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Elder Scrolls Online

Elder Scrolls Online 

General Discussion  » 5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.

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544 posts found
  Braindome

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/06/11
Posts: 606

3/20/14 4:25:08 PM#141
Originally posted by CasaFranky

i played beta and i wont buy it.
whers the logic in 5 milion beta players and 10 million customers?!

That's easy you take X amount of beta players and divide them by Bebe's Kids, then you add a little cayenne pepper and BAM!

 

Like x 56

  Ikonis

Hard Core Member

Joined: 10/14/11
Posts: 187

3/20/14 4:25:29 PM#142
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by Knotwood

And since when has Beta tester numbers EVER been greater then the amount gamers who bought the game?

for context

RIFT -- had 1 million registered accts pre launch

http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/02/24/trion-worlds-rift-has-surpassed-1-million-registered-accounts/

it was 4 months before 1 million bought the game

http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/06/07/rift-approaching-the-one-million-sell-through-mark/

 

buying a game isnt what sub games are about

need to retain the subs

 

 

I probably should have said AAA game.  Rift was a rarity, one that was practicly giving their game away for free upon launch, it was an exception to a lot of AAA games out there.  No one ever heard of Trion before Rift and it was pretty much in the category of a lot of A rated games rather then AAA, it had to earn its AAA status, was a small company which was no different then any indie start up or other game company who wants to be AAA.

Rift was heavily advertised with a AAA ad budget. There were even ads in movie theaters. It also cost the same as a AAA game at release. When you get proven wrong, changing the requirements of your question is pretty desperate. 

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1115

 
OP  3/20/14 4:25:42 PM#143
Originally posted by ChudzUK

ESO will be dead after 2-3 months. Personally wouldn't play it even if it went F2P! Played beta a few times and it sucks, it's significantly worse than Skyrim in its immersion and story telling and the multiplayer is boring and easy.

They are going to be relying on preorders to make there money as no one will be playing after a few months. This is why they are trying to hype the game to death and lying about pre orders numbers etc.

That sounds more like a review then a statement about the numbers backed up by any theories or facts.

  elitero

Novice Member

Joined: 1/30/12
Posts: 297

3/20/14 4:29:19 PM#144
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by ChudzUK

ESO will be dead after 2-3 months. Personally wouldn't play it even if it went F2P! Played beta a few times and it sucks, it's significantly worse than Skyrim in its immersion and story telling and the multiplayer is boring and easy.

They are going to be relying on preorders to make there money as no one will be playing after a few months. This is why they are trying to hype the game to death and lying about pre orders numbers etc.

That sounds more like a review then a statement about the numbers backed up by any theories or facts.

Pot Meet Kettle

  Nadia

Tipster

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 11709

3/20/14 4:29:25 PM#145
Originally posted by Knotwood

Turbine has *never* released sub #s for LOTRO   (part of the perks of being a private mmo company)

Nielson ratings put them up there, and others have made charts with their yearly earnings on tax files.   That's pretty solid if you ask me, they even bragged about the neilson ratings themselves.

I agree Nielson counts as a measurement

but its difficult to compare with other mmos that are giving concrete sub #s

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1115

 
OP  3/20/14 4:33:06 PM#146
Originally posted by Ikonis
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by Knotwood

And since when has Beta tester numbers EVER been greater then the amount gamers who bought the game?

for context

RIFT -- had 1 million registered accts pre launch

http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/02/24/trion-worlds-rift-has-surpassed-1-million-registered-accounts/

it was 4 months before 1 million bought the game

http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/06/07/rift-approaching-the-one-million-sell-through-mark/

 

buying a game isnt what sub games are about

need to retain the subs

 

 

I probably should have said AAA game.  Rift was a rarity, one that was practicly giving their game away for free upon launch, it was an exception to a lot of AAA games out there.  No one ever heard of Trion before Rift and it was pretty much in the category of a lot of A rated games rather then AAA, it had to earn its AAA status, was a small company which was no different then any indie start up or other game company who wants to be AAA.

Rift was heavily advertised with a AAA ad budget. There were even ads in movie theaters. It also cost the same as a AAA game at release. When you get proven wrong, changing the requirements of your question is pretty desperate. 

Having AAA ad budgets and being known as an AAA company when you launch is two different things.  I remember they went to $15 within one month on their game, and signing up anyone and everyone they could just to get known.  It worked for them, they are successful now, but they had to work to get there...  the fact that their beta testers were more then their launch should tell you where their starting reputation was at.  

