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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » sub-only MMO further declines (not surprising)

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138 posts found
  udon

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/23/07
Posts: 1615

8/22/13 4:47:42 PM#121
 
  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 20125

 
OP  8/22/13 6:44:38 PM#122
Originally posted by SnarlingWolf
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by jerlot65
 

So the biggest game (by miles)  is bleeding subs mostly due to the fact that its older than dirt and played to death, so happens to be a sub based game?  Doesn't really prove just yet if subscription model is dead.  Just proves people can look at the numbers and still come up wit the wrong (or at least unfounded) conclusions.

Surely it does. It shows the market have no new-sub only game to replace this old game, at least not yet.

 

Here's why it shows nothing as per my last post.

 

The study you linked two doesn't say if F2P MMOs are increasing, decreasing, or staying the same. So for all we know is the sub data could be an indicator of the MMO market as a whole declining, not just sub based MMOs. That is the problem with the data you are trying to use.

 Sure .. whole MMO market can be declining. If the MMO market is dead, sub-only MMO is also dead, wouldn't you agree?

And you did not read this?

""Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

  Bladestrom

Elite Member

Joined: 4/04/11
Posts: 3512

8/22/13 6:57:23 PM#123
The sub market is totally skewed by wow where a jaded player based tied in with ancient avatars, years of achievments etc. take wow out of the picture and the sub market is on its deathbed (until they sub price comes down to a competitive price)

rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW (1000 hrs on main mage)> oblivion > LOTR (480 Hunter) > Rift (230 hours mage) > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(900 elementalist), Wildstar

Now playing GW2, AOW 3

  Vermillion_Raventhal

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/01/04
Posts: 1036

8/22/13 7:05:37 PM#124
Originally posted by Bladestrom
The sub market is totally skewed by wow where a jaded player based tied in with ancient avatars, years of achievments etc. take wow out of the picture and the sub market is on its deathbed (until they sub price comes down to a competitive price)

 

The sub market is only declining because the games created now do not support paying subs.    Most sub games are older games with hooks.  Causal single player MMO's that can be beaten faster than Skyrim are not going to get people sub long term.

  Sagasaint

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/25/11
Posts: 474

I don't always play MMOs, but when I do, I play sandboxes

8/23/13 7:15:37 PM#125
Originally posted by nariusseldon

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

"Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

9% loss on a month basis ... it does not look good.

"Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

Guess the whales are paying more.

But that is not the point. The point is that sub-only MMOs are probably going to be dead soon.

 

red parts really tell the whole story that nariusseldon is trying to cover under a sensacionalistic thread title

sub based MMOs arent losing players. WoW is losing players

 

its evidenced in the way that 600k people were lost in WoW, and yet not even one of them apparently moved to F2Pgames.

 

many WoW players are NOT MMO players.

WoW is a social phenomenon. its a fad, it has always been since probably its 3rd month of existance. WoW is the facebook or the twitter of games. People play WoW not because they are interested in MMOs, hell, many of them probably arent even interested in WoW per se. But because they are interested in the social benefits of playing WoW with friends, co-workers, Schoolmates, roommates, bf/gf, son/daughter, etc etc etc.

 

all this article is saying is that apparently for a bunch of people, the boredom of playing WoW actually outweighed the social benefits they gained from playing it, and quit, not the game, but the GENRE ENTIRELY.

 

the fact that WoW is sub-based is annecdotical. That kind of people would have played it anyway. The long figth between F2P and P2P is alien to them, they wouldnt even care if trillions of better games were being given for free, or even that you got paid for playing  them. F2P being an option, for better or worse, clearly wasnt the reason why they quitted wow. many of them probably dont even know or care that F2P actually exists.

all they know and care is that jimmy, timmy and johnnie are playing "that thing" and its "cool" so playing it "will make me cool too so I can talk with themk"...and after a while they drop off and go back to whetever they were doing, which certainly wasnt prying the market for the next F2P asian sensation that will last 6 months to 1 year before shutting down. probably timmy started getting interested in chicks and will draw the rest with him....

