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Elder Scrolls Online

Elder Scrolls Online 

General Discussion  » Citing bad sales, will ESO survive with console sales?

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133 posts found
  kaiser3282

Tipster

Joined: 5/21/08
Posts: 2641

4/18/14 5:27:08 AM#41

People actually still rely on VGChartz and Xfire numbers as proof of anything? Kids these days.

BTW OP - Why even bother with an article from January from a guy who clearly is taking issue with the subscription model itself and at the time of writing the article knew absolutely nothing about the game aside from stuff he read on forums with no hands on experience himself? The whole article can pretty much be summed up as "I know very little about the game except that it has a $15 subscription. It's going to fail because it has a sub."

  movros99

Novice Member

Joined: 7/31/11
Posts: 75

4/18/14 5:30:40 AM#42

I take issue with a number of points on this article that I feel are baseless and incorrect.  I will address some quotes.

"But even Star Wars wasn’t enough to convince The Old Republic players that the game was worth a monthly fee."

The reason SWTOR failed to attract subscribers rests with EA.  The game had very little content for players to absorb and even less end game content.  There was no reason for players to subscribe - they were finished with the game.  ESO has a truck-load of content coupled with an engaging PvP system that will keep player's subscriptions active.

"an MMO version of the game isn’t something that deserves anywhere remotely near a $200M  budget"

Excuse me?  Really? This is one of the most beloved fantasy IP's in gaming and it doesn't deserve a AAA MMO intrepretation?  I completely disagree.  Previous titles have a following of ravenous fans.  An MMO in with this IP is more than justified.  

"I’m not normally a big PC MMO guy"

Then you have no business writing this article.  Go back to your corner and keep plugging away at Call of Duty and Halo.

"Console players, and hell, most PC players these days that aren’t die hard WoW or EVE Online devotees,"

Now I know this author is out of his f****** mind.   Developers have been chasing WoW for years and EVE defies logic and manages to keep growing its player base in spite of the age of its title.

"[players] have no patience for the increasingly outdated monthly subscription model"

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Players have no patience for lousy developers who are subjected to the whims of investors that are only concerned with making a profit.  How many titles have been pushed out the door too early and failed because of such terrible business models.   A number of players are revolting against this process via Kickstarter.  Star Citizen alone has just passed $42 Million in crowd funding.  People are more than willing to plunk down hundreds if not thousands of dollars on the mere promise of a decent title that won't be marred by ruthless investors and their poorly managed studios. 

"I thought SWTOR was the final object lesson any other studio would need to scale back whatever future plans they had for their own expensive MMO attempts, but it appears that lesson didn’t sink in for TESO, and they may end up paying the price for it."

And Wildstar too I suppose?  Rubbish. Again people want good games and SWTOR was/is trash.  A weak attempt at a Star Wars/WoW clone...pun intended.

"Who ever even asked for an Elder Scrolls MMO?"

In short.  Everybody who stood in Skyrim and got lonely.  Multi-player mods for Skyrim were very popular.  Should we also conclude that Final Fantasy is a bad IP for an MMO?  Hell even Warcraft was a single player IP at one point. 

"In short, Bethesda and Zenimax spend an ungodly amount of money developing a game for an audience that may not even exist."

The mega server, plagued as it is with bugs and other issues, is jam-packed with players thank you very much. 

"In short, it’s not a game that’s worth $15 a month."

It's not the game people pay a monthly sub for, it's the service.  The content updates and interaction with developers and GM's.  On this point Zenimax has yet to prove itself.  It is early though.  They deserve a few weeks to get their s*** together.

This is a terrible article.  Paul Tassi needs to forget about a career in journalism and stick with his science fiction writing.  Fiction is most definitely his strong suit.

Mo

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10633

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

4/18/14 5:39:17 AM#43

Wow, look at that.  ESO is #1 on GameStop's PC Downloads page.  And #2.

 

http://www.impulsedriven.com/

 

 

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Zeddakis

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/11/11
Posts: 88

4/18/14 5:42:35 AM#44
Originally posted by grapevine
Originally posted by paparios
Originally posted by grapevine

The problem is you are trying too hard to have a negative view and its obvious.  You are clearly on the hunt to find anything.  Seriously why bother?  XFire is hardly used and the stats are based on vastly incomplete data.

 

The game may have sold badly and it may not have.  However please don't try to come across as one way or another being fact, as you (and everyone else) doesn't know.