 

We got Elder Scrolls Series with Zenimax/betheda.  Everyone knows what an elder scrolls game is and if they did not before Skyrim they do now.   Zenimax has a AAA repugation before launch and a history unlike trion had,   just like blizzard and final fantasy, they had a player base before they launched.  So you cant base all AAA games off of rift, and rifts beta testing  numbers selling less then its tester amounts, because it wasn't starting out as an AAA company before it was launched.  

  alexhpy98721

Novice Member

Joined: 3/09/10
Posts: 239

3/20/14 4:35:16 PM#147

No chance for it to get 10 millions in one year... but yes if they work and fix the bugs it can do well enough.

It doesn`t have the appeal to get 10m tho... many things are missing for example you are limited to 5 skills, you can`t even see your own buffs, no arena pvp... 

My opinion anyway and yes i agree if they fix the bugs i will play this hopefully for a long time....

  ChudzUK

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/28/08
Posts: 37

3/20/14 4:35:46 PM#148
It was a review lol. There is nothing to discuss on there numbers lol it's just a marketing tactic, it might be true 5 mill beta accounts but you know there only going to be like 2 million players that buy it
  SavageHorizon

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/14/13
Posts: 1578

3/20/14 4:41:40 PM#149
Originally posted by Knotwood

So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.

 

Lol are you new to mmo's, seriously?

The bit in yellow especially made me lol.

Talk about hook line and sinker lol.

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  rodingo

Elite Member

Joined: 1/18/07
Posts: 1844

3/20/14 4:52:20 PM#150
We will quickly learn if this title will sink or swim.  I hope Zenimax has plan B and C ready to go just in case.

 

 

"If I offended you, you needed it" -Corey Taylor

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1115

 
OP  3/20/14 4:53:41 PM#151
Originally posted by ChudzUK
It was a review lol. There is nothing to discuss on there numbers lol it's just a marketing tactic, it might be true 5 mill beta accounts but you know there only going to be like 2 million players that buy it

I know its hard to believe that a game has finally came that will be close to 5 million at launch. Im so excited for it.  Would you have ever believed 5 million beta test numbers, even if duplicated, your going to tell me over 1 million people made 5 accounts to get into beta?  I find that really far out there.  I'm sure 100-200k might have duplicated some accounts but I just don't see 1 million people trying that hard.   I put the actual testers at around 4 million at least.

 

Like most people, they don't want to spoil their gameplay by playing every beta also, so your going to have a lot of people who tried it and did not want to ruin their experience with more game plays, so its smart that zenimax does not release actual numbers of people who played in beta.   

 

If 4 million people beta tested this game, that's stil going to result in over 4 million players in the first month.  Expecilly witht he AAA title behind it having that many beta testers.   If you look at companies like SOE, when they release a game like Dragon Nest,t hey easily got over the number of beta testers on day one just because of how many fans they had before launch of it.

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1115

 
OP  3/20/14 4:55:16 PM#152
Originally posted by rodingo
We will quickly learn if this title will sink or swim.  I hope Zenimax has plan B and C ready to go just in case.

 

 

considering the overlow servers, I think they are not worried about sinking as much as they are about overselling the game, and going over server capacity.  or they wouldn't waste that much money to have those back up servers ready to roll out, as it costs money for all that.

 

When you start getting into the fan numbers of elderscrolls, and skyrim sales of 20 million copies, you never know just how big or little it will go,  but you can bet, that there will be swing numbers in the miillions on this game.

  Bad.dog

Elite Member

Joined: 5/20/10
Posts: 1140

3/20/14 4:56:56 PM#153
I'll say it sells more than GW2  did by the end of this year ...
  reeereee

Elite Member

Joined: 3/22/13
Posts: 762

3/20/14 4:59:31 PM#154
As much as I love to criticize ESO it's still way better than FFXIV and Yoshi's recent comments indicate FFXIV is well over 500k subscribers and probably more in the 700k range.  I have a hard time imagining that ESO won't end up with more subscribers than FFXIV so I think most of the doomsday scenarios people are coming up with of 500k or under subscribers are not realistic.
  Arglebargle

Elite Member

Joined: 6/13/07
Posts: 1162

3/20/14 5:04:07 PM#155

If ESO sells 2 million copies (ie 10% of Skyrim sales), even at the net profit rate, we are talking hundreds of millions of dollars.   Game development essentially paid for, everything else is gravy.