 

another thread full of half lies and non-truths from nariusseldon to prove (always without proving anything at all) that F2P > P2P

not surprising

  kitarad

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/17/10
Posts: 1323

8/23/13 7:28:24 PM#126

Whales are the ones supporting F2P when they get wise to being fleeced which over a course of time will happen won't the main revenue of these F2P games dry up ? How long can this go on before the bubble bursts ?

 

Also I am wary of putting my faith in whales who seem to be in my book anyway absolute morons who spend money like that, I mean clearly if these are the people you are depending on for the future of the genre. I fear for us all.

  elocke

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/15/04
Posts: 4113

8/23/13 7:33:42 PM#127
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by stevebombsquad

 

That is why the next three major AAA MMOs are all sub based: ESO, FF14, and WS..... Keep dreaming pal. Quality gaming is still going to require a sub.

I am not worried. They will go F2P sooner or later.

Plus, EQN is not going to be sub-only.

 

I want you to call Square-Enix and ask them if they will ever even consider F2P.  I will laugh when I see the look on your face when they tell you to shove off.  Just google Yoshi P's comments on FFXIV going F2P. 

Anyway, are you opposed to sub games or something?

http://www.twitch.tv/elockethemmoaddict

https://twitter.com/MMOAddicted

  rutaq

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/08/06
Posts: 416

8/23/13 7:34:54 PM#128

Hmm.  with all the gloom and doom about the death of MMO's subscriptions If find it strange that hundreds of thousands of players are preordering Final Fantasy XIV... a  subscription based MMO.....

 

Not to mention WildStar and TESO recent subscription announcements...

 

I guess things aren't as dead as you imagined   :P 

  Bladestrom

Elite Member

Joined: 4/04/11
Posts: 3512

8/23/13 7:53:13 PM#129
Familiar pattern isn't it, big corporat investment, fear of change, try to maximise profit over innovation- 2013 and still pumping a payment model that was used 10 years ago. can you imagine steam or apple pushing for sub games?

rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW (1000 hrs on main mage)> oblivion > LOTR (480 Hunter) > Rift (230 hours mage) > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(900 elementalist), Wildstar

Now playing GW2, AOW 3

  Sagasaint

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/25/11
Posts: 474

I don't always play MMOs, but when I do, I play sandboxes

8/23/13 7:54:59 PM#130
Originally posted by kitarad
 How long can this go on before the bubble bursts ?

in a certain way, the bubble bursted, but was inmediatly replaced with another bubble

or more accurately, the second bubble bursted the first, and took its place

 

historically, the first F2P MMOs worked under a fairly simple model

make a game for what amounted to be spare change. shitty engine, sloppy coding, tons of bugs, awful graphics, lame animations.

basically, make it CHEAP AS F..... then, proceed to tackle a predatory cash shop on it, while doing the bare MINIMUM to keep it running, no support whatsoever.

and they worked because of 2 reasons

1) because the competition was mostly P2P, so "HEY LOOK; FREE!!!" was a novelty bound to work

2) because the market was expanding faster than people realized the inherent evilness of the model.

imagine a snakes oil salesman that can only travel to the same 5 towns. after a while, everybody in that towns will know him and throw rocks at him on sight.

now imagine that new roads are being made constantly, and the same snake oil salesman can travel to more, and more, and more new towns full of people that know nothing of his broken morals...he doesnt need to rely on scamming people twice to make a profit....there are literally unlimited amounts of towns full of naive people waiting to be scammed. 

 

this generated a long list of infamous publishers that basically got filthy rich operating in such a system. Aeria, GPotato, Webzen, Nexon, and many many more. This were publishers which could have portfolios as big as 20 games running at once, and not even all of them combined were worth a flying damn. they would keep throwing them into the market, waiting for one to make some impact and capture some whales, and that would be more than enough to make up for the other that were closing in the blink of an eye.

 

but....

 

before that point, P2P games that failed were simply shutting down

and then, someone, somewhere, had a genius idea..."hey, what if I switch my quality P2P game to F2P as a hail mary?"

