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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » Will there be an MMO in the near future that doesn't follow the downward trend?

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125 posts found
  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 583

 
OP  12/22/13 2:41:15 AM#1

Recently all MMOs we have seen has started big and dropped big time a couple of months.  Here are some examples including SWTOR and GW2.  I will use Google but there are plenty of other sources:

SWTOR, GW2, Rift, Warhammer Online, FFXIV

WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

WoW

Eve Online

So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

  Robokapp

Elite Member

Joined: 11/15/09
Posts: 4485

The only luck I had today was to have you as my opponent.

12/22/13 2:47:22 AM#2

it would have to be an MMO that has a very solid answer to the following question:

 

"After having played 10,000 hours, what will I be doing in-game on a weekly basis that will keep me excited and looking forward to achiving?"

 

short answer is "probably not". current MMO's look like this:

 

you can customize your character - ok it's done. now what.

you can build your house - done. now what.

you can explore different areas. - done, now what.

you can team up to kill powerful foes. - they're dead, what next?

participate in minigmes. - done. bored of them now what.

pvp - did every bg 100 times, now what.

sit in trade trolling - never gets boring but it's a little weak for an MMO.

 

To better illustrate what I mean...some people have been on the forums for nearly a decade.

 

WHY? Surely they'd be bored by now of reading, writing, clicking, repeating. There's a certain 'something' that keeps it interesting enough for them to return.

 

can MMOs capture that 'something' ? hint: community ties are critical.

  Fusion

Old School

Joined: 5/21/03
Posts: 1316

12/22/13 2:55:43 AM#3
Originally posted by Robokapp

To better illustrate what I mean...some people have been on the forums for nearly a decade.

How do you mean nearly? :P

 

Back on topic, probably not. But i'm having an itch that Wildstar will do pretty good, because in many ways it's "WoW 2.0", they just need to meet the needs of the locust herd and have a massive content patch ready to deploy within a month :D.

Currently playing: ESO

Waiting for: Class4.

Dead and Buried: NWO, GW2, SWTOR, Darkfall, AO, AC2, Vanguard, CoH/V, EnB, EVE, Neocron, FE, EQ, EQ2, DAoC, FFXI, FFXIV, SWG, WoW, and billions of eastern junks!

  Mr.Kujo

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/23/12
Posts: 359

“Discussion is impossible with someone who claims not to seek the truth, but already to possess it.”

12/22/13 3:32:34 AM#4
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

Recently all MMOs we have seen has started big and dropped big time a couple of months.  Here are some examples including SWTOR and GW2.  I will use Google but there are plenty of other sources:

SWTOR, GW2, Rift, Warhammer Online, FFXIV

WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

WoW

Eve Online

So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

 

I hope we wont see. It used to be 50k people gradually increasing over time to 70k and then dropping to 40k etc. Now we have 1 million people dropping to 300k, I call that progress. I hope we won't get back to the dark ages, when mmorpg was labeled to geeks.

Give me example of "old" mmorpgs, that have larger player base than the ones you mentioned as "dropping". It is normal, the bigger number of players, the bigger the drop. Back in the days there was nothing to drop from. Of course we are not using exceptions as any reliable statistic source (WoW etc.)

  LittleBoot

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/08/13
Posts: 336

12/22/13 3:46:40 AM#5

I would say that the prime for mmo's was around WOW vanilla/ TBC when subscribers hit their peak.  Funny, even in WOW back then,  mmo's were a very different animal to the light-weight easy-mode shit we get these days.  

I have commented on this before but all publishers try to cut away fat and end up taking a lot of lean meat with it- and this constant trimming seems to be the be-all and end-all of game design.  ArenaNet horribly ruined a great game design (GW1) exactly via this process (GW2) and it will continue to happen until we all wind up logging on once a week to set our character off on some autonomous journey to cap.  

  Sajman01

Novice Member

Joined: 2/11/13
Posts: 208

12/22/13 7:09:54 AM#6
I think you've already seen it.

Dota2/LoL are little mini mmos that play out over the course of 40 minutes as opposed to 4 years.
  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10377

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

12/22/13 8:06:17 AM#7

I don't think it's possible, unless the MMORPG releases with very little advertising and spreads only via word of mouth. Any new MMORPG with an advertising budget is going to draw in all the people who are interested in the game when it releases.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Kyleran

Bitter Vet™

Joined: 9/13/06
Posts: 18727

Fools find no pleasure in understanding, but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

12/22/13 8:08:03 AM#8
No, because MMOs now draw from a broader audience, one that wants to play multiple games in short, more casual sprints, (tourists I call them) who greatly inflate the numbers at launch but quickly move onwards, leaving the more long term players (the purists) to stick with it for the long haul, albeit in much smaller numbers.