Raptr tracks maybe more than 30m ppls playing hours.

Anyway those programs may not show anyhting about total numbers or subs in a game, but the trend of those who already play it and use these programs. The numbers shows a radical decline of their interest in every days playing hours. About total numbers & subs we can only be sure if ZEN announce them, but the trend of the ppl can be shown from these programs.

Quite amazing as I've yet to come across anyone who actually uses them kind of tools, in 18 years of  online gaming.  I installed XFire once, to check it out.  Doesn't mean I use it.   Like most, I'm not interested in being "tracked".   From what I can tell they attract a certain mind set, so there tends to be a common trend no matter the game.

Since I use Raptr please tell me what that "certain mind set" is please?

  Apraxis

Elite Member

Joined: 9/28/05
Posts: 1470

4/18/14 5:50:37 AM#45
Originally posted by Karteli

ESO had some bad vibes from Forbes, even before launch, with a whopping $200 million budget:

 

Predicting the Biggest Video Game Disaster of 2014: The Elder Scrolls Online

January 02, 2014

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

 

excerpt:

I’m not sure if it’s arrogance, the idea that people love the Elder Scrolls so much they’ll pay $60 for a box copy and $180 a year to play TESO, but it’s bad business sense at the very least. It’s not only subscription fees that are becoming out of fashion, but the very concept of huge budget, AAA MMOs in general. I thought SWTOR was the final object lesson any other studio would need to scale back whatever future plans they had for their own expensive MMO attempts, but it appears that lesson didn’t sink in for TESO, and they may end up paying the price for it.

 

OK, ESO didn't do so well with PC sales, so Forbes is right.

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Elder+scrolls+online

(numbers in millions)

Pos Game Platform Year Genre Publisher
North America
Europe
Japan
Rest of World
Global
1 The Elder Scrolls Online PC 2014 Action Bethesda Softworks
0.14
0.09
0.00
0.03
0.25
2 The Elder Scrolls Online OSX 2014 Action Bethesda Softworks
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3 The Elder Scrolls Online XOne 2014 Action Bethesda Softworks
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4 The Elder Scrolls Online PS4 2014 Action Bethesda Softworks
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total
0.14
0.09
0.00
0.03
0.25
 
 
What about console pre-orders? (http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/)
 
 
Pos Game Weeks to Launch Weekly Change Total
13

Gamewise Wiki for The Elder Scrolls Online (XOne)

The Elder Scrolls Online (XOne)
Bethesda Softworks, Action
12 3,139 70,117
14

Gamewise Wiki for The Elder Scrolls Online (PS4)

The Elder Scrolls Online (PS4)
Bethesda Softworks, Action
12 2,668 60,936
 
 
As VGChartz has shown, and from their by-kaws, preorders do only include North American sales, but their numbers also reflect digitial sales now.  So double those preorder numbers and you get a round-about number for global sales. (EU sales are roughly equvalent to USA.)
 
 
Call them estimates, but they seem to be pretty much spot on.  (ex 270k sales or 280k sales .. who cares, it's not 4 million).
 
 
ESO must survive with console sales, from here forward, IMO.  Will they?
 

Your numbers are bugged.. and your assumptions, too.

First of all those numbers are only until the 5th of April.. with other words only 1 day. Not counting digital sales, and is still the top spot on the week.. with other words wait until we have more accurate numbers before crying doom.

On the other side initial sales don't tell us a lot about success, otherwise SWTOR would be great.. but it isn't. You have to wait at least 6 month, better 1 year to say anything about player retention rate which is much more important as initial sales.

And just for your info.. i don't even have it bought now.. but i consider it... not because i have doubts or anything(and i do.. i don't like themeparks that much), but much more because time constraints.

But at least one point is accurate.. if ESO and/or Wildstar will not be successful with the P2P model, i would assume the subscription model will become rather niche and not be a factor for future major releases.. and that will impact the MMO genre extremely.  Like no bugdets above 200 million, all games streamlined for cashshops and cashshop items and the like.

Edit: And all that is not really important for survical.. even SWTOR survived up to now... so basicly any other game will too.. at least for a few years... it is much more important in what state it will survive.. as a barebone skeleton F2P title like SWTOR or a major titel with regular updates, expansions with P2P like WoW?

  Kinado

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/08/13
Posts: 190

4/18/14 5:57:24 AM#46
Originally posted by movros99

I take issue with a number of points on this article that I feel are baseless and incorrect.  I will address some quotes.

