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General Discussion  » Predictions on Beta invites tomorrow

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55 posts found
  rodarin

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/21/10
Posts: 437

 
OP  2/03/14 9:42:34 AM#1

I think its 50/50. If they were 'smart' they would have one this week. Assuming they have a new build ready since the last one. Or at least an updated build. Which they should since it is common that what most people see isnt the build that they have ready to go.

 

If they do I would like to see Imperials for EVERYONE, that way people who have or have not ordered the CE could make a semi informed decision as to what they are REALLY getting. Double edged sword maybe. But it would be a gesture of good faith. Some people might upgrade immediately, some people might order the CE if they have been on the fence, others might try and downgrade. Calculated risk. If the product is good however then they would do it.

 

But its getting crunch time right now. They havent increased their beta schedule one iota, If they have one tomorrow it will be a start. But it is still a little late to really start trying to change much. Which we know they arent doing anyway. But it is generally 6 weeks between betas, if they have one this week it will be 3 weeks since the last one.

 

But seriously at this point they cant keep calling them closed betas. They are doing so because that gives the defenders and fans a reason to chirp about why the NDA is still up. If they start an open beta session and dont drop the NDA it wouldnt make too much sense. Possible obviously but it is semi moot since if everyone who wanted to try the game could through an open beta session the NDA wouldnt matter.

 

I also think it completely is reliant on their numbers and whether they have as many preorders made as they thought they would. My own personal opinion is they have had a lot of pre orders made. BUT I dont think they met their goal. Thats why my overall thought is 50/50. Because I think there is a small chance 20% or so we dont see another beta session at all. Or maybe a controlled one where people who havent ordered yet get access to stuff they think might convince them to order.

 

Again its all about marketing. People who have already ordered are in the bag for the most part so they dont need to do anything to get them. Now if they include the Imperial as part of it then they might make another calculated risk.

 

But this company hasnt done anything yet that doesnt seem calculated. It might seem completely 'wrong' but there are definitely reasons behind everything they have done so far.

 

But I want to hear what people think. If there will be a beta event this week or not? If so what do we want to see? An ability to get out of the starter zones? Ability to start a max level toon with a decent amount of points to at least try PvP with? Have access to the racial unlock feature? Imperials for all? Rifts or anchors or whatever theyre called everywhere so we could actually see how they work with people around them? (4 player cap difficulty seems like a joke) What else?

  Sovrath

Elite Member

Joined: 1/06/05
Posts: 17214

2/03/14 9:59:14 AM#2
are we sure there are invites tomorrow?
  Rusque

Elite Member

Joined: 6/08/10
Posts: 1719

2/03/14 10:12:56 AM#3

I have no clue if there will be a beta this weekend, though I do think they should have an open beta soon for those who are on the fence.

Me, even if there is another beta (closed or open) I've already ordered my copy and don't want to play any more beta - I like to leave as much unexplored and unknown to discover at launch.

  rodarin

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/21/10
Posts: 437

 
OP  2/03/14 10:13:34 AM#4
Originally posted by Sovrath
are we sure there are invites tomorrow?

no thats why I wanted to see if people thought there would be. I think its 50/50. That is based solely on what they aid about accelerating their beta schedule. Which, since they said that they have had a total of one (special) beta session. Had they not made that statement I would say it is very unlikely we get any more closed beta session but maybe a small open beta one right before pre release/head start begins.

  asrlohz

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/29/11
Posts: 663

Alea iacta est, beloved Doomsayers.

2/03/14 10:24:41 AM#5
Originally posted by rodarin
Originally posted by Sovrath
are we sure there are invites tomorrow?

no thats why I wanted to see if people thought there would be. I think its 50/50. That is based solely on what they aid about accelerating their beta schedule. Which, since they said that they have had a total of one (special) beta session. Had they not made that statement I would say it is very unlikely we get any more closed beta session but maybe a small open beta one right before pre release/head start begins.

How can it be 50/50? Even if it's anytime this week it would still be 1/7 chance that it'll happen. And even so, that's only if we're certain that they would do it this week. So we need to add atleast two months into the equation. So it's about 1/59 that'll be tomorrow. And those are the most realistic odds since it won't launch for another 59 days, early access excluded.

  Lord.Bachus

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/14/07
Posts: 8599

I believe in life before death... So dont forget to enjoy it while you still can.

2/03/14 10:32:15 AM#6
Originally posted by Sovrath
are we sure there are invites tomorrow?

Just wondering if everyone that was in the last weekend stress beta test is stil in or will atleast get another chance at an invite

Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)

  lafaiel

Novice Member

Joined: 12/07/05
Posts: 96

2/03/14 10:54:58 AM#7
Originally posted by asrlohz

 

 

How can it be 50/50? Even if it's anytime this week it would still be 1/7 chance that it'll happen. And even so, that's only if we're certain that they would do it this week. So we need to add atleast two months into the equation. So it's about 1/59 that'll be tomorrow. And those are the most realistic odds since it won't launch for another 59 days, early access excluded.

How can it not be 50/50 , they either send it out or they don't.

  Mackaveli44

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/26/08
Posts: 128

2/03/14 11:00:24 AM#8
I do know that the patcher for ESO beta has updated....  Im hoping for a beta.  I still cant figure out what route for my toon Im going :(  The latest video they released seemed like a more solid build then from previous betas so Im excited to see what they have in store.
  Iselin

The Listener

Joined: 3/04/08
Posts: 3804

2/03/14 11:09:21 AM#9

I was thinking the same yesterday, the time seems right... pretty good chance for next weekend.

 

 

  DAS1337

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/28/07
Posts: 2379

2/03/14 11:35:51 AM#10

I think it would be a good idea.  Give people a distraction to try and quell the rage.

 

I'm going to throw in my two cent here.  The Imperial race being offered has less affect on the game itself.  That's more of a marketing thing that people are upset at.  The slippery slope concept, so to speak.

 

Unlocking alliance racials is what will affect the game the most.  Playing with races that should be your enemies will be really annoying and weird.  I think alliance PvP will be weird because of this decision.  People like to use excuses like betrayers are normal and certain races will deal with racism between factions.  Those are just ill-informed theories.  I've played games where racism was supposed to be present, and it simply isn't.  Today's community can't be bothered with something like that.  Betraying your alliance makes sense, but not at the scale it will be at.  There are going to be an insane amount of pre-orders, so it's not like you'll only see enemy races in your alliance rarely.  It's going to be very common.  Not to mention, this sort of thing will either be unlockable in-game, or it will be sold in a cash shop.  So you can kiss three differing alliances with locked races and separate ideology goodbye.  You're going to pick from team yellow, blue, and red.  

 

So, all in all, even though I think it would be a good distraction, I don't think it will change anything in the end.  They have made a decision to risk the overall longevity of their game to increase box sales.  It is what it is now.  It's too late to change anything.

  asrlohz

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/29/11
Posts: 663

Alea iacta est, beloved Doomsayers.

2/03/14 12:14:51 PM#11
Originally posted by rodarin
Originally posted by asrlohz
Originally posted by rodarin
Originally posted by Sovrath
are we sure there are invites tomorrow?

no thats why I wanted to see if people thought there would be. I think its 50/50. That is based solely on what they aid about accelerating their beta schedule. Which, since they said that they have had a total of one (special) beta session. Had they not made that statement I would say it is very unlikely we get any more closed beta session but maybe a small open beta one right before pre release/head start begins.

How can it be 50/50? Even if it's anytime this week it would still be 1/7 chance that it'll happen. And even so, that's only if we're certain that they would do it this week. So we need to add atleast two months into the equation. So it's about 1/59 that'll be tomorrow. And those are the most realistic odds since it won't launch for another 59 days, early access excluded.

because they have always sent out invites on Tuesday, I doubt very highly they change that pattern now. In other wordes if there isnt an announcement of a beta tomorrow there wont be a beta this weekend. Thats just how it goes. Now they COULD do it on Wed or Tursday I suppose but doubtful.

 

But even though youre trying to be clever or an ass youre still wrong. The odds of it being TOMORROW are still 50/50 either there will be invites tomorrow or there wont, two options. Whether theyre later on doesnt change those odds one bit.

 

But nice try a troll is still a troll and anyone with a higher IQ can still spot them even if theyre trying to prove how smart they are by use maths.....

Since when is mathematics considered trolling? It's not my fault you cannot make simple calculations.

  IDontThinkSoNo

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/22/13
Posts: 63

2/03/14 12:19:26 PM#12
Personally I hope the Imperials are never released to the peasants.
  asrlohz

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/29/11
Posts: 663

Alea iacta est, beloved Doomsayers.

2/03/14 12:20:53 PM#13
Originally posted by lafaiel
Originally posted by asrlohz

 

 

How can it be 50/50? Even if it's anytime this week it would still be 1/7 chance that it'll happen. And even so, that's only if we're certain that they would do it this week. So we need to add atleast two months into the equation. So it's about 1/59 that'll be tomorrow. And those are the most realistic odds since it won't launch for another 59 days, early access excluded.

How can it not be 50/50 , they either send it out or they don't.

Because that's not how you calculate percentage , mate. You need to take the whole (That would be 100%) and then split it with the part and that will grant you a fraction. You will then multiply that fraction with 100 and you will get the percentage.

