or eight years of running to accumulate profits.  SWG is done, and UO is pretty close to "done" in terms of generating revenue.  Take your pick of metrics, total revenue, total profits, SWToR is going to generate more money than either game.  Adjust for inflation and it's still going to generate more money than either game.

 

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

 
OP  4/21/14 6:34:45 AM#34
Originally posted by Hrimnir
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Scorchien
Originally posted by lizardbones

You'll have to remember MMOData to follow this.  He stopped tracking MMORPGs because publishers became more and more close mouthed about their numbers, and more and more MMORPGs started using F2P so the subscription numbers became meaningless.  But there's enough information there to follow this.

 

If you download the spreadsheet information, and look at SWG, UO and SWToR, then fill in the blanks for all the months where there is no data.  Do it the easy way.  Just assume each month continues on as if there were no changes. So this:

1000 - blank - blank - 2000 - blank -blank - 1000

becomes

1000 - 1000 - 1000 - 2000 - 2000 - 2000 - 1000

 

You'll have to dig a bit to get numbers for SWToR, but they seem to have hovered around 500k for awhile.  I assumed they dropped to 300k, until they jumped back up to 500k after the F2P release.  I didn't add any numbers after the F2P release for SWToR (stopping at May, 2013).  This will extend the difference in the amount of times used for each of the three games, giving SWToR the least amount of time since it won't count subs to the present, but it doesn't matter.

 

Calculate/Estimate total revenue for each of those three games.  Sum up the total subs per month, then multiply it by $15.

SWToR - $213M total subs

SWG - $261.4M total subs

UO - $283.4M total subs

 

Now, divide each of those numbers by the number of months it took to generate those numbers.

SWToR - 18 months, $11.9M per month

SWG - 102 months, $2.6M per month ($3.3M adjusted for inflation)

UO - 118 months, $2.5M per month ($3.7M adjusted for inflation)

 

Even adjusting for inflation, neither UO or SWG come close to generating the kind of revenue that SWToR is generating.  I would bet other theme park style games compare this well against "classics" financially.  So if you ever wonder why those old sandbox games aren't making a comeback, this is why.  $Money$

 

That's not to say that some new style of sandbox game won't exist, or that older style sandbox games won't exist, just at a smaller scale than AAA theme parks.  Especially since newer styles of sandboxes are getting made, and older styles of sandbox games are getting made, just at a much smaller scale than the AAA theme parks.

 

I think your logic is kinda messed up on the premise that not many people at all were exposed to MMOs when UO  And SWG came out or i am sure that there numbers would have much stronger across the board , just look at some of the real deuces for games that generate more than either of those 2 titles now... And only because the market has more than quadrupled in size since 97 ... If the market had the millions of gamers exposed to MMOS then as it has now , they would have pulled in great numbers ... 

 

Again, we can do the same comparison with EQ and WoW and get the same results.  Both were contemporaries of these games and both outperformed them by a wide margin.

 

**

 

SWToR is apropos because it is widely regarded as a total failure on these forums.  Even adjusting for inflation, SWToR earns more than double what each of those games earned and it's very close to earning in two years what each those games earned in their entire lifetimes.

 

Also, before anyone takes the conversation in that direction, I don't like SWToR.  WoW clone, not enough class storyline content versus world story content, odd or bad F2P choices made, small worlds that don't feel like worlds, etc.  Take your pick of flaws.  The cumulative effect of them was that I did not enjoy playing the game.  That's not the point.  The point is why the industry moved away from games like UO and SWG in the first place.  $Money$

 

This is an absolutely BUNK argument.

The entire MMO playerbase circa 2000-2001 consisted of between 1.2-1.5million players TOTAL.

The "MMO" playerbase now is somewhere in the range of 15-25 million players.  (I'm not including games like DOTA2, LoL, and other quasi MMOs, i mean traditional MMO where you log into a world with several hundred other players on the same "server").

What you're doing is like trying to compare the number of people who enjoyed drinking a very specific type of liquor, lets say Ouzo, to the number of people who enjoy drinking any type of alchohol whatsoever.

This whole topic is bunk because the genre has changed drastically from what it was, primarily to accomodate more casual gamers who would not otherwise have played "MMOs".  This was done via making these games more accessible graphically, and as far as play style (quest hubs, tooltips, less time investment, easier content, more forgiving, etc).