 

and of course, from then on, the older F2P games started having the snowballs chance in hell of competing with that...

thats why some of the older, most renowned F2P publishers started losing market share, money, and actually a few of themhad to merge to survive, or plainly shut down entirely. others, the most finantially strong, started competing with the new rules of the market, and started developing quality games for a change.

 

of course, there are still certain regions of the planet, like india or china, where P2P markets cannot simply work due to a disproportionate difference of average renta per capita compared to the west, so F2P is still the only option available. some publishers still survive by clinging on to that markets by their fingernails, but are largely nonfactor in west anymore.

 

now, where is that second bubble I talked about at the start of this wall of text?

it lies in the fact that more and more quality games are turning F2P. actually some of them even start as F2P. and the market isnt growing exponentially anymore, actually its decreasing.

 

 the old model cant apply here, because that games actully cost A LOT to be made. people dont want crap anymore, and wont stand crap either. they have been fed to expect better, they want good games, with decent support, and they want them free.

 

and soon, a bunch of devs are gonna see how they spend a AAA budget just to give their games for free, and then that games wont catch barely any attention from the whales. where in a P2P market they would have gotten some money out of the boxes and subs for a while,in a F2P game, chances are they will lose BOTH the money from developing an expensive game, and the ongoing costs associated from running the game for the 80% that doesnt pay a dime, failing to secure revenue from the 19% that do pay, and the 1% that pay LARGE.

and that devs are gonna fail

hardcore

and go bankrupt. REALLY bankrupt

 

the F2P model is inherently self-cannibalizing and non-sustainable long term. The more games are released into the market as F2P, the faster its reaching critical mass. people dont feel any commitment towars any game because they havent paid a dime for it. they are free to bounce from one to another at the drop of a hat. and they do

 

devs racing each others releasing better and better games and giving them more and more free, to meet the demands of the public, are acttually killing each other's long term success in the search for the quick buck, which is what the F2P model has always been about.

  free2play

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/13/05
Posts: 1816

8/23/13 9:03:20 PM#131

Cash shop MMO's don't release their earnings.

 

The data is incomplete.

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 20125

 
OP  8/24/13 2:21:03 AM#132
Originally posted by kitarad

Whales are the ones supporting F2P when they get wise to being fleeced which over a course of time will happen won't the main revenue of these F2P games dry up ? How long can this go on before the bubble bursts ?

 

Also I am wary of putting my faith in whales who seem to be in my book anyway absolute morons who spend money like that, I mean clearly if these are the people you are depending on for the future of the genre. I fear for us all.

Don't know. But certainly i can enjoy it while it lasts.

No one says you have to depend on it forever. No game is fun forever anyway, and entertainment industry moves fast. I don't care what happen in 2 years in MMOs. I may not even be playing MMOs in 2 years.

 

  Kevyne-Shandris

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/10/08
Posts: 1980

You can't † BURY † ¤¤ Holy Paladins ¤¤ As we will always __.- ASCEND -.__

8/24/13 3:12:02 AM#133
Originally posted by Bladestrom
Familiar pattern isn't it, big corporat investment, fear of change, try to maximise profit over innovation- 2013 and still pumping a payment model that was used 10 years ago. can you imagine steam or apple pushing for sub games?

 

Steam gets players to pay for the games in other ways.

 

Apple, via it's hardware.

 

There's no free lunch.

  daltanious

Elite Member

Joined: 4/19/08
Posts: 1846

8/24/13 9:03:47 AM#134
Originally posted by Markusrind

Mixed news for me.

I love F2P games because I get to play games for free. If others are happy to spend their money for me to play for free then I am fine with it. I do not pay for fluff and am quite happy to play as long as I am having fun.

...

I guess you would also love to live in some apartment for free, eat every day for free, .... Wow. Great. Just wondering where do you think money to support you (and zillion of others like you) should come?

  greenreen

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/19/12
Posts: 1454

8/24/13 9:31:33 AM#135
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by kitarad

Whales are the ones supporting F2P when they get wise to being fleeced which over a course of time will happen won't the main revenue of these F2P games dry up ? How long can this go on before the bubble bursts ?

