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Elder Scrolls Online

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General Discussion  » Forbes Predicting Biggest Disaster of 2014

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323 posts found
  ViperDragon

Novice Member

Joined: 1/04/14
Posts: 102

1/04/14 1:42:04 PM#201

I'm optimistic.

Although, I'll say hopeful is perhaps a better word.  I've been looking forward to this since it was announced.  I must have put in 500 hours into Skyrim, so to have something new to play with in this universe, and a proper multiplayer (as opposed to the Mod which, though appreciated, has never worked well) is really exciting.  Keeping my fingers, toes, and eyes crossed that Forbes is wrong!

A great list of free games (mostly MMORPGs): http://www.mytop10games.com/

  SuperXero89

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/16/09
Posts: 2607

1/04/14 1:49:26 PM#202
Originally posted by DocBrody

It will be a lot better than SWTOR for sure, that can be seen easily from gameplay footage already, so it won´t fail as hard as SWTOR.

 

No one can beat the level of fail that SWTOR was, not even TESO. But it will switch to buy to play and paid DLCs soon after launch, probably similiar to TSW which is running great now and has lots of players.

Oh you mean like SW:TOR?

 

The level of objectivity on this board always amazes me.

  TangentPoint

Elite Member

Joined: 2/12/12
Posts: 1104

The "Real Game" begins at character creation.

1/04/14 1:58:44 PM#203
Originally posted by DamonVile
 

I think a more appropriate famous quot for the forum going mmo genre is...

If I asked them what they wanted, they would of said faster horses.

That's a wonderfully appropriate quote for the MMO community.

My philosophy on MMORPGs:

Leveling is what happens while you're playing the rest of the game.

Don't worry about levels. Just play.

  JJ82

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/02/13
Posts: 902

1/04/14 2:16:29 PM#204
Originally posted by Drakynn

The Forbes "article" is not a analysis of any kind and only a opinion piece offering no real empirical data to back it up,the only thing close is the author's own opinion on what happened with SW:TOR,which is the author's only real argument and a dubious one at that.

Pure horse manure. Age of Conan, another famous IP that failed to target its audience. Lord of the Rings online, another famous IP that failed to target its audience. And neither of them attempted to target console players. Look at the sales of FF14, more copies on the PC sold than on the console (digital sales being highest) and it isn't even close to FF11 back when subscriptions were cool. Everything points to TESO being a disappointment.

Do I hope it is? Hell yes, the genre needs as many corporate led failures as possible to get their hands off the genre so game makers can make the games they want, not the games corporations want made in a way to bring in as much money as possible.

Games need to be the focus again, not profits. A game made with creating something new in mind will bring the profits. Corporations only see green, not the product.

"People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  Purutzil

Elite Member

Joined: 10/02/11
Posts: 2828

The Critical Hit Pretzel!

1/04/14 2:22:26 PM#205
Honestly, i think the hype fro ESO has been diminished greatly as it is that ESO when it comes out likely in a 'disapointing' state, it won't be nearly as bad as say SWTOR that had just vastly more hype around it. I think expectations have been lowered enough that people will be far less disapointed in the game. While Is till feel it will be 'meh' and not have that big of numbers, I just don't see it being the big train wreck deal SWTOR was. So perhaps a big 'disaster' so to speak in 2014, but I doubt anywhere near what it was for SWTOR.
  TangentPoint

Elite Member

Joined: 2/12/12
Posts: 1104

The "Real Game" begins at character creation.

1/04/14 3:42:40 PM#206
Originally posted by Purutzil
Honestly, i think the hype fro ESO has been diminished greatly as it is that ESO when it comes out likely in a 'disapointing' state, it won't be nearly as bad as say SWTOR that had just vastly more hype around it. I think expectations have been lowered enough that people will be far less disapointed in the game. While Is till feel it will be 'meh' and not have that big of numbers, I just don't see it being the big train wreck deal SWTOR was. So perhaps a big 'disaster' so to speak in 2014, but I doubt anywhere near what it was for SWTOR.

What didn't help with TOR, either, is the unfettered arrogance of Bioware/EA in promoting/marketing it. It was obnoxious. EA/Bioware telling people, essentially, you don't know what you want... we do. 

The more you hype something up, the greater the expectations of it, the bigger the disappointment when they're not met. Bioware/EA set the bar far too high for that game before it even came out. The raving fans around it only made it worse. I remember it was particularly obnoxious around here, where it seemed everyone was in on the love-fest.

"It will change the way MMOs are designed forever"  -  Remember that claim? Yeah. Didn't happen.

 

My philosophy on MMORPGs:

Leveling is what happens while you're playing the rest of the game.

Don't worry about levels. Just play.

  Kasp3r

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/22/06
Posts: 69

1/04/14 3:58:00 PM#207
Forbes came to the conclusion that teso will be a failure mainly because of the monthly sub? Coz that's all I got out of that article
  Howry

Novice Member

Joined: 3/15/09
Posts: 85

1/04/14 4:02:36 PM#208
Hard to argue.
  Muke

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/07
Posts: 1534

1/04/14 4:10:06 PM#209
Originally posted by coretex666

Does this make any sense to you?