"In these forums 'honest' seems to be a symonym for 'hates the game just like I do'" - ohioastro
Kyleran - Bitter Vet ™ since 2006
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon

  Nadia

Elite Member

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 11241

12/22/13 8:16:32 AM#9
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

what era?

as you stated, WOW, EVE (and Lineage) are the exceptions

 

before WOW existed,

game companies were facing similar hardships trying to get the numbers of Everquest

 

Microsoft pulled the plug on Mythica because they didnt think they could compete w SOE for mmos

 

Flood of games, too few players cause change in online realm

http://otherworlds31279.yuku.com/topic/1167/Online-games-failuresuccess-Boston-Globe-article#.Urbz_PbbmpI

Spurred by the success of EverQuest, lots of companies began launching persistent online role-playing games, without thinking through the demands of the market. "Too many products got created, to be used by too few customers," said Jeffrey Anderson, CEO of Westwood-based Turbine Entertainment Software, developer of another successful online game, Asheron's Call. "It's like we all decided we all wanted to create our own version of MTV."

Actually, it's worse. Nearly anybody who likes pop music might check out the various MTV imitators for a minute or two. But there are millions of gamers who'll never try an online role-playing game.

  BearKnight

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/24/13
Posts: 445

12/22/13 8:37:21 AM#10
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

what era?

as you stated, WOW, EVE (and Lineage) are the exceptions

 

before WOW existed,

game companies were facing similar hardships trying to get the numbers of Everquest

 

Microsoft pulled the plug on Mythica because they didnt think they could compete w SOE for mmos

 

Flood of games, too few players cause change in online realm

http://otherworlds31279.yuku.com/topic/1167/Online-games-failuresuccess-Boston-Globe-article#.Urbz_PbbmpI

He's talking about the era of good MMOs where hard work == actual fun things to do. You did relatively hard to do tasks that not 99% everyone else could do just given time. 

 

EQ, DAOC, Shadowbane, Asheron's Call, AC2, SWG, the list goes on.

 

He's talking about a return to the era of quality gameplay and graphics for their time rather than quick cash grabs that GW2, SWTOR, RIFT, WAR, and FF14 have recently done. Notice, those are only games that are worth mentioning. There are over 60 other "F2P" variants floating around that I was able to imitate with the latest Unity Engine in about a week of solid work. It's actually quite pathetic.

 

Thought i'd clarify for you :)

  anemo

Novice Member

Joined: 12/24/10
Posts: 698

12/22/13 8:54:55 AM#11

To be honest I think the community really needs to take some of the jade out of their glasses.    You're the one that changed not MMOs.

The largest factor tied to your gameplay is the difference in play from when you were 10 years younger, and now.

Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent.

"There are still vast swaths of our planet's surface in which it's surprisingly easy to lose things. Even a ship the size of a large building." Richard Fisher

  djazzy

Novice Member

Joined: 6/20/05
Posts: 3622

12/22/13 10:34:19 AM#12

no there won't

there are simply way more options nowadays

  Viper482

Hard Core Member

Joined: 11/04/10
Posts: 267

12/22/13 10:51:02 AM#13
Originally posted by anemo

To be honest I think the community really needs to take some of the jade out of their glasses.    You're the one that changed not MMOs.

The largest factor tied to your gameplay is the difference in play from when you were 10 years younger, and now.

Where the hell did you come up with this crap? I am sure it sounded all wise and philosophical in your head, trust me in that it reads completely the opposite. 

This is not even eligible as chalking it up as a  point of view, you are just wrong. You cannot tell me that today's MMO's have not changed from the likes of the traditional models of Asheron's, EQ, Daoc, UO, AO, etc. 

  anemo

Novice Member

Joined: 12/24/10
Posts: 698

12/22/13 7:47:11 PM#14
Originally posted by Viper482
Originally posted by anemo

To be honest I think the community really needs to take some of the jade out of their glasses.    You're the one that changed not MMOs.

The largest factor tied to your gameplay is the difference in play from when you were 10 years younger, and now.

Where the hell did you come up with this crap? I am sure it sounded all wise and philosophical in your head, trust me in that it reads completely the opposite. 

This is not even eligible as chalking it up as a  point of view, you are just wrong. You cannot tell me that today's MMO's have not changed from the likes of the traditional models of Asheron's, EQ, Daoc, UO, AO, etc. 

Regardless of the amount of change, the largest one is still going to be how the person changed over a decade ;), MMO dev time and adaptation is a lot slower than someone going from their early/late teens to their early/late twenties. 

Which means that MMO devs are stuck developing based on play habits that won't be nearly as prevalent/relevant/wanted by the time it's released.

Developers are also stuck listening to demands that are years old(from memory lane, on a game they no longer play, and forgot all the bad stuff about), likely something the poster themselves no longer wants at the time and pretty much not wanted by the time a MMO is developed.

