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Guild Wars 2

Guild Wars 2 

General Discussion  » NCsoft quarterly report is out... not looking good for gw2...

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172 posts found
  Silentstorm

Elite Member

Joined: 9/29/06
Posts: 1116

8/15/13 3:16:09 AM#141

OMG drama mommas cut it out. Every and I repeat EVERY game. Loses profits towards the end of it's vanilla cycle. The games been out a year it's not surprising anyone now. So it won't set any sales records and will decline. That is the nature of the business.

Everyone who wanted to buy it has anyone on the edge will and fuel current and future sales. The expansion will rekindle flames and the game will again peak. Then start to slowly taper off level then fall like it did now. Stop acting like this stuff doesn't happen in every game. For the past 20 years in MMO history.

  Aeander

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/15/11
Posts: 155

8/15/13 3:26:09 AM#142
Originally posted by Silentstorm

OMG drama mommas cut it out. Every and I repeat EVERY game. Loses profits towards the end of it's vanilla cycle. The games been out a year it's not surprising anyone now. So it won't set any sales records and will decline. That is the nature of the business.

Everyone who wanted to buy it has anyone on the edge will and fuel current and future sales. The expansion will rekindle flames and the game will again peak. Then start to slowly taper off level then fall like it did now. Stop acting like this stuff doesn't happen in every game. For the past 20 years in MMO history.

Oh, but this time it must be different because "we" the MMORPG.com community don't like this particular game, right?

  User Deleted
8/15/13 3:35:09 AM#143

What any intelligent GW2 player should be asking themselves (if they care), is if  this will imply a change in living story content, and/or the release of an expansion.

 

 

  Silentstorm

Elite Member

Joined: 9/29/06
Posts: 1116

8/15/13 3:35:38 AM#144

What you dislike or like doesn't matter here. And don't speak for the community, you don't have that right. It's plain economics and it's not rocket science. Or something for the OP to hype up like it unheard of to be happening. Only one game in the history of MMO's actually gained at the end of it's vanilla cycle.

And that was wow's Transition into Burning Crusade. Same thing happens to cars, clothes , used console games. When the next big thing is announced it's current place holder or product becomes old news.

  Aeander

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/15/11
Posts: 155

8/15/13 3:41:55 AM#145
Originally posted by Silentstorm

What you dislike or like doesn't matter here. And don't speak for the community, you don't have that right. It's plain economics and it's not rocket science. Or something for the OP to hype up like it unheard of to be happening. Only one game in the history of MMO's actually gained at the end of it's vanilla cycle.

And that was wow's Transition into Burning Crusade. Same thing happens to cars, clothes , used console games. When the next big thing is announced it's current place holder or product becomes old news.

Chill. You misinterpreted my post entirely - and that would have been an overreaction even if I had legitimately intended the comment that way. I LIKE the game and want to see it succeed. I was simply making reference to the closed-minded, antagonistic state of this forum's majority, which seems to involve seeing something they dislike, failing to use the two brain cells it takes to see what the actual problems of said thing are, and then twisting data (as done by the OP) to show how said product they dislike must be crashing and burning because its sales have been dwindling (just like every other MMO has at the end of its vanilla year, with the exception of WoW). 

  Gaia_Hunter

Elite Member

Joined: 5/04/12
Posts: 2560

8/15/13 3:46:30 AM#146
Originally posted by bcbully
So in terms of revenue it's doing about the same as AION. 

Or double of what blade and soul does.

Of course AION is very big in Asia where GW2 has no presence yet.

Currently playing: GW2
Cooperative (semi cooperative)board games you should check: Pandemic, Sentinels of the Multiverse, Eldritch Horror, Descent 2.0,Level 7 Omega Protocol, Last Night on Earth

  Gaia_Hunter

Elite Member

Joined: 5/04/12
Posts: 2560

8/15/13 3:49:09 AM#147
Originally posted by Meowhead
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

I don't think its 100% accurate but it is the only sources we have.  And yes WoW is declining too, they have announced they lost millions of subs.  I use Xfire for trends month over month.  But Raptr is a better source as it has a significantly large sample, problem is they don't break out data by month like Xfire.

I won't bother to argue 'decline in revenue'.  That's in black and white for all to see.

Decline in population since launch?  Willing to believe that too, though it's hard to get hard numbers on that.

All I'm saying is that 'decline' <> 'not looking good for gw2'.