 

Also I am wary of putting my faith in whales who seem to be in my book anyway absolute morons who spend money like that, I mean clearly if these are the people you are depending on for the future of the genre. I fear for us all.

Don't know. But certainly i can enjoy it while it lasts.

No one says you have to depend on it forever. No game is fun forever anyway, and entertainment industry moves fast. I don't care what happen in 2 years in MMOs. I may not even be playing MMOs in 2 years.

 

At 13976 posts, average 2 minutes each.

13976*2=27934 minutes

27934/60 minutes in an hour =
465.56 hours just posting about it

How much time is spent researching it because you are the one looking for articles to quote?

How much time is spent reading rebuttals if post count is only gauging responses?

Oh, you care, quite a bit and lately I'm beginning to question your angle. Are you getting paid for posting?
It's not hard to notice you when you are in every thread on the forum with the same words.

You posted 58 times on 8/23 - is that really - not caring? You know what they say, "Actions speak louder than words".
It's hard to believe that you will stop playing MMOs with so much work put into it - you made me giggle on that one.
Other people make guides in games and youtube vids, you are king of posting about free games and your eternal adoration for them.


That's time that you put into those games that you think are so inconsequential to you. They mean a lot because they are turning you obsessive in the thought that they might go, constantly looking for ways to affirm that they aren't going anywhere and constantly bringing up the subject.
What is distasteful is that you snicker at the contributions to those who would prefer to pay for a game and invest their time there instead of posting about payment models forever and consider them the suckers for paying for a game and committing to it but you have your commitment just as strongly for your interest - if not more. Even in my most excited moments about a game, I've never posted 58 times in a day about it.

I don't want to be a pud but geez, every time I open this forum it's you repeating the same thing everywhere so I'm calling bull on you "not caring"  : \

  Cecropia

Gumshoe

Joined: 3/06/09
Posts: 3284

Poacher killer.

8/24/13 9:49:37 AM#136
Originally posted by greenreen
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by kitarad

Whales are the ones supporting F2P when they get wise to being fleeced which over a course of time will happen won't the main revenue of these F2P games dry up ? How long can this go on before the bubble bursts ?

 

Also I am wary of putting my faith in whales who seem to be in my book anyway absolute morons who spend money like that, I mean clearly if these are the people you are depending on for the future of the genre. I fear for us all.

Don't know. But certainly i can enjoy it while it lasts.

No one says you have to depend on it forever. No game is fun forever anyway, and entertainment industry moves fast. I don't care what happen in 2 years in MMOs. I may not even be playing MMOs in 2 years.

 

At 13976 posts, average 2 minutes each.

13976*2=27934 minutes

27934/60 minutes in an hour =
465.56 hours just posting about it

How much time is spent researching it because you are the one looking for articles to quote?

How much time is spent reading rebuttals if post count is only gauging responses?

Oh, you care, quite a bit and lately I'm beginning to question your angle. Are you getting paid for posting?
It's not hard to notice you when you are in every thread on the forum with the same words.

You posted 58 times on 8/23 - is that really - not caring? You know what they say, "Actions speak louder than words".
It's hard to believe that you will stop playing MMOs with so much work put into it - you made me giggle on that one.
Other people make guides in games and youtube vids, you are king of posting about free games and your eternal adoration for them.


That's time that you put into those games that you think are so inconsequential to you. They mean a lot because they are turning you obsessive in the thought that they might go, constantly looking for ways to affirm that they aren't going anywhere and constantly bringing up the subject.
What is distasteful is that you snicker at the contributions to those who would prefer to pay for a game and invest their time there instead of posting about payment models forever and consider them the suckers for paying for a game and committing to it but you have your commitment just as strongly for your interest - if not more. Even in my most excited moments about a game, I've never posted 58 times in a day about it.