 

Given other recent MMO release data, that number is doable.

If you are holding out for the perfect game, the only game you play will be the waiting one.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

3/20/14 5:08:40 PM#156
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by lizardbones

So what you're saying is that after the four month mark, more people bought the game than registered to get information on the game?

i agreed with the Op

but I also clarified that sub retention matters more than bought copies

 

Yeah, that's really the big deal, isn't it?  If they only sold two million copies of the game, but kept a million subscribers, they would probably be very happy and the game would look like a success.  If they sell five million copies and keep a million people they would be even happier, but everyone will call the game a failure.

 

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  Zeddakis

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/11/11
Posts: 97

3/20/14 5:09:33 PM#157
I'll make you a bet if you are so sure. If they hit 10 million subs in the first year I will never post here again. If they don't you will never post anything like this prediction here again. Deal?
  SalmonMan

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/06/10
Posts: 80

3/20/14 5:10:07 PM#158
Originally posted by Knotwood

http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

 

Here is a few statements I would like to talk about from this article:

 

1): "If you’re reading this, you’re probably one of the 5 million people that have registered for the ESO beta, and likely participated in one of our large beta tests."

My thoughts: That is a HUGE number of registerd beta testers, if even a fraction of them buy the game, were seeing going to see at least 5 million starting. I don't recall a game in history with this many registered beta testers. The testers numbers tend to be lower then the people who buy a game, so How many do you think are going to buy the game, if were seeing that many testers alone?

 

 

2): "Based on the existing number of our beta signups and because we anticipate that the ESO community will continue to grow after launch, we plan to add capacity to keep up with demand in both our North American and European datacenters."

My thoughts: They looked at those beta numbers and expect it to grow even larger at launch. I'm saying 10 million in the first year easily after seeing those beta registration numbers.

 

 

3): And just to be fully prepared, we are adding overflow servers in the event we get even more players on day one than we are now forecasting.

My thoughts: They have a plan to make sure there is overflow servers for millions more on day one if there is too many people. Something I think future games are going to need considering the larger number of gamers we are starting to see.

 


4): If player demand overwhelms our planned capacity and a queue has to be formed, we will offer waiting players the option to begin playing right away on an overflow server.

My thoughts: They are doing this part right. people don't want to wait in ques, so this is a great option. Everything you get on an overflow server will allow you to bring back to the megaservers. Only problem is you will not have a friend list because its not hooked up to the main database.

 


5): And as many of you have asked, the answer is yes to one additional benefit – we will offer various subscription discount packs beginning on April 4.

My thoughts: I sure hope they offer a lifetime... This game is going to be around for a very long time.

 


So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.

 

LOL.

What drugs are you taking, and where might I procure some?

They game is just the same ol, same ol, with a Elder Scroll paint job. That's not to say many won't find it enjoyable. But it's nothing new or innovative. It's a weird half breed of ES and MMO - and it doesn't do either particularly well really.

  Stizzled

Tipster

Joined: 9/13/07
Posts: 1073

Kill Your Heroes

3/20/14 5:20:33 PM#159

I signed up for the beta, received keys for every weekend but never played, I also have no intention of buying the game. How many of those 5 million are just like me?

 

I'd imagine that almost everyone who had a passing interest in this game signed up for beta. How many out of that 5 million are actually planning on purchasing the game is the real question. The OP seems to be assuming that pretty much everyone of them are, which is amazingly naive.

 

I have no doubt that, based on the IP alone (and amazingly enough, lack of knowledge about the required sub), the game can reach at least 5 million sales across all platforms by the end of the year. But, 10 million? I think some people, the OP especially, are overestimating the popularity of not only the IP but MMOs in general.

  reeereee

Elite Member

Joined: 3/22/13
Posts: 762

3/20/14 5:22:26 PM#160
Originally posted by lizardbones
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by lizardbones

So what you're saying is that after the four month mark, more people bought the game than registered to get information on the game?

i agreed with the Op

but I also clarified that sub retention matters more than bought copies

 

Yeah, that's really the big deal, isn't it?  If they only sold two million copies of the game, but kept a million subscribers, they would probably be very happy and the game would look like a success.  If they sell five million copies and keep a million people they would be even happier, but everyone will call the game a failure.

 

Are you sure about that?  Given the current market, I think anyone not named WoW retaining 1 million subs would be considered a success.

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