Games like EQ, UO, and SWG required actual thought.  They didnt have huge exclamation points above quest givers, things like quest hubs didnt exist.  You were thrown into a world and you had to figure it out through trial and tribulation.

MMOs now are extremely hand held fairly single player experiences.  Now, im not here to argue the merits of one play style vs the other, but comparing MMO's now to MMO's then is worse than apples to oranges, its more apples to potatoes.

To further take this and try to apply it towards an argument as to the merits of F2P vs Subscription is even more ridiculous.

 

And yet before SWG was running, EQ racked up what, half a million players?  WoW racked up millions of players while SWG was running?  Certainly more than SWToR.

 

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

 
OP  4/21/14 6:47:35 AM#35
Originally posted by Vermillion_Raventhal

You're leaving out a lot of factors.

 

1. When UO and many of the older games the majority of players were on dialup.

2. There were less people on the internet.

3. The playablity was far worst because WoW hadn't standardize the MMORPG UI.

4. WoW brought a lot of gamers that never played MMORPG or even tried one for many reason that have nothing to do with MMORPG.  Simple fact is that Blizzard had a cult following of already online battlenet fans that got hooked on a quality first MMORPG.  Its why the success hasn't been repeated.  But the point is by the Time SWTOR came out there were millions more playing MMORPGs.

 

The games I chose just illustrated the point really well.  Theme parks = $Money$.  I suppose now it would be MOBA = $Money$. There's a reason EQ drew in far more players than UO, SWG or any game before it and it has to do with the play style.  I'll say it again, we could have done this comparison with EQ v. UO or SWG and the results would be the same.  The Final Fantasy games would have yielded the same results.  SWToR is apropos for these forums because it is lauded as such a failure here.

 

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  User Deleted
4/21/14 7:44:43 AM#36
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Vermillion_Raventhal

You're leaving out a lot of factors.

 

1. When UO and many of the older games the majority of players were on dialup.

2. There were less people on the internet.

3. The playablity was far worst because WoW hadn't standardize the MMORPG UI.

4. WoW brought a lot of gamers that never played MMORPG or even tried one for many reason that have nothing to do with MMORPG.  Simple fact is that Blizzard had a cult following of already online battlenet fans that got hooked on a quality first MMORPG.  Its why the success hasn't been repeated.  But the point is by the Time SWTOR came out there were millions more playing MMORPGs.

 

The games I chose just illustrated the point really well.  Theme parks = $Money$.  I suppose now it would be MOBA = $Money$. There's a reason EQ drew in far more players than UO, SWG or any game before it and it has to do with the play style.  I'll say it again, we could have done this comparison with EQ v. UO or SWG and the results would be the same.  The Final Fantasy games would have yielded the same results.  SWToR is apropos for these forums because it is lauded as such a failure here.

 

Wow... just wow... so internet penetration has no place in your world and everything you do is compare the games in a vacuum. GG, no point in this thread.

  MumboJumbo

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/18/10
Posts: 3207

Veni, Vidi, Converti

4/21/14 8:08:09 AM#37
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Apraxis
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Scorchien
Originally posted by lizardbones

You'll have to remember MMOData to follow this.  He stopped tracking MMORPGs because publishers became more and more close mouthed about their numbers, and more and more MMORPGs started using F2P so the subscription numbers became meaningless.  But there's enough information there to follow this.

 

If you download the spreadsheet information, and look at SWG, UO and SWToR, then fill in the blanks for all the months where there is no data.  Do it the easy way.  Just assume each month continues on as if there were no changes. So this:

1000 - blank - blank - 2000 - blank -blank - 1000

becomes

1000 - 1000 - 1000 - 2000 - 2000 - 2000 - 1000

 

You'll have to dig a bit to get numbers for SWToR, but they seem to have hovered around 500k for awhile.  I assumed they dropped to 300k, until they jumped back up to 500k after the F2P release.  I didn't add any numbers after the F2P release for SWToR (stopping at May, 2013).  This will extend the difference in the amount of times used for each of the three games, giving SWToR the least amount of time since it won't count subs to the present, but it doesn't matter.

 

Calculate/Estimate total revenue for each of those three games.  Sum up the total subs per month, then multiply it by $15.

SWToR - $213M total subs

SWG - $261.4M total subs

UO - $283.4M total subs

 

Now, divide each of those numbers by the number of months it took to generate those numbers.