If SWTOR does not meet its expectations but will close with a good profit for the investors, noone from that side will complain.

 

"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  Nephelai

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/29/13
Posts: 159

1/04/14 4:16:04 PM#210
Originally posted by TerminalDeity
We NEED these corporate cash-grab MMOs to fail. Once they become poison to investors, they will stop being made, and the genre will flourish and see true innovation. 

You can only squeeze so much innovation into free or a $3.75 per week sub. What we need is someone ballsy enough to innovate and then charge us a fair value price. It's very risky because the internet hyena's that want everything for free would likely band together and tear it down.

  sketocafe

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/19/11
Posts: 546

1/04/14 4:19:18 PM#211
Originally posted by DamonVile
Originally posted by JJ82
Originally posted by DamonVile

That isn't the definition of madness. It's just a quote from a very famous person taking a shot at some researchers.

And most of you seem to say making the same pile of crap using old ideas is why the genre is dying, what they really need to do is make a game with even older ideas and that's what people want.

You mean Albert Einstein..............

And your idea is to go back to making games like they were before the vast majority of players started playing MMOs, because that's what they want. No, its what YOU want because you have rose colored glasses on. Prove it, go back to playing DaoC, UO, EQ1 or AC1 and see how long you can stomach it. They are all still going. Go on, your style of game is still going. And also, TESO is not doing that. They are making a typical MMORPG the like of which has been done a dozen times already, the kind YOU stopped playing because its the same old tried thing.

Yup Albert Einstein /golfclap. Everything else...well..see the comma ? it's not me saying I want it. Keep reading and it might make more sense.

That quote has also been attributed to Ben Franklin and Mark Twain. It actually first appeared in a 1981 Narcanon test.

  JJ82

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/02/13
Posts: 902

1/04/14 4:21:33 PM#212
Originally posted by TangentPoint

What didn't help with TOR, either, is the unfettered arrogance of Bioware/EA in promoting/marketing it. It was obnoxious. EA/Bioware telling people, essentially, you don't know what you want... we do. 

 Basically what the makers of TESO did with their having to make realms to create our pride for us......because apparently we are too stupid to be able to form attachments and loyalties on our own. I sure didn't have any pride issues in SWG or even Anarchy Online. In fact, I enjoyed killing every Omni-Tek player I came across for being the corporate slaves they were!

Also loved hearing how they had to separate the races by those realms because we are too stupid to know who the enemy is if they didn't.

"People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  JJ82

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/02/13
Posts: 902

1/04/14 4:30:33 PM#213
Originally posted by sketocafe

That quote has also been attributed to Ben Franklin and Mark Twain. It actually first appeared in a 1981 Narcanon test.

 No, it actually first appeared as a Chinese proverb. "Insanity is doing the same thing in the same way and
expecting a different outcome", hence the attribute to Einstein because he so often used them in modern language. I wouldn't doubt its been in more than a few books.

"People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  Jerek_

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/08/04
Posts: 398

1/04/14 4:41:00 PM#214
blah blah blah I don't like subs is basically the article.  Using swtor as proof that people wont play sub games is stupid.  Obviously people will buy and play games even with subs, swtor actually does show that.  what they wont do is play a shitty game for long, much less pay a sub to do it.  Elder scrolls success or failure doesn't hinge on subs fees- what matters is, is it a good mmo?
  Jomsviking

Novice Member

Joined: 1/04/14
Posts: 4

1/04/14 5:05:50 PM#215

Forbes is a financial magazine and everything in it is from a pure finance point of view.

When they say 'successful' what they mean is did the investors get their money back with a profit. In the case of a game this means did it sell enough to recover the development costs as well as pay for retail margins, distribution, marketing/advertising ect.

Most of the money from sales goes to people other than the developers. If the developer gets 30% of the sales price they are doing well. So if a game sells for $60.00 probably less that $20.00 of that goes towards covering the development costs.

So a game with a development cost of $80 million would need over 4 million in sales at $60.00 a copy  to recover those costs. A game with a development cost of $100 million will need 5 million copies sold at $60.00 and a game with development costs of $200 million would need 10 million copies sold.

The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.

  Rylah

Elite Member

Joined: 2/25/09
Posts: 151

1/04/14 6:36:01 PM#216
Originally posted by Jomsviking

The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.

It doesn't need to sell 10 mio copies even in your example. 2 mio copies + 6 months retention is fine, since devs get, depending on their publishers organisation a larger share of subscription fees than on box sales. Also box sales are indeed as bad in revenue as you say, but the digital download editions you buy from the developer/publisher themselves are near 100% revenue.

I don't have data about how big the physical box share is compared to that of the digital editions but I would guess that the latter are on the rise. And then there are the extra expensive and revenue generating collectors editions of course.

So with 2-3 mio copies sold in a mix and average retention rates they should at least cover the cost.

It will only be problematic when retention is horrible like it was in SWTOR.

  JJ82

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/02/13
Posts: 902

1/04/14 7:16:56 PM#217
Originally posted by Rylah
Originally posted by Jomsviking

The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.

It doesn't need to sell 10 mio copies even in your example. 2 mio copies + 6 months retention is fine, since devs get, depending on their publishers organisation a larger share of subscription fees than on box sales. Also box sales are indeed as bad in revenue as you say, but the digital download editions you buy from the developer/publisher themselves are near 100% revenue.

I don't have data about how big the physical box share is compared to that of the digital editions but I would guess that the latter are on the rise. And then there are the extra expensive and revenue generating collectors editions of course.

So with 2-3 mio copies sold in a mix and average retention rates they should at least cover the cost.

It will only be problematic when retention is horrible like it was in SWTOR.

 And then when you suddenly remember that once a game leaves beta and goes live you have massive server and bandwidth costs and then that 6 months to break even, becomes 12....which becomes 18 because of ongoing development and maintenance.

World of Warcraft took just over a year to break even and start making a profit and it didn't cost what modern MMOs are costing to make.

"People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  killahh

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/25/04
Posts: 455

As famous as the unknown soldier

1/04/14 7:45:32 PM#218
Originally posted by JJ82
Originally posted by Rylah
Originally posted by Jomsviking

The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.

It doesn't need to sell 10 mio copies even in your example. 2 mio copies + 6 months retention is fine, since devs get, depending on their publishers organisation a larger share of subscription fees than on box sales. Also box sales are indeed as bad in revenue as you say, but the digital download editions you buy from the developer/publisher themselves are near 100% revenue.

I don't have data about how big the physical box share is compared to that of the digital editions but I would guess that the latter are on the rise. And then there are the extra expensive and revenue generating collectors editions of course.

So with 2-3 mio copies sold in a mix and average retention rates they should at least cover the cost.

It will only be problematic when retention is horrible like it was in SWTOR.

 And then when you suddenly remember that once a game leaves beta and goes live you have massive server and bandwidth costs and then that 6 months to break even, becomes 12....which becomes 18 because of ongoing development and maintenance.

World of Warcraft took just over a year to break even and start making a profit and it didn't cost what modern MMOs are costing to make.

 

Of course not, they ripped off the best ideas of the time, stylized graphics are cheaper to produce, longer lasting, used a wildly popular IP, and the rest was history.

Gonada Dahung,over 20 years of mmorpg's and counting....Please Lord, let someone make a game that had all the awesomeness of UO, EQ and EVE...

  JJ82

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/02/13
Posts: 902

1/04/14 8:34:49 PM#219
Originally posted by killahh
Originally posted by JJ82

 And then when you suddenly remember that once a game leaves beta and goes live you have massive server and bandwidth costs and then that 6 months to break even, becomes 12....which becomes 18 because of ongoing development and maintenance.

World of Warcraft took just over a year to break even and start making a profit and it didn't cost what modern MMOs are costing to make.

Of course not, they ripped off the best ideas of the time, stylized graphics are cheaper to produce, longer lasting, used a wildly popular IP, and the rest was history.

 Correct, and TESO is ripping off barely popular ideas, graphics that are neither stylized nor compares to the wildly popular IPs and history wont care when it turns out to be another average MMO that struggles to survive due to its over abundance of mediocrity.

"People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  Drakynn

Novice Member

Joined: 3/02/08
Posts: 2051

1/04/14 9:07:36 PM#220
Originally posted by JJ82
Originally posted by Drakynn

The Forbes "article" is not a analysis of any kind and only a opinion piece offering no real empirical data to back it up,the only thing close is the author's own opinion on what happened with SW:TOR,which is the author's only real argument and a dubious one at that.

Pure horse manure. Age of Conan, another famous IP that failed to target its audience. Lord of the Rings online, another famous IP that failed to target its audience. And neither of them attempted to target console players. Look at the sales of FF14, more copies on the PC sold than on the console (digital sales being highest) and it isn't even close to FF11 back when subscriptions were cool. Everything points to TESO being a disappointment.

Do I hope it is? Hell yes, the genre needs as many corporate led failures as possible to get their hands off the genre so game makers can make the games they want, not the games corporations want made in a way to bring in as much money as possible.

Games need to be the focus again, not profits. A game made with creating something new in mind will bring the profits. Corporations only see green, not the product.

Just because you may agree with the opinion of the article doesn't lend it any factual weight nor does your personal dislike of TESO.AoC failed for reasons other than being subscription as did SW:TOR .LoTRO despite what you say did find it's audience and was profitable even to the end of it's  subscription service which by the way coincided with Turbine being bought out by Warner Bros who made the call.

There is no empirical evidence as of yet to support the "no one wants a subscription service" argument put forth in fact the initial sales of all the games you mention support a large segment of gamers that do want said subscription service but haven't found a game that has long term staying power to keep paying a sub fee.

Now TESO and WIldstar may indeed provide data that the subscription MMO is dead if the games turn out good and  initial sales are poor as is the first few months retention  but until then it's just opinion and guessing.

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