 

So the only way it can be 50% chance that it comes out tomorrow is if it's randomly choosing between tomorrow and for example next thursday. This is literally gradeschool mathematics.   Thing is, since we don't know the whole we can't calculate the percentage. So we have to assume that the whole is two days. But it most likely isn't. It can be anywhere between 1 to 59.

 

 

1 divided by 2 equals ½

½ times 100 = 50.

 

  gatheris

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/09/06
Posts: 984

2/03/14 12:22:08 PM#14

@asrlohz
 

the skill line will be

  asrlohz

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/29/11
Posts: 663

Alea iacta est, beloved Doomsayers.

2/03/14 12:32:43 PM#15
If we can assume that the next beta invites will be released on a tuesday, the whole will be 8. Divide 1/8 and you'll get 0,125. Multiply that by 100 and you'll get 12,5%

So, in reality it's 12,5% chance that the invitations will be released tomorrow.

 

Have fun, end of thread.

  rodarin

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/21/10
Posts: 437

 
OP  2/03/14 1:21:42 PM#16
Originally posted by asrlohz
If we can assume that the next beta invites will be released on a tuesday, the whole will be 8. Divide 1/8 and you'll get 0,125. Multiply that by 100 and you'll get 12,5%

So, in reality it's 12,5% chance that the invitations will be released tomorrow.

 

Have fun, end of thread.

WTH are you talking about I said TOMORROW not 'what are the chances we see a beta invite BEFORE release or head start?'

 

You calculation is what are the chances we see a beta invite in the weeks remaining. But youre also wrong because they could technically have more than one beta in a single week. Although you did qualify that at least. But if you assume like I do originally they do invites on Tuesdays and Tuesdays only there are 8 Tuesdays before head start (I think I didnt verify) therefore 12.5% would be the chances of there being a beta invite at any given time between now and then.

 

Since when are TOMORROW and "any Tuesday between now and release" the same thing?

 

Again poor trolling or poor math skills. You might want to hire a probability tutor.

  Joejc7135

Novice Member

Joined: 5/06/13
Posts: 204

2/03/14 1:41:43 PM#17

I hope I get a shot at the game the next beta weekend...

 

I have some friends that tried it but won't break NDA to tell me anything...My one friend did say that he played it for 2 hours and un-installed...he said if I wanted to see what it was like that I should go wipe my ass with sandpaper for 2hours and see how much fun it is. That doesn't really tell me much about why he didn't like it though. A pretty strong opinion though...To me it looks and sounds good...which is usually a bad sign these days. In fact this game reminds me alot of age of conan.

  Nemesis7884

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/21/10
Posts: 491

2/03/14 1:49:39 PM#18
Originally posted by Lord.Bachus
Originally posted by Sovrath
are we sure there are invites tomorrow?

Just wondering if everyone that was in the last weekend stress beta test is stil in or will atleast get another chance at an invite

yes, they said so - once your in your in unless you get banned for nda violations...

and its 13.74%...of course!

  Axxar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/09/08
Posts: 2005

"See how I reward those who fail me!"

2/03/14 1:53:27 PM#19

I predict a 100% chance there will be a post after this one.

  asrlohz

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/29/11
Posts: 663

Alea iacta est, beloved Doomsayers.

2/03/14 3:07:04 PM#20
Originally posted by rodarin
Originally posted by asrlohz
If we can assume that the next beta invites will be released on a tuesday, the whole will be 8. Divide 1/8 and you'll get 0,125. Multiply that by 100 and you'll get 12,5%

So, in reality it's 12,5% chance that the invitations will be released tomorrow.

 

Have fun, end of thread.

WTH are you talking about I said TOMORROW not 'what are the chances we see a beta invite BEFORE release or head start?'

 

You calculation is what are the chances we see a beta invite in the weeks remaining. But youre also wrong because they could technically have more than one beta in a single week. Although you did qualify that at least. But if you assume like I do originally they do invites on Tuesdays and Tuesdays only there are 8 Tuesdays before head start (I think I didnt verify) therefore 12.5% would be the chances of there being a beta invite at any given time between now and then.

 

Since when are TOMORROW and "any Tuesday between now and release" the same thing?

 

Again poor trolling or poor math skills. You might want to hire a probability tutor.

Mate, I already said 12,5% is the probability. And the "Tomorrow the beta invites will be going out" is nothing more than a guess. Nothing mathematical with that at all.

And regarding the text marked in red:

Those are the odds that we will see it tomorrow. You can only make it 50% if it's a "cointoss"(A random outcome with equal probability). Only way your estimate could be correct is if you could only count up to two.

 

Anyhow, for someone who's 35 years old and lives in the United States you sure have poor grammar and an awful mathematical understanding. In the end, only someone completely ignorant would argue with what I just wrote.

 

 

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