SWToR - 18 months, $11.9M per month

SWG - 102 months, $2.6M per month ($3.3M adjusted for inflation)

UO - 118 months, $2.5M per month ($3.7M adjusted for inflation)

 

Even adjusting for inflation, neither UO or SWG come close to generating the kind of revenue that SWToR is generating.  I would bet other theme park style games compare this well against "classics" financially.  So if you ever wonder why those old sandbox games aren't making a comeback, this is why.  $Money$

 

That's not to say that some new style of sandbox game won't exist, or that older style sandbox games won't exist, just at a smaller scale than AAA theme parks.  Especially since newer styles of sandboxes are getting made, and older styles of sandbox games are getting made, just at a much smaller scale than the AAA theme parks.

 

I think your logic is kinda messed up on the premise that not many people at all were exposed to MMOs when UO  And SWG came out or i am sure that there numbers would have much stronger across the board , just look at some of the real deuces for games that generate more than either of those 2 titles now... And only because the market has more than quadrupled in size since 97 ... If the market had the millions of gamers exposed to MMOS then as it has now , they would have pulled in great numbers ... 

 

Again, we can do the same comparison with EQ and WoW and get the same results.  Both were contemporaries of these games and both outperformed them by a wide margin.

 

**

 

SWToR is apropos because it is widely regarded as a total failure on these forums.  Even adjusting for inflation, SWToR earns more than double what each of those games earned and it's very close to earning in two years what each those games earned in their entire lifetimes.

 

Also, before anyone takes the conversation in that direction, I don't like SWToR.  WoW clone, not enough class storyline content versus world story content, odd or bad F2P choices made, small worlds that don't feel like worlds, etc.  Take your pick of flaws.  The cumulative effect of them was that I did not enjoy playing the game.  That's not the point.  The point is why the industry moved away from games like UO and SWG in the first place.  $Money$

 

Earning? You mean profit? Then you should substract development and maintaince cost.

Lets setup some numbers for maintance cost:

Per hardware server(licencing, maintance, etc.) 10$ k/monthly. One hardware server fits for around 1000 players online or 10k overall

UO - 10 servers. around 100k subs -> monthly costs 0.1$ Mio

SWG - 20 servers. around 200k subs average -> monthly costs 0.2$ Mio

SWTOR - 200 servers. around 300k subs and 1.7 free players. -> monthly costs 2$ Mio

 

SWTOR: 18month * (11.9$ M - 2$ M) = 178.2$ M - 300$ Mio Development Costs = - 121.8$ M + (3M Sales * 40$) = -1.8$ M Profit (Not counting advertisement and further development + not counting Star Wars licencing (and this is true for SWG, too))

SWG: 102month * (2.6$ M - 0.2$ M) = 244.8$ M - 10$ M Development Costs = 234.8$ M + (1M Sales * 30$) = 266.8$ M Profit

UO: 118 month *(2.5$ M - 0.1$M) = 283.2$ M - 5$ M Development Costs = 288.2$ M + (0.5 M sales * 20$) = 298.2$ M Profit

Adjustment for UO.. noone ever paid 15$/month for UO. 298.2$ M - (1$ M * 118 month) = 198.2$ M

 

And to be perfectly honest both calculations a nowhere near the truth... but you can bet that mine is a lot closer. And it is a reason, why a lot of ppl call SWTOR a failure.. it is barely in profits, it layed down almost all staff in the first year after release. But i give you that.. now after initial advertising and development costs are paid it makes a more or less healthy monthly profit... although advertisement for SWTOR is still running and you can bet it is more than 1$ Mio/month.

 

 

 

A high percentage profitability, while desireable, isn't the goal of most developers.  For that matter, believe it or not, businesses in general aren't shooting for high percentage profitability.  Aiming for a high percentage profitability limits the total revenue, which limits the total profit.  They are shooting for maximum profit obtained.

 

It goes like this.  Generally speaking for product X, at a high price very few instances of X will be sold.  Percentage profit will be high, but total revenue and total profit will be low.  Lowering the price will increase the instances of X sold, lowering the percentage profit, but increasing the total amount of revenue and total amount of profit obtained.  A business short changes their total profits by aiming for the price point where they maximize their percentage profits.

 

In short, businesses will be much happier obtaining a million dollars at a 10% profit rather than five hundred thousand dollars at a 20% profit.  The best possible scenario is one where businesses can sell something at a high profit margin, tap out the market, and then later lower the price and obtain more profits at a lower margin, maximizing the total profits gained.  The transition from P2P to F2P itself may be poorly planned, but games going from P2P to F2P is not.  That regular price you see on something before it goes on sale?  That's the price at the high end of the scale.