They're still at a comfortable stage.  The earnings call called it 'stable'.  That sort of decrease on the B2P model is pretty much within expectations.

Decline in profit?   Yes. 

'Not looking good' is projecting.

Being #2 or #3, while simultaneously being the =second most anticipated= MMORPG in China (Another NCSoft game being the #1 anticipated), and making that much money per year?  (Hint:  It's a lot of money, even now).

Still in a pretty comfortable position.

(Also, all the explanations of how RIFT got higher Raptr numbers with lots of incentives... like a free mount (Free mount just for signing up for raptr!  Easy!), shows just how horribly skewed these games can get really easily.  That makes the RIFT numbers completely unreliable.  'Raptr isn't 100%' is an understatement, to say the least)

And you can't discount the free game allure - even I let my PC run during overnight to get the RIFT game.

Currently playing: GW2
Cooperative (semi cooperative)board games you should check: Pandemic, Sentinels of the Multiverse, Eldritch Horror, Descent 2.0,Level 7 Omega Protocol, Last Night on Earth

  Gaia_Hunter

Elite Member

Joined: 5/04/12
Posts: 2560

8/15/13 3:51:52 AM#148
Originally posted by SoMuchMass
Originally posted by SpottyGekko

The true test for GW2 will be the next 6-12 months.

Since it launched, GW2 has had no significant competition in the form of new AAA MMORPG launches, so it pretty much has had the playing field to itself.

 

There's been no significant game arrival that has pulled 100's of thousands of players away for 2 or 3 months at a time. But that is about to change...

FFXIV:ARR, Wildstar, ESO, Archeage and EQ:Landmark will most likely all be launching in the next 6-12 months, which will inevitably pull significant player numbers away from GW2. This will impact CS sales the most, and that appears to be GW2's major source of revenue currently.

Agreed 100%.  And I am curious to see how NCSoft treats GW2 after the launch of WildStar.  Even without competition it did drop in sales by a good amount.  Now look at games that you mentioned and the landscape gets a whole lot more competitive.  And to add to that, most of those games will be F2P or B2P.

And you guys really think that the possibly players leaving will be the ones that spend money in the cash shop?

Do you guys really think that every player drops money in the cash shop?

Currently playing: GW2
Cooperative (semi cooperative)board games you should check: Pandemic, Sentinels of the Multiverse, Eldritch Horror, Descent 2.0,Level 7 Omega Protocol, Last Night on Earth

  Wyrdfell

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/27/10
Posts: 205

In the abyss you make your own light.

8/15/13 3:52:46 AM#149

[quote]Originally posted by SoMuchMass
 But Raptr is a better source as it has a significantly large sample, problem is they don't break out data by month like Xfire.[/b][/quote]


Raptr is all about lies... You know why Rift played that much? Because Raptr got a deal with Trion. If you play Rift like 14 hours you'll get a free copy of Rift and expansion pack. That was the deal. And including me most of these players just opened the dame and stay afk for that 14 hours.

Playing : Guild Wars 2 - Destiny - Perpetuum

Waiting for : The Division - H1Z1 - Elite Dangerous - Warhammer 40K

Legends : Warhammer Online - Knight Online - Guild Wars

  Gaia_Hunter

Elite Member

Joined: 5/04/12
Posts: 2560

8/15/13 3:58:51 AM#150
Originally posted by Doomedfox
Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

GW2 has made over $240M  so far.

That is more than GW1 made in 7 year or what EVE made in the first 8 years.

GW2 a game without subs and a very limited cash shop is bringing the equivalent to 666K $15 subs every month.

GW2 being a non sub game isn't expecting to do $300M a quarter.

GW2 cash shop is more than enough to keep the game profitable and with new content every 2 weeks.

That is what i was thinking but since this side labels every game that doesnt have a couple million subs (at least) a failure i wonder if we have to count GW2 as a failure as well.

After all if a game with 500k subs is a failure than a game making the same amount of money should be one as well right?

Because we, gamers, measure success of game on the number of players.

A sub game with 500K players that invested resources in hopes of getting 2 million subs is a financial failure and only has 500K players.

A game that brings the equivalent of 600K subs but has much more players than that (figures for other games say that only 10-20% of the population ever buys something in the cash shop with real money) and was designed to generate enough money to pay the wages while more content is developed, is a different beast.