"But even Star Wars wasn’t enough to convince The Old Republic players that the game was worth a monthly fee."

The reason SWTOR failed to attract subscribers rests with EA.  The game had very little content for players to absorb and even less end game content.  There was no reason for players to subscribe - they were finished with the game.  ESO has a truck-load of content coupled with an engaging PvP system that will keep player's subscriptions active.

Let me correct that there. ESO has a truck-load of quests to do, not content or end-game content, just quests coupled with a PvP system that needs a lot of work and fine tuning. It runs smoothly, but it doesn't play smoothly, its unresponsive most of the times not to mention the bugs. As dungeons go they are far too easy to be done more than once and public dungeons are just a joke with people camping the bosses. 

ESO excels at questing, the stories are cool, the voice acting is good, there are many many bugs sure but even so it has a lot of lore to absorb. This alone unfortunately, doesn't make a sub fee MMO sustainable. Endgame content or sandbox features do. The game is lacking features.

I'm not a fan of crafting but it seems really well done aswell and as far as I know/experienced , its the only aspect of the game that didn't show any bugs. 

As customer support goes, its awful. I got stuck in a wall in PVP and there was no way for me to fix it, no /stuck /unstuck /reloadui , teleport whatever could fix it. Only switching campaigns and waiting a 24h cooldown to return or wait for the other faction to conquer the keep in which I was stuck in and kill me. I waited to get killed. I see people getting stuck every day that I play the game complaining about it.

I m still waiting for official forum access that I requested by e-mail 2 weeks ago. I had to be rude for them to stop replying me with automated responses as they did the first 3 times. I've been exchanging e-mails with them since then talking to a proper person that seems unable to give me forum access.

Good thing about ESO its that it has a lot of fans that will keep subbing and giving Zenimax a chance to get their act together. The game as it is right now, its not worth the MMO business model Zenimax is asking for.

  Apraxis

Elite Member

Joined: 9/28/05
Posts: 1470

4/18/14 6:00:09 AM#47
Originally posted by Karteli
Originally posted by amber-r

The VGchartz numbers are based on 1 single days sales.

 

ESO came out on the 4th and those sales are listed on the 5th.

They are to date.

 

Unless, of course, you think all these Super Mario Bros games sold just today also?

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=super+mario

 

Dang Super Mario Bros 3 sold 17 million copies today?

 

ps - yeah you can type stuff in the search bar to find old sales.

Leant to read. Global total sales as of 5th April 2014. It may differ for a title officially released 4th April and another franchise with a lot of released title over the years started somewhere in the '80

  paparios

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/17/14
Posts: 49

4/18/14 6:07:30 AM#48
Who Cares! I dont like ESO and i m not going to play it, but who really cares about sales? If i liked it i would play it no matter number sales. Same goes to WildStar that i ll be playing. I dont care about anything else besides if i find a game fun! No reviews, no trolls, no haters, no lovers, no payment models, not anything. I ll play as long as i have fun. Thats all.
  Horusra

Elite Member

Joined: 6/26/05
Posts: 2204

4/18/14 6:07:36 AM#49
Make sure you put in the vgchartz standard 20 - 40% error margin.
  Tsumoro

Elite Member

Joined: 6/30/12
Posts: 319

4/18/14 6:12:29 AM#50

ESO is a bit of an odd game with a divided community. When I speak to people that play it they either love it or they hate it. So, it leads me to believe that it has a bit of an identity crisis. Is it a good MMO or is it just a good Elder Scrolls game? Is it good at one of these things, or does it succeed with both?

Personally, with sales numbers its more the quarterly figures ill be interested in because that shows its staying power. Everyone is always excited and ready to play something new, its whether if it holds you in that's they key. 

But I will say this, I have seen this type of community divide once before and the mentioning of poor sales and that was with TSW. Which I really enjoyed, but... look how that did. 

I am not knocking the game, I honestly don't care who plays it. If anything I am happy that fellow nomads are able to find their MMO home.

  kaiser3282

Tipster

Joined: 5/21/08
Posts: 2641

4/18/14 6:23:17 AM#51
Originally posted by paparios
Who Cares! I dont like ESO and i m not going to play it, but who really cares about sales? If i liked it i would play it no matter number sales. Same goes to WildStar that i ll be playing. I dont care about anything else besides if i find a game fun! No reviews, no trolls, no haters, no lovers, no payment models, not anything. I ll play as long as i have fun. Thats all.