 

In the case of SWToR, keep in mind that it still has another seven or eight years of running to accumulate profits.  SWG is done, and UO is pretty close to "done" in terms of generating revenue.  Take your pick of metrics, total revenue, total profits, SWToR is going to generate more money than either game.  Adjust for inflation and it's still going to generate more money than either game.

 

Well WAR closed after 5 years! So we shall see...

That said the next meta-level is the ROI on SWOTOR and the time-line to that = HUGE Opportunity Cost and hence why we're unlikely to actually see AAA Themeparks ever being made in the West again: The Investors have shifted to other areas in the game industry now. Perhaps Eastern opportunities still exist idk but that is gobbled up by Eastern companies.

I refute the OP's conclusion: We're far, far more likely to see sandbox indie-budget mmorpgs coming out and turning a more absolutely small profit and growth of business but a relatively larger profit compared to costs of dev.

As UN: Dihouru (sic) mentioned:

> The Repopulation => SWG

> Albion Online & Shards Online => UO

> Pathfinder Online => EVE Online

Compared to:

> EQ-L: EQN, HNZ1 (sic?) => WOW

Looks like SOE is trying to go the Second Life Linden labs approach of UGC and business model eg selling islands for 13$ or a space-station nightclub for more.

  crack_fox

Novice Member

Joined: 7/09/04
Posts: 402

4/21/14 8:13:37 AM#38
Originally posted by lizardbones

That's not to say that some new style of sandbox game won't exist, or that older style sandbox games won't exist, just at a smaller scale than AAA theme parks.  Especially since newer styles of sandboxes are getting made, and older styles of sandbox games are getting made, just at a much smaller scale than the AAA theme parks.

That's no bad thing IMO. I don't particularly want a AAA sandbox. A big budget is no guarantee of a great game. Smaller scale 'sandboxy' games like CU will do for me. 

  Lonzo

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 8/05/04
Posts: 204

4/21/14 8:14:27 AM#39

I think the only company that is able to invent the new big mmo-thing is Blizzard. You know why? Because they just don't care what others say and invent good quality games.

All others just bring out half baked stuff that can not hold their subscribers or F2P-payers very long. The key here is quality. Like in every other business area.

It is Blizzard that will bring the MMO-Market to a next level... again.

 

  Reklaw

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/07/06
Posts: 6168

The adult I am takes care of most things real life. However my inner-child is a GAMER!!

4/21/14 8:31:16 AM#40
Originally posted by DamonVile
Originally posted by Mysta

 

You're forgetting a key figure, MMOs were VASTLY less popular 11 years ago, when SWG came out, and ~17 years ago when UO came out. Warcraft was the first game in western culture that gained massive popularity thus bringing it much closer to social acceptance.  By the time people grew tired of WOW and such, why would they go back and play an 'old' game such as SWG that hadn't t caught the popularity wave and basically had no content added to it, only core systems changed to try and grab the wow crowd.

True but what kinds of people did the mmo market attract ? 

Sandbox is a very loud group of people but are they numerous enough to support a game and open minded enough to stick with one that doesn't get everything exactly how they think it should be made ? Of course they'll tell you that are...unfortunatly history would disagree.

EvE is obviously the most successful sandbox game and how many people does it actually have playing ( not subs but people ) 250k...maybe ? Those are still swg/UO numbers 10 years later. They just found a way to get people to have multiple accounts.

If you're going to make an AAA title with a 50-100 mil budget there isn't a lot of incentive to go after that tiny market of people or even to take the massive risk of " but if you do it right you might get more "...but get it wrong and no plays and f2p wont save you.

Any MMO with avatars will be at risk. That is why EVE is succesfull in it's own way, it leaves out the majority of new players in this genre.

Any MMO, MMORPG either sandbox or themepark will have the atraction of the millions of people into this genre especially if you can play a true avatar instead of being a spaceship or any other type of vehicle.

Now look at most MMO today, read about the complaints, people are severely lacking any form of patients or understanding about how complex this genre is to make.

Now imagine all these new MMO players jumping into a more sandbox game. Perhaps ArcheAge could serve as a example because I am sure the lower minority loved the game how it was deliverd, yet the majority complaints and complaints which make them change allot of things in their game.

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