Currently playing: GW2
Cooperative (semi cooperative)board games you should check: Pandemic, Sentinels of the Multiverse, Eldritch Horror, Descent 2.0,Level 7 Omega Protocol, Last Night on Earth

  InFlamestwo

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/20/11
Posts: 677

8/15/13 4:02:46 AM#151
Originally posted by Xiaoki

Guild Wars 2 went from $32.5 million the previous quarter down to $25.8 million this quarter.


Why are the GW2 fans being so hardcore defensive?


It didnt make as much money, its a fact.

A loss like that isn't really surprising.  Sales are always the strongest the first 3 months, then the other 3 months it starts to slowly decrease. I'd guess not as many have bought the game in this period. People are still buying gems though, loads of them.

  Gaia_Hunter

Elite Member

Joined: 5/04/12
Posts: 2560

8/15/13 4:05:51 AM#152
Originally posted by SoMuchMass
Originally posted by Meowhead
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

What facts have you provided exactly?  I just look at ANet sales on page 10 and I see a 20% drop from quarter over quarter, and 80% drop since launch.  I look at the number of people on GW2 sPvP servers and see 300 people across all servers during primetime.  I look at traffic data for GW2 Guru, Guildwars2.com and /r/guildwars2 and see a 70% to 80% drop since launch.  I look at Xfire data and see a 80% drop in players since launch.

I get it, you are a fan of the game.  I had arguments with SWTOR fans similiar to this, so I can see where you are coming from.  And I don't blame you.

Xfire?  80% drop from launch when they were =the most played MMORPG in the western markets= (Beating out WoW).  80% drop that still makes them the SECOND most played MMORPG?  (After WoW), a game that has seen a similarly massive drop since the release of MoP?

You shouldn't bring XFire into it, '#2 MMORPG in the Western game market' is pretty poor evidence for 'dying game'.  They in fact, are beating out EVE by a fairly hefty margin of players and profit both, so far as any evidence you'll find goes.  Is EVE a failing game?

In fact, other than WoW, what MMORPG is beating out GW2 in western markets for money making?  Or where you can prove it has more (active) players with facts?

Go ahead.  I'll sit here and wait for you.

XFire shows trends in data month over month.  You can take a look at data here in terms of the drop.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AimCXydAYDLYdHUwWGhfWXg2S3pVWFY5QjcxOWlLRUE#gid=0

GW2 = 92,000 players in Sept '12

GW2 = 7,000 players in July '13

If you look at Raptr which has 20 times the sample of Xfire.  GW2 is the third most popular MMO in the West, after WoW and Rift.  I am guessing after this week it will be 4th after FFXIV:AAR.

http://raptr.com/dashboard/games

Wasn't a long wait, was it?  And who said anything about "dying"?  Declining? Sure.

GW2 didn't have 92 000 player in Sept 12 - it had 92 000 hours and 15K players.

And look at WoW in Jan'12 - 100K hours and now has 15K hours.

Did WoW lost 85% of its population?

XFire that awesome bit of software that adds a FPS counter and a clock to your game and that you can't disable it in GW2 because it crashes the game.

Oh Raptr, that awesome software that says Rift is more played than WoW.

Could it be because they had a 2 month long offer that if you played Rift for 14 hours you would get Rift+Storm legion with 1 month sub for free?

And then a few more hours and items in game and a mount?

The user base of these tools is so small that a offer like that can make Rift a bigger MMO than WoW.

And where is Neverwinter? I read in these same forums that GW2 was such a failure that even Neverwinter and Defience were more played.

Of course those 2 games are way below GW2 now after their release month.

Currently playing: GW2
Cooperative (semi cooperative)board games you should check: Pandemic, Sentinels of the Multiverse, Eldritch Horror, Descent 2.0,Level 7 Omega Protocol, Last Night on Earth

  Sukiyaki

Elite Member

Joined: 8/14/09
Posts: 1288

8/15/13 4:13:21 AM#153

If this where a certain other game the certain well known fanboys of said other game now crying "horrible news" and "no one expected that! disregard anyone who did" over here, would cry its a perfectly healthy population cycle and point us at the greatness of prospectively deferred revenues from previous years boxsales hiding the actual current revenues. No wait the do this all the time and just did it a week ago. Dishonest hypocrites as usual.

And suddenly xfire is all accurate again, when it comes to misleadingly implied and even falsified decline of other games when just  over the past months same people trashed it for showing their favourite game in almost equal decline and horribly inaccurate when it showed GW2 is even closing up to their certain favourite game just weeks ago?