OP is completely correct in the sense that the players now have options.  But the fact that all the developers developed their game based on the above two factors with a combination of there being a shallower pool to collect data(compared to now), means that all of their games end up pretty darn similar even if they had honest intentions of doing new things.   Which means that players can just choose to stick with their old game, or jump from game to game to get the same thing but with new content.

Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent.

"There are still vast swaths of our planet's surface in which it's surprisingly easy to lose things. Even a ship the size of a large building." Richard Fisher

  Guler

Novice Member

Joined: 3/14/05
Posts: 146

12/22/13 9:31:51 PM#15

Starting big and waning is a natural state for most forms of media. It isn't just MMOs it's with new books, movies, and comics. Best and most well known example is with box office sales, first weeks are huge, second and third weeks a little smaller, then by the forth week on, not so much. People get exposed to the content in the first week, some go back and view the content again, some tell their friends for week two and three, by week four anyone that was going to go see it in the theater has done so for the most part.

 

Sure, every once in a while one piece of media defies the odds and goes from no one hearing about it to becoming a nation wide best seller with a super loyal fan base, but those are few and far between.

 

  maplestone

Novice Member

Joined: 12/10/08
Posts: 3109

12/22/13 11:07:55 PM#16

Who's word of mouth do you trust?

There still exist games out there that started small and caught fire virally (eg: Minecraft).  I feel that most games that grow over time are the concepts people didn't expect would actually be fun ... so it's a little hard to predict them in advance.

  Helleri

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 5/26/08
Posts: 724

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”- Henry Ford

12/23/13 4:04:59 AM#17
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

Recently all MMOs we have seen has started big and dropped big time a couple of months.  Here are some examples including SWTOR and GW2.  I will use Google but there are plenty of other sources:

SWTOR, GW2, Rift, Warhammer Online, FFXIV

WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

WoW

Eve Online

So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

*sigh*

Everyone forgets about Eor

 

Seriously, It's older then WoW and EVE. And, it was the only MMO to actually cast it's own shadow under the OG f2p model while others withered under WoW's until Turbine took the leap with D&D online and went free-to-play (led by example). A crucial component of MMORPG history. Has worked hard enough at updating to at least have been nominated this year for a golden joystick (where as these other two were not in the running)...and still it gets left of people lists.

Qualifiers for failing to deliver on story (in a supposedly story driven MMORPG):
If my character starts out ship wrecked on a beach.
If my character has amnesia; But, is also somehow the chosen one.
If my character has a place of origin that they will likely never set foot in until mid-high level.

  Scot

Elite Member

Joined: 10/10/03
Posts: 5100

12/23/13 4:25:06 AM#18

There is a reason why WoW and EvE have maintained their player base apart from the fact they are both rather good at what they do. They both launched years ago, today no MMO is going to be able to maintain traction, the market has changed. Content locusts are the baulk of the player base now and they play for one or two months and move on. You get a very rare exception like GW2, but don't expect another one of those to come along that quickly.

  Vutar

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/10/09
Posts: 749

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it. -George Santayana

12/23/13 4:34:48 AM#19
Originally posted by Mr.Kujo
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

Recently all MMOs we have seen has started big and dropped big time a couple of months.  Here are some examples including SWTOR and GW2.  I will use Google but there are plenty of other sources:

SWTOR, GW2, Rift, Warhammer Online, FFXIV

WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

WoW

Eve Online

So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

 

I hope we wont see. It used to be 50k people gradually increasing over time to 70k and then dropping to 40k etc. Now we have 1 million people dropping to 300k, I call that progress. I hope we won't get back to the dark ages, when mmorpg was labeled to geeks.

Give me example of "old" mmorpgs, that have larger player base than the ones you mentioned as "dropping". It is normal, the bigger number of players, the bigger the drop. Back in the days there was nothing to drop from. Of course we are not using exceptions as any reliable statistic source (WoW etc.)

 

You do realize you just proved why older MMO's were better right? By your own reasoning the older MMO's were not only able to maintain their initial player base but also increase it. Even after the inevitable crash. Going from 1 million to 300k is a horrible retention rate that has nothing to do with being a bigger number. Look at it in percentages. The newer games lose players at a HUGE percent compared to older games. If I were in charge of a newer MMO I would be asking why that is happening and looking back at old games to see what they did right in regard to player retention.

 

 

 

  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 583

 
OP  12/23/13 5:18:10 AM#20
Originally posted by Scot

You get a very rare exception like GW2, but don't expect another one of those to come along that quickly.

GW2 fell just as hard if not harder than SWTOR, I don't see how that is an exception, it is exactly what I am talking about, it is the norm.  SWTOR and GW2 is the embodiment of what I am talking about.

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