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Star Wars: The Old Republic

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General Discussion  » How long after Swtor's release was it known that its population was going to drop off?

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63 posts found
  User Deleted
9/28/13 1:18:15 AM#21

The bottom started to fall out a month before SWTOR's launch. As more people got to play the beta, the bad news was spreading fast.

The opposite sort of happened with FFXIV. It flew under the radar because of the botched 1.0 and EQNext was all the rage at E3. Then as more people got into the beta weekends, more pre-orders were happening and word of mouth got around that it had really turned around.

  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7674

9/28/13 1:25:58 AM#22
One month for those who didnt beta.
  TribeofOne

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/10/05
Posts: 979

9/28/13 1:38:16 AM#23

its nothing to claim DOOM  about.. it happens to ALL mmos.

trying to stir up discord and viral prophetic DOOM  is sad and people should find other things to do... like drown kittens or punch trees.

  BMBender

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/07
Posts: 559

9/28/13 1:46:22 AM#24
Originally posted by TribeofOne

its nothing to claim DOOM  about.. it happens to ALL mmos.

trying to stir up discord and viral prophetic DOOM  is sad and people should find other things to do... like drown kittens or punch trees.

Unless it's Colorado then the trees drowned and the kittens floated away.

 

 

ok that was prob in bad taste, sorry in advance.

  Shaigh

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/07/13
Posts: 356

9/28/13 1:57:56 AM#25

If swtor had released with fewer servers instead of doubling their servers just before real launch the perception of the population drop wouldn't have been noticed until much later.. The new servers had population problems almost from the start while it took 1-3 months until you could noticed the drop in population on the high pop servers.

 

 

  BMBender

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/07
Posts: 559

9/28/13 2:03:30 AM#26
Originally posted by Shaigh

If swtor had released with fewer servers instead of doubling their servers just before real launch the perception of the population drop wouldn't have been noticed until much later.. The new servers had population problems almost from the start while it took 1-3 months until you could noticed the drop in population on the high pop servers.

 

 

yea this quandary is almost universal in mmo launches now. too few servers queues get too long and people walk away.  pony up for the hardware and risk pop imbalance after launch retraction.  Less of an issue ,but still an issue with mmos that don't shard.

  Bluewhitehell

Novice Member

Joined: 8/31/13
Posts: 68

9/28/13 5:36:32 AM#27
Originally posted by GeezerGamer
I'm writing this as I wait in a queue to log into FF14.

 

Queue was gone around 1 week ago, so population certainly dropped.

Just that there were some new players came in recently after digital sale restart, so log in queue was back again.

We should wait until Nov, that's about time when everyone's free month expires and done with story.

 

  tommygunzII

Novice Member

Joined: 9/26/11
Posts: 322

9/28/13 6:12:36 AM#28
Originally posted by Bluewhitehell
Originally posted by GeezerGamer
I'm writing this as I wait in a queue to log into FF14.

 

Queue was gone around 1 week ago, so population certainly dropped.

Just that there were some new players came in recently after digital sale restart, so log in queue was back again.

We should wait until Nov, that's about time when everyone's free month expires and done with story.

 

I still get queued logging into my server at primetime.

  GeezerGamer

Elite Member

Joined: 4/03/12
Posts: 5247

 
OP  9/28/13 7:11:10 AM#29
Originally posted by Bluewhitehell
Originally posted by GeezerGamer
I'm writing this as I wait in a queue to log into FF14.

 

Queue was gone around 1 week ago, so population certainly dropped.

Just that there were some new players came in recently after digital sale restart, so log in queue was back again.

We should wait until Nov, that's about time when everyone's free month expires and done with story.

 

Queue is not gone just yet.

Billing cycle begins on 10/6 for those of us who started from Early Access.

It's the sad state of the genre. The next big title has as many threads discussing issues with it's business model than issues with the game itself.

  Kyleran

Bitter Vet™

Joined: 9/13/06
Posts: 19514

Fools find no pleasure in understanding, but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

9/28/13 7:22:40 AM#30
Well before it launched, because almost every title post WOW has followed this same pattern, and it would be surprising if FFXIV breaks it.

One reason you may not have seen it yet is because SE has done one of the worst jobs in recent times of making the game available and playable so may be delaying the inevitable falloff briefly.

Let's see where things stand at 3 and 6 months, those are traditional checkpoints to see if a game is growing or not.

Arrogant, Condescending, Dismissive, Elitist, "Meany", you speak as if these are bad things?
"People can do with their money what they want. But... that doesn't make it smart" - COORS
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon

  Zalmon

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/02/11
Posts: 338

9/28/13 7:32:47 AM#31
All P2P MMOS do fine for atleast 2 months..that is how much time it takes for population to nose dive.
  rawfox

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/03/09
Posts: 619

9/28/13 7:47:09 AM#32

It was only the combat system that drew me in for about 8 months.

Empty servers, merges and server techs kicked me out of my community every time, i couldnt find compatable company after that.

Then, when i wanted to give it another go some months later, i saw my 50 guardian was stripped, the account looked like it was never used before with a naked 50 char. Not hacked i guess, more a copy error/problem whatever.

The lag in PvP was another had time in the first weeks.

We told them, the maps are too small.

We told them about the content is too mutch redundant.

We told them about the worlds look too similar.

We wanted it less comic style but they hadnt the textures in place.

We told them, the Hero thing is not ready yet but they said $_$.

I uninstalled the game, still have it on Linux for wine development.

 

Playing Tera actually, cool combat system ...

 

  echolynfan

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/26/10
Posts: 728

I ain't got a gat but I gotta soldering gun

9/28/13 8:18:23 AM#33
Originally posted by tommygunzII
Originally posted by Bluewhitehell
Originally posted by GeezerGamer
I'm writing this as I wait in a queue to log into FF14.

 

Queue was gone around 1 week ago, so population certainly dropped.

Just that there were some new players came in recently after digital sale restart, so log in queue was back again.

We should wait until Nov, that's about time when everyone's free month expires and done with story.

 

I still get queued logging into my server at primetime.

I'm in a queue right now while reading this....

Currently playing SWTOR and it's MUCH better than it was at launch.

  TwoThreeFour

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/26/12
Posts: 2149

9/28/13 8:59:00 AM#34
Originally posted by Shadanwolf

It didn't take the companies CFO long to get as far away from that turkey as he could.

Game launched December 2011

CFO jumps ship February 2012.  Because he knew he was on the Titanic.

That CFO was really smart then. It is "ethically okay" to abuse a company known to be like EA :D.  He did what any sane person would do in his position.

  GeezerGamer

Elite Member

Joined: 4/03/12
Posts: 5247

 
OP  9/28/13 9:35:21 AM#35
Originally posted by Kyleran
Well before it launched, because almost every title post WOW has followed this same pattern, and it would be surprising if FFXIV breaks it.

One reason you may not have seen it yet is because SE has done one of the worst jobs in recent times of making the game available and playable so may be delaying the inevitable falloff briefly.

Let's see where things stand at 3 and 6 months, those are traditional checkpoints to see if a game is growing or not.

I don't see FF14 breaking the post WoW trend. I think it will follow in the same pattern. But the scale is wide. Some games post WoW did fairly well. (Rift) while others.........not so much (SWTOR). The question is where does FF14 fall into that scale? At this point. I think the majority of people who are going to play FF14 are. Sure there will be stragglers who join as time goes on. But there won't be any mass influx at this point. Unless SE come up with some unexpected success patch. But again, I don't see that.

I think the question now is, how much of a population will FF14 retain over time. Post WoW, the most successful game had been Rift. Rift is no longer P2P, but I also don't think it was so much that Rift failed as much as Trion failed. Trion needed to milk that cow fast.

So now the debate is over where, post WoW, does FF14 fit in the trend? I don't think it's going to drop like SWTOR, But I wonder....Will it retain its player base at least as well as, if not better than, Rift? (I think it will) I stayed Subbed to Rift for almost it's entire Vanilla period. But I didn't really enjoy the expansion (More that I didn't enjoy the change to my class/play style than the expansion itself was bad) IMO, I like FF14 better than Rift. Not by a huge margin, and not in every way, there was much about Rift that was better, but Rift was also missing something I couldn't put my finger on but FF14 has it. (Soul I guess)

I have subbed to FF14. So far everyone I have spoken to in game has as well. No one I have come across in any chats have been talking about leaving or any mass exodus. So I think the game will be around for some time. That is, of course, assuming that SE can maintain solid content additions on a regular basis.

It's the sad state of the genre. The next big title has as many threads discussing issues with it's business model than issues with the game itself.

  hikaru77

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/28/07
Posts: 1014

9/28/13 10:02:56 AM#36
Originally posted by GeezerGamer
Originally posted by Kyleran
Well before it launched, because almost every title post WOW has followed this same pattern, and it would be surprising if FFXIV breaks it.

One reason you may not have seen it yet is because SE has done one of the worst jobs in recent times of making the game available and playable so may be delaying the inevitable falloff briefly.

Let's see where things stand at 3 and 6 months, those are traditional checkpoints to see if a game is growing or not.

I don't see FF14 breaking the post WoW trend. I think it will follow in the same pattern. But the scale is wide. Some games post WoW did fairly well. (Rift) while others.........not so much (SWTOR). The question is where does FF14 fall into that scale? At this point. I think the majority of people who are going to play FF14 are. Sure there will be stragglers who join as time goes on. But there won't be any mass influx at this point. Unless SE come up with some unexpected success patch. But again, I don't see that.

I think the question now is, how much of a population will FF14 retain over time. Post WoW, the most successful game had been Rift. Rift is no longer P2P, but I also don't think it was so much that Rift failed as much as Trion failed. Trion needed to milk that cow fast.

So now the debate is over where, post WoW, does FF14 fit in the trend? I don't think it's going to drop like SWTOR, But I wonder....Will it retain its player base at least as well as, if not better than, Rift? (I think it will) I stayed Subbed to Rift for almost it's entire Vanilla period. But I didn't really enjoy the expansion (More that I didn't enjoy the change to my class/play style than the expansion itself was bad) IMO, I like FF14 better than Rift. Not by a huge margin, and not in every way, there was much about Rift that was better, but Rift was also missing something I couldn't put my finger on but FF14 has it. (Soul I guess)

I have subbed to FF14. So far everyone I have spoken to in game has as well. No one I have come across in any chats have been talking about leaving or any mass exodus. So I think the game will be around for some time. That is, of course, assuming that SE can maintain solid content additions on a regular basis.

Sry but after almost 2 years SWTOR is still the P2P MMO with more subs but WoW in the west, you are talking about Rift but the population drop after the 1st month was huge from any point of view, we didnt see nothing like that in swtor till the 4  or 5 month, Then it was bad till the megaserver tech and the merge then it never have population problems again. 

  Hyanmen

Elite Member

Joined: 10/11/06
Posts: 5178

9/28/13 10:08:14 AM#37
Originally posted by GeezerGamer

I don't see FF14 breaking the post WoW trend. I think it will follow in the same pattern. But the scale is wide. Some games post WoW did fairly well. (Rift) while others.........not so much (SWTOR). The question is where does FF14 fall into that scale? At this point. I think the majority of people who are going to play FF14 are. Sure there will be stragglers who join as time goes on. But there won't be any mass influx at this point. Unless SE come up with some unexpected success patch. But again, I don't see that.

I think the question now is, how much of a population will FF14 retain over time. Post WoW, the most successful game had been Rift. Rift is no longer P2P, but I also don't think it was so much that Rift failed as much as Trion failed. Trion needed to milk that cow fast.

So now the debate is over where, post WoW, does FF14 fit in the trend? I don't think it's going to drop like SWTOR, But I wonder....Will it retain its player base at least as well as, if not better than, Rift? (I think it will) I stayed Subbed to Rift for almost it's entire Vanilla period. But I didn't really enjoy the expansion (More that I didn't enjoy the change to my class/play style than the expansion itself was bad) IMO, I like FF14 better than Rift. Not by a huge margin, and not in every way, there was much about Rift that was better, but Rift was also missing something I couldn't put my finger on but FF14 has it. (Soul I guess)

I have subbed to FF14. So far everyone I have spoken to in game has as well. No one I have come across in any chats have been talking about leaving or any mass exodus. So I think the game will be around for some time. That is, of course, assuming that SE can maintain solid content additions on a regular basis.

I don't know about success patches, but few things come to mind.

The game will be released on the PS4 along with a graphical upgrade (DX11 support).

SE is also planning to release the game in China, essentially opening it to another market entirely. I doubt that SE will use the subscription model there, but the player numbers should go up by some.

The wild card is the Japanese. They traditionally don't hold the same likes and dislikes when it comes to gaming, so it's pretty much impossible to predict what they will do. I can see the largest growth potential in their home market.

Of course there are also the PS3 players (later PS4 players), to which SE simply has to keep marketing the game as a Final Fantasy game and not an MMORPG.

All of these markets are something Rift never had the possibility of tapping into. Then again, I'm not sure whether the interest for this game is as big in the West relative to Rift and SWTOR.

Obviously SE has already shown that they will commit to this game and as the company in question is not so dependent on outside funding I think there is a greater chance that they can keep providing us with meaty content updates at least a year into the game's lifespan.

"Housing is standard in most mmo's."
- yolteotl79

  User Deleted
9/28/13 1:41:15 PM#38
Originally posted by RebelScum99
Originally posted by GeezerGamer

I'll clarify:

Did SWTOR's population decline start during the free month?

While I do anticipate some decline in FF14, I don't think (IMO) comparisons to SWTOR in terms of the severe population drop immediately after the free period, are founded. There are so many people still playing every day after a month.

Was that the same case in SWTOR? There is no talk internally of players not planning to drop the game after 10/6. Not in my circles anyway.

 

To be honest, I'd actually welcome a small decline in the population as it is now.

 

There were queues on servers after the free month.  In fact, there wasn't a noticeable drop off in population for 2-3 months after it launched.  

But to answer your question, it was known immediately after release that the population would drop at some point.  It is also known that the same will happen to FF XIV.  We know this in the same way that we know water is wet.   It's kinda what happens in MMOs.

Pretty much what happened on my server. People didn't really start leaving until they completely messed up Ilum. Granted this was  a PvP server where open world PvP objectives were a big deal.  Not sure when the mass exodus of PvE players happened. Probably a month or two after that.

  amber-r

Hard Core Member

Joined: 6/21/12
Posts: 324

9/28/13 2:26:43 PM#39

There is a large drop after the first month when subs hit.

There is the major game crushing player drop at around the 3-6 month mark.  The speed with which the 2nd player loss occurs is based on how fast leveling is and how quick people can complete the content they care about.

Also do people really believe they will put out a DX11 patch?  I can't see that happening.

  BMBender

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/07
Posts: 559

9/28/13 2:38:10 PM#40
Originally posted by amber-r

There is a large drop after the first month when subs hit.

There is the major game crushing player drop at around the 3-6 month mark.  The speed with which the 2nd player loss occurs is based on how fast leveling is and how quick people can complete the content they care about.

Also do people really believe they will put out a DX11 patch?  I can't see that happening.

Like he said one of the major headaches they ran into is it wasn't one massive group that left all at once or a steady drain revolving around similar issues.   The various "leaks" were staggered in duration, size, and reasons(based on demographics)  Which made it a moving target once it was decided to actually address something then implement a band aid many of the effected were already gone and a completely different/unrelated leak was starting somewhere else.  I don't see FF hitting that type of problem as they weren't stupid enough to cram so many demographics in one game.

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