  Gaia_Hunter

Elite Member

Joined: 5/04/12
Posts: 2560

8/15/13 4:14:47 AM#154

Originally posted by Xiaoki

Guild Wars 2 went from $32.5 million the previous quarter down to $25.8 million this quarter.


Why are the GW2 fans being so hardcore defensive?


It didnt make as much money, its a fact.

Sure, and no one is saying that it didn't make as much money.

But numbers need context or otherwise are meaningless.

That is why we say 2 million players. Or 5 hours.

What we are refuting is the conclusions of some people.

Anet doesn't need this quarterly money to make Xpacs - they are financed by NCSoft that pay their salaries, just like they were during the years of GW2 development. Sure, Anet guys aren't buying a yacht, but buying yacht isn't the only measure for a successful business.

The gem shop sales finance their live world team and make some profit on the side.

Actually, it seems to be making so much money Anet and NCSoft aren't in a hurry to sell an expansion.

Currently playing: GW2
Cooperative (semi cooperative)board games you should check: Pandemic, Sentinels of the Multiverse, Eldritch Horror, Descent 2.0,Level 7 Omega Protocol, Last Night on Earth

  Gaia_Hunter

Elite Member

Joined: 5/04/12
Posts: 2560

8/15/13 4:16:16 AM#155
Originally posted by Sukiyaki

If this where a certain other game the certain well known fanboys of said other game now crying "doom" and "no one expected that! disregard anyone who did" over here, would cry its a perfectly healthy population cycle and point us at the greatness of prospectively deffered revenues from previous years boxsales hiding the actual current revenues. No wait the do this all the time and just did it a week ago. Dishonest hypocrites as usual.

And suddenly xfire is all accurate again when it comes to misleadingly implied and falsified decline of other games when just months ago sample people trashed it for showing their favourite game in equal decline and horribly inaccurate when it showed GW2 is even closing up to their certain favourite game just weeks ago?

And the difference is that in that other game revenue is directly related with players playing.

Not so linear in GW2.

Currently playing: GW2
Cooperative (semi cooperative)board games you should check: Pandemic, Sentinels of the Multiverse, Eldritch Horror, Descent 2.0,Level 7 Omega Protocol, Last Night on Earth

  Sukiyaki

Elite Member

Joined: 8/14/09
Posts: 1288

8/15/13 4:21:38 AM#156
Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
Originally posted by Sukiyaki

If this where a certain other game the certain well known fanboys of said other game now crying "doom" and "no one expected that! disregard anyone who did" over here, would cry its a perfectly healthy population cycle and point us at the greatness of prospectively deffered revenues from previous years boxsales hiding the actual current revenues. No wait the do this all the time and just did it a week ago. Dishonest hypocrites as usual.

And suddenly xfire is all accurate again when it comes to misleadingly implied and falsified decline of other games when just months ago sample people trashed it for showing their favourite game in equal decline and horribly inaccurate when it showed GW2 is even closing up to their certain favourite game just weeks ago?

And the difference is that in that other game revenue is directly related with players playing.

Not so linear in GW2.

Well thats exactly the joke. They are blaming another game for facing similar drops, that have even less of an direct impact on the gamepopulation (as usually implied) compared to a subscription based game and deny any rational argument about them even when its the same arguments they are using at the same time on another subforum, another forum or with another account in defense of another game facing a financial decline either.

It goes even further that a mere sales decline does not immediately  indicate a drop of population in case of GW2 as opposed to their gametitle. In fact there is a pretty big buffer how much it has to drop to even indicate a decline of population due to to lack of new player influx presenterd by box sales. But is suggested it would do so.

  Jean-Luc_Picard

Elite Member

Joined: 1/10/13
Posts: 2660

There... are... four... lights!

8/15/13 4:25:55 AM#157

Newsflash: the revenue of WoW also dropped after each expansion. Guess why? Simple logic... once people have bought one box for their account, they won't buy 10 more in the next months just for the fun of it.

The only advantage of such silly threads where armchair economists think they know better than what's written clearly in the report, which is "stable GW2", is that it keeps all the trolls in the same place.

Playing now: Archeage, WoW, Landmark, GW2

Top 3 MMORPGs played: UO, AC1 and WoW

Honorable mentions: AO, LotRO and GW2.

"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent" - Qui-gon Jinn. After many years of reading Internet forums, there's no doubt that neither does the ability to write.