I don't want to be a pud but geez, every time I open this forum it's you repeating the same thing everywhere so I'm calling bull on you "not caring"  : \

Great post and dead on. This guy cares and he cares much more than he's willing to admit on mmorpg.com or to himself.

Frankly, I do not understand why his behaviour gets a green light on these forums; everyone seems to see through this nonsense except for the mods. How many times can you repeat the same damn thing over and over again disrupting thread after thread and not get the boot? I've known members who were perma banned for much less. Something doesn't add up here, that's for sure.

"Chuck's a good fighter but he's a UFC fighter... this is Pride." - Quinton Rampage Jackson
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 20125

 
OP  8/24/13 10:06:47 AM#137
Originally posted by greenreen
 

At 13976 posts, average 2 minutes each.

13976*2=27934 minutes

27934/60 minutes in an hour =
465.56 hours just posting about it



Oh, you care, quite a bit and lately I'm beginning to question your angle.

First, it is more like 30 sec than 2 min since i often got the warning of "you can only post every 30 sec". So it is more than 115 hours than 450. Secondly, i joined in 2007 .. so it has been 6 years. 20 hours a year on a forum is nothing. That is less than 6 min a day.

But that is not the point.

Of course i care .. i care about having fun in the forum. Otherwise, why would i spend even ONE minute? I just don't care about MMOs as much as you think. They are just games to me.

 

  Sagasaint

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/25/11
Posts: 474

I don't always play MMOs, but when I do, I play sandboxes

8/24/13 10:19:51 AM#138
Originally posted by greenreen
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by kitarad

Whales are the ones supporting F2P when they get wise to being fleeced which over a course of time will happen won't the main revenue of these F2P games dry up ? How long can this go on before the bubble bursts ?

 

Also I am wary of putting my faith in whales who seem to be in my book anyway absolute morons who spend money like that, I mean clearly if these are the people you are depending on for the future of the genre. I fear for us all.

Don't know. But certainly i can enjoy it while it lasts.

No one says you have to depend on it forever. No game is fun forever anyway, and entertainment industry moves fast. I don't care what happen in 2 years in MMOs. I may not even be playing MMOs in 2 years.

 

At 13976 posts, average 2 minutes each.

13976*2=27934 minutes

27934/60 minutes in an hour =
465.56 hours just posting about it

How much time is spent researching it because you are the one looking for articles to quote?

How much time is spent reading rebuttals if post count is only gauging responses?

Oh, you care, quite a bit and lately I'm beginning to question your angle. Are you getting paid for posting?
It's not hard to notice you when you are in every thread on the forum with the same words.

You posted 58 times on 8/23 - is that really - not caring? You know what they say, "Actions speak louder than words".
It's hard to believe that you will stop playing MMOs with so much work put into it - you made me giggle on that one.
Other people make guides in games and youtube vids, you are king of posting about free games and your eternal adoration for them.


That's time that you put into those games that you think are so inconsequential to you. They mean a lot because they are turning you obsessive in the thought that they might go, constantly looking for ways to affirm that they aren't going anywhere and constantly bringing up the subject.
What is distasteful is that you snicker at the contributions to those who would prefer to pay for a game and invest their time there instead of posting about payment models forever and consider them the suckers for paying for a game and committing to it but you have your commitment just as strongly for your interest - if not more. Even in my most excited moments about a game, I've never posted 58 times in a day about it.

I don't want to be a pud but geez, every time I open this forum it's you repeating the same thing everywhere so I'm calling bull on you "not caring"  : \

if you think about it, he has admitted many times to quitting f2p games faster than he changes his socks. he seems to be a lot more interested in talking about the business model than in playing the games on it.

he comes off as the average f2p player that bounces endlessly from f2p game to f2p game,always optimistic that this time, THIS TIME, he will find one that piques his interest enough time to finish his sandwich...oh no, not this one either...but the next, OH THE NEXT, THAT WILL BE THE ONE IM SURE....

I think your theory that he's being paid to make lip service for the model holds a few more gallons of water than I previously thought...

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