Please stop using common sense on these forums. You might cause a catastrophe. Everyone knows that if someone says (or "predicts") that sales are / will be bad, or that Xfire numbers are bad, or that random forum trolls think it is bad that nobody is allowed to like something EVER! I mean come on man. Diablo 3. Amazing sales and a bunch of 9-10/10 reviews. BEST freaking game ever right? Everyone who touched the game was awed by it and hasnt played anything else since because it was so amazing.

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1259

4/18/14 6:46:00 AM#52

vgchartz are "an estimate".

They do claim to include pre-orders - hence the reason there are PS4 and XB1 "sales"; they do claim to include digital.

 

How accurate are they? Well as FFXiV was mentioned above: 

vgchartz numbers list 2013 sales as 684,113 and 2014 sales as 55,832. Total: 739,976.

Registrations were assumed to be sales in the Gamasutra article I was reading - but not subs! As far as I can tell there hasn't been any free trials of the games or buddy passes given out so, as the Gamasutra article states, registrations = sales (on PC, PS3 and PS4). Not exactly a huge number of sales but more than the vgchartz number - and probably released because Sony is selling its stake in Square Enix.

This doesn't mean the vgchartz numbers are wrong for TESO but it underscore the fact that they are an estimate.

 

However the point about Raptr and XFire is accurate. If TESO has been selling well then these services should have shown an increase, a rising trend. They don't. Which suggests low post-launch sales which ties in to why the retail price has come down etc.

  Margrave

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/10/06
Posts: 496

4/18/14 6:49:30 AM#53
I bought digital. Only way to buy mmorpg titles these days. Love it.
  jesteralways

Elite Member

Joined: 3/17/13
Posts: 594

4/18/14 6:55:22 AM#54
Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

Those numbers are not taking intoo account the digital sales

 

Most (almost all) people bought digital copies...

 

On top of that, we have allways known that ESO aims fully at the console market and that the PC market is only a aftertought and an open world testing environment.

 

 

 

On top of that... Forbes is still trying to proof their point.....  Its not objective journalisme, if you try everything to proof your PoV...

I agree. i think they will save themselves with console sales, the game seems like it was developed only with consoles in mind. 

i want an open world, no phasing, no instancing.i want meaningful owpvp.i want player driven economy.i want meaningful crafting.i want awesome exploration, a sense of thrill.i want ow housing with a meaningful effect on my entire gameplay experience, not just some instanced crap.i want all of these free of cost, i don't wanna pay you a cent, game devs can eat grass and continue developing game for me.
Seems like that is the current consensus of western mmo players.

  Soandsoso

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/08/12
Posts: 457

4/18/14 6:58:51 AM#55

SW:ToR.....its till around....and doing well.

 

Along with all the other supposed failures.

  SKurj

Novice Member

Joined: 7/23/04
Posts: 27

4/18/14 6:59:58 AM#56
The chart is couple weeks old, but of note.. ESO was the #1 game in sales globally for that week.  Can't be doing too badly..
  User Deleted
4/18/14 7:01:03 AM#57
How does VGChartz include digital sales directly from the publisher if the publishers aren't releasing sales figures?
  Rusque

Elite Member

Joined: 6/08/10
Posts: 1712

4/18/14 7:03:39 AM#58
Originally posted by Soandsoso

SW:ToR.....its till around....and doing well.

 

Along with all the other supposed failures.

I think you misunderstand the trolls. See they don't actually hate ESO, they really really want to play it, so they're hoping it fails as a P2P model so that they can play it F2P. It's a great tactic, constantly blast a newly released game hoping to convince people not to buy it or sub, then when it goes F2P, all of a sudden a couple million people are interested in it and then the forums are full of posts like, "Hey, it's actually a pretty good game!"

F2P has created this monster and it is poison on the industry.

  movros99

Novice Member

Joined: 7/31/11
Posts: 75

4/18/14 7:12:55 AM#59
Originally posted by Soandsoso

SW:ToR.....its till around....and doing well.

 

Along with all the other supposed failures.

That is not the popular opinion or perception. Either way is fell drastically short of its projections and EA is a terrible company. 

  Bigdaddyx

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/24/10
Posts: 1558

4/18/14 7:13:08 AM#60
I hope Zeni releases the sale numbers by end of month to put an end to all speculation. Although i have a gut feeling that sales were not spectacular hence the delay in annoucement.
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