  Aeander

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/15/11
Posts: 155

8/15/13 4:28:25 AM#158
Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
Originally posted by SoMuchMass
Originally posted by SpottyGekko

The true test for GW2 will be the next 6-12 months.

Since it launched, GW2 has had no significant competition in the form of new AAA MMORPG launches, so it pretty much has had the playing field to itself.

 

There's been no significant game arrival that has pulled 100's of thousands of players away for 2 or 3 months at a time. But that is about to change...

FFXIV:ARR, Wildstar, ESO, Archeage and EQ:Landmark will most likely all be launching in the next 6-12 months, which will inevitably pull significant player numbers away from GW2. This will impact CS sales the most, and that appears to be GW2's major source of revenue currently.

Agreed 100%.  And I am curious to see how NCSoft treats GW2 after the launch of WildStar.  Even without competition it did drop in sales by a good amount.  Now look at games that you mentioned and the landscape gets a whole lot more competitive.  And to add to that, most of those games will be F2P or B2P.

And you guys really think that the possibly players leaving will be the ones that spend money in the cash shop?

Do you guys really think that every player drops money in the cash shop?

And here's where SoMuchMass's "active player numbers are the measure of success in all business models" argument weakens. The players that quit are those who are the least likely to spend real money on a game's cash shop. Most cash shop purchases come from the dedicated fanbase (both casual and hardcore) that intend to stay with said game. While a minority of the players who bail out of a game may have been potential spenders, the largest concentration of spenders will remain in the game's dedicated crowd in almost any given game. 

 

So no, active players do not measure success (with the sole exception of sub games). Revenue does. In this case, gem shop earnings are the largest indicator of the game's health (and we still don't have these numbers by themselves). 

  stevebombsquad

Elite Member

Joined: 3/20/13
Posts: 590

8/15/13 6:04:52 AM#159
Originally posted by Piechunks

What any intelligent GW2 player should be asking themselves (if they care), is if  this will imply a change in living story content, and/or the release of an expansion.

 

 

It already has. Why do you think they have had a "change of direction?" There is a reason they have moved to a biweekly update cycle. It obviously has been shown to get more people to log in and most likely spend some money in the cash shop. They didn't make a decision like that just because...... 

James T. Kirk: All she's got isn't good enough! What else ya got?

  stevebombsquad

Elite Member

Joined: 3/20/13
Posts: 590

8/15/13 6:13:20 AM#160
Originally posted by Celcius
 

I was right, because I know I am right and you are wrong. So there nee ner nee ner. (What you sound like right now) Funny part is, you are still wrong. Again, GW2 continues to push the bar for content updates, if you consider what they put out EVERY TWO WEEKS "micro content" then you have way higher expectations for MMO updates then reasonable. WoW puts out arguably some of the best content updates, yet it takes 2-3 months for the updates that would take GW2 two weeks and 6 months (raid patches) for the content that would take GW2 a couple of months, if that. I am comparing a much smaller game to a game with an absolutely GIGANTIC budget here as well. You act as though NC Soft gets most of what ArenaNet earns. Funny, I bet the 300 employees at ArenaNet would have something to say about that; considering they still have to get paid (which effects NC Soft's bottom line). 

Here are the facts: NC Soft takes a cut of ArenaNet's profits. In return, they market the game. We don't know how much of a percentage NC Soft earns. 

We know that ArenaNet has probably the biggest MMO company out there at the moment supporting one game. 

We know that ArenaNet is hiring.

We know that every month there are two content patches. One is rather large, the other usually being small. 

We know no one else has a comparable pace for content. We know that even with the smaller size of some of GW2's updates that they compare to some of the bigger MMOs out there. 

We know that NC Soft (Not ArenaNet) profits did not go up this quarter from the funds provided by ArenaNet from their piece of the pie. 

We know that the price has only dropped by 10$ since launch. This usually indicates that sales are good enough to not lower the price. 

You can draw your own conclusions, but it seems pretty obvious to me that they are doing just fine. 

People always bring this up as a sign that everything is okay at a company which isn't necessarily true. Companies will often throw money at an issue and try to fix or improve a product. This is especially true when that product is the sole source of revenue for a company. I know this quite well because this is what happened in my last company. Unfortunately it didn't work out for us until it was too late. ArenaNet also has a high turnover rate and hires lots of contractors as evidenced by employee postings on glassdoor.com.

James T. Kirk: All she's got isn't good enough! What